Pakistan And India-Water Disputes-News And Updates

[Subramanian]

The jugular vein is in the hands of india but it is a weapon we cannot and will not use.Making the poor of pakistan hungry and tired is equivalent to us making terrorists on our own.But having said that water scarcity could push us towards such a thing.

Pakistan in general has to realise this fact and use the water efficiently.

 

[ajtr]

Water theft​

In July 2010, I took a tour of Punjab and Sindh with the purpose of uncovering canal water theft due to which small farmers are being crippled into poverty. From Gujranwala to Badin, the conclusion was the same. Wherever small farmers were ‘tailenders’ (based near the bottom of canals) they are subjected to discrimination because water is stolen at the higher end of the canal, before it can reach them.
This phenomenon is decades old. There was never a real campaign against it since most governments were involved in it themselves. When I brought this issue up, eyebrows were raised. The rights of tailenders are internationally recognised, but not so in Pakistan.
As I travelled through these two provinces, I saw that farmers were being subjected to poverty despite having cultivatable land. And even though they caught water thieves red-handed, there was nothing they could do because these thieves had connections with people in irrigation and political power corridors.
In Punjab, farmers showed me how, due to the non-lining of canals, water was diverted into other fields. In Okara Dipalpur, we caught thieves in the middle of the night, fixing their tools into water courses. When confronted, they took names of influential people sitting in the cabinet. In Sindh, the trend was more blatant as waderas have installed illegal pipes.
After the trip, I set up a meeting of the Climate Change Sub-Committee of the National Assembly Standing Committee on Environment and discussed the issue. Punjab officials informed the committee that 10,485 cases of theft were reported in 2010 but not as many FIRs were registered and thus theft continued unabated. Unfortunately, no irrigation official was charged as an accomplice to the crime.
Small farmers are becoming poorer whilst irrigation officials become richer. In Sindh, despite the 1977 ban of direct outlets from canals, which are the main cause of such theft, 42,000 outlets exist. I had evidence of theft on tape, which I shared with the committee. Irrigation departments were instructed to investigate theft. Needless to say that to date no such action has taken place.
Soon after this campaign, the flood hit the country and this issue went down on my list of priorities. But now it is back on top.
These farmers are not helpless, because they are large in numbers. They need to unite against thieves. It is a long struggle but one that is critical for saving our small farmers whose productivity is being held hostage by rich bandits.
If we were to attack corruption with a vengeance, we wouldn’t need any foreign aid. It’s all in our hands. We need to get the rich to pay their taxes and not steal from the poor. Then, perhaps, we can breathe sovereign air.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 3rd, 2010.

 

[ajtr]

Pakistan may lose water priority rights to India​

By Khalid Mustafa
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s most important and strategic Neelum-Jehlum Hydropower Project of $1.5 billion has run into snags, as the Chinese company has slowed down the construction work on the site, thereby increasing the chances of losing water priority rights of River Neelum to India.
The tension between Wapda and the Chinese company, China Ghazoba Group of Companies (CGGC), has reached an all time high. “Sensing the importance of the project and impact of slowing down of construction work on water priority rights, Nie Kai, the President of China Ghazoba Group of Companies, is dashing to Pakistan and will hold a meeting with President Asif Zardari and Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani today (Monday). After that, Kai will hold talks with Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) Chairman Shakeel Durrani to defuse the tension between the Chinese company and Wapda,” a senior official at the Water and Power Ministry confided to The News.
India is building the Kishanganga Hydropower Project on River Neelum that originates from held Kashmir and enters Pakistan. Under the Indus Waters Treaty between Pakistan and India, the country that will first complete and commission its project will have the water priority rights on the said river. The slowing down of the construction work on the Neelum-Jehlum Hydropower Project is not tolerable to Pakistan. The electricity generation capacity of the project of paramount importance stands at 969 MW.
China Ghazoba Group of Companies that secured the contract to complete the project at the cost of $1.5 billion has slowed down the construction work and to this effect Wapda wrote a strong worded letter to president of the CGGC some two weeks back, saying that the Chinese company was not producing required quality and had also slowed down the construction work.
Wapda’s letter to the CGGC, whose copy is available with The News, also pointed out that the Chinese experts and technicians’ expertise was not up to the mark.
When contacted, a top Wapda official expressed the fear that if the construction work on the Neelum-Jehlum Hydropower Project continued at a snail’s pace, then India would complete the Kishanganga project first and will have the water priority rights. “Under this scenario, 15-20 per cent water flow into Pakistan from the Neelum River will be reduced and it would also hurt the electricity generation capacity of the project. Apart from it, the environment of the Neelum River would also be adversely damaged,” he added.
“We need 280 cusecs of water to generate 969 MW of project that will have an impact of Rs 35 billion per annum but in case of reduced inflows in Neelum River, the project will not be able to get the required hydrogenation,” the official said.
The official disclosed that the Chinese company has four Jumbo drilling machines on the site, which are not efficient and quick in constructing the 47-kilometre-long tunnel. He said the Chinese company was using the ‘drill and blast’ method to complete the tunnel. “This is very slow process and so far we have only completed tunnel of nine kilometres.”
He said if the pace of work on the project remained slow, then the project will be completed by 2018 and in case the Chinese company managed to arrange the tunnel boring machine, which is very efficient, then the project could be completed by 2016.
“Our intelligence sources confirmed that India has already acquired the tunnel boring machine and is vigorously working to complete the Kishanganga Hydropower Project with faulty design, which is not in conformity with the Indus Waters Treaty,” the official claimed.
“In case the completion of project gets delayed from the deadline of 2016, then Pakistan would brave the huge loss of Rs 35 billion every year,” he warned. The project has already been delayed by one and a half years, as the AJK government delayed procurement of 3,200 kanals land for it.
The China Exim bank will provide funding of $480 million for the project for which negotiations with the Chinese government are under way. The official said that $480 million would be treated as the supplier’s credit.

 

[ajtr]

Neelam Jhelum Hydroelectric Project - exploitation of Kashmiri resources​

Speech of Dr Shabir Choudhry in a seminar arranged by Kashmir National Party on 04 July 2010.

Mr Chairman, friends and colleagues Aslamo alaykam.

