Pressler Who? [FICTIONAL] Pakistan-India Air Combat 1998-99
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Temporary - the genes have been calling back
5th Oct 1999 @Desert Fox 1
The skirmish at the LoC had only emboldened the resolve of the hawks within the BJP government and Indian Think Tanks to find a "Pakistan Solution" under the impression that having nuclear weapons as a threat would allow them to make Pakistan heel.
More solemn and smarter voices were fighting back citing a known Pakistani nuclear program being reactivated with intelligence shared from the US stating the Pakistanis might already have a device ready to test.
However, the loss of IAF fighters over Kargil to Pakistani F-16s was causing some concerns on continuing operations even as the Indian Army was making slow but steady gains.
Because one of the Indian fighters was brought down over Pakistani territory the narrative pushed was that the pilot was chasing a Pakistani aircraft that had intruded in Indian airspace when he was brought down by overwhelming odds.
That narrative however was not settling the concerns of both the IA and IAF operating over Kargil until a on-off Harvard lecturer proposed a "lesson" by having the IAF attack two main bases of the Pakistanis. His bold idea was to launch simultaneous timed attacks at PAF Sargodha and PAF Kamra which housed the primary F-16 squadrons armed with AIM-120s which were a concern to the IAF. The attack could be launched in the guise of self defense to reclaim Indian territory and any PAF retaliation quickly deterred with a nuclear threat. It was also surmised that attacking the two premier airbases would also reduce the strength of Pakistani squadrons supposedly earmarked to deliver their nuclear weapon and so reduce the threat to India further.
The idea was initially met by scoff from the more astute moderates but political pressure along with alarm bells from hawks within the IAF and IA that losses were mounting and this might help push Pakistan back completely got nods from the key cabinet members - even if some were unconvinced.
At the behest of the head of Indian Northern Command - two Ammo dumps being used by Pakistan were also added to the list amid protests by the IAF that this would add additional complexity to its plan for the attack and might alert the PAF. However, a newly promoted Air Commodore chimed in with a whisper of an Idea and silence ensued.
The plan was based around a simple diversion but the complex repositioning of aircraft done over a matter of two days required finesse - every repositioning was followed by another to slowly bring the aircraft within their strike radius without amassing them at two airbases. The days prior to zero hour were focused on building up on the LoC to give Pakistan the impression that the focus was a more intense air campaign in the north which prompted the PAF to reinforce its Skardu force with 4 Block-32s. At first the plan was an extremely ambitious night strike but with some of the hastily procured French NVGs going faulty it was decided to launch just before the crack of dawn for a ToT of 0515. The Israelis had promised Popeye stand off system but these were to be delivered a month later so it was decided to use Jaguars and their low level penetration ability mixed with Mig-29 and M2k escorts along with some token Mig-23MLDs . Since their range was fairly limited the Mig-23s would drop off halfway over the LoC perpendicular to the strike force direction making the Pakistan ADGE think additional targets were in play.
The plan was to hit both Mushaf and Sargodha from a northern approach - using a diversionary marshalling point right behind IAF forces in Kargil and masked by Nunkun. The anticipated impact of this was to make the PAF think an all out steamroller action was about to happen in Kargil and force interceptors north.
6 Mirage 2000's were positioned at Leh armed with ARMAT missiles for SEAD escorts and would join their respective strike groups for a ToT of 0540 hours.
The Sargodha Package would orbit near Nunkun while the Kamra package approached its ingress into Pakistani territory with both pushing simultaneously.
The PAF had received intelligence that something was afoot and had increased its CAPs and E-2 patrols along with alert fighters but was expecting a massive offensive on PA positions at Kargil and supporting facilities up north.
5th Oct 1999 4:30 Hrs:
As day was about to break there was PAF activity but the IAF plan had catered for this and the first diversionary CAP of a Mig-21 bison and Mig-29C would take up positions near Srinagar.
Further south, an A-50 patrolled providing a view into Pakistan knowing full well that a E-2 Hawkeye was also looking inside India. The green light was given and the first elements of the strike packages started rolling off Sirsa.
As the strikes started taking off in full force including assets from Leh the PAF picture built up and caused some consternation. The PAF presence in GHQ huddled quickly with the Army leadership and the assumption was made that this was a massive offensive campaign being directed at the LoC.
This led to PAF caps being diverted up north with orders to engage any aircraft crossing the LoC. In the PAF's mind it was to face some intense aircombat along that front line but unknown to them they were falling into the ruse.
However, as the PAF CAPs positioned themselves the IAF flight turned for its true target with both the Kamra and Sargodha packages pushing south. The changed picture caused panic within AHQ as the north CAPS were tasked to intercept post haste.
