PAF & the ramifications of Rafale's sale to India

[_NOBODY_]

there is no evidence that states that we have HQ 9

They're guarding very sensitive areas right now. There was even a thread about this.
@Horus @notorious_eagle @Windjammer

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

We may or may not have them come fly over our area and find out please bring those 100 Million plane

 

[ZEYA]

best option to go with J-10 C after all Chinese j10A &B is going to replaced by a very advance j10C from 2016-2017
J10C is as capable as all 4.5 gen us and European fighter at least if this j10C have a good pilot then u win
But if u r comparing ur baby jf17 whatever the block 1,2,3 with j10C then dude do homework in aerodynamics
Now question is twin engine and single engine if u want to fight with Israel then go for twin engine 4.5 gen
And u want to fight with India go with 4.5 gen single engine because single and double is just like making distance
And chill ur Air Force dude have already worked all option within 4-5 months ur paf will surely disclose what is on the table
What India is doing right is just for containing China not for Pakistan
So chill guys
Go veg try to be cool

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

(1) First of all look inward and reconsider your priorities wrt your economy. JV with a friendly country like China and Turkey can upgrade the prospects of buying a platform above our economical condition.
(2) Rather than being Rafale specific dish out your own needs and go for long term planning as per doctrine. Revise the doctrine and war plans accordingly.
(3) Come out of concept of "Gap Filler" and get firm hand on a platform and that too in good numbers.
(4) Time for experimentation and luck factor is gone. Go for a proven or atleast an old platform which has seen series of upgrades as it will make sure that most of its design flaws (if any) have been rectified.But do not go for any platform whose supply lines are closing shortly.
(5) Go only for a platform which is free of IFs and BUTs and carry not much of strings attached.
(6) While Thunder is a very good replacement of aging Mirages and F-7s we have to bring in upgrades faster esp increasing its hard points (F-16s can be followed as guide line in this regard).
(7) Dont make PAF as comprising just Multirole platforms but go for dedicated bombers and ground attack platforms too.
(8) Give some prefrence to PN too and also a potent aerial cover in regards to a long range platform.
(9) All this would not be accomplished in a day or two so start planning/preparing right from now.

Just to add, Pakistan needs to somehow gain the ability to indigeniously design and produce world class high tech fighter jets. Apart from China, we cannot trust any other nation to give us advanced or quality fighter jets. I'm a layman in this regard, any informed or learned posters can give any suggestions on how this can be achieved?

 

[volatile]

As i said PAF HAS it's contingency plan and countermeasures in place......five years is a long time for developments to take place and then what's the guarantee that all will come to a head in five years.

I beg to differ Sir .This reactive strategy will not work like it worked in 90s simply Geopolitical situation becoming dangerously bi polar and Indian greater ambition or goal has one blockage i.e Pakistan .Instead of waiting now is the right time to procure some decent platform .As my sense predicts there is going to be a war between India and Pak on Kashmir very soon .As India is backed by US and US wants to stop CPEC simply killing Chinese with Economics .Some fools dont understand CPEC how critical is for China .It's time to equip not strategies (Egypt is one example) .

 

[Zain Malik]

best option to go with J-10 C after all Chinese j10A &B is going to replaced by a very advance j10C from 2016-2017
J10C is as capable as all 4.5 gen us and European fighter at least if this j10C have a good pilot then u win
But if u r comparing ur baby jf17 whatever the block 1,2,3 with j10C then dude do homework in aerodynamics
Now question is twin engine and single engine if u want to fight with Israel then go for twin engine 4.5 gen
And u want to fight with India go with 4.5 gen single engine because single and double is just like making distance
And chill ur Air Force dude have already worked all option within 4-5 months ur paf will surely disclose what is on the table
What India is doing right is just for containing China not for Pakistan
So chill guys
Go veg try to be cool

Some time small things give a big bang.....
Thunder is small (According to u Baby) But when it will give a bang that will blow your mind....