1. Clarification

Before I make a presentation on the above topic, I want to make this clear that I DO NOT write or speak against Pakistan. I write and actively protect and promote interest of people of Pakistani Administered Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan. Because wrong doer on this side of the divide is Pakistan or Pakistani officials and I expose their deeds which they do in name of Islam or brotherhood, people wrongly accuse me of being anti Pakistan.

When Pakistani writers and media people expose Pakistani officials for wrong doings inside Pakistan, they get compliments and they are not called anti Pakistan, but when we nationalist Kashmiris expose wrong doings of Pakistani officials inside our territory, we are accused of being anti Pakistan and in some cases ‘Indian agents’.

True, for some years I have paid less attention to issues of Indian Administered Kashmir not because they are not important, but because there are plenty of people to speak for their rights; and if I speak I will be just another voice. Whereas on the Pakistani side of the divide there is hardly anyone to speak out or expose human rights abuses and economic exploitations because of fear and intimidation.

As soon as anyone dares to speak to expose wrong doings of Pakistani officials in Pakistani Administered Kashmir or Gilgit Baltistan he is criticised as being ‘anti Pakistan’ or an ‘Indian agent’. Because of this fear and intimidation people are very hesitant to speak about their plight on this side of the LOC.

I have courageously written and criticised Pakistan’s Kashmir policy for years. It was not criticism for the sake of criticism, as I supported my contentions with historical evidence and facts, and yet I had to pay a big price for this; and because of ludicrous allegation and campaign of hatred, even I feel the pressure. I am a practicing Muslim, and yet I have been called Hindu and Sikh, just because what I write does not promote interest of those who make Kashmir policy for us, and those who have transformed the Kashmiri struggle in to business, whereas people of Jammu and Kashmir continue to suffer.

After announcing this seminar I had a phone call in which the caller verbally abused me and said: ‘If you are a true Kashmiri then you should expose India, because they are killing innocent people including children; and all you care is about water issues in Azad Kashmir’.

I gave him appropriate replies, but for the benefit of this audience, I and KNP condemn terrorism and killing of innocent people. To us Indian policy in Kashmir is exposed and you can’t expose it anymore; however we need to expose Pakistani policy on Kashmir which is carefully disguised in name of Islam and brotherhood.

2. Introduction

Mr Chairman

Water is fundamental to human survival, and many countries have serious shortage of water and energy, yet demand is on increase. Lack of sufficient clean and useable freshwater has adverse impact on economy and prosperity of many countries. Because of this scarcity, water has taken a strategic role for many states; and could be cause of conflicts in future.

In 1995, Vice President of the World Bank Ismael Serageldin said: ‘If the wars of this century were fought over oil, the wars of the next century will be fought over water.’

Egypt went to war with Israel more than once, but when President Anwar Sadat signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1979, he said Egypt will never go to war again, except to protect its water resources. Former Secretary General of the Untied Nation, Boutros Boutros-Ghali warned bluntly that ‘the next war in the area will be over water’.

As freshwater resources transcend national boundaries and its management is a major challenge for the future. If amicable mechanism of water distribution is not established, and alternative sources of energy are not discovered then Ismael Serageldin’s prediction might prove to be correct not in too distant future.

Our neighbour, Pakistan has serious energy and clean water problems, and more than 38 million people do not have access to safe drinking water. Despite these serious problems Pakistan has failed to get consensus to construct Kala Bagh Dam, initial planning of which was made in 1950s, and the country has spent millions of pounds on various feasibility reports. All the reports suggest that the dam project was economically viable, but politicians and provinces did not agree with its construction for various reasons.

3. Water – our natural resources

Mr Chairman

Just like oil is natural resources of some countries, water is natural resources of Jammu and Kashmir; but unlike other countries we cannot sell our natural resources, because it is not under our control. Tragedy is we cannot even use water according to our wishes or requirements.

The water resources in Jammu and Kashmir belong to the people of the State, but it was India and Pakistan who decided how to use our water in Indus Water Treaty of 1960. In the past both countries fought conventional wars and a proxy war to take control of the State of Jammu and Kashmir, as both wanted to make it part of their country. Now fear is that they might clash over the water issue.
Strategic Foresight Group of the International Centre for Peace Initiatives in Mumbai, in a book “The Final Settlement” deals with the issue of water between India and Pakistan in detail and says: Pakistan’s interest is in conflict with the people of Kashmir on both sides of the Line of Control; and adds, "A conflict over land between the people of Kashmir and the government of India will soon become a thing of the past. On the other hand, a water war between Kashmir and Pakistan is inevitable in the future."
But the question is who will fight and protect rights of the people of Jammu and Kashmir? The puppet leaders who will do anything to please their political masters in Islamabad have no spine to even talk about rights of the people of Pakistani Administered Kashmir. When people of Khyebar Pakhtoon Khawa strongly refused to allow Islamabad to construct the Kala Bagh Dam, even though it was in the interest of Pakistan, puppet leaders of Islamabad in Pakistani Administered Kashmir said: for sake of Pakistan we will build 100 dams in Azad Kashmir.
Prime Minister of Pakistani Administered Kashmir, Sikandar Hayat told a seminar on March 6, 2003 “The freedom fighters of Kashmir are in reality fighting for Pakistan's water security and have prevented India from constructing a dam on the Wular Barrage.”
Another Prime Minister of Pakistani Administered Kashmir, Sardar Yaqoob Khan while speaking at the Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry on 12 August 2009, said, ‘the AJK had the potential to generate over 14,000 megawatts (MW) of hydro-electricity’.
Pakistan’s electric requirement stands at 14,700 MW, and if our electric generating potential is in hands of a sincere government, then we can export electricity to Pakistan and meet their energy needs. It must be noted that current electric requirement of Pakistani Administered Kashmir is 400 MW; and we produce more than 1500 MW at present and we face long hours of load shedding just because everything is controlled by Islamabad.
4. Neelam Jhelum Hydroelectric Project
Mr Chairman
In line with its past policies, Islamabad has started a mega project in its colony, known as Azad Kashmir. They did not even care to consult, get permission, or have a formal agreement with the rulers of this territory. They know these rulers are puppets, and are ‘appointed’ there to look after interests of Islamabad.
Neelam Jhelum Hydroelectric Project is located near Muzaffarabad, capital of Pakistani Administered Kashmir. It aims to dig a tunnel and divert water of Neelam River from Nauseri, about 41 KM East of Muzzafrabad. A Powerhouse will be constructed at Chatter Kalas, 22 Km South of Muzaffarabad; and after passing through the turbines the water will be released in Jhelum River, about 4 Km South of Chatter Kalas. Once completed, the Neelam Jhelum Hydroelectric Project will produce 969 MW of electricity annually at the cost of US $2.16 billion.
1. This project, once completed will benefit Pakistan, but local people will not benefit from it in any form or shape. However, there will be serious economic and environmental consequences for the local people; and their future generations will face very serious economic and environmental problems.

