Pakistan's Mirage 2000 Saga

[IceCold]

i have decided not to trust any of mastankhan's posts regarding PAF issues----- he acts like he knows better then the PAF----- and if you dont listen to him---- you are a delusional PAF fanboy----- and some bogus calims he like to make are such as----- PAF needs 5-10 years with F-16 in order to fully develop combat tactics----- and rest are pretty much laugh able.....

He has a point. We are left far behind in terms of technology and only now have we realized this and have started to upgrade our conventional capabilities but the lost time cannot be regain within days, it takes time. Just take the example of a BVR capability. When did India first inducted this capability and then compare this with ours and the time span required.

 

[Myth_buster_1]

He has a point. We are left far behind in terms of technology and only now have we realized this and have started to upgrade our conventional capabilities but the lost time cannot be regain within days, it takes time. Just take the example of a BVR capability. When did India first inducted this capability and then compare this with ours and the time span required.

Maybe from 1990-2000 pakistan mainly trusted in there nukes deterrence and believed India was never gonna attack us? and actually thought of saving some money for indigenous industry and future proquirement which should be par to that time of technology. something that mastankhan fails to comprehend is that PAF has limited budget and the mirage deal would have only taken care of BVR business while their would be little or no money for aging 200-300 fighters fleet replacement.
i think its more worth to have a strong indigenous fleet of 300 JF-17 with BVR capability then 30-40 Mirage-2000 which would have costed just as much but would have been available much earlier.
latest news reveals the actual cost of JF-17 program which is 10-13 million dollars per unit for PAF and 3-4billion dollars for the whole program.

 

[mean_bird]

1. Mirage 2000 deal for 32 copies had actually climbed to $4 billion. Had PAF agreed agreed, it would have paid an astronomical price which was actually inflated by over $1 billion dollars over already an inflated price of $100 million per aircraft.

Shamim saheb, If I am not mistaken the cost was actually $3.2 billion (or maybe 3 billion) if you could do a down payment but rose to $4billion if on installments. Am I right?

i have decided not to trust any of mastankhan's posts regarding PAF issues----- he acts like he knows better then the PAF----- and if you dont listen to him---- you are a delusional PAF fanboy----- and some bogus calims he like to make are such as----- PAF needs 5-10 years with F-16 in order to fully develop combat tactics----- and rest are pretty much laugh able.....

I wouldn't do that if I were you. MastanKhan is a senior member so he surely knows a thing or two. But different people have different opinions. The beauty of a good debate or discussion is everyone throws in his/her arguments and in the end everyone learns a bit.

He has a point. We are left far behind in terms of technology and only now have we realized this and have started to upgrade our conventional capabilities but the lost time cannot be regain within days, it takes time. Just take the example of a BVR capability. When did India first inducted this capability and then compare this with ours and the time span required.

Oh, I am not doubting his point. But from my point-of-view (and thats my opinion), his post does not take into account the financial aspect. If he does, than I would surely like to be enlightened and could possibly agree with him.

See we all know that keeping up with the latest technology is quite essential. I am not claiming that "its the man that matters, etc ". There is not an iota of doubt that we need hi-tech equipment and neither would it be true if I said the M2K was not a good platform. If you can get it cheap, I won't waste a damn second.

But getting 32 aircraft at $4 billion is another story altogether. Remember, our foreign reserves were like what.... $1.5 - 2 billion at max? thats like saying making a purchase of $20 billion in today's term. So the question is : Did we have that kind of money? Surely if we had gone for that, probably other things would have to be sacrificed.

In a cost-benefit and opportunity cost analysis, would 32 fighters would have been better if we had to sacrifice our missile program? would 32 fighters would have been better if we had to sacrifice say a sub-marine purchase? I don't think so but that's my view. Yes our airforce today is weak, but our other forces are much stronger as a result. I know you need to keep a balance, but most air threats have so far been avoided and would also be avoided in the near future.

If someone can throw in a better argument, I could change my views but in my opinion, going for 32 aircrafts for $4billion would not have been a smart idea albeit providing temporary and short term benefit.

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi PC,

How are you? What is good for the goose maynot be good for the gander. My word is not the final. You make your own deductions from what you can analyze---but if there is a contradiction then tell us what it is and how you reached it.

So what time frame do you think it would take to develop a pilot on a blk 52 to reach his full potential----let us leave and forget blk 52----let us come down to F7PG---technically not as capable plane---let us know how much time does it take a nascent member of the flying force to reach maturity.