As the package pushed in the PAF was still scrambling standby F-16s and F-7s when the Mirage 2000's that had been positioned at LEH were first to fire their ARMATs at a Crotale site outside of Kamra
Meanwhile, the escorts for the Kamra group found themselves still outgunned by the F-16 block 40s of 11sq which lobbed AIM-120As at them and took 2 Mig-29Cs out without much ado.
However, with 8 of them facing off against 2 F-16s the IAF aircraft eventually cleared out the Pakistani CAPs trying to intercept them but not before another Mig-29 was taken out.
The ARMAT found its mark but as additional Pakistani interceptors took off and started engaging the IAF targets the M2K strike group decided to jettison its load to avoid AIM-120s and story of attacking Kamra was over.
However, their escorts continued to engage 4 F-7s that had been sent to intercept them and a combination of R-530 shots coupled with AA-10s made quick work of the hapless Pakistani interceptors.
Further east however, the 12 Jaguar ISs kept heading towards Sargodha as their escorts engaged the lone CAP of F-16 Block 32s in the area. A small furball ensued but the escorts were eventually victorious.
However, the SEAD escort of the IAF failed to hit its target of a HAWK battery guarding Sargodha and it took its toll on the IAF Jaguar and M2k escort flight.
That did not deter the Jaguars from dropping their load of BAP-100 anti-airfield weapons and 1000lb GP bombs at the Runway, intersection and shelters taking out 4 F-16s sitting outside of their Hardened shelters in the open.
The IAF flights then existed post haste with 2 Mirage 2000s that decided to fly straight back to India falling prey to a Crotale battery near Rawalpindi.
While Kamra remained unscathed, Sargodha had only one operational runway and severe damage to taxiways and ancillary buildings after the attack. The IAF also felt it had bested the PAF In air combat since it held local air superiority throughout the egress of its aircraft.
The impact within the Pakistani government was of shock as they had not anticipated such an escalation. The PM was panicking and calling the US President to leave messages of assistance while the Army leadership now using their regional hotlines to the opposite side to suggest a ceasefire.
However, they were also planning to hit back at India and various options were being studied including a limited combined offensive across the IB. The lack of cohesive leadership was looking to cost Pakistan crucial time and certain generals were suggesting a removal of the PM and rapidly testing a nuclear weapon right after.
Comment: The AMRAAM is still a wonder weapon and changes the face of combat and their threat causes strike fighters to need to jettison their load to evade it which pretty much aborts a mission.
The Mig-29/M2k combo is the most effective to kill F-16s.
LOSSES India:
-------------------------------
2x Jaguar IS
2x MiG-27M Flogger J
3x MiG-29 Fulcrum A
2x Mirage 2000-5EDA
4x Mirage 2000H
Total = 13 Aircraft
LOSSES Pakistan:
-------------------------------
2x F-16C Blk 32 Falcon
4x F-16C Blk 32 Falcon(on ground)
2x F-16CG Blk 40 Falcon
2x F-16CG Blk 40 Falcon
2x F-16D Blk 32 Falcon [Peace Bridge]
3x F-7P Airguard
3x Anza Mk2 MANPADS [Cargo]
9x Infantry Section [7.62mm MG/Unguided Infantry Anti Tank Weapon] [Cargo]
1x Radar (China YLC-2V)
5x Runway Access point
1x2000m Runway
4x Aircraft Shelter
Total= 15 Aircraft
@Joe Shearer In case you arent aware of the shenanigans
The skirmish at the LoC had only emboldened the resolve of the hawks within the BJP government and Indian Think Tanks to find a "Pakistan Solution" under the impression that having nuclear weapons as a threat would allow them to make Pakistan heel.
More solemn and smarter voices were fighting back citing a known Pakistani nuclear program being reactivated with intelligence shared from the US stating the Pakistanis might already have a device ready to test.
However, the loss of IAF fighters over Kargil to Pakistani F-16s was causing some concerns on continuing operations even as the Indian Army was making slow but steady gains.
Because one of the Indian fighters was brought down over Pakistani territory the narrative pushed was that the pilot was chasing a Pakistani aircraft that had intruded in Indian airspace when he was brought down by overwhelming odds.
That narrative however was not settling the concerns of both the IA and IAF operating over Kargil until a on-off Harvard lecturer proposed a "lesson" by having the IAF attack two main bases of the Pakistanis. His bold idea was to launch simultaneous timed attacks at PAF Sargodha and PAF Kamra which housed the primary F-16 squadrons armed with AIM-120s which were a concern to the IAF. The attack could be launched in the guise of self defense to reclaim Indian territory and any PAF retaliation quickly deterred with a nuclear threat. It was also surmised that attacking the two premier airbases would also reduce the strength of Pakistani squadrons supposedly earmarked to deliver their nuclear weapon and so reduce the threat to India further.
