Pakistan's Mirage 2000 Saga

[Myth_buster_1]

Over and out for now. Hope I have not caused too much of a storm here.

just few generalizations in your posts and few reality errors but i will give you a thanks for great insight post through BD prospective. and oh not to forget the JF-17 part you analyzed.

 

[M_Saint]

I think this has been a very good discussion but there are in fact, many separate topics being discussed and this has caused some confusion. let me state these topics:

1. Why PAF did not acquire the M2Ks during the 90s.

2. PAF's ability to understand commercial aspects (Mastan Khan's Warrior Mentality Hypothesis)

3. Whether to buy Mirages now, as a supplement to F-16s, JF-17s, FC-20s and legacy types.

4. Whether an aircraft type, that is out of production (particularly a French one), is viable in terms of long-term maintenance, tooling, parts supply and upgrade paths

Now, briefly follow my thoughts on each of these

1. Why PAF did not acquire the M2Ks during the 90s.

I do not know if we all remember the stark years that followed in the post Berlin decade. Pakistan was on a mentality of eating grass and still building nukes. And Pakistan was in deep financial trouble. India, Pakistan's biggest nemesis, meanwhile, was having an immense bit of trouble with keeping its Soviet aircraft operational. So, air power was not as pressing an issue as building strategic weapons against India (such as nukes, missiles, real heavy industries that give Pakistan a relevant industrial base).

Meanwhile, take the case of acquiring aircraft. the only viable alternative for PAF was the M2Ks. As a result, the French wanted way too much money, and when AZ came in as well, PAF had few options but any to call of the deal. 36 Mirages would not have made a difference to Pakistan's Air Defense, particularly given the circumstances of the country and foreign reserves (does anyone remember during Sharif's presidency that Pakistan virtually went bankrupt?)

Mastan Khan's high position misses this, and without getting personal, let me attempt my own analysis as to why. (My apologies in advance Mastan Khan, I mean you no disrespect). He startlingly comes up with the analogy of how, before he came the the US, he didn't see people looking at books to look for solutions to issues. This reminds me most of the typical case of Pakistanis coming to the US and being shocked and awed so much as to build up a psychological barrier resulting in a general inferior outlook when looking at Pakistan (after all, if they had been doing it remotely right, why haven't they reached the level I see here in the US?)

2. PAF's ability to understand commercial aspects (Mastan Khan's Warrior Mentality Hypothesis)

This is an interesting thought. I must venture here that the skill to make good commercial decisions is not part of PAF's training. This is a good point and deserves merit. The problem is, acquisitions are generally supposed to be a Defence Ministry issue (at least originally). Given the lack of faith there, PAF has, over time, been the focal point rather than any bureaucrat. I think everything in Pakistan suffers from this. The lack of commercialization is an immense handicap to Pakistan. Look at Al-Khalid, JF-17, small arms, ammunition, etc. Look Fauji Foundation (what an immensely inefficient organization). You need the financially savy, entrepreneurial types to make things of this nature work. You cannot train people in this, there is no course in the planet, not even in MIT or Harvard that teaches this. In fact, the furthest research in this field suggests that this is only built by factors that cannot be truly replicated:

1. Learning from a young age
2. Direct experience in selling
3. Soft Knowledge passed down from father to son about business

So much so, that top Entrepreneurship programs in the states often have a criteria to look into what experiences you've had to qualify you.

Pakistan, however, do have strong business traditions, in Karachi and in Lahore (more so in Karachi). Specially amongst the Mohajirs. And there is the resource you can tap into (if you have the will and the organizational capacity).

3. Whether to buy Mirages now, as a supplement to F-16s, JF-17s, FC-20s and legacy types.
I will spare no balls here. I believe it would be an extremely foolish move from a strategic perspective. I thought, PAF has truly made a strategic move in going for JF-17s, something which in my opinion is only second in importance to nukes. Getting Mirages would effectively neuter JF-17s, meaning there would not be enough funding for making R&D efforts for block upgrades, enough numbers for economies of scale, and R&D for their eventual replacement.