There is an age old saying----the husband is the last one to find out that his wife is screwing around----same is the case with PAF since the last 20 years---as a matter of fact in the mid late 80's they became sort of a joke amongst some journalist in the u s ---paf knew about the looming sanctions but still decided to pay up front for the planes---

Let me put it this way----if you were the owner of a multi billion dollar conglomerate---and there was a deal made by your general manager that would end up destroying you and your capital if it went sour--what would you do to that person----now the worst part is once the deal went sour---your GM still kept on paying wishing that things might change----and the most tragic part of the game is that your decision maker went into the deal with feet first---.

I don't have a problem with you chewing my behind up---but put in your thoughts and research how it would be otherwise---like the pilot time frame.

 

[notorious_eagle]

The 1990's was a lost decade for PAF, i think nobody here doubts that. But mean_bird is right, it simply does not makes sense to pay $100 million for M2K's. Also keep in mind a lot of resources were diverted to JF17 program and developing ballistic and cruise missiles. I can tell you one thing forsure and that is if PAF would have gone for M2K's, there is no way we would have developed JF17 with China. As usual we would have just relied for foriegn technology instead of investing in our domestic industry.

 

[Myth_buster_1]

Now why was m2k the perfect match for paf----first of all paf already had an infrastructure for the mirage 3/5 rebuild---paf knew this plane inside out---listening to ex---fighter jocks on this board---I see that quite a few had first hand experience in flying and maintaining the m2k in qatar / uae---so what does that mean---in simple words---we already had a fighter wing ready to go into business right from the day one---does anyone disagree with that.

You still don't get it---now do you----in two years time pakistan will have nothing---BLK 52's---what do you think---you jump into the seat and you just start rocking and rolling---it will take another 3 to 5 years from that time onwards for PAF to have competent pilots to take on competition at a similiar level----PAF pilots would need at least 10 years of intensive training to compete with the high end IAF---that meaning IAF doesnot procure anything new.

so what do we have here now------ so according to you----- PAF will have no problem with rocking and rolling Block52 equivalent M2K5 but needs 5-10 years to "develop competent pilots" and "intensive training to compete with the high end IAF" for new F-16s???
aye aye SIR!
dammm.. what was PAF thinking!

 

[araz]

Mods
We need to continue this good debate on a separate thread as the matter needs to be discussed fully.Could you please move the relevant posts to a new thread.
Araz

 

[araz]

I am really enjoying the M2 K debate. My friend mastan khan has a valid point with regards to capability but i think , the problem was that we did not have the finances to honour the deal. i have to say that cutbacks have been taken on various deals beforeand this would not have been the first time. However, the price with the cutbacks became prohibitive and in the end, i think sanity prevailed and PAF bailed out.
The point Mastan Khan has raised about upgrading to rafale is again a thought but an expensive one which we can not afford. So with all due respects to his sagacity, even if we had bought M2 Ks in the 90s we would have still be in the same situation with no Thunder, perhaps no j10 and being held hostage to the french instead of the Americans. You can find ample evidence of this in the way the french do their deals.
The point of prevention of war has come up. It is my humble opinion that the prospects of a Nuclear war is the major factor preventing engagements of the 2 sides.There is evidence odf it i 2002 and again last year. We know, that although PAF would have given a good account of itself, there would have been a telling technological disadvantage on both the occasions.
In many ways it has been a blessing in disguise that PAF has decided to develop capabilities inhouse and go down the routew of thunder. This is the best possible outcome of all from all the sanctions. there are no friends in international relations, it is a question of what interests cause you to side up with which party. There is a lot of myth about the impartiality of the french, however i would most humbly point out that the french held on to the Rose upgraded Mirages till hostilities between Indo -Pak subsided. This is not a situation that I would like to see PAf ever being in again and the answer is Thunder and FC20.
WaSalam
Araz

 

[Munir]

I disagree with getting MK2000-9. The plane is being replaced by the producer itself. Are you gonna pay for spare parts like you did for Mirage3/5? The French are good in pressing you clean. The fueltanks of the Mirage 3/5 are made of rubber. PAF had to pay the same amount for that rubber as it was buying gold by only looking at the weight... The delta had its time. We need either canarded delta (FC20) or something like JF17. Not another outdated tool with sparepart problem. And looking at the price... You know how many JF17 or FC20 you can get for that? We were the dump for decades if western powers got new planes. We cannot afford to be the dump. Not because you pay the same for getting new planes but if you buy outdated planes you second to every one. And that my friend is something we know cause while the rest of the world got BVR, AWACS, IFR and new planes we played with scooters like F7P...


