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Some interesting insights in this 2006 article...
JANE'S DEFENCE WEEKLY - MARCH 22, 2006
COUNTRY BRIEFING: PAKISTAN - PLUGGING THE GAPS
Robert Karniol JDW's Asia-Pacific Editor
Bangkok
While Pakistan's defence strategy has been firmly focused on rival India, various threats undermining internal stability have led the country to re-assess its military capabilities. Robert Karniol reports
* Emerging from US sanctions imposed in 1990, the Pakistani armed forces aim to fill a range of capability gaps
* Tensions with long-time rival India have lessened but New Delhi remains the primary driver for Pakistan's force development
· Three distinct threats are undermining internal stability and prompting the armed forces to enhance further
Pakistan's emergence as an overt nuclear power led to its armed forces establishing a new conventional defence strategy focused on traditional rival India. Other threats have since escalated, undermining internal stability.
India and Pakistan fought three full-scale wars in the post-colonial period and have skirmished almost constantly. The latest significant clash took place in mid-1999 at Kargil, along Kashmir's contentious Line of Control (LoC), and in 2002 a million troops faced each other during a major force mobilisation. Tensions, however, have eased notably in recent years.
A ceasefire has been in place along the LoC since 2003 and is viewed as successful. This has been supplemented by a series of confidence-building measures and, since early 2004, by sluggish peace talks that continue. The catastrophic earthquake of October 2005, centred on Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, also moved rapprochement forward through India's sympathetic response.
India, nevertheless, remains of central concern to Pakistan's armed forces.
"Threat is based on two perspectives: capabilities and intention," said Lieutenant General Tariq Majid, the army's chief of general staff.
"Intention takes no time to change, so it's on the basis of capabilities that you have to proceed with your planning and your strategies. We have to stay alive to the possibility of a conventional threat from India."
Pakistan's security strategy is rooted in maintaining a "minimum" credible deterrent capability and this encouraged Islamabad to launch a covert nuclear weapon programme after India's 1974 nuclear test. This effort's success, revealed in 1998, produced a new perspective in its armed forces on the conventional threat.
"Due to the nuclear forces in India and Pakistan, any conventional war that breaks out will be limited in scope, in extent and in time. It would be extremely intense, but within these three parameters," explained General Ahsan Saleem Hyat, Pakistan's vice chief of army staff.
"We have tailored our doctrine and concepts and employment of forces to this understanding. This is the result of nuclearisation."
Force development in Pakistan is otherwise influenced by two main factors: the need for flexible response capabilities in order to meet aggression at an appropriate level and capabilities allowing for an active defence posture, which includes an offensive response.
Internal conflicts
The potential for conflict with India remains dominant among Pakistan's military leadership thinking, but actual combat operations are focused on addressing three internal security issues: the conflict within Islam; a revived low-level insurgency in Balochistan; and the 'war against terror' centred on the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATAs) along the Afghan border. These are separate problems, though with some overlap.
The military response to Islamic militancy largely involves heightened security conditions and enhancement of counter-terrorism capabilities. Dealing with the Baloch insurgency, which is mainly centred on two of 27 districts, is spearheaded by the paramilitary Frontier Corps, though there is some army involvement. The Frontier Corps' strength in Balochistan is being expanded by 12 wings, for example, while the army's Balochistan Corps has set aside one battalion for specialised training as a reaction force. Two companies from this battalion have completed training and the remaining two have started.
Military activity is more strongly focused on the 'war on terror' in the mountainous FATAs. There are seven FATAs in all but the conflict centres on two of these the agencies of North and South Waziristan: where over 80,000 ground troops are deployed with army helicopters and the air force providing support. This campaign involves developments in structure and capabilities, including the establishment over two years ago of the battalion-plus Special Operations Task Force (SOTF). Capability enhancements under way involve tactical lift through additional helicopters, night-vision devices and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). "We are not fighting America's war in the FATAs. It is in our own interest. We're fighting this war because, unfortunately, there have been fallout effects in Pakistan from the instability in Afghanistan," said Gen Tariq.
Winning the 'war on terror' in the FATAs can be viewed as Islamabad's tactical objective. Military sources say that over 210 foreign militants and Al-Qaeda personnel were killed in February, with a further 700 local and foreign militants arrested. However, there is a strategic objective as well.
The tribal FATAs are unruly and underdeveloped, with a high degree of local autonomy dating back to the British colonial period. Beyond acting against the extended terrorism threat, President General Pervez Musharraf aims to gradually bring them into Pakistan's mainstream. This is a long-term project, with one Islamabad-based analyst saying it may take a generation or two to fully implement, but it is a process seriously started with Pakistan's 'war on terror'.