Make no mistake, this is where traditionally Pakistan has been weak in. This is essentially symptomatic of the fact that Muslims of India and Indians generally, where not allowed to climb up beyond lower officer levels. Our military culture is that of a headless chicken, we've never properly learnt to cultivate strategic thinkers, essential for higher positions in all military offices (as well as civilian, but that's a lost cause at this point). This is why you see the fiascos of 1965 and 71 (from both the P and I sides) of virtually no real generalships, except for the Indians in 71 who actually thought outside the box. Pakistani and Indian forces, virtually at every standoff, prepare themselves across the border to go at each other, without any real strategy or maneuver (or the most basic of concepts that each side already knows the other will perform). No Rommels or Napoleons here. (But the PAF has been lucky here in some of its past leaders).

4. Whether an aircraft type, that is out of production (particularly a French one), is viable in terms of long-term maintenance, tooling, parts supply and upgrade paths

Now, the PAF understands this better than anyone else. They have had older Mirages for a very long time. They have seen all the pains, the ripoffs, the dime and nickeling. Some here are apt to give a comparison of Saabs for PAF AWACS and all kinds of other commercial equipment. But that is missing the point totally. This is because, specialized military hardware like supersonic fighter planes, are not built on standardized equipment. The very nature of such planes means you are stuck with single suppliers for many of your parts. Which means monopoly power. Which means you're going to regret it, particularly if you are not "one of them". And make no mistake, no matter how many times you reiterate that Pakistan is not an "Islamic state", and that you're "just like" Americans, British, etc. With all your clean shaved faces and your brand name clothing, you won't be one of them, and they'll single you out.

Over and out for now. Hope I have not caused too much of a storm here.

PS: I forgot to add, one more point - the cost of maintaining F-16s during the 90s was another cost factor for the PAF to be considered on whether to purchase M2ks

Reading the entire post attentively and seeing some flaws in it, I would like ask you a very important question--

What guarantee do you have that F-solas are definitely coming and you haven't been hooked by 'Fool me twice' theory(http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect...tan/balochistan/why-aren-t-we-acting-now-hs)? Furthermore, what's wrong on buying extra hedge when the first salesman is dishonest and he has ulterior motive to eat you up (http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect...centcom-adviser-sees-pakistan-in-danger--za)? And why do you have to count billion just to assure the availability when need ocurs? Doesn't deal making skill come to play here? Here is a clue, UAE is trying to replace its 63 Mirage 2000-9s by RAFALE. Why don't you try to team it up and bring JF-17's engine, radar issues to blend it up with Mirages RAFALE's upgrade potential. If similar pain of F-Sola exists in Mirage's acquisition then why aren't you looking for something readily available (I.E. Even JH-7A/B or F-8 11 from CHN) to cover your back? I think better to move your back before it gets on overwhelm fire, isn't it?

 

[mhussain]

What guarantee do you have that F-solas are definitely coming and you haven't been hooked by 'Fool me twice' theory(http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect...tan/balochistan/why-aren-t-we-acting-now-hs)?

Brother, thank you for your response. Let me say that I have no guarantees for any body for any thing. I am afraid I do not see where you see me making guarantees for anything

urthermore, what's wrong on buying extra hedge when the first salesman is dishonest and he has ulterior motive to eat you up (http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect...centcom-adviser-sees-pakistan-in-danger--za)?

brother, i would suggest you review these thoughts a bit in your mind and i am sure you will see that everything has, what economists like to call "opportunity cost". This is something you may want to look into, as it will help you analyze everything you look at.

I could not follow the rest of your post too well, but it seems you have some plans on packaging deals and so forth. I am sure the decision makers at the PAF generally look thoroughly at all possible options and then make an honest best attempt at finding the solution that is best for them.

 

[MastanKhan]

Mastan Khan's high position misses this, and without getting personal, let me attempt my own analysis as to why. (My apologies in advance Mastan Khan, I mean you no disrespect). He startlingly comes up with the analogy of how, before he came the the US, he didn't see people looking at books to look for solutions to issues. This reminds me most of the typical case of Pakistanis coming to the US and being shocked and awed so much as to build up a psychological barrier resulting in a general inferior outlook when looking at Pakistan (after all, if they had been doing it remotely right, why haven't they reached the level I see here in the US?)

Mhussain,

I was trying to be polite---but by the age of eighteen, I could overhaul my dad's automibile at our residence----I had enough tools and owners manuals and electronics gadgets in pakistan in the mid seventies that would be the envy of a big local auto repair shop.

I shared my experience of pakistani mentality of not being open to operating manuals ( that was my personal experience ) and I do have a choice to share them---whence an instructor of the position with a phd was open to it. This was just a point to impress upon peolple---to stay within the basics---but then a general inferiority complex and shock and awe conversation coming from you ( atypical pakistani responce when you have a hard time understanding the other person's position)---I would please like you to stop for a moment and think what you were saying.