The idea was initially met by scoff from the more astute moderates but political pressure along with alarm bells from hawks within the IAF and IA that losses were mounting and this might help push Pakistan back completely got nods from the key cabinet members - even if some were unconvinced.
At the behest of the head of Indian Northern Command - two Ammo dumps being used by Pakistan were also added to the list amid protests by the IAF that this would add additional complexity to its plan for the attack and might alert the PAF. However, a newly promoted Air Commodore chimed in with a whisper of an Idea and silence ensued.
The plan was based around a simple diversion but the complex repositioning of aircraft done over a matter of two days required finesse - every repositioning was followed by another to slowly bring the aircraft within their strike radius without amassing them at two airbases. The days prior to zero hour were focused on building up on the LoC to give Pakistan the impression that the focus was a more intense air campaign in the north which prompted the PAF to reinforce its Skardu force with 4 Block-32s. At first the plan was an extremely ambitious night strike but with some of the hastily procured French NVGs going faulty it was decided to launch just before the crack of dawn for a ToT of 0515. The Israelis had promised Popeye stand off system but these were to be delivered a month later so it was decided to use Jaguars and their low level penetration ability mixed with Mig-29 and M2k escorts along with some token Mig-23MLDs . Since their range was fairly limited the Mig-23s would drop off halfway over the LoC perpendicular to the strike force direction making the Pakistan ADGE think additional targets were in play.
The plan was to hit both Mushaf and Sargodha from a northern approach - using a diversionary marshalling point right behind IAF forces in Kargil and masked by Nunkun. The anticipated impact of this was to make the PAF think an all out steamroller action was about to happen in Kargil and force interceptors north.
6 Mirage 2000's were positioned at Leh armed with ARMAT missiles for SEAD escorts and would join their respective strike groups for a ToT of 0540 hours.
The Sargodha Package would orbit near Nunkun while the Kamra package approached its ingress into Pakistani territory with both pushing simultaneously.
The PAF had received intelligence that something was afoot and had increased its CAPs and E-2 patrols along with alert fighters but was expecting a massive offensive on PA positions at Kargil and supporting facilities up north.
5th Oct 1999 4:30 Hrs:
As day was about to break there was PAF activity but the IAF plan had catered for this and the first diversionary CAP of a Mig-21 bison and Mig-29C would take up positions near Srinagar.
Further south, an A-50 patrolled providing a view into Pakistan knowing full well that a E-2 Hawkeye was also looking inside India. The green light was given and the first elements of the strike packages started rolling off Sirsa.
As the strikes started taking off in full force including assets from Leh the PAF picture built up and caused some consternation. The PAF presence in GHQ huddled quickly with the Army leadership and the assumption was made that this was a massive offensive campaign being directed at the LoC.
This led to PAF caps being diverted up north with orders to engage any aircraft crossing the LoC. In the PAF's mind it was to face some intense aircombat along that front line but unknown to them they were falling into the ruse.
However, as the PAF CAPs positioned themselves the IAF flight turned for its true target with both the Kamra and Sargodha packages pushing south. The changed picture caused panic within AHQ as the north CAPS were tasked to intercept post haste.
As the package pushed in the PAF was still scrambling standby F-16s and F-7s when the Mirage 2000's that had been positioned at LEH were first to fire their ARMATs at a Crotale site outside of Kamra
Meanwhile, the escorts for the Kamra group found themselves still outgunned by the F-16 block 40s of 11sq which lobbed AIM-120As at them and took 2 Mig-29Cs out without much ado.
However, with 8 of them facing off against 2 F-16s the IAF aircraft eventually cleared out the Pakistani CAPs trying to intercept them but not before another Mig-29 was taken out.
The ARMAT found its mark but as additional Pakistani interceptors took off and started engaging the IAF targets the M2K strike group decided to jettison its load to avoid AIM-120s and story of attacking Kamra was over.
However, their escorts continued to engage 4 F-7s that had been sent to intercept them and a combination of R-530 shots coupled with AA-10s made quick work of the hapless Pakistani interceptors.
Further east however, the 12 Jaguar ISs kept heading towards Sargodha as their escorts engaged the lone CAP of F-16 Block 32s in the area. A small furball ensued but the escorts were eventually victorious.
However, the SEAD escort of the IAF failed to hit its target of a HAWK battery guarding Sargodha and it took its toll on the IAF Jaguar and M2k escort flight.