There are three core requirements driving force development in Pakistan. The armed forces seek to maintain a "minimum" credible deterrent capability and, more immediately, pursue capacity-building for the 'war on terror'. Finally, there is the need to meet organisational and developmental requirements to support Pakistan's substantial commitment to UN peacekeeping operations.
"The government has made serious efforts to improve our economy, and we have to be mindful that this progress on the economic front is not retarded. So affordability is always affected," said Gen Tariq. "We have to prioritise."
Army
The Pakistan Army is re-organising after the completion in 2005 of a comprehensive study focused largely on improving efficiency and the 'tooth-to-tail' ratio. Cost-cutting is another factor. This applies to both conventional and sub-conventional threats, the latter covering counter-terrorism operations and low-intensity conflict. Over 50,000 personnel have been trimmed from 550,000 by suspending recruitment and attrition through normal retirement. Existing units are also being brought up to strength, mainly by addressing equipment shortfalls. At the same time, command articulation arrangements are being improved through moves such as the grouping of loose elements.
Two other broad initiatives are also apparent: the creation of new forces to address critical imbalances and selective force modernisation. The creation of new forces is mainly pursued through pruning the authorised strength in various institutions and units; the latter influenced by the introduction of advanced technologies requiring less manpower.
Enhancement of special forces is one consequence.
"We are now at the stage where we will have a total review on the overall structure of the army and for that the studies are in progress," said Gen Tariq.
The army's immediate concern is centred on counter-terrorism operations in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, with over 80,000 troops deployed. General Ehsan Ul Haq, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff committee, says this has required a meaningful enhancement of capabilities.
"Airborne mobility, aerial surveillance, special forces and communications - these have become far more significant in our development priorities," he explained.
The need to improve tactical mobility led to the induction of 10 additional Kazan/Mil Mi-17 medium transport helicopters and 26 Bell 412EP multirole medium helicopters. These will be supplemented by around 20 refurbished AH-1F Huey Cobra close support/attack helicopters on order from the US for delivery in 18 months. The acquisition of the Mil Mi-35 attack/assault helicopter is under consideration.
"We are also looking very seriously at armed scout helicopters, with options from France and the US under study," noted Gen Ahsan.
In the area of surveillance, the army is looking to indigenously develop UAVs, but has meanwhile acquired from Germany the EMT Luna short-range battlefield reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisition UAV. Three or four systems are likely to be obtained: the army's UAV system first.
Night-vision systems and improved weather radar systems are another priority, while communication capabilities have been partly addressed with military radios worth USD78 million, acquired from the US.
Much of this capability has gone to enhance the special forces, which centre on the three battalion-strong Special Services Group (SSG).
A recently issued request for tender involving 100 7.62 mm sniper rifles and 50 0.50 cal sniper rifles is most likely geared to these troops as well. The SSG will be expanded, though details are unclear, but it has meanwhile been augmented through the establishment over two years ago of the Special Operations Task Force (SOTF).
The battalion-plus SOTF received equipment and training support from the US. It has dedicated aviation support, night-fighting capability and a counter-terrorism mission. Additionally, the training of two battalions of regular infantry as a reaction force in two army corps areas is partly completed. Each of the nine corps headquarters should eventually have such units.
Conventional requirements include improved firepower. There is interest in obtaining additional long-range artillery, including multiple rocket launcher systems with a range beyond 80 km, and two long-standing programmes are focused on main battle tanks (MBTs). The artillery systems will be supported by the planned induction of an undetermined number of target acquisition radars, ideally the US-made AN/TPQ-37(V) Firefinder weapon-locating radar, while provision of night-fighting capability is another priority.
The MBT programmes involve the new Al Khalid, now entering service for deployment along the southern border with India, and the upgraded T-59. Both are fitted with a 125 mm smoothbore gun (the T-59 previously used a 105 mm gun) together with advanced systems and better armour protection. The Al Khalid has night-fighting capability while two thermal imaging systems, from Thales and Sagem, are being evaluated to equip the T-59.
Support elements are also slotted for improvement, most notably in ground-based air defence.
"We've had shortages and, in fact, gross inadequacies in the medium-altitude capability," said Gen Ahsan. Separately, Gen Tariq noted: "We have placed a bias toward missiles rather than guns and on point defence rather than area defence."
This concern will be partly addressed through the acquisition planned for 2007 of a new low-altitude missile air-defence system, which should be produced locally under licence. Several systems are currently under evaluation.
The Pakistan Army, Gen Ahsan notes, is predominantly foot-infantry based.