Your responce was not called for in the manner you posted it---it was purely a pakistani discussion and should have stayed that way unless any technical issues were brought up or an in depth research was done on your part. Seemingly---you just tried to wing your responce and carried on the back of my post. Your post does not comprehend any issues about the coming sanctions upon pakistan during the 80's, as to how many times the congressmen and senators tried to force the sanctions, your post does not answer for the contractual agreemnt between the govt of pakistan and the usofa and keeping general dynaamics out of it----your post has no clue how catastropic the issue of not signing directly with general dynamics became before the sanctions were enforced and after the fact. I believe that you and most other readers are clueless what I am talking about----unless they had read my older posts awhile ago.

You have to have a certain amount of knowledge and background about the issue to understand where I am coming from----just riding piggy back on my posts won't do you any good.

You are not taking into consideration how the enemy intelligence agencies were acting and planning scenarios to make the pakistani f 16 deal fail---then planning to fail the m2k deal in the 90's---why the PAF not stop payment on the deal once the u s govt breached the contract---so that 500 million dollars could be diverted to other procurements----at the end, I would like to know what do you want to say---insults I do get a lot on this board from my pakistani colleagues for being and thinking different---I didnot need any more of them from my brother from my other mother.

 

[MastanKhan]

PC,

Hello good buddy----first of all please talk to some of those paf officers and find out the time frame to make an excellent pilot for a blk 52----you haven't answered that post yet----.

Kiddo---in retail sales I have been for years and as a manager for close to 10 plus years here in the u s of a working for small 5 million dollar businesses to billion dollar enterprises as a manager in auto sales. So please don't impress upon me that I maybe speechless in front of a paf officer---. I will gurantee you that most of them would be what you suggested sitting across from---if I don't have a death threat from them.

 

[mhussain]

Mastan Khan's high position misses this, and without getting personal, let me attempt my own analysis as to why. (My apologies in advance Mastan Khan, I mean you no disrespect). He startlingly comes up with the analogy of how, before he came the the US, he didn't see people looking at books to look for solutions to issues. This reminds me most of the typical case of Pakistanis coming to the US and being shocked and awed so much as to build up a psychological barrier resulting in a general inferior outlook when looking at Pakistan (after all, if they had been doing it remotely right, why haven't they reached the level I see here in the US?)

Mhussain,

I was trying to be polite---but by the age of eighteen, I could overhaul my dad's automibile at our residence----I had enough tools and owners manuals and electronics gadgets in pakistan in the mid seventies that would be the envy of a big local auto repair shop.

I shared my experience of pakistani mentality of not being open to operating manuals ( that was my personal experience ) and I do have a choice to share them---whence an instructor of the position with a phd was open to it. This was just a point to impress upon peolple---to stay within the basics---but then a general inferiority complex and shock and awe conversation coming from you ( atypical pakistani responce when you have a hard time understanding the other person's position)---I would please like you to stop for a moment and think what you were saying.

Your responce was not called for in the manner you posted it---it was purely a pakistani discussion and should have stayed that way unless any technical issues were brought up or an in depth research was done on your part. Seemingly---you just tried to wing your responce and carried on the back of my post. Your post does not comprehend any issues about the coming sanctions upon pakistan during the 80's, as to how many times the congressmen and senators tried to force the sanctions, your post does not answer for the contractual agreemnt between the govt of pakistan and the usofa and keeping general dynaamics out of it----your post has no clue how catastropic the issue of not signing directly with general dynamics became before the sanctions were enforced and after the fact. I believe that you and most other readers are clueless what I am talking about----unless they had read my older posts awhile ago.

You have to have a certain amount of knowledge and background about the issue to understand where I am coming from----just riding piggy back on my posts won't do you any good.

You are not taking into consideration how the enemy intelligence agencies were acting and planning scenarios to make the pakistani f 16 deal fail---then planning to fail the m2k deal in the 90's---why the PAF not stop payment on the deal once the u s govt breached the contract---so that 500 million dollars could be diverted to other procurements----at the end, I would like to know what do you want to say---insults I do get a lot on this board from my pakistani colleagues for being and thinking different---I didnot need any more of them from my brother from my other mother.