The remark as if these MK2-9 are plug and play... Wake up. It is a delta. Compared to Mirage 3/5 is is whole new generation. New systems. You have nothing you can use for this version. Would you do that for just half a squadron with closed production line? Thank God PAF is smarter.

 

[M_Saint]

Bhai! will you pay $90 million for a 12 year old airframe with 12 year old engines and 12 year old capabilities. Mirage-2000 is a wonderful aircraft but does it have AESA or DRFM which F-16 Block-50/52 will not have either. What F-16s come with are the latest and uptodated equipment and a brand new airframe at a cheaper price.

Your post indicates that you believe that Mirages will come with AESA and DRFM. Is that true. Do you feel spending that kind of money on an old aircraft is a "strategic brilliance" I personally like the aircraft but not at that price.

I also prefer PAF to diversify and start distancing away from US. But F-16s are great machines. One more thing I will like to stress is the man-machine relationship. By simply acquiring a new aircraft does not mean that it will provide you 100% of its potential capabilities. PAF pilots have been flying them for last 26 years and know every little secret and every trick to get the best out of it. Even if India opts to buy them, it will take them years before they can master it. But by then world would have moved ahead of them.

No one has offered JSF to India ahead of JSF partners. It is only if India acquires F-16 first and then buy JSF in future.

That is all Lockheed talk. I ought to know. I was part of the Business Development team at General Dynamics before it was acquired by Lockheed Martin.

Please reconsider the reasons for why PAF did not go for Qatari and UAE Mirages. I am sure Pakistan will buy these Mirages in a heartbeat if price is right and they could form Pakistan Navy/Pakistan Air Force Fighter squadrons. I consider them to more potent as ground support or Naval support roles.

Honarable Shamim Bhai,

Please note that Quatar initially asked $500.00 Mil for its 12 fighters and IND got it hooked by offering $375 Mil. Moreover, IND deceived its critics on over payment issue by making Quatari Amir to agree on adding 500 missiles (India looking again at Qatari Mirage fighters | Canada Updates) on that deal but not agreeing to pay anything more. From the beginning, IND gave an impression that it was dead serius but its main objective was to thwart/pre-empt PAK from getting them. After its successful manuever, IND started its natural treachery by throwing spanners to iritate seller, so the seller got pissed off. Where was GOP at that time and why didn't it jump on the gun? If PAK even got them by $400 Mil along with missiles then each unit would cost around $ 37 Mil. Later it could give them RAFALE's upgrade (Thale's RBE-2 AESA, DFRM etc) for another $13 M that would raise the cost around $ 50 Mil each.

Now coming back to UAE's Mirage. Those are already in 2000-9's standards and all 63 Mirages could very well be got for less than $3 Bil since UAE has purchased+upgraded them for $3.2 Bil (AFP: UAE eyes France's Rafale fighter). So, whole 75 (12+63) Mirages with with AESA +DFRM+Structural upgrade could be acquired by less or similar prices of F-Solas ($3.5 Bil Total ) without having extermely painful string of innocent's live's attached. Furthermore, for the delivery you didn't have to wait until 2011 either.

IMO, delay on signing or acquiring J-10 with its current form is showing similar pattern of complacency/non-seriousness by PAFers too. If engine is an issue then join in SCO, you will autometically come to CHN, RUSS's protectorate umbrella. Simultaeniously work on integrating Muslim forces. With 'Oil Rich' Middle Easterns, TURKEY and Malysia; It could be a good start. Where is the effort in that regard? Making AF SAR capable doesn't require astronomical amounts. So, why not pursuing that route, especially when your existence is on stake?

The reason behind telling you all these is to show you PAK's strategic impotence. Secondly I said ISRO (Means Israel) got 'Off the shelf' delivery and decided to acquire JSF without joining its developing scheme. OTH its blackmailing of U.S with sheer cunningness continued unabetted but what PAK got in return of making U.S lone super power and shedding its soldier/inhabitent's blood? My point is 'Art of negotiation/deception/treachery' needs to rigorously be practiced by us. From the moral point of view, its OK since we haven't started it and application of porportionate force is legal for defence.

 

[saiko]

I would avoid French anything at this point.

They are very desperate to get anyone to buy the Rafale and no one is biting... you buy French anything and they are going to nickel and dime you to death over the life of the aircraft to subsidize the Rafale's development.