"We are looking to provide them with greater protection, including nuclear, biological and chemical protection. We also want to equip them with night-vision devices and some more firepower," he said.
"We always planned for the infantry to have grenade launchers, but never obtained them. We now hope to start gradually procuring these."
Navy
The Pakistan Navy's counter-terrorism mission is concentrated on its participation since 2004 in the Coalition Maritime Campaign Plan (CMCP), which was originally premised on interdicting militant movements by sea but has since expanded to cover transnational criminal activity. It is the only regional navy contributing forces and is set to assume overall command of the multilateral Task Force 150 in April.
This is the navy's first involvement in multilateral operations outside the training framework and the leadership stresses its regional outlook.
"We have very good bilateral navy-to-navy relations with all our neighbours except India," said Admiral Afzal Tahir, chief of the naval staff.
"India's navy budget is about nine times that of the Pakistan Navy. We cannot match them platform for platform, or weapon for weapon, but what we will do is have the capability to ensure that we can safeguard our core interests."
Current efforts toward that goal include the completion of its Khalid-class (Agosta 90B) submarine programme, with the third of three platforms due to start sea trials following its delayed launch later in 2006, and oversight of a frigate programme concluded with China in April 2005.
The frigate deal involves four F-22P (Jiangwei II-class) platforms, with the last of these to be built locally at the navy's Karachi shipyard following upgrade work to be completed by 2010.
The submarine fleet includes two Hashmat (Agosta)-class boats and three MG110 midget submarines; the navy's four Hangor (Daphne)-class boats were retired in January.
"We have lost four platforms so I am quite confident that the submarine strength will increase in future," said Adm Afzal Tahir. He adds that there is an outstanding requirement for a multirole ship, including rescue capabilities, to support the submarine fleet.
Among major surface vessels, the navy appears to have abandoned its initial interest in procuring four second-hand frigates and instead favours the acquisition of four corvettes. Provisionally, these would be built locally. Elsewhere, Adm Afzal Tahir foresees the need for one or two additional mine countermeasure vessels and another replenishment tanker "a few years down the line".
In the area of upgrades, the lifting of US sanctions allowed the navy to obtain several long-delayed systems. These include the Vulcan Phalanx Block II close-in weapon system and the RGM-84/UGM-84 Harpoon Block II medium-range anti-ship missile. Atlas Elektronik Black Shark heavyweight torpedoes have meanwhile been purchased for the Agosta 90B submarine and an upgraded version of the Chinese LY-60N short-range theatre defence missile will be fitted on the F-22P frigates.
Analysts have also noted Pakistan's first test launch in August 2005 of its indigenously developed Babur (Hatf VII) cruise missile.
"The missile is presently in land configuration only and we are in no hurry to put these on ships or submarines. We will have to look at this in time," Adm Afzal Tahir said.
Further, the navy is bolstering its fleet of maritime patrol aircraft (MPA). Two Lockheed Martin P-3C Orions in the current inventory will be upgraded after extended maintenance work is completed around mid-2006 and eight more refurbished P-3Cs have been obtained from the US for USD970 million.
The latter will also be modernised and the full Orion fleet should be completed to the latest configuration by 2009. With three old Dassault (Breguet) 1150 Atlantic MPAs to be retired by the end of 2007, the overall fleet will have doubled to 10 modern platforms from the current five.
Elsewhere, the navy's marine contingent will be expanded over the next two years to about brigade-level from its current strength of some 1,500 in view of the expanding requirement for ground-based air defence of naval shore facilities.
The marines have this, together with security along the Indus delta creeks, as their core responsibilities, and in 2005 their capabilities were improved with the acquisition of four Griffon 2000TDM hovercraft from the UK, and a number of assault boats. The hovercraft are probably connected to ongoing development of the amphibious wing.
The heightened focus on air defence is tied to the development of Jinnah Naval Base (JNB) at Ormara and the civil port at Gwadar. Offshore infrastructure has been completed at JNB and naval vessels visit there for periods of 7-10 days. Permanent basing should start in about two years with the completion of onshore infrastructure.
Adm Afzal Tahir says the deep-water port at Gwadar will remain a purely commercial facility, at least initially.
"Naval vessels can go alongside for a few days or a week, but it is just 100 n miles from JNB so we cannot afford to install additional (naval) infrastructure there," he said.
Commenting on the impact of establishing JNB, the navy chief said: "Karachi [until now the only major naval base] is tucked into the northeast corner of our area of operations. JNB is right in the middle, so we will have greater flexibility of deployment together with quicker response," he said.