Mastan Khan, my apologies to you. I did not mean to offend you for sure. I am not privy to the details of how foreign intelligence agencies managed to make these deals not work, would humbly like to hear about them from you. Also, Pakistan could not buy F-16s directly from GD but had to go through FMS (DCS was not allowed). I am sure others like pshamim can elaborate on why that is better than me. You seem to be privy to a lot of inside information and would be happy to hear you out. I however, find your general approach of looking over PAF's shoulder and with hindsight rather susceptible to reality.

With that, I leave you to discuss this with others as I am not interested in either "piggy backing" your posts nor in convincing you of my views, nor in making this an international matter. Again, let me reiterate that I did not mean to insult you, but I believe my reading of your psyche accurate. My post itself was not directed at you, but at all the major points discussed so far in the thread (or to be more accurate, all the points i thought that were of importance). Happy Posting! (And I don't think the gentleman was threatening you, although you may just be using it as a talking point)

PS: thinking differently is good and kind of relates to what I was saying about thinking out of the box. i don't think anyone holds that against you

 

[MastanKhan]

Mhussain,

You know sometimes it gets tough on this board---I some times get so much beating from my own pakistani brothers---young and old alike that it wears the passion thin. 18---20 year old kids---instead of listening to learn end up rather head butting too often---but thenin the end I realize that they are trying to maintain their status quo---a mind does not want to get hurt---a mind wants to protect itself from painful information---that we believed was true but then later found out was not---our psyche is based on those beliefs.

The funniest part of this stuation between you and me is that when I was a freshman foreign student here in the u s, I had a wonderful person that I befriended at the dormitory that I lived in---a very well informed student of history---son of a wealthy family and a very articulate and astute person. There was a lot of head butting and angry sessions during our discussions and at times I was very protective of my religious and cultural inheritance but that didnot stop me from learing about the view from the other side.

Incidently my good buddy was from bangladesh. I can laugh at the irony at this very moment that after 20 plus years I have almost become like him---and a lots of my little brothers on this board have taken the shape and form of a younger MastanKhan.

I look at PC, notorious eagle, mean bird, and so many others roadrunner and I read their response to my posts and I say to myself----that was me 20 years ago---I would have said the same thing in a similiar manner---I would have torn this guy mastankhan apart. Who does he think he is?.

 

[batmannow]

PAF operates many air crafts including fighters and supporting crafts which production line have been stopped log time ago. Even it is in process to induct SAAB 2000 as AWE&C, IL78/IL76 as air refueller and cargo as as well sister forces are inducting P3, Cobra helicopters, C130 etc which production lines are already stopped long time ago. It is hard choice of life for PAF and sister forces, it is not ideal situation but have to live with it. So Mirage 2K production lines are stopped is a very lame excuse. Though I agree price can be an issue and should be within means of PAF budget and Pakistan. As I said many times JF17s and J10s are right decisions and PAF should stick to it and optimized it as good as possible. But the fate of Pakistani nation should not depend on one nation or its good grace rather we should carefully choose to have multiple options and should never make the same mistake of 80s when PAF was focused one and only for F16s.

Since I started to visiting Pakistan defence forums since 1997, I am and was always in favour of PAF procuring Mirage 2K as in addition of current ongoing projects. During late 90s many used to say, it is no point because we are getting FC1 and J10 soon within few years. And this induction date is continuing extending every years by few years, now current estimate of J17s in 2010 and J10s in 2015. Though I am not very optimistic (judging the current challenges for Pakistan and China regarding these projects) about these recent estimates either because building new fighters take time and we all should give the time it takes to mature. But within this time frame Pakistan was almost dragged into war for three times. God forbid, if it was not international politics (without discussing here much), the consequence for PAF and Pakistan could have been very disastrous (though not a cake walk for enemy either).

BoggedDown; sir

this induction date is continuing extending every years by few years, now current estimate of J17s in 2010 and J10s in 2015.

it seems , you re realy BoggedDown here, dear friend sir!

just wanted to know, what are the sources from you get ,this kind of un confirmed, un acurate info about, J17s in 2010 and J10s in 2015
although, its a waste of space on the fourm, on this unconfirmed thread, but plz dont put , your manipulated likes in place to , just justify the Mirage 2000
it wont gona happen, in this century!

 

[shehbazi2001]

Lets look into this matter from a wider and global perspective.

Taiwan made its local fighter called IDF but still it purchased F-16 and Mirage 2000 fighters. Reportedly Taiwan made a total of 130 IDFs.