2. The project will have very serious impact on environment of the area, as it plays a key role in the configuration of Himalayan ecosystem. Environmental groups have expressed their concerns about prospective environmental hazards on local economy and biodiversity.

3. Ecologists say the project area has significant conservational importance due to abundant of forests, aquatics life and presence of many species of wild life, which have been declared endangered globally.

4. Majority of population lives in rural areas and their existence and life largely depends upon forestry, livestock and agriculture. River water and natural springs are main source for drinking and irrigation of land; and this diversion of river will have serious water shortage, which will make life miserable for the local people.

5. The project will also have serious impact on the habitat of various rare species considered on the verge of extinction. Developmental activities in the area and other changes will surely have negative impact on the natural habitat of wildlife.

6. Beauty of this area is enhanced by this river; and this diversion will have serious affect on wild life, weather and beauty of the area. The river and the beauty of the area attract tourists and provide clean water to the local people and citizens of Muzaffarabad; and this diversion of water will deprive the area of clean water and reduce the Neelam River to ‘Nalah Lahi’ in Rawalpindi which has dirty water and creates enormous problems for the citizens.

5. Kishanganga Hydro Electrical project

Mr Chairman

Interestingly India is also constructing a dam on the Neelam River at Gurez which will divert water through 22 KM long tunnel before it enters Pakistani Administered Kashmir; and release the water in to Bonar Madumati Nallah – a tributary of the Jhelum River. The diverted water would be used for generating 390 megawatt electricity and feeding the Wullar Lake. The project will be completed by 2015.

What this mean is that the water of Neelam River will join River Jhelum at Bandipore on the Indian side of LOC instead of its present convergence at Domel in Muzaffarabad, Pakistani Administered Kashmir. This project has potential to benefit people of Jammu and Kashmir on the Indian side of the LOC, but it will surely reduce flow of water in the Neelam River when it enters Pakistani Administered Kashmir; and it will have severe impact on Neelam-Jhelum Hydro Electric Project.

The government of Pakistan believes that the diversion of water to Wullar Lake contravenes the provisions of the Indus Water Treaty, as it affect flow of water and affects the Pakistani project. Bilateral Talks between the countries on this issue have failed and Pakistan wants to resolve this issue by invoking the arbitration process enshrined in the Indus Water Treaty of 1960.

6. Other Hydropower projects in Pakistani Administered Kashmir

Mr Chairman

Pakistan plans to construct some more dams in Pakistani Administered Kashmir.

They have completed a project at Jagran with capacity to produce of 30.4
MW, and it is already connected with National Grid System in Pakistan. Apart from that they have completed small projects at, Kundal Shahee, Kathai and Leepa. Also they have some micro- level projects completed and in operation at Kail.

The government of Pakistan in its Water Vision 2025 programme has announced to construct more dams in Pakistani Administered Kashmir, details are as follows:

Kohalla hydropower project

Kohalla project: This is also run-of-river project, and the project site is located at Dhal Chattian 22 km from Muzaffarabad upstream on Jhelum and powerhouse is at Barsala 7 km from Kohalla. The completion period is about nine years at the cost of $1381 million.

New Bong with capacity of 74 MW
Gulpur with capacity of 60 MW
Rajdhani with capacity of 86 MW
Chakhoti with capacity of 123 MW
Abbasian with capacity of 244 MW
Harrihgel with capacity of 53 MW
Kotli with capacity of 97 MW

There are some micro and small size projects under consideration, and these are:

Batar with capacity of 4.8 MW
Kathai with capacity of 2.4 MW
Batdhara with capacity of 10.2 MW
Riali with capacity of 24.9 MW and
Dhakari with capacity of 3.2 MW

7. Conclusion

As noted earlier water is essential for human survival and progress. Jammu and Kashmir is blessed with this by the Almighty Allah; and Pakistan has serious water and energy problems. Due to out of date water management techniques, poor planning, and political problems the situation has become very acute.

We appreciate Pakistan’s water and energy requirements and want to help them in this regard as well; but they should learn to share resources and not to exploit us by behaving like an imperialial power. They need to acknowledge that these resources belong to the people of Jammu and Kashmir and if they want to make use of them then best way is to negotiate that with government of Pakistani Administered Kashmir and pay for the resources they use that people of the area also benefit from this.

This approach will create better understanding and promote goodwill between people of Pakistan and people of Jammu and Kashmir. If on the other hand they continue with their policies of exploiting Kashmir resources like imperial powers do, then it will surely back fire and will generate bad feelings for Pakistan.

I end with a quote of Mir Afzal Suleria, President of Kashmir National Party in Pakistani Administered Kashmir, who while talking to Human Rights Watch, said:

‘Pakistan says they are our friends and India is our enemy. I agree India is our enemy, but with friends like these, who needs enemies’?

Mr Chairman, I thank you for your patience.