"Of course, it also makes us less vulnerable."
Air force
The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) lost an average of nine aircraft annually through attrition over the period 2000-03, but this has halved over the past two years. "We enhanced our flying," explained Air Chief Marshal Kaleem Saadat, the chief of air staff. While acting as PAF chief of operations ACM Kaleem launched an initiative to reduce losses due to pilot error. He spoke to Jane's shortly before his retirement on 20 March, when Air Marshal Tanveer Ahmad Khan assumed the top post.
"In 2000, our flying per pilot was in the region of nine hours per month. We have progressively taken this up to 15 hours, or 15 sorties," he said, adding that the figure has now stabilised.
This expansion of flying hours is paralleled by increasingly complex exercises. These include the introduction of surface effects in dissimilar air combat training exercises and intensified operations. The latter saw one air base generate 175 sorties in a day during a trial, for example, while the PAF as a whole flew 8,000 sorties of various types in a month during the September 2005 Exercise 'High Mark'.
Another core development is the PAF's rewrite of its basic doctrine, which dated back to 1988.
"We tried to amplify the characteristics of air power for our sister services," said ACM Kaleem, noting that this also outlines force goals and new missions. The doctrine was released in April 2005 and a revised edition has just been completed following input from the army and navy.
The focus in combat aircraft is on preparing for the introduction of the JF-17 (FC-1 Super-7) attack fighter: a collaborative programme with China involving 150 platforms. This will become the PAF's mainstay fighter as older models are phased out, with delivery of four aircraft from the first small batch production due in March 2007.
Russian sources have told Jane's that the RD-93 engine powering the Chinese model will not be re-exported to Pakistan, but ACM Kaleem says that Beijing has provided solid assurances otherwise.
Three prototypes now undergoing evaluation are fitted with a Chinese radar, probably the NRIET KLJ-10, and this will outfit the Pakistani fighter if it performs as required.
Beyond this, ACM Kaleem says there is an outstanding requirement for 35-50 additional advanced fighters. Plans to acquire more Lockheed Martin F-16s were suspended due to the October 2005 earthquake that devastated Pakistan. This could delay any deal by at least two to three years. The air chief is concerned that both circumstances and requirements may have changed by then, necessitating new negotiations and still further delays, and he suggests that Islamabad may end up turning again to China.
This could also impinge on plans to obtain the Joint Direct Attack Munition, which has been requested from the US.
The PAF has meanwhile finalised a contract for Italy's Galileo Falco medium-altitude endurance tactical UAV, with delivery due in December. Four systems are involved and these will supplement an indigenous UAV already deployed but requiring further development.
ACM Kaleem says tactical and strategic-lift assets are currently sufficient. Strategic-lift assets have been supplemented by six Lockheed Martin C-130 Hercules transport aircraft to bolster the 10 currently operational. The first of these arrives in March and all will be delivered before 2007. Twelve C-130s should then be upgraded to C-130H standard, including a glass cockpit, with the remainder placed in storage.
The PAF is also upgrading its air-defence network, including indigenous development of a multiradar tracker and graphic user interface. The service has also acquired several new radar systems from China, including the YLC-2 long-range 3-D phased-array surveillance system and previously unknown YLC-6 low-level system. Six of 10 YLC-6 radars on order have so far been delivered and Pakistan is also gaining six US-made AN/TPS-77 tactical mobile radars for medium-level application.
ACM Kaleem says that Pakistan has also finalised a contract with Sweden for the Saab-Ericsson airborne early warning and control aircraft, thought to involve seven platforms. This has the Ericsson Microwave Systems Erieye airborne radar mounted on a Saab 2000 turboprop aircraft.
Talks are now under way to replace the Thales Defence Systems Crotale low-altitude surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, with the current inventory including 11 acquisition units and 23 firing units.
Discussion involves acquiring the MBDA Spada 2000 low- to medium-altitude SAM system, which offers both tactical and strategic mobility that includes air-transportability by C-130 Hercules. A contract could be finalised before the current financial year ends in June.
"When US sanctions were imposed in 1990 both the PAF and the Indian Air Force were second-generation air forces. No real-time surveillance capability, no air-to-air refuelling capability, no airborne early warning capability, no beyond-visual-range capability, no stand-off weapon capability. However, after 13 years of sanctions India had all of the above and Pakistan had none until beginning three or four years ago. This is the gap," said ACM Kaleem. "We have to bridge this gap in a manner that we can deny the advantages that our neighbour has in these domains so that we are able to defend ourselves effectively."