India made HF-24 Marut in 1960s and used it in 1971 war but purchased lots of Migs too. Later they also purchased Jaguars. While the Migs served much longer, the local Marut disappeared fairly quickly. Now its LCA is undergoing trails but recognizing the fact that LCA shall fill only the medium tech slot (that too may be partially), they are still inducting modern fighters from developed countries.

China is facing Taiwan and India, both having modern fighters from west and Russia. China developped JF-17, J-10 and some others but they were not enough and china purchased Su-27 and Su-30 from Russia to fill the gap.

Israel developped local copies of Mirage in the form of Nesher and Kfir but they too filled only the medium tech slot and it did not prevent Israel from purchasing latest fighters from USA. Everyone knows about Lavi too.

Now JF-17 is too a medium tech aircraft and the high-tech component is again going to be F-16. I think no one is contesting the importance of indigenous fighters but its the high-tech component that is and has historically remained disputed. Both J-10 and JF-17 are still not completely trouble-free and depend on Russia for powerplants (and weapons).

Keeping in view the fact that even our Thunder is not trouble-free, we must ensure that our high-tech component remains trouble-free. Sourcing of high-tech part from US in shape of F-16s is the reason that upsets many people because the track-record is not that hopeful.

Its the high-tech component that is very important and if they are refused or spare embargoes put in place then it shall again become extremely hard for Pakistan to manage its high-tech fleet.

Yes they can maintain the fleet through other channels but the cost will be more than the spare parts of Mirage 2000 or Rafale. Keeping F-16s operational and purchasing parts for them in times of embargo in 1990s may have cost us more than even the Mirage-2000.

People just compare the initial purchase price but they dont look into the fact that IF embargoes are placed then it would be more costly than french fighters to keep them flight worthy. Yes PAF did maintain the F-16 fleet even in times of embargoes but it can hardly be called “operationally available” as everyone knows that due to shortage of spares, the flying hours had been drastically reduced. Even in the time of war, they could not be used to their full potential.

I think in the article of Kaiser Tufail on Kargil war, he mentioned that the use of F-16s was curtailed due to lack of spares. On the other side, Mirage-2000s of India were in full swing. Perhaps it were these BVR-less and handicapped F-16s that encouraged Indian Air Force to launch relentless operations in Kargil.

 

[HAIDER]

Lets check some historic facts about Qatari Mirage and Pakistan.

India is re-examining the option of buying 12 second-hand French Mirage 2000-5 fighters from Qatar after having shelved their acquisition last year over cost differences.



The Indian Air Force’s (IAF) plans to buy the aircraft - nine single seats and three twin-seat trainers - is part of its “stopgap” plans to reinforce its depleting fighter squadrons, over which IAF Chief Air Chief Marshal S.P. Tyagi had recently conveyed his concern to the government.



The Mirage 2000-5 had been cleared by the Cabinet Committee on Security headed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in March 2005, but quietly abandoned after India’s “embarrassingly low” offer to Qatar.



“The fighters have 80-85 per cent of their operational life intact,” Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee had declared last year. Qatar acquired the French fighters in 1997 and has used them sparingly.



“Pressuring Qatar into selling the Mirage 2000-5 fighters to India appears, in the light of the IAF’s low offer, to have merely been a tactic by India to stop them being sold to Pakistan three years ago,” diplomatic sources said, declining to be identified. The Qataris, he added, felt India was making a mockery of the fighter purchase.



During a visit to Qatar in January 2003, then deputy prime minister L.K. Advani is believed to have told the Qatari authorities that India would be forced to “reconsider” a major gas contract if the Sheikhdom decided to sell the Mirage 2000-5s to Pakistan as it was planning.



Qatar was reportedly under pressure to “dispose of” the aircraft from the US, which had established a major base in the country for the Iraqi invasion and was averse to the presence of French technicians from servicing the fighters. Consequently, Qatar had decided to dispose them off to a Muslim nation like Pakistan.



Pakistan, for its part, was keen on the Qatari offer not only to augment its diminishing air assets but also to try and achieve parity with the IAF’s Mirage-2000 fleet acquired in the late 1980s.