 

[Humble Analyst]

What do you think? What was earliest possible date for India to induct Rafales?
As of today it is one of the most advanced fighter aircraft in the world, till date only 150 are built.
Problem for India is not delay in getting Rafales but delay in getting MRCA as many aircrafts are retiring.

I don't know how much capability Rafale will bring in but when INS Vikrant will be commissioned IN would get an additional order ~45 aircrafts those will be at least Mig29K or F/A SH or Rafale M, so that will be bigger concern if Pakistan want to match. I'm 100% sure that can't be delayed as carrier is almost ready.


I don't know why do you want more & more submarines, AIK most of the navies have 2 to 1 if not 3 to 1 ration for surface ships to submarine ratio evn China which have largest submarine force in numbers.
I don't when submarines have to face P8I or ASW helicopters how many ships needed stop them, aircrafts can be intercepted by aircrafts.

If you care to read I am countering the idea of increasing subs without increasing the surface and air assets. So I do not understand the question. However if the subs are equipped with AIP system and are quieter than they can operate independently provided the enemy assets are not operating freely and in high numbers on surface and in the air.

 

[MystryMan]

I think F-16V would be the most cost effective answer to the Rafael acquisition by IAF. Now instead of going for 10 more Blk-52 PAF should order 18 new F-16V + 18 more second hand/EDA F-16 with V upgrade kit.

 

[Humble Analyst]

@Manticore
Sir,

beyond what @MilSpec Sir said, i would add

If its about a defensive doctrine then

• More JF17s with constant upgradation plan/newer Blocks
• Sophisticated radar network to cover all kind of ingress particularly low altitude ones (a specialty of Rafale)
• Quick Reaction SAM network with focus on indigenous efforts to bolster the seeker technology.
• MRSAM network with Range upto 70 km for all aerial targets with higher probability of kill along with acceptable ECCM capability.
• Focus on NG Jamming network and increase the EW aspect,
• diversifying into more air fields in various locations for better coverage and survival benefits.
• Focus on shield aspect.

if its about offensive doctrine then

• Stop over relying on F16s.. They are good but changing times states they are just above average especially when they go against the likes of Super MKI of 35 standard and Rafales. and newer block upgrades beyond Blk 52 will not be easy to access nor USA is any body's friend to permanently depend upon.
• JF17 blocks needs expediting and more resource allocation. Technology off the shelf needs focus. Round them up quickly.
• in any event of conflict, AWACS, AAR and major Radar sites, aerial fields and stationed combat jets would be first casualty. so,
  • more airfields, runways and make more targets to employ survivability aspect
  • the radar sites gone, AwACS gone implies, you require some of your jets to act as Mini AWACS which the present setup cannot as all would be engaged and nothing to spare to act in this formation along with defensive measures around such missions.
  • Dont depent on satellite, consider also ASAT capabilities of India.
  • AAR gone implies loitering and mission time decrease, so a medium/heavy category need is a must.
• Defensive doctrine focus should remain prudently.
• A longer range stand off missile for taking out Indian AWACS is a must. The present capability in term of precision, range and speed is not enough.

A case to wonder about is suppose we rule out the following jets

• More F16s
• Su35s or Russian jets
• New Chinese 5th Gen Jet

In such a scenario, whats the back up plan?
A wise and long term decision would be to join Turkey 5th gen program TAI FX now itself and contribute with smaller funding but more technical staff to work out a deal for future.

Another could be Pakistan herself launches a new 4.5th/5th Gen program.. You can design your plane and try and seek the maximum off the shelf stuff..An example is Gripen program where most stuff are non indigenous and from the market. Utilise the RD-33/93 family and build your own medium/heavy plane. It will give a big boost to your own MIC. Its a long term plan but its doable. You can part finance it with getting some funding from partners in various forum who may like to be eventual customers. The plan should be that its complementary to Turkey TAI FX program.


The dependency on either the American jets like F16 and Chinese Jets for future may not be the best path. Perhaps its a god sent opportunity where Pakistan can start their own program for a good domestic jet of medium/heavy category.It may take long time but then its the best choice for the country, its MIC and its doctrine.