Writer is Director Diplomatic Committee of Kashmir National Party, political analyst and author of many books and booklets. Also he is Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs.Email:drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com

 

[ajtr]

Costly venture: Neelum-Jhelum hydropower project trudges along​

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has completed only 16 per cent of the work on the Neelum-Jhelum hydropower project as compared to the relatively faster pace of construction of the Kishanganga project by India. This may deprive Islamabad of priority water rights under the 1960 treaty on water.
An official of the Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) said on Thursday that with the current pace of work Pakistan will be able to complete the 969-megawatt (MW) project by 2016, a year after India finishes the Kishanganga power project on the Neelum River.
Under the 1960 Indus Waters Basin Treaty, any country that constructs and commissions a power project on Neelum River will have priority rights on the use of its water.
“The Indians are using advanced technology that will help them complete the project by 2015,” said Tahir Mahmood, the chief financial officer of the Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Company. He said that Pakistan has also decided to use this technology, which will cost $150 million.
“Pakistan is negotiating a loan for the purchase of technology and if successful, this will enable it to complete the project two years ahead of schedule,” he added.
He was speaking at a $40 million loan signing ceremony between Pakistan and the Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development. The fund extended the soft loan for the construction of the project.
The government also imposed a 10 paisa per unit surcharge in electricity bills to raise money for the project and Tahir said that last year Rs5 billion was collected from this surcharge.
“The Neelum-Jhelum project is very important to overcome the energy shortage in Pakistan,” said Hesham Al Waqayan, the deputy director general of the fund.
Pakistan is facing an acute energy shortage that has been negatively affecting economic growth. According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan, power outages reduced gross domestic product by two per cent last year.
Mahmood said that so far only 16 per cent of the project has been completed, adding that work was progressing simultaneously on three sites and Rs17 billion has been spent on the project. The government awarded the construction contract of the project to a consortium led by a Chinese company.
“In case the Indians succeed [in finishing their project before Pakistan does] it will have a partial negative impact on the Neelum-Jhelum project,” said Lieutenant General (retired) Muhammad Zubair, the newly appointed chief executive officer of the power company.
“The total cost of the project is $2 billion (Rs172 billion) including a $775 million foreign component,” said Sibtain Fazal Halim, the secretary for the Economic Affairs Division.
He said that negotiations for obtaining over $550 million in loans from China and the Islamic Development Bank (IDB) were at final stages. Pakistan is negotiating a $448 million loan with China. Talks for the IDB loan were also under way but the amount has yet to be finalised.
Neelum River enters Azad Kashmir from the occupied Kashmir at a distance of about 200 kilometres east of Muzaffarabad.
According to various studies, the Kishanganga dam could reduce Pakistan’s total water availability from the current estimated 154 million acre feet per year and may affect a significant portion of Mangla Dam’s storage capacity besides resulting in a decrease in the pressure required to generate electricity in Neelum-Jhelum power project.

 

[BATMAN]

Pakistan: Drought Fears For Wheat Farmers

Drought-like conditions across Pakistan in December and January are worrying wheat farmers who fear large-scale crop failure.
“Things are looking dismal right now. The wheat crop, sown late last year, needs to be watered. It is our main crop of the year. The lack of rain is a disaster for those of us who depend on wheat,” Muhammad Fiaz, a farmer from the Vehari area of Punjab Province told IRIN.

 

[ajtr]

Pakistan: Drought Fears For Wheat Farmers

Drought-like conditions across Pakistan in December and January are worrying wheat farmers who fear large-scale crop failure.
“Things are looking dismal right now. The wheat crop, sown late last year, needs to be watered. It is our main crop of the year. The lack of rain is a disaster for those of us who depend on wheat,” Muhammad Fiaz, a farmer from the Vehari area of Punjab Province told IRIN.

Janab kam se kam date to check kar liya kijiye.ek saal hone wale hai iss news ko.Main bhi kahoon ki abhi 2-3 maheene pahale pani-hi-pani tha ab ekdum se sookha kahan se pad gaya.

 

[ajtr]

cross-posting as it relates to IWT dispute too.

India links Siachen demilitarisation to progress on Mumbai attacks​

By Khalid Mustafa
ISLAMABAD: In a major breakthrough, India has agreed to demilitarise the Siachen Glacier and resolve the Sir Creek issue provided ‘reasonable’ progress is made on the Bombay attacks.

The Siachen Glacier is the second longest glacier of the planet that regulates the climate in the region and is also the water tank for both Pakistan and India. India showed its willingness during the three-day dialogue with Pakistan held in Dubai under Track-II diplomacy on December 3-6. Noted international experts also attended the meeting.

India acknowledged that its troops’ presence on the Siachen Glacier played a major role in its fast melting, putting the agrarian economy of Pakistan at stake. Experts of both sides will send to their respective governments their recommendations on demilitarising the Siachen Glacier and for joint watershed management in Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh to reinstate the degraded environment for sustainable flow in rivers that also include Jhelum and Chenab Rivers, for the initiation of an official dialogue to develop a framework for the implementation of the proposed measures. Former chief secretary Ashok Jaitley, General Ashok Mehta and Brigadier Gurmeet Kanwal represented India at the talks while General Hamid Khan, Ayesha Siddiqa, General Moin Uddin Haider, former foreign secretary Tanvir Ahmad Khan, Rahimullah Yusufzai, Arshad H Abbasi represented Pakistan. Sectray Saarc Muhammad Iqbal Tabish also participated in the talks.

The News had highlighted on November 26 and 29 that the Siachen Glacier could disappear in future, as major cracks, streams, lakes and even rivers had appeared in the glacier mainly because of the ‘human intervention’ much before the Cancun climate conference that was currently held in Mexico.

Although, Pakistan’s delegation that attended the Cancun moot on climate failed to highlight the issue of the fast melting Siachen Glacier, but during the dialogue under Track-II diplomacy, experts from Pakistan succeeded in highlighting the issue and prevailed with arguments due to which Indian water experts, intelligentsia and the international community acknowledged the fact that the cause of these cracks was not global warming; rather it was the presence of the Indian Army on the Siachen Glacier since 1984. The glacier is melting at an unprecedented rate and this has already been reported. The melting has been attributed to the deployment of troops and establishment of permanent cantonments.

Both sides in the Dubai talks also developed an agreement that an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for all trans-boundary hydropower development projects should be carried out. This is allowed under the provisions of Annexure ‘D’ and should be conducted before physical execution of projects and India ought to send all the EIA reports to Pal-EPA for comments, reservation and mitigation measures, if any.

India has also agreed for joint watershed management in Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh to reinstate degraded environment for sustainable flow in rivers that also include Jhelum and Chenab Rivers. Reports have appeared in the Pakistani media that water flows in these rivers has decreased manifold. Both these rivers play a pivotal role in irrigating the province of Punjab, the food basket of the country.

When contacted, General (retd) Hamid Khan, who participated in the Dubai dialogue, confirmed that India had agreed to demilitarisation of the Siachen Glacier and resolution of Sir Creek but linked it with progress on the Mumbai attacks. The Indian side has agreed to submit its recommendations on demilitarisation of Siachen to its government. This is really a positive development.