Thereafter, in initial talks India reportedly indicated a willingness to pay around $600 million for the fighters and a host of additional ordnance, including some 500 air-to-air and air-to-surface missiles when Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani visited Delhi in April 2005. But the $375 million offer extended by the IAF delegation that visited Qatar a few months later in June 2005 led to negotiations being terminated.
India again looking at Qatari Mirage fighters,Security Issues, News Analysis, India News Online

Qatar not selling Mirages to Pakistan : Envoy

Qatar has denied it planned to sell Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Pakistan.

“The report is completely false and baseless. It is not serving the interest of our relations with India, which date back over centuries,” said Qatari Ambassador Yousef Hassan Al-Sai.

Media reports had said a dozen French-built Mirage 2000-5 fighters were being phased out of the Qatari Air Force to make way for newer planes. Both India and Pakistan had been approached to purchase the aircraft, the reports said, quoting unidentified sources.

Denying that Qatar had offered the jets to either India or Pakistan, Al-Sai said: “No such talks are in progress.”

The Qatari envoy described bilateral relations with India as being very cordial.

“The Indian community in Qatar is the largest and has been playing an important role in the development of our country,” he said.

As part of efforts to boost bilateral ties, Deputy Prime Minister L. K. Advani is slated to visit the Gulf country, which has the largest reserves of non-associated gas in the world, on January 21-22.

In one of the biggest gas sales agreement, India has committed to purchase five million tonnes of liquefied natural gas from Qatar beginning December with supplies to the Dahej, Gujarat, terminal of Petronet LNG Ltd.

Qatar not selling Mirages to Pakistan : Envoy,Security Issues, News Analysis, India News Online

Do we still have room to blame Zaradari ?...or Pak deal was victim of Indian tactics

 

[mean_bird]

Do we still have room to blame Zaradari ?...or Pak deal was victim of Indian tactics

The blame on Zardari is laid for the Mirage M2K that PAF was negotiating with the french...new ones.

 

[HAIDER]

Is their any link between French Mirage deal and B.C.C.I ?...

 

[mhussain]

Lets look into this matter from a wider and global perspective.

Taiwan made its local fighter called IDF but still it purchased F-16 and Mirage 2000 fighters. Reportedly Taiwan made a total of 130 IDFs.

India made HF-24 Marut in 1960s and used it in 1971 war but purchased lots of Migs too. Later they also purchased Jaguars. While the Migs served much longer, the local Marut disappeared fairly quickly. Now its LCA is undergoing trails but recognizing the fact that LCA shall fill only the medium tech slot (that too may be partially), they are still inducting modern fighters from developed countries.

China is facing Taiwan and India, both having modern fighters from west and Russia. China developped JF-17, J-10 and some others but they were not enough and china purchased Su-27 and Su-30 from Russia to fill the gap.

Israel developped local copies of Mirage in the form of Nesher and Kfir but they too filled only the medium tech slot and it did not prevent Israel from purchasing latest fighters from USA. Everyone knows about Lavi too.

Now JF-17 is too a medium tech aircraft and the high-tech component is again going to be F-16. I think no one is contesting the importance of indigenous fighters but its the high-tech component that is and has historically remained disputed. Both J-10 and JF-17 are still not completely trouble-free and depend on Russia for powerplants (and weapons).

Keeping in view the fact that even our Thunder is not trouble-free, we must ensure that our high-tech component remains trouble-free. Sourcing of high-tech part from US in shape of F-16s is the reason that upsets many people because the track-record is not that hopeful.

Its the high-tech component that is very important and if they are refused or spare embargoes put in place then it shall again become extremely hard for Pakistan to manage its high-tech fleet.

Yes they can maintain the fleet through other channels but the cost will be more than the spare parts of Mirage 2000 or Rafale. Keeping F-16s operational and purchasing parts for them in times of embargo in 1990s may have cost us more than even the Mirage-2000.

People just compare the initial purchase price but they dont look into the fact that IF embargoes are placed then it would be more costly than french fighters to keep them flight worthy. Yes PAF did maintain the F-16 fleet even in times of embargoes but it can hardly be called “operationally available” as everyone knows that due to shortage of spares, the flying hours had been drastically reduced. Even in the time of war, they could not be used to their full potential.

