Pakistani Indian showdown inevitable in Afghanistan?

[RobbieS]

Asim, Gazzi-I think you guys are getting a little ahead of yourselves here. To much extrapolation there.

Your perspectives and future scenarios about India's increased presence in Af are based on what India did in BD and may be SL (though there's no proof of that). But Af is no BD. Its a freakin nightmare. Its worse than Vietnam. Hell, it has burnt two superpowers. India is smart enough to limit its presence to a level that it can control. Financial and developmental help is one thing, training troops and running military ops on the ground is another. Even if we believe for a moment that India is running covert ops over there, getting involved militarily will blow the lid off the cover, completely.

And may be I am wrong, but from what I gather from your views above is that you've exaggerated two things there-
1. India's designs on Pakistan
2. The West's influence on India

 

[Awesome]

Asim, Gazzi-I think you guys are getting a little ahead of yourselves here. To much extrapolation there.

Your perspectives and future scenarios about India's increased presence in Af are based on what India did in BD and may be SL (though there's no proof of that). But Af is no BD. Its a freakin nightmare. Its worse than Vietnam. Hell, it has burnt two superpowers. India is smart enough to limit its presence to a level that it can control. Financial and developmental help is one thing, training troops and running military ops on the ground is another. Even if we believe for a moment that India is running covert ops over there, getting involved militarily will blow the lid off the cover, completely.

And may be I am wrong, but from what I gather from your views above is that you've exaggerated two things there-
1. India's designs on Pakistan
2. The West's influence on India

At the very least we know India is already running covert ops from Afghanistan to deadly effect. Even Gates came to India and told them to be transparent with their activities in Afghanistan for Pakistan (Translation, convince Pakistan you're not up to anything wrong).

My argument is like this, if India fails to convince us, we need to attack back. Take out all known Indian intelligentsia assets placed in Afghanistan. By now ISI must have established some rudimentary sense of what is a viable target.

At the very least India's presence in Afghanistan should be destabilized. It is more than likely India will withdraw operations from Afghanistan after that.

 

[H2O3C4Nitrogen]

If the IA is deployed inside afghanistan , it would be in coherence and mutual understandings with the west . More ever people in the US would love to afford the Indian Army deployment rather than face criticism of deploying its own troops and getting boged down, which is expensive also . Currently US gov is spending huge amount of $$s for a single soldier on ground , One might ask that how many Indian soldiers can be afforded within the same cost , It should have been greater than two, If yes than its a fair deal to take the gamble of putting the IA inside afghanistan with almost any kind of Technological and diplomatic support they need , that icludes the intell support as well .
I think the US and Nato will make sure that the Indian supplies and financial aid would keep on flowing through any possible means and through any route . This scenario is threatening for Pakistan . Stratigsts need to work hard now , as things might turn more ugly .. !

 

[H2O3C4Nitrogen]

The single entity which would be rigidly against the indian deployment iside afghanistan would be Pakistan , So inorder to put IA inside Afghanistan the yanks must engage Pakistan through all chanells , millitery aid , economic aid , Diplomatic Bullying or almost any thing they could devise ..!

 

[Spitfighter]

Another thing would be to draw India into a long, bloody and expensive war in Afghanistan against the Taliban. India has been desperately trying to surround Pakistan, it initially would've gone with the Iranian, AF base option, but putting military in Iran in todays world would draw flak from the US.

As we've seen, the Taliban are unbeatable by COIN operations you need to establish massive control and put in massive resources to Taliban proof Afghanistan. India often boasts around in articles that they have the most experience with COIN.

The idea from Pakistan SHOULD be to hit Indian intelligence operations within Afghanistan as soon as we can. So that Indian strategy in Afghanistan shifts from simple hit and run against Pakistan to formally maintaining a military presence in Afghanistan. This allows for a see-able and quantifiable target for us and only then would we have a chance for that "Indian graveyard" scenario you're talking about.