According to water expert Arshad H Abbasi, who also participated in the Dubai talks, the watershed of the two rivers in Kashmir has been destroyed because of the massive cutting of trees by the Indian troops to apprehend the freedom fighters. Now India has agreed to jointly develop and monitor the watershed of the said rivers in held Kashmir.

The joint statement issued after the Dubai dialogue, a copy of which is exclusively available with this scribe, says: “It is a matter of immense satisfaction that Indian water experts, intelligentsia and international community have acknowledged and endorsed the following steps of cooperation between the two nations under the domain of Real Time Water Monitoring Quality and Quantity: i) To preserve Siachen and other Himalayan glaciers, it is the only effective strategy to declare protected areas and immediate demilitarisation from Siachen should be done immediately to save the second longest glacier of planet; ii) An EIA for all trans-boundary hydropower development projects should be carried out. This is allowed under the provisions of Annexure ‘D’ of treaty and should be conducted before physical execution of projects and India ought to send all EIA reports to Pal-EPA for comments, reservation and mitigation measures if any; iii) Independent Indus Water Commission (IWC) must be reinforced with experts of international independent agencies such as UNEP, World Bank and working of new IWC should be benchmarked with organisations dealing in similar nature of task such as Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), Mekong Rivers Commission, International Commission for the Protection of the Danube; iv) Joint Watershed in Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh to reinstate degraded environment for sustainable flow in rivers.

“The aforementioned points were deliberated upon and there was a unanimous agreement on them. This has to be sent to respective governments for the initiation of an official dialogue to develop a framework for the implementation of the proposed measures. This is the only way to consolidate the linkage between the two countries, with respect to trans-boundary dialogues.”

 

[ajtr]

Jamaat Ali Shah sacked: Did Majidullah finally get his man?​

Thursday, December 16, 2010


By Khalid Mustafa
ISLAMABAD: In a highly unexpected move, the erstwhile Commissioner Pakistan Indus Water, Syed Jamaat Ali Shah was removed unceremoniously by the federal government, replacing him with Mr Sheraz Memom, an official of Sindh Irrigation Department who reportedly has no workingknowledge of the intricacies of water related issues with India in the light of Indus Waters Treaty, The News has learnt.

The development comes at a critical juncture when Pakistan has already moved the International Court of Justice (ICJ) over the controversial Kishanganga project (in Jhelum valley in Kashmir), being built by India with a controversial design, and the process to constitute ICJ is about to get completed.

After the constitution of arbitration, the role of Mr Jamaat, an experienced hand at such issues, would have attained immense importance because of his established expertise on Indus Water Treaty matters.

According to a highly informed source, Mr Shah had been replaced because of “his persistent differences with Assistant Advisor to Prime Minister on Water, Mr Kamal Majidullah on some sensitive water issues”. Mr Kamal Majidullah, reportedly enjoying close links with Presidency, has used his clout with the Presidency in removing Mr Shah.

The source claimed that Mr Majidullah, had been exerting pressure on Ministry of Water and Power to change Mr Shah for the last two years, but the former secretary of Water and Power Mr Shahid Rafi had not entertained such pressure.

A top functionary of the Ministry of Water and Power told The News that the decision to remove Mr Shah was not taken by Ministry of Water and Power, rather “it came from the very top”, implying presidency pressure.

When contacted, Syed Jammat Ali Shah confirmed his removal and said that he received a verbal direction from Ministry of Water and Power about my release from the post at 3.30 pm. “However so far I haven’t received a written order to this effect.”

He said that he was grateful to the Ministry of Water and Power which had extended him full cooperation in his fight with India on water issues. To a question, Mr Shah while mentioning his dismissal from the pivotal post without any reason said that it was the government’s prerogative to take any such administrative measure.

When contacted, Mr Kamal Majidullah said he had no role in removing Syed Jamaat Ali Shah saying: “This is the Ministry of Water and Power that would have taken this decision”, adding, “However, I am getting this news from you for the first time, and since I’m in some official meeting in Karachi, so after the meeting I will respond to you after knowing about this development.” When asked if it were the proper time to sack Mr Shah when Pakistan is going to fight its case against India on Kishanganga project, he said that this is the decision of the government of Pakistan to move the International Court of Justice and it has nothing to do with presence and absence of the Mr Shah as Commissioner of Pakistan Indus Water, adding in an irritated tone, “Anyway, no one is indispensable”.

According to the official sources that Mr Kamal Majidullah is opposed to building of dams on Indus river and he had also developed serious rifts with Wapda Chairman Mr Shakil Durrani in this regard.

 

[ajtr]

Pakistan and India in Dam Building Race — Interpreting the Indus Waters Treaty​

November 30, 2010
A new era of dam building brings uncertainty to the 50-year-old water truce between India and Pakistan.

By Brett Walton
Circle of Blue
In Kashmir’s Neelum Valley, part of which is controlled by India and part by Pakistan, a high-stakes engineering race is taking shape. The rival countries are building hydroelectric power plants on the Neelum River, an Indus River tributary that has long been a source of agricultural and geopolitical strife.
Now a half-century old treaty, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), that governs water relations in the shared river basin is under stress as never before. Depending on how the treaty is interpreted in an ongoing legal case, the first side to finish its dam–either India’s Kishanganga project or Pakistan’s Neelum-Jhelum project–could gain a plum prize: priority rights on the Neelum.

With water near the top of Pakistan’s foreign policy priorities and with so many other flash points in the region pivoting on the water issue –Kashmir, terrorism, Afghanistan– there is every indication that the countries are entering a tumultuous period in the treaty’s history.
Signed in 1960 to allocate the basin’s water, the IWT is widely cited as a model of exemplary cooperation in an often fractious bilateral relationship. But because of India’s development plans, there is reason to believe that old amity is being supplanted by mistrust and suspicion. Discord over water pits India’s drive for electrical power against Pakistan’s vast irrigation needs and vulnerable geopolitical position on the river system.
The legal skirmishing is just beginning. Pakistan filed a ‘dispute’ in May 2010 against the Kishanganga project–the third and highest category of contention in the treaty’s language. A seven-member international arbitration panel is being assembled to hear the case, the first to be taken to such a level. The ruling isn’t expected for several years. Depending on how the panel decides, the existence of the Kishanganga project could become the latest escalation for political tensions in the subcontinent.
The case marks the second time in the last five years that upper-level conflict resolution procedures have been invoked. The 450-megawatt Baglihar hydropower plant was the first case to be resolved by a neutral expert, who ruled in favor of India in the key issue of spillway design. The current dispute is the first to be heard by an arbitration panel–India’s hydroelectric ambitions seem to guarantee that it will not be the last.
Robert Wirsing, a professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service in Qatar who studies South Asian water issues, says India is considering building 33 dams on parts of the Indus and its tributaries granted to Pakistan. India is allowed to use a small portion of the rivers for storage projects, but the distrust between the countries and the scale of development leave much to worry about, he said.