Very good analysis an I have the same thoughts. F16 bloc 52 are supplied against terrorism so its role against India is not really practical. As the hostilities break the first action PAF need to take is take out FOBs perform SEAD operations including AWACS and AAR while countering enemy similar offensive. India will move back their assets and without deep penetration Pakistan will reach critical thresholds quickly. So either we rely on the final deterrence fully (not wise as we should have the capability to deny air superiority for considerable tie) or we take measures to counter the conventional war possibility. We do not have to match 1 for 1 because India will not deploy more than half of the planes against Pakistan.

I think F-16V would be the most cost effective answer to the Rafael acquisition by IAF. Now instead of going for 10 more Blk-52 PAF should order 18 new F-16V + 18 more second hand/EDA F-16 with V upgrade kit.

F 16 use against India will not be authorized by US so please wake up.

 

[Zain Malik]

I think F-16V would be the most cost effective answer to the Rafael acquisition by IAF. Now instead of going for 10 more Blk-52 PAF should order 18 new F-16V + 18 more second hand/EDA F-16 with V upgrade kit.

Don't fulfil our current requirements...J10-C will be better than this....

 

[Blue Marlin]

As i said PAF HAS it's contingency plan and countermeasures in place......five years is a long time for developments to take place and then what's the guarantee that all will come to a head in five years.

5 years is a long time so how long will it take for the "contingency" plane to start. and what is the contingincy plan the j31 is more thn 5 years off. so what is it?

 

[Max Pain]

Near 700 billion USD in Foreign reserves is a big amount

Coming to the topic, PAF has very well managed its resources, and I admit they did it much much better than us.

Coming to counter it, well the very first thing PAF should do is to make sure it replaces its legacy aircrafts. This needs the most impetus. And this mean Jf17, means keep up producing it.

2Nd thing is F16s, with the experience and other advantages discussed to death in other threads , PAF is in a better position to acquire upto 2 more F16 squadrons .

And then get a strong and upto date Short to Medium Air Defence systems.

With all these , I don't think much resources will be left to acquire a new type of 4.5th gen aircraft. And the next step should be J31.

I also find this approach to be the most logical

 

[salarsikander]

IAF have hands on experience facing the F16 as we have the Singapore ones in India which we test and evaluate but the JF-17 is unknown and if and when it's get's exported to multiple countries, India should try to covertly get 1 or 2 for testing purposes.

Hands on ?? Do you even know what It means?

Have any of your pilots, if any actually, flew in f-16 ?

 

[Dash]

Very good analysis an I have the same thoughts. F16 bloc 52 are supplied against terrorism so its role against India is not really practical. As the hostilities break the first action PAF need to take is take out FOBs perform SEAD operations including AWACS and AAR while countering enemy similar offensive. India will move back their assets and without deep penetration Pakistan will reach critical thresholds quickly. So either we rely on the final deterrence fully (not wise as we should have the capability to deny air superiority for considerable tie) or we take measures to counter the conventional war possibility. We do not have to match 1 for 1 because India will not deploy more than half of the planes against Pakistan.


F 16 use against India will not be authorized by US so please wake up.

That is the most absurd argument that US will not authorize F 16 against India.

Pakistan in all possibility will make sure that the last grain of resource is dried off before it goes nuclear. Without F 16 PAF is handicapped against an Indian offensive and it will use it.

The next big question is how? But that will depend on who goes berzersk first.

 

[Humble Analyst]

That is the most absurd argument that US will not authorize F 16 against India.

Pakistan in all possibility will make sure that the last grain of resource is dried off before it goes nuclear. Without F 16 PAF is handicapped against an Indian offensive and it will use it.

The next big question is how? But that will depend on who goes berzersk first.

That is the most valid argument as Pakistan paid a heavy price in 1965 ad 71 for using F104s and F86 against India and had to buy spares from black market after the ban placed by US. So what is absurd here?????