Pakistan Country Briefing: Walking the tightrope (jdw.janes.com, 03/10/02
JANE'S DEFENCE WEEKLY - MARCH 22, 2006
COUNTRY BRIEFING: PAKISTAN - PLUGGING THE GAPS
Robert Karniol JDW's Asia-Pacific Editor
Bangkok
While Pakistan's defence strategy has been firmly focused on rival India, various threats undermining internal stability have led the country to re-assess its military capabilities. Robert Karniol reports
* Emerging from US sanctions imposed in 1990, the Pakistani armed forces aim to fill a range of capability gaps
* Tensions with long-time rival India have lessened but New Delhi remains the primary driver for Pakistan's force development
· Three distinct threats are undermining internal stability and prompting the armed forces to enhance further
Pakistan's emergence as an overt nuclear power led to its armed forces establishing a new conventional defence strategy focused on traditional rival India. Other threats have since escalated, undermining internal stability.
India and Pakistan fought three full-scale wars in the post-colonial period and have skirmished almost constantly. The latest significant clash took place in mid-1999 at Kargil, along Kashmir's contentious Line of Control (LoC), and in 2002 a million troops faced each other during a major force mobilisation. Tensions, however, have eased notably in recent years.
A ceasefire has been in place along the LoC since 2003 and is viewed as successful. This has been supplemented by a series of confidence-building measures and, since early 2004, by sluggish peace talks that continue. The catastrophic earthquake of October 2005, centred on Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, also moved rapprochement forward through India's sympathetic response.
India, nevertheless, remains of central concern to Pakistan's armed forces.
"Threat is based on two perspectives: capabilities and intention," said Lieutenant General Tariq Majid, the army's chief of general staff.
"Intention takes no time to change, so it's on the basis of capabilities that you have to proceed with your planning and your strategies. We have to stay alive to the possibility of a conventional threat from India."
Pakistan's security strategy is rooted in maintaining a "minimum" credible deterrent capability and this encouraged Islamabad to launch a covert nuclear weapon programme after India's 1974 nuclear test. This effort's success, revealed in 1998, produced a new perspective in its armed forces on the conventional threat.
"Due to the nuclear forces in India and Pakistan, any conventional war that breaks out will be limited in scope, in extent and in time. It would be extremely intense, but within these three parameters," explained General Ahsan Saleem Hyat, Pakistan's vice chief of army staff.
"We have tailored our doctrine and concepts and employment of forces to this understanding. This is the result of nuclearisation."
Force development in Pakistan is otherwise influenced by two main factors: the need for flexible response capabilities in order to meet aggression at an appropriate level and capabilities allowing for an active defence posture, which includes an offensive response.
Internal conflicts
The potential for conflict with India remains dominant among Pakistan's military leadership thinking, but actual combat operations are focused on addressing three internal security issues: the conflict within Islam; a revived low-level insurgency in Balochistan; and the 'war against terror' centred on the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATAs) along the Afghan border. These are separate problems, though with some overlap.
The military response to Islamic militancy largely involves heightened security conditions and enhancement of counter-terrorism capabilities. Dealing with the Baloch insurgency, which is mainly centred on two of 27 districts, is spearheaded by the paramilitary Frontier Corps, though there is some army involvement. The Frontier Corps' strength in Balochistan is being expanded by 12 wings, for example, while the army's Balochistan Corps has set aside one battalion for specialised training as a reaction force. Two companies from this battalion have completed training and the remaining two have started.
Military activity is more strongly focused on the 'war on terror' in the mountainous FATAs. There are seven FATAs in all but the conflict centres on two of these the agencies of North and South Waziristan: where over 80,000 ground troops are deployed with army helicopters and the air force providing support. This campaign involves developments in structure and capabilities, including the establishment over two years ago of the battalion-plus Special Operations Task Force (SOTF). Capability enhancements under way involve tactical lift through additional helicopters, night-vision devices and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). "We are not fighting America's war in the FATAs. It is in our own interest. We're fighting this war because, unfortunately, there have been fallout effects in Pakistan from the instability in Afghanistan," said Gen Tariq.
Winning the 'war on terror' in the FATAs can be viewed as Islamabad's tactical objective. Military sources say that over 210 foreign militants and Al-Qaeda personnel were killed in February, with a further 700 local and foreign militants arrested. However, there is a strategic objective as well.
The tribal FATAs are unruly and underdeveloped, with a high degree of local autonomy dating back to the British colonial period. Beyond acting against the extended terrorism threat, President General Pervez Musharraf aims to gradually bring them into Pakistan's mainstream. This is a long-term project, with one Islamabad-based analyst saying it may take a generation or two to fully implement, but it is a process seriously started with Pakistan's 'war on terror'.