Plus the government is really hurting for money right now so no help will come from that quarter.

 

[BoggedDown]

I agree whole heartedly with Mastan Khan about his proposal about Mirage 2Ks. Though in my opinion PAF should have acquired those birds in 80s along with F16s. France had offered Mirages 2Ks in 80s very cheap as well though they were a bit less capable than F16s in those time. But during 80s Pakistan was in deep "love" with US and thought of never ending "love". The "love" for US was so intense that PAF keep paying for second batch of F16s even those were embargoed on false hope that US would resume delivery. In fact PAF paid about $600m to US for those embargoed planes and in return got wheat and soyabean. Did PAF or Pakistan government ever made any through investigation about this strategic debacle and who to blame for it? In opinion those decision makers should have been shot in public for their miscalculation and "one basket" policy. But 90s were bad time for PAF to order Mirages2Ks as government did not have money (because $600m was stuck in US for ordered F16s which it never received) as well as France tried to took advantage of the situation as PAF did not have much other alternatives. If PAF had the vision (like many air forces to order from multiple sources to minimize risks even for same capabilities, like Taiwan, Greece to name a few who operate both F16s and Mirage200Ks) to procure Mirages in 80s, it would not have been in this situation it was in 90s and even today. They could have smoothly keep updating those in 90s with BVR and even could order more as F16s were not forth coming (I even firmly believe that if PAF had second horses like Mirage 2Ks, US would not have embargoed F16s as it would not have serve any purposes).

Though I salute PAF for initiating projects like JF17s & FC20s but I would again warn not to put all hopes on "China basket" only. No matter how good they are, they lack credibility ( as China is still not known for producing credible fighters and it will take time to earn the credibility) which is very important for detarance. What if after a huge amount of these planes inducted we found some "cripping" bug or for some reason or other relation with China go sour (you never know...).

As I also not in favour of pursuing any hostile policy against US, so in opinion current F16s order is right one and as much of it would be paid with money received from US. But current Obama administration does not look much promising for delivery of them? I would be very relieved if those are delivered as promised.

So, even we got delivery from China and US, I would still prefer to keep at least one option from Europe. For this option the Qatar and/or UAE mirage2Ks would be excellent one as being second hand, I would hope "botherly" price with all accessories and weapons as well as PAF can try a long term payment schedule. The current in house expertise and facilities of PAF from old Mirage III/VI handling should not be let go wasting. So PAF (and PN) should try to use this opportunity if not too much trouble. At least these Mirages should not be acquired by IAF in any situation.

 

[pshamim]

To tell you the truthe you gentlemen make a lot of sense. If you go to pakdef, you will see several of my posts in favour of acquiring UAE and Qatari Mirages.

Problems is that decision are many times made by people who have absolutely no idea as to what is best. That is the reason that Chiefs are selected based on how pliant and weak they are. Recent selected of Air Chief is an example. I had the opportunity of meeting and spending couple of hours with both AM Rashid Latif and AM Rao Qamar together just 4 years ago at Faisal. My thought of who may become the next Chief turned out to be totally wrong.

So figures.

 

[HAIDER]

The government has turned down a grant offer of 10 Mirage 2000 jet fighters from the Qatari government due to a lack of funds for maintenance, Defense Minister Juwono Sudarsono said on Thursday.Juwono said Qatar offered the jets six months ago through Indonesia’s ambassador in Doha. The government needed only to send a letter requesting the aircraft.“I have not sent a letter,” Juwono said. “But had I sent one, I would have told them that our state budget is focused on infrastructure and improving the people’s welfare.


The military’s procurement of equipment must give way to those programs.”Stopping short of disclosing maintenance costs for currently operated aircraft, Juwono said that the military’s budget did not allow for maintaining additional planes. The Air Force was tempted by Qatar’s offer, Juwono said, but “I have told them that it is the maintenance costs that made us think twice about accepting the offer.”The minister said there was no guarantee that French company Dassault Aviation, the maker of the Mirage fighters, would maintain its position in the international aviation industry in light of the current global recession.


“We do not want equipment that cannot be used for the long term,” he said.Juwono said instead of acquiring more weaponry, the government had decided to focus on obtaining the best military technology. He said the recent purchases of Russian Sukhoi jet fighters and transport-attack helicopters, along with four Sigma-class corvettes, would help modernize the country’s military.

Do we still have chance through counter offer for these plane ?

 

[notorious_eagle]

We dont need these planes, all of PAF's resources are focussed on JF17 and J10.