“Most [dams] are in the planning stage,” Wirsing told Circle of Blue, “and some will never be built. But that’s a lot of stuff up there. And that’s the problem.”
“There is a comforting notion,” he added, “that this was a really good treaty, and in my judgment it is. It’s a phenomenal piece of work. But it’s unrealistic because the Indians haven’t really gotten started [building dams]. And they have now started big time.”
An Agreement Borne from Division
The new dams being built in a contested region on the Neelum incorporate technically complex, wide-bore tunnels that are several dozen kilometers long. Both are estimated to be six to eight years from completion. In the meantime, the wrangling for the river is being litigated under the conflict resolution mechanisms stipulated by the IWT.
The treaty’s genesis dates to partition. When the British Raj left India in 1947 and Pakistan was sliced from its western provinces, division of the Indus basin waters was not well considered in the rush to leave. This was a major problem as it left Pakistan at India’s mercy for irrigation deliveries during a time of deep animosity. For years after partition, troops from both countries were garrisoned at canal headworks along the border. The irrigation system they watched with eye and gun is the largest such agricultural scheme in the world, roughly 30 million hectares total–60 percent of which lies in Pakistan.

A compromise called the Standstill Agreement was enacted in the fall of 1947, keeping water allocations as they were before partition. When the agreement expired on March 31, 1948, India promptly withheld water deliveries to Pakistan on two main irrigation canals the very next day.
Several interim agreements were signed without a satisfactory conclusion. Further negotiations were stalling when David Lilienthal, a former chairman of the Tennessee Valley Authority, wrote an article in Collier’s in 1951 suggesting the problem could be solved through technical and economic evaluations. Lilienthal recommended that the World Bank play a role as a neutral facilitator. Lilienthal’s friend, Eugene Black, president of the World Bank at the time, read the article and decided to give it a try.
At the time, the World Bank was a relatively young institution, less than a decade old, and feared that perpetual conflict between two of its principal clients would endanger its lending programs in the region, Salman M. A. Salman, a Word Bank water law expert, told Circle of Blue.
Negotiators focused on key disagreements about allocations, technical specifications, and financing. The deal that emerged granted India primary use of the eastern rivers of the basin (Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej) and Pakistan the same rights to the western rivers (Chenab, Indus and Jhelum). Both sides were also permitted nonconsumptive rights to the other country’s three rivers–Pakistan was allotted agricultural use on the Ravi, while India was given restricted storage capacity for hydropower development on all three Pakistan rivers, minding that large amounts of water are not retained or redirected. Storage restrictions were crucial for Pakistan to feel secure that India would not be able to manipulate river flows.

The allocations meant that water rights and land use patterns were thrown out of historical balance. To move its new water sources to the fields in Punjab and Sindh provinces, Pakistan would need to build two mega-dams, five barrages, and eight linking canals–at a total cost of US$1 billion 1960 dollars.
The money to reconstruct the canal system came from several sources. India paid $174 million and Pakistan offered a symbolic token, but the lion’s share came from the United States and a group of five other Western countries in the form of grants and loans.
With one particularly long and pointed thorn removed, peace, it seemed, now had a chance.
At a news conference in Washington D.C. preceding the signing ceremony in Karachi in September 1960, President Dwight Eisenhower remarked that it was “one bright spot…in a very depressing world picture.”
Hungry for Energy
The question now is whether or not the treaty will hold.
India, like a child without vitamins, lacks sufficient energy resources to grow at the pace the country desires. The peak electricity supply–125,000 megawatts–fell 12 percent short of demand in 2005 and 2006. Electrical capacity must grow 10 percent annually to keep up with demand, according to a study by the Asian Development Bank. These figures reflect just those with electrical access; nearly 40 percent of Indian homes, some 400 million people, do not have reliable electricity. As India grows, extending grid coverage will be a priority. But India has already fallen behind on its Power-for-All Plan, which would add 78,000 MW by 2012.
In India, hydropower generates 32,000 MW and comprises a quarter of the nation’s energy capacity. The country has the potential for 84,000 MW, but only one-fifth of that has been developed. The most promising sites, however, are located in contested regions–in the northeast, where there is a border dispute with China over Arunachal Pradesh, and in Jammu and Kashmir, through which the Indus flows.

Kashmir presents conflicting pressures on both the domestic and international fronts, says Uttam Sinha, a research fellow at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis, a hawkish Indian think tank funded by India’s Ministry of Defense.
Kashmiris demand that the Indian government build more dams to speed up local development, but those dams come at the expense of relations with Pakistan, Sinha told Circle of Blue.
Many in Jammu and Kashmir (JK) feel that their interests are superseded by Pakistan’s under the IWT. The Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir says that the state was not fully compensated by the national government for economic losses created by the IWT. In October, the JK Legislature passed a bill to tax water used to generate power. The burden will fall mainly on the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation, India’s national utility.
The Race is On
Pakistan’s 969-MW Neelum-Jhelum project (NJP) is 160 kilometers downstream from the Kishanganga project and is located on a tributary of a river granted to Pakistan under the IWT. A 28-kilometer tunnel will divert water from the Neelum to the NJP dam’s powerhouse. The engineering firm that won the US$1.5 billion contract, China Ghazoba Group of Companies, has slowed down construction because of inefficient tunnel-boring machines, according to Pakistani media reports. The project will be completed in 2018, two years behind schedule, at the current pace.
This has drawn much ire from Pakistani officials because India may gain priority rights on the Neelum with the Kishanganga project, with current target date of 2016.
The relevant section of the IWT is annexure D, paragraph 15, clause iii, which allows India to divert waters from tributaries of the Jhelum to another tributary only to the extent that it does not adversely effect an existing use in Pakistan.
If Pakistan’s NJP is first to the line, it can establish a pre-existing use on the river and claim that India’s planned diversion will cause it undue harm, said Neda Zawahri, a political science professor at Cleveland State University, in an interview with Circle of Blue.
Pakistan argues that the Kishanganga project will reduce flows by 15 percent to 20 percent and limit the NJP’s power-generating potential, resulting in an annual loss of US$400 million.