There are three core requirements driving force development in Pakistan. The armed forces seek to maintain a "minimum" credible deterrent capability and, more immediately, pursue capacity-building for the 'war on terror'. Finally, there is the need to meet organisational and developmental requirements to support Pakistan's substantial commitment to UN peacekeeping operations.
"The government has made serious efforts to improve our economy, and we have to be mindful that this progress on the economic front is not retarded. So affordability is always affected," said Gen Tariq. "We have to prioritise."
Army
The Pakistan Army is re-organising after the completion in 2005 of a comprehensive study focused largely on improving efficiency and the 'tooth-to-tail' ratio. Cost-cutting is another factor. This applies to both conventional and sub-conventional threats, the latter covering counter-terrorism operations and low-intensity conflict. Over 50,000 personnel have been trimmed from 550,000 by suspending recruitment and attrition through normal retirement. Existing units are also being brought up to strength, mainly by addressing equipment shortfalls. At the same time, command articulation arrangements are being improved through moves such as the grouping of loose elements.
Two other broad initiatives are also apparent: the creation of new forces to address critical imbalances and selective force modernisation. The creation of new forces is mainly pursued through pruning the authorised strength in various institutions and units; the latter influenced by the introduction of advanced technologies requiring less manpower.
Enhancement of special forces is one consequence.
"We are now at the stage where we will have a total review on the overall structure of the army and for that the studies are in progress," said Gen Tariq.
The army's immediate concern is centred on counter-terrorism operations in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, with over 80,000 troops deployed. General Ehsan Ul Haq, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff committee, says this has required a meaningful enhancement of capabilities.
"Airborne mobility, aerial surveillance, special forces and communications - these have become far more significant in our development priorities," he explained.
The need to improve tactical mobility led to the induction of 10 additional Kazan/Mil Mi-17 medium transport helicopters and 26 Bell 412EP multirole medium helicopters. These will be supplemented by around 20 refurbished AH-1F Huey Cobra close support/attack helicopters on order from the US for delivery in 18 months. The acquisition of the Mil Mi-35 attack/assault helicopter is under consideration.
"We are also looking very seriously at armed scout helicopters, with options from France and the US under study," noted Gen Ahsan.
In the area of surveillance, the army is looking to indigenously develop UAVs, but has meanwhile acquired from Germany the EMT Luna short-range battlefield reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisition UAV. Three or four systems are likely to be obtained: the army's UAV system first.
Night-vision systems and improved weather radar systems are another priority, while communication capabilities have been partly addressed with military radios worth USD78 million, acquired from the US.
Much of this capability has gone to enhance the special forces, which centre on the three battalion-strong Special Services Group (SSG).
A recently issued request for tender involving 100 7.62 mm sniper rifles and 50 0.50 cal sniper rifles is most likely geared to these troops as well. The SSG will be expanded, though details are unclear, but it has meanwhile been augmented through the establishment over two years ago of the Special Operations Task Force (SOTF).
The battalion-plus SOTF received equipment and training support from the US. It has dedicated aviation support, night-fighting capability and a counter-terrorism mission. Additionally, the training of two battalions of regular infantry as a reaction force in two army corps areas is partly completed. Each of the nine corps headquarters should eventually have such units.
Conventional requirements include improved firepower. There is interest in obtaining additional long-range artillery, including multiple rocket launcher systems with a range beyond 80 km, and two long-standing programmes are focused on main battle tanks (MBTs). The artillery systems will be supported by the planned induction of an undetermined number of target acquisition radars, ideally the US-made AN/TPQ-37(V) Firefinder weapon-locating radar, while provision of night-fighting capability is another priority.
The MBT programmes involve the new Al Khalid, now entering service for deployment along the southern border with India, and the upgraded T-59. Both are fitted with a 125 mm smoothbore gun (the T-59 previously used a 105 mm gun) together with advanced systems and better armour protection. The Al Khalid has night-fighting capability while two thermal imaging systems, from Thales and Sagem, are being evaluated to equip the T-59.
Support elements are also slotted for improvement, most notably in ground-based air defence.
"We've had shortages and, in fact, gross inadequacies in the medium-altitude capability," said Gen Ahsan. Separately, Gen Tariq noted: "We have placed a bias toward missiles rather than guns and on point defence rather than area defence."
This concern will be partly addressed through the acquisition planned for 2007 of a new low-altitude missile air-defence system, which should be produced locally under licence. Several systems are currently under evaluation.
The Pakistan Army, Gen Ahsan notes, is predominantly foot-infantry based.