With all due respect, your post is just a lot of huff and puff. Pakistan will never be in a position to muscle its way around Afghanistan again. The US will do adopt a strategy similar to the one it has in Iraq. The ANA will be strengthened and will gradually take over, the US will sit pretty in multiple fortified bases responding only when called upon.

What this means for Pakistan is that Afghanistan will eventually stabilize and will no longer be subservient to your cause. The US won't make the same mistake it did after the Soviet withdrawal. In either case, India isn't stupid and our agents don't walk around with a flag on their back. India is capable of responding to Pakistan in the same coin, we aren't America and we won't get drawn into battles we can't win. Bleed us out in a war? lol, who says we'll deploy? we'll just hit back. Pakistan is already under tremendous pressure to reign in on its proxies, India will stick around in Afghanistan for as long as possible, Pakistan has no chance of muscling us out anymore.

In either case, if things really go down hill (pre 9/11) India, Iran and Russia will do what they did earlier, i.e back the northern alliance and fight it out with your proxies. There's no way we'll ever send the military to Afg.

 

[Fireurimagination]

If in the future Indian soldiers put foot on Afghanistan then it should be very limited just to get some hold in central Asia. Get a military base, station few aircrafts that's about it. I don't think the Government will repeat the same mistake twice of sacrifing Indian soldiers fighting war of some other country. I think we should be more constructive and less destructive

Help rebuild Afghanistan
Invest in Afghanistan (education and all)
Build bridges of friendship
Train, arm their Army, police whatever
but I definately don't want to see Indian soldiers fighting the Taliban

 

[Spitfighter]

At the very least we know India is already running covert ops from Afghanistan to deadly effect. Even Gates came to India and told them to be transparent with their activities in Afghanistan for Pakistan (Translation, convince Pakistan you're not up to anything wrong).

You don't know that, there's no proof.

Pakistan simply doesn't want India on its western flank, which is what all the fuss is about.

My argument is like this, if India fails to convince us, we need to attack back. Take out all known Indian intelligentsia assets placed in Afghanistan. By now ISI must have established some rudimentary sense of what is a viable target.

If it was that easy and you had undeniable proof, don't you think Pakistan would've done that already? Pakistan can't run riot in Afghanistan, I hope you understand that 40+ nations have a presence in the country so you can't just go around targeting whatever you feel like and not expect any repercussions.

At the very least India's presence in Afghanistan should be destabilized. It is more than likely India will withdraw operations from Afghanistan after that.

How? how will Pakistan do any of what you're suggesting?

@fireurimaination: India isn't going to get sucked into the war.

 

[paritosh]

In a Post 2011 scenario would we see India moving in troops or at least military hardware to Afghanistan?

I think the United States would allow Indian troops to move into Afghanistan and then start withdrawal under the guise of Indian troops managing operations against the Taliban.

The Daily Mail - Daily News from Pakistan - Newspaper from Pakistan



fullstory



Now for a look at how the Indians are thinking...

The Hindu : Opinion / Editorial : The Afghan quandary



India being left out of the mix? I think not! India is not only wriggling itself and its army into Afghanistan but is even in on the whole peace deals with the Taliban.

India softens stand on negotiating with Taliban | Reuters



AFP: India 'could do business' with Taliban: reports



Its a dangerous situation for Pakistan, with a lot of players speaking in hushed tones and lots of nods and winks going around.

Pakistani strategists better be doing their homework, its enemies are surely busy at it.

you know what...it reallygoes against common sense if India does send it's own troops to Afghanistan.
We have the right ph level in Afghanistan with the coalition troops holding the mast...and the Indian money going to the right areas where the development can be felt by ordinary Afghans....
why would we wanna mess things up?It is beautiful already...I am pretty sure no troops would ever land in Afghanistan.

 

[SMC]

You don't know that, there's no proof.

Pakistan simply doesn't want India on its western flank, which is what all the fuss is about.



If it was that easy and you had undeniable proof, don't you think Pakistan would've done that already? Pakistan can't run riot in Afghanistan, I hope you understand that 40+ nations have a presence in the country so you can't just go around targeting whatever you feel like and not expect any repercussions.