A dispute has already been registered under the IWT. Stephen Schwebel, a former president of the International Court of Justice, was selected in October to lead the seven-member arbitration panel.
Historically, conflicts have been worked out by the Permanent Indus Commission, a bilateral body. For example, disagreements over the design of Salal Dam were settled this way in the 1970s.
The Baglihar Dam controversy in 2005 was taken to a second level of adjudication, which is mediation by a neutral expert. Pakistan objected that the dam did not meet the treaty’s design specifications for spillways, intakes, and gates. In its rebuttal, India claimed that new designs were needed to deal with siltation problems.
The World Bank-appointed expert Raymond Lafitte, a Swiss engineer, ruled in favor of India on three of six objections. Robert Wirsing, the Georgetown professor, thinks Lafitte missed an opportunity to hit on a solution that would balance technical considerations with the spirit of the treaty.
“His concern was that this be a good dam,” Wirsing told Circle of Blue. “Of course, that ran right up against the Pakistani feeling that what was important was the treaty and the treaty’s purpose, which was conflict prevention.”
John Briscoe, a former World Bank water adviser and now a professor at Harvard, argues that the ruling reinterpreted the treaty to mean that the physical limitations no longer applied in light of modern technical standards, removing Pakistan’s main protection against India meddling with the river flows.
Resolution of the Kishanganga dispute will take several years. In the meantime, debate will continue about how well the Indus Waters Treaty can stand up to new circumstances.
Cleveland State professor Zawahri thinks both sides still benefit from the agreement: “As long as they continue to use the conflict resolution mechanisms available in the treaty, the treaty will survive. So I don’t see this dispute as the end of the Indus Waters Treaty. On the contrary, both states have an interest in maintaining it.”
Wirsing is less optimistic: “If this panel decides that India’s Kishanganga project is okay and that Pakistan has to swallow this one too, that will, I think, drain the Pakistanis of any lingering enthusiasm for this treaty and its prospects for defending them against dams planned in India.”

 

[ajtr]

Kishanganga arbitration to start mid-Jan​

Over six months after Pakistan decided to move an international court of arbitration to resolve the dispute over the 330-MW Kishanganga hydro-electric project in Jammu and Kashmir, a seven-judge Bench is slated to start the arbitration proceedings from January 14 in the Hague.
Justice Stephen M Schwebel, who heads the Bench, is learnt to have written to India and Pakistan, asking them to start the proceedings.

Incidentally, this is the first case referred to international arbitration under the provisions of the Indus Water Treaty, 1960. Earlier, India and Pakistan had sought the services of a neutral expert appointed by the World Bank to resolve their differences over the 450 MW Baglihar dam under construction on the Chenab river.

The Bench — comprising Justice Stephen M Schwebel (head), Justice Sir Franklin Beman, Prof Howard S Wheater, Justice Bruno Simma, Jan Paulsson, Justice Peter Tomka and Lucius Caflisch — has three neutral umpires, including the head of the Bench, and four arbitrators nominated by India and Pakistan.

While both sides had nominated two arbitrators each during the summer itself, they failed to arrive at a consensus over the nomination of three neutral umpires which, according to the provisions of the Indus Water Treaty, should be the head of the Bench (a legal expert), a technical expert and one more legal expert.

Subsequently, both countries requested UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon to nominate the head of the Bench. After a lottery, both sides separately requested the Rector of the Imperial College of Science and Technology, London, to nominate a technical expert along with sending a separate request to the Lord Chief Justice of England to nominate the other legal expert.

Noted lawyer and expert on international law Shankar Das and legal luminary Fali S Nariman, both of whom had argued India’s case in the Baglihar dam issue, are likely to represent India, supported by a clutch of foreign counsel.

 

[ajtr]

Kishanganga hydropower project​

‘Govt should mull better selection for pleading case at COA’

By Razi Syed

KARACHI: Pakistan should now seriously consider appointing patriotic and real water management experts to take up its case before International Court of Arbitration (COA) against India over construction of Kishanganga Hydropower project on river Neelum in violation of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty.

In the backdrop of the removal of permanent Indus Water Commissioner, Jamat Ali Shah from his seat, the government has to justify the removal.

Pakistan has the right to oppose the Kishanganga project because its diversion will reduce by 16 percent the power generation capacity of the 969-MW Neelum-Jhelum power project on the same river downstream Muzaffarabad in Azad Kashmir, an official of Ministry of Water and Power told Saturday.

“How can a person on an important seat oppose the facts and shoulder with the opponent side, as on many occasions Jamat could not come up to the government’s expectations on water issues with India,” he maintained.

He said due to the poor handling of the case with India as well as at COA, Pakistan could not gain points in favour of its case, only because of a team of jurists — not sincere from the start.

He said Neelum-Jhelum power project in case of losing the case in COA, will face a loss of more than Rs 6 billion every year.

“Government should select pure people for pleading its case as the time has come and any delay would only help India,” official said. Deputy Water Commissioner, Sheraz Jamil Memon reported to the Establishment Division, and would supervise the vacant set. He was working as Pakistan’s commissioner at the (Pak-India) Permanent Indus Commission.

The COA would soon take up Pakistan’s case against India over construction of Kishanganga Hydropower project on river Neelum in violation of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty.

The development took place in the background of an ongoing discord between Jamat and Prime Minister’s adviser on Agriculture and Water Resources, Kamal Majidullah over selection of a panel of lawyers and Pakistan’s lead jurist to defend Islamabad case before the court.

The government finally decided in favour of James Crawford to plead Pakistan’s case on Kishanganga, but relieved other lawyers. Majidulalh and deputy attorney general K K Agha are now leading the government team. Pakistan and India have agreed on the selection of two arbitrators each for the seven-member court of arbitration, but have failed to agree on the appointment of three arbitrators belonging to engineering and law to complete the adjudication forum for more than seven months now.