"We are looking to provide them with greater protection, including nuclear, biological and chemical protection. We also want to equip them with night-vision devices and some more firepower," he said.
"We always planned for the infantry to have grenade launchers, but never obtained them. We now hope to start gradually procuring these."
Navy
The Pakistan Navy's counter-terrorism mission is concentrated on its participation since 2004 in the Coalition Maritime Campaign Plan (CMCP), which was originally premised on interdicting militant movements by sea but has since expanded to cover transnational criminal activity. It is the only regional navy contributing forces and is set to assume overall command of the multilateral Task Force 150 in April.
This is the navy's first involvement in multilateral operations outside the training framework and the leadership stresses its regional outlook.
"We have very good bilateral navy-to-navy relations with all our neighbours except India," said Admiral Afzal Tahir, chief of the naval staff.
"India's navy budget is about nine times that of the Pakistan Navy. We cannot match them platform for platform, or weapon for weapon, but what we will do is have the capability to ensure that we can safeguard our core interests."
Current efforts toward that goal include the completion of its Khalid-class (Agosta 90B) submarine programme, with the third of three platforms due to start sea trials following its delayed launch later in 2006, and oversight of a frigate programme concluded with China in April 2005.
The frigate deal involves four F-22P (Jiangwei II-class) platforms, with the last of these to be built locally at the navy's Karachi shipyard following upgrade work to be completed by 2010.
The submarine fleet includes two Hashmat (Agosta)-class boats and three MG110 midget submarines; the navy's four Hangor (Daphne)-class boats were retired in January.
"We have lost four platforms so I am quite confident that the submarine strength will increase in future," said Adm Afzal Tahir. He adds that there is an outstanding requirement for a multirole ship, including rescue capabilities, to support the submarine fleet.
Among major surface vessels, the navy appears to have abandoned its initial interest in procuring four second-hand frigates and instead favours the acquisition of four corvettes. Provisionally, these would be built locally. Elsewhere, Adm Afzal Tahir foresees the need for one or two additional mine countermeasure vessels and another replenishment tanker "a few years down the line".
In the area of upgrades, the lifting of US sanctions allowed the navy to obtain several long-delayed systems. These include the Vulcan Phalanx Block II close-in weapon system and the RGM-84/UGM-84 Harpoon Block II medium-range anti-ship missile. Atlas Elektronik Black Shark heavyweight torpedoes have meanwhile been purchased for the Agosta 90B submarine and an upgraded version of the Chinese LY-60N short-range theatre defence missile will be fitted on the F-22P frigates.
Analysts have also noted Pakistan's first test launch in August 2005 of its indigenously developed Babur (Hatf VII) cruise missile.
"The missile is presently in land configuration only and we are in no hurry to put these on ships or submarines. We will have to look at this in time," Adm Afzal Tahir said.
Further, the navy is bolstering its fleet of maritime patrol aircraft (MPA). Two Lockheed Martin P-3C Orions in the current inventory will be upgraded after extended maintenance work is completed around mid-2006 and eight more refurbished P-3Cs have been obtained from the US for USD970 million.
The latter will also be modernised and the full Orion fleet should be completed to the latest configuration by 2009. With three old Dassault (Breguet) 1150 Atlantic MPAs to be retired by the end of 2007, the overall fleet will have doubled to 10 modern platforms from the current five.
Elsewhere, the navy's marine contingent will be expanded over the next two years to about brigade-level from its current strength of some 1,500 in view of the expanding requirement for ground-based air defence of naval shore facilities.
The marines have this, together with security along the Indus delta creeks, as their core responsibilities, and in 2005 their capabilities were improved with the acquisition of four Griffon 2000TDM hovercraft from the UK, and a number of assault boats. The hovercraft are probably connected to ongoing development of the amphibious wing.
The heightened focus on air defence is tied to the development of Jinnah Naval Base (JNB) at Ormara and the civil port at Gwadar. Offshore infrastructure has been completed at JNB and naval vessels visit there for periods of 7-10 days. Permanent basing should start in about two years with the completion of onshore infrastructure.
Adm Afzal Tahir says the deep-water port at Gwadar will remain a purely commercial facility, at least initially.
"Naval vessels can go alongside for a few days or a week, but it is just 100 n miles from JNB so we cannot afford to install additional (naval) infrastructure there," he said.
Commenting on the impact of establishing JNB, the navy chief said: "Karachi [until now the only major naval base] is tucked into the northeast corner of our area of operations. JNB is right in the middle, so we will have greater flexibility of deployment together with quicker response," he said.