Come on kid, we've been over this before. Don't try to act all innocent now. We know that india is involved in mass terrorism from sources within the ISI and the army. It's a matter of when they are exposed now and when they are stopped. We've given the proof to respective parties, however it's not in their interests to stop india so they don't discuss it.

 

[paritosh]

India very rightfully doesn't want to maintain troops for Afghanistan, but does want to keep a spy network open.

We want India totally out, or all the way in. Best strategy would be to start hitting Indians inside Afghanistan where they have no protection. After that either India will leave or draw itself into a long expensive war.

Do you have any idea how many battalions we would pump-in if we were to to war with Pakistan?
no seriously...you can't win the numbers game with us...Kashmir is a good case study into that...regardless of the right and the wrong...we have an iron grip on Kashmir...and plan to do so for a long time to come...
but then...it's an imaginary scenario cus we are happy the way things are...in afghanistan

 

[SMC]

Indians commonly pass misconceptions as "facts", such as Afghanistan being strategic depth for Pakistan against India. Really? Really? How so? Afghanistan was only used by Pakistan to kick out the soviets and support Taliban afterwards (and Taliban had high support). They did not use them against india in Kashmir. Kashmiri freedom fighters were not Afghan Taliban. So in no way did Pakistan use Afghanistan against india.

But GoI relies on this misconception to send intelligence (and possibly military in the future) to Afghanistan. And indian public think they are doing the right thing. Ok, it's none of our business if you're trying to help Afghanis, but the fact of the matter is we know the real reason why you're there, and that reason makes it our business.

 

[Desert Fox]

The problem you all got is that you are speculating something which is opposite to India's stand. We are not sending troops and that is final.
This is being repeated n number of times.

Lol, i would love to see indian troops in Afghanistan! We can burry another empire in the graveyard!

 

[Desert Fox]

Do you have any idea how many battalions we would pump-in if we were to to war with Pakistan?
no seriously...you can't win the numbers game with us...Kashmir is a good case study into that...regardless of the right and the wrong...we have an iron grip on Kashmir...and plan to do so for a long time to come...
but then...it's an imaginary scenario cus we are happy the way things are...in afghanistan

i always knew indians loved it when the blood of innocent Afghans spilled!

 

[Desert Fox]

Who are you???? India and afghanistan are independent countries and pakistan should stop poking its nose in biletral relationship. Pakistan has no role to play and should stop treating afghanistan as its slave state.

lol, look who's talking, the Bharatis! Aren't you the same people who funded Tamil tigers in Sri Lanka? Aren't you the same people who funded and trained Mukhti Bahini in East Pakistan, and today you fund Shanti Bahini! You need to respect other independent nations first!

lol, hey, your hypocrisy is showing!

 

[Always Neutral]

Another thing would be to draw India into a long, bloody and expensive war in Afghanistan against the Taliban. India has been desperately trying to surround Pakistan, it initially would've gone with the Iranian, AF base option, but putting military in Iran in todays world would draw flak from the US.

As we've seen, the Taliban are unbeatable by COIN operations you need to establish massive control and put in massive resources to Taliban proof Afghanistan. India often boasts around in articles that they have the most experience with COIN.

The idea from Pakistan SHOULD be to hit Indian intelligence operations within Afghanistan as soon as we can. So that Indian strategy in Afghanistan shifts from simple hit and run against Pakistan to formally maintaining a military presence in Afghanistan. This allows for a see-able and quantifiable target for us and only then would we have a chance for that "Indian graveyard" scenario you're talking about.

AA,

Even the most fool hardy Indian General knows that unless GOP allows it free entry / exit over Pakistan they can never be a deciding force in Afghanistan. However they can be smart enough to exploit
the tribal strife at 1/100 of the cost.

Pakistan has to factor that in all its future strategy.

Presently India has the upper hand but the roles can easily be reversed if Pakistan can get Mr MO to give up OBL in return for share of the power in Afghanistan.

What say ?

Regards