Bhurban Ramasawamy R Iyer, an Indian water management expert has conceded, “The treaty disqualifies the construction of any storage by India on Chenab and Jehlum, but gives some allowance to a very limited extent.” Under the treaty, he said, three Western rivers, Chenab, Jehlum and Indus are allocated to Pakistan and India but no storage can be built on them.

Iyer said India and all its neighbours had seriously strived to find solutions. “We concluded Indus Treaty with Pakistan in 1960 and so far it has withstood stress and strains. Iyer is a former union secretary of water resources and a research professor at the Dehli-based Centre for Policy Research. Most of the independent analysts inclduing an expert and member Sindh Agriculture Forum Shakeel Ahmad said all Pakistanis agree that Pakistan faces a severe water shortage and that some form of water management should be implemented soon.

 

[ajtr]

‘India constructing 250 dams over River Chenab’​

* AJK PM says AJK has hydel power potential of 18,000MW

* 301 points on water channels identified for generation of hydel power

Staff Report

LAHORE: Azad Jammu and Kashmir Prime Minster Sardar Attique Ahmad Khan has said that India was planning to construct about 250 small and big dams over River Chenab that would aggravate the water situation in Pakistan.

Speaking at the Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) on Wednesday, Sardar Attique said, “If the inflows in the rivers continue to decline, people in the cities like Lahore and Karachi may face rationing of water in the near future.”(scaremongering) He said that Azad Jammu and Kashmir had a hydel power potential of 18,000 megawatts that needed to be harnessed. After the raising of the Mangla Dam, work on the construction of 1,000MW Neelum-Jhelum hydel power project had been initiated, he added.

The AJK premier said that some 301 points had been identified on water channels in Azad Kashmir for generation of hydel power while work was in progress at 26 locations. He said his government was committed to facilitating local and foreign investors and had designed an investment protection policy which will promote international investment in the region. He asked the business community of Lahore to invest in AJK, adding that the region had the economic potential to cater to the needs of entire South Asia.

Sardar Attique said that his proposal to convert the Line of Control into a functional “Line of Commerce” had started yielding huge dividends, and hoped that the economic activity would help soothe tempers in the region. He said that the region had a huge potential in the fields of religious tourism, medicinal herbs and timber, and an economic revolution would be brought about through public-private partnership.

The prime minister said that the present AJK government will bring positive economic changes through investment on a large-scale to make the people prosperous. Speaking on the occasion, LCCI President Shahzad Ali Malik proposed establishment of “AJK-LCCI Investment and Trade Promotion Council” having business leaders from both sides as well as prominent Kashmiris from the UK and US. He said that the proposed council, having its secretariat in the Lahore Chamber of Commerce, would be charged with finalising an action plan for the promotion of trade and investment.

Malik said that an LCCI delegation would soon visit Azad Jammu and Kashmir with an objective of further strengthening the existing trade relations. He paid tributes to the AJK prime minister for presenting a 10-point proposal before the United Nations and the Organisation of the Islamic Conference that played a great role in highlighting the plight of the Kashmiri people. He said that establishment of various new state institutions for common good, like the Kashmir Bank, Kashmir Housing Authority, Kashmir Tourism Development Authority, Technical and Vocational Educational Authority, will help in nation building.

The upcoming hydel power projects in Putarend and Mirpur are the prime examples of forward thinking and planning for bringing about a positive economic change in the area, Malik said, adding that this will unleash a new wave of investment, job creation and economic development in the area. He told the AJK prime minister that the LCCI will establish the ‘Pakistan Water Front’, which aims to mobilise all key stakeholders and necessary resources to address the most important issue facing Pakistan today.

 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Pakistan should support India in building all these dams because:

1. These are for the benefit of Kashmiris. Pakistan, being a champion of kashmiris' rights must support the building of these dams.

2. If tomorrow, Kashmir goes to Pakistan, the dams will also go to Pakistan. SO actually India is doing Pakistan a favour by constructing dams for Pakistan.

 

[ajtr]

Kishanganga: Nariman to battle it out with Pakistan​

With Pakistan dragging India to international court of arbitration to resolve the dispute regarding the 330 MW Kishanganga Hydel project in Jammu and Kashmir, the government has started preparing for a legal battle with the first objective to stop Pakistan from getting any interim order or stay on Kishanganga project.
Top government officials from water resources ministry on Friday held deliberations with noted lawyer Fali S Nariman, who is going to lead the Indian legal team, preparing its arguments for various scenarios. Nariman will be supported by international law expert Shankar Das during the hearings in the seven-judge bench international court of arbitration.

Government sources said that India’s efforts, to begin with, will be focussed to stall any attempt by Pakistan to get an interim order to stop the ongoing activities on Kishanganga project. New Delhi fears that Pakistan may choose to drag the case and delay the project indefinitely once it gets a stay order.

India is likely to send a 10-member delegation for the first hearing slated for January 14 in Hague. Apart from Nariman and Shankar Das, the delegation will have Union Water Resources Secretary D V Singh, Chairman of the Central Water Commission A K Bajaj, Indus Commissioner G Aranganathan and his deputy Darpan Talwar, two senior officials from the Ministry of External Affairs — Y K Sinha and Narendra Singh — along with Nariman’s junior Subhash Sharma and K S Nagaraja, executive director of NHPC which is building the Kishanganga project.

Nariman and Shankar Das had offered their services to the government during the resolution of differences over the construction of Baghlihar hydel project after Pakistan took it to World Bank for resolution through a neutral expert. Nariman had led the Indian team that had argued before World Bank appointed neutral expert Raymond Laffite. The case which was referred to neutral expert in 2005 was resolved only in 2007 with Indian side winning the case.

However, unlike Baglihar, this case is different as it is the first time that any issue under the Indus Water Treaty has gone to international court or arbitration. The differences between India and Pakistan over Baglihar were a level below the dispute on Kishanganga. That’s why the Baglihar issue was referred to a neutral expert, who happened to be a technical expert on the issues of multi-purpose hydro-projects.

In this case, Pakistan has raised issue claiming that Kishanganga project would amount to violation of the treaty and raised two legal questions that can be resolved only through an international court of arbitration. Indian side expresses confidence that Pakistan’s claims did not hold much water and it will be able to prove it during the process of arbitration.