"Of course, it also makes us less vulnerable."
Air force
The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) lost an average of nine aircraft annually through attrition over the period 2000-03, but this has halved over the past two years. "We enhanced our flying," explained Air Chief Marshal Kaleem Saadat, the chief of air staff. While acting as PAF chief of operations ACM Kaleem launched an initiative to reduce losses due to pilot error. He spoke to Jane's shortly before his retirement on 20 March, when Air Marshal Tanveer Ahmad Khan assumed the top post.
"In 2000, our flying per pilot was in the region of nine hours per month. We have progressively taken this up to 15 hours, or 15 sorties," he said, adding that the figure has now stabilised.
This expansion of flying hours is paralleled by increasingly complex exercises. These include the introduction of surface effects in dissimilar air combat training exercises and intensified operations. The latter saw one air base generate 175 sorties in a day during a trial, for example, while the PAF as a whole flew 8,000 sorties of various types in a month during the September 2005 Exercise 'High Mark'.
Another core development is the PAF's rewrite of its basic doctrine, which dated back to 1988.
"We tried to amplify the characteristics of air power for our sister services," said ACM Kaleem, noting that this also outlines force goals and new missions. The doctrine was released in April 2005 and a revised edition has just been completed following input from the army and navy.
The focus in combat aircraft is on preparing for the introduction of the JF-17 (FC-1 Super-7) attack fighter: a collaborative programme with China involving 150 platforms. This will become the PAF's mainstay fighter as older models are phased out, with delivery of four aircraft from the first small batch production due in March 2007.
Russian sources have told Jane's that the RD-93 engine powering the Chinese model will not be re-exported to Pakistan, but ACM Kaleem says that Beijing has provided solid assurances otherwise.
Three prototypes now undergoing evaluation are fitted with a Chinese radar, probably the NRIET KLJ-10, and this will outfit the Pakistani fighter if it performs as required.
Beyond this, ACM Kaleem says there is an outstanding requirement for 35-50 additional advanced fighters. Plans to acquire more Lockheed Martin F-16s were suspended due to the October 2005 earthquake that devastated Pakistan. This could delay any deal by at least two to three years. The air chief is concerned that both circumstances and requirements may have changed by then, necessitating new negotiations and still further delays, and he suggests that Islamabad may end up turning again to China.
This could also impinge on plans to obtain the Joint Direct Attack Munition, which has been requested from the US.
The PAF has meanwhile finalised a contract for Italy's Galileo Falco medium-altitude endurance tactical UAV, with delivery due in December. Four systems are involved and these will supplement an indigenous UAV already deployed but requiring further development.
ACM Kaleem says tactical and strategic-lift assets are currently sufficient. Strategic-lift assets have been supplemented by six Lockheed Martin C-130 Hercules transport aircraft to bolster the 10 currently operational. The first of these arrives in March and all will be delivered before 2007. Twelve C-130s should then be upgraded to C-130H standard, including a glass cockpit, with the remainder placed in storage.
The PAF is also upgrading its air-defence network, including indigenous development of a multiradar tracker and graphic user interface. The service has also acquired several new radar systems from China, including the YLC-2 long-range 3-D phased-array surveillance system and previously unknown YLC-6 low-level system. Six of 10 YLC-6 radars on order have so far been delivered and Pakistan is also gaining six US-made AN/TPS-77 tactical mobile radars for medium-level application.
ACM Kaleem says that Pakistan has also finalised a contract with Sweden for the Saab-Ericsson airborne early warning and control aircraft, thought to involve seven platforms. This has the Ericsson Microwave Systems Erieye airborne radar mounted on a Saab 2000 turboprop aircraft.
Talks are now under way to replace the Thales Defence Systems Crotale low-altitude surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, with the current inventory including 11 acquisition units and 23 firing units.
Discussion involves acquiring the MBDA Spada 2000 low- to medium-altitude SAM system, which offers both tactical and strategic mobility that includes air-transportability by C-130 Hercules. A contract could be finalised before the current financial year ends in June.
"When US sanctions were imposed in 1990 both the PAF and the Indian Air Force were second-generation air forces. No real-time surveillance capability, no air-to-air refuelling capability, no airborne early warning capability, no beyond-visual-range capability, no stand-off weapon capability. However, after 13 years of sanctions India had all of the above and Pakistan had none until beginning three or four years ago. This is the gap," said ACM Kaleem. "We have to bridge this gap in a manner that we can deny the advantages that our neighbour has in these domains so that we are able to defend ourselves effectively."
Pakistan Country Briefing: Walking the tightrope (jdw.janes.com, 03/10/02