That did not deter the Jaguars from dropping their load of BAP-100 anti-airfield weapons and 1000lb GP bombs at the Runway, intersection and shelters taking out 4 F-16s sitting outside of their Hardened shelters in the open.
The IAF flights then existed post haste with 2 Mirage 2000s that decided to fly straight back to India falling prey to a Crotale battery near Rawalpindi.
While Kamra remained unscathed, Sargodha had only one operational runway and severe damage to taxiways and ancillary buildings after the attack. The IAF also felt it had bested the PAF In air combat since it held local air superiority throughout the egress of its aircraft.
The impact within the Pakistani government was of shock as they had not anticipated such an escalation. The PM was panicking and calling the US President to leave messages of assistance while the Army leadership now using their regional hotlines to the opposite side to suggest a ceasefire.
However, they were also planning to hit back at India and various options were being studied including a limited combined offensive across the IB. The lack of cohesive leadership was looking to cost Pakistan crucial time and certain generals were suggesting a removal of the PM and rapidly testing a nuclear weapon right after.
Comment: The AMRAAM is still a wonder weapon and changes the face of combat and their threat causes strike fighters to need to jettison their load to evade it which pretty much aborts a mission.
The Mig-29/M2k combo is the most effective to kill F-16s.
LOSSES India:
-------------------------------
2x Jaguar IS
2x MiG-27M Flogger J
3x MiG-29 Fulcrum A
2x Mirage 2000-5EDA
4x Mirage 2000H
Total = 13 Aircraft
LOSSES Pakistan:
-------------------------------
2x F-16C Blk 32 Falcon
4x F-16C Blk 32 Falcon(on ground)
2x F-16CG Blk 40 Falcon
2x F-16CG Blk 40 Falcon
2x F-16D Blk 32 Falcon [Peace Bridge]
3x F-7P Airguard
3x Anza Mk2 MANPADS [Cargo]
9x Infantry Section [7.62mm MG/Unguided Infantry Anti Tank Weapon] [Cargo]
1x Radar (China YLC-2V)
5x Runway Access point
1x2000m Runway
4x Aircraft Shelter
Total= 15 Aircraft
@Joe Shearer In case you arent aware of the shenanigans
Military Simulation - The Indo-Pak conflict - A hyperbole
Sir, please allow me to disagree, my experience says otherwise. Couldn't agree with you more, hence why they, and their agenda, should be exposed! Well Information warfare is a reality that can not be argued against. so here we are.
defence.pk
Joe Shearer
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I read the whole exercise through very carefully, and it is both very disturbing as well as somewhat reassuring.
The present political leadership is cowardly; outwardly bullying and aggressive, but displaying precisely that paradox of behaviour where bluster covers fear and anxiety that is revealed in a crisis. Whatever reservations a liberal, constitutionalist Indian might have about the Vajpayee government, it is accurate to say that there has been a serious degradation of political principle and practice since then. This is a mongrel version of that.
The military leadership had also decayed. It is not clear if there has been some stabilisation subsequently, but what was on display during the last exchange between the two airforces was distressing for any Indian to see and to interpret. This is not Tipnis' Air Force.
@T90TankGuy
@T90TankGuy
Reference our brief discussion. Ironic, isn't it?
Joe Shearer
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@SQ8
The reconstruction (in part) and the graphics used are awesome.
I understand, without seeking confirmation that will most likely be withheld for obvious reasons, that some of the initial manoeuvering over Kargil and IAF air support to the Indian Army are closely patterned on actual events, barring the creative air-to-air encounters.
The reconstruction (in part) and the graphics used are awesome.
I understand, without seeking confirmation that will most likely be withheld for obvious reasons, that some of the initial manoeuvering over Kargil and IAF air support to the Indian Army are closely patterned on actual events, barring the creative air-to-air encounters.
Perhaps you should peek at the other thread whose link I posted for clarity on where it all stems from.
I just add poorly written narrative for the sake of background otherwise the focus is on seeing these assets react and respond in a simulation
Joe Shearer
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I shall certainly look at it.
How I wish that Nilgiri, and I, had the benefit of your guidance when we were trying to pick through some of the earlier events, real ones this time, with a very clear-sighted analyst of military history, @PanzerKiel. Our diagrams and graphs were so poor compared to what I was shocked to see in your post.
That they are - because it gives a good starting point to a scenario
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Raja Porus
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Almost 15 F16s lost that too before the war. Why add that Paksitan placed an additional order of 18-24 F16s in case of emergency or war attrition?
Also, will you follow this buildup with ground incursion/skirmishes?
Wouldn't a PAF without BVR against IAF, just like in Kargil be another interesting scenario?
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