I think in the article of Kaiser Tufail on Kargil war, he mentioned that the use of F-16s was curtailed due to lack of spares. On the other side, Mirage-2000s of India were in full swing. Perhaps it were these BVR-less and handicapped F-16s that encouraged Indian Air Force to launch relentless operations in Kargil.

very good and thought provoking post. If we are to look at the high-tech end, we'd have J-10s, Mirage-2000s and F-16s. Then we have JF-17s, F-7PGs and ROSE Mirages. In my books thats just too many planes. Further, M2Ks will come with their own maintenance equipment and spares logistics train. On top of this, you have to account for buying Micas which are extremely expensive. Don't forget that you have to stock most of this in substantive numbers just to save yourself from sanctions. Given the budget considerations, this seems out of reach.

Remember that Israel, Taiwan and any other example you can come up with are cash-rich economically healthy countries. Pakistan is not. On the other hand, if PAF is willing to accept a 250-300 plane air force then this could become financially viable.

This would greatly reduce expenses! Training pilots, just day to day operational costs, logistics, everything would just cost a lot less. Question is, if PAF and all stakeholders concerned would want this to happen.

All this is also discounting R&D costs to keep present fleet and future JF-17s viable. AND most importantly R&D costs of developing a counter to the future PAKFA and perhaps even the F-35 that India may acquire.

There is a reason that countries that develop their own fighters other than the USA operate a very few types. Taiwan is not a good example at all, most importantly becaue the FCK-1 was a failure in many ways and needed F-16s to make Taiwanese air defense viable. Taiwan's fighter was a resounding failure and is tactically useless beyond Taiwan's own limited use. Taiwan will never likely build another fighter again. The Indian Marut is again another major failure and was seen as such. Let us not compare the JF-17 with aircrafts that failed miserably for what they where designed.

The best way to look at it is to look at Sweden, or France, or Britain. Countries that develop their own fighters. You will find that these countries all produce and operate their own fighters and do not buy fighters from other countries. Would not the French benefit from the F-117? or have F-15s to have complemented their Mirage-2000s during the 80s? Would not Britain have been better off with F-16s to complement their Tornadoes? Tornandoes are hopeless at WVR combat and desperately needed the F-16s as a complement.

And yet all these countries, with far greater financial resources than Pakistan decided to live with what they made. Why? Because even with their great financial strength, their immense economies, they realized it would not be viable to have mutliple types of fighter planes in their arsenal. And we are looking at Pakistan and thinking of supplementing JF-17s with J-10s, and not only J-10s but also F-16s, and not only F-16s but also Mirage-2000s... Truly would not make sense in any way.

JF-17s are now tested by the PAF. From reports there are out there, the PAF has stated that the plane has remarkably few vices. Its not a revolutionary plane that we don't know how it will handle, not only do we know how it handles, the PAF has been able to get comfortable with the plane in record time. The J-10 has been operational with the Chinese for over 8 years now (if not more). Its again not an unknown quantity as to think that tomorrow we'd find some defect in it that would make it a hangar queen. All defects have been kinked out of the plane by now for sure.

So, unless Pakistan can get the M2ks at say, $10 million a pop along with the necessary support equipment and munitions, I really don't think it would be viable at all.

 

[Zob]

firstly MASTAN KHAN sir gr8 going u brought up a point and u stuck 2 it and believed it whole heartedly and i completely support ur point of view that the lost decade of the 90s will cost pakistan dearly however as for PAF ever getting anything from our ARAB friends even if we paying for it no way our only option could have been the Saudis but unfortunately they don't operate any french platform because only Saudi is sincere to our cause....secondly mshussain u have a valid point that PAF will have difficulty handling so many diffrent platforms agreed but my dear friend IAF has many diffrent platforms of its own such as Jaguars,Mirages,Migs,Sukhois.Yes they face a nightmare of spares and what not. however i think JF-17,J10s are going to be more or less similar in terms of spare problems because i hope inshallah china will be our friend forever so the issues of spares and any other type of problem is highly unlikely...as for F-16s well most of our CAS have been EX-F16s pilots and they r just obssesed with that plane. as for Mirages oh well i guess they r still a better platform then pulling out F6s ouit of retirnement....once our JF-17 numbers go up i guess we will just have F16s,JF-17s and J-10s so i don't know what spare issues are you complaining about. And please remember PAF doesn't plan on flying the Mirages forever we are currently cannabalizing the ones we bought from Libya and Australia....and i guess by now we know the Mirages better than the french after all the rebuilding and overhauling....

 

[mhussain]

Just for everyone's info and to clear a confusion, M2Ks are completely different planes from Mirage 3/5s. They do not use the same parts. They are a generation ahead. Any more than JF-17s are going to use F-7 parts..