PAF & the ramifications of Rafale's sale to India

[Syed Asif Bukhari]

Near 700 billion USD in Foreign reserves is a big amount

Coming to the topic, PAF has very well managed its resources, and I admit they did it much much better than us.

Coming to counter it, well the very first thing PAF should do is to make sure it replaces its legacy aircrafts. This needs the most impetus. And this mean Jf17, means keep up producing it.

2Nd thing is F16s, with the experience and other advantages discussed to death in other threads , PAF is in a better position to acquire upto 2 more F16 squadrons .

And then get a strong and upto date Short to Medium Air Defence systems.

With all these , I don't think much resources will be left to acquire a new type of 4.5th gen aircraft. And the next step should be J31.

well bro, F16 can hardly engage 300 + su 30 . a new platform is needed to lower the burden on F16. SAM is not such effective bcoz it can also shot down friendly ac.

 

[SrNair]

The point 4 mentioned in the OP would be an ideal choice for PAF .
PAF can easily get 4.5 gen aircrafts like J 10 from China .It would be enough for a good defence .
Another most viable option is SAM systems ,copies of S 300 and modern variety SAMs Turkey would be enough for a good a challenge against Dassault Rafale .
IAF narrowed down the MMRCA bid after rigorous testing . All major companies around the world participated in the
deal .IAF benchmark was too high and cost was also a problem .Though EF was better than Rafale ,we opted for Rafale because we already have mirages in our inventory and we have to deal with only one nations ,France .She always supported us in difficult times and that is finally paid off .
What I am saying is that Rafale is far better than Su 30 MKI .So it capability would be twice as that of MKI and PAF should seriously think about impenetrable SAM systems .

 

[MKC]

Forget J10 bcoz both J 10 and F 16 fall in same category. to be honest, Su 35and j 10 cant counter Rafael. Both JF17 and Gripen NG also falls in same category ( I mean after future upgrades it will become equal to Gripen). 5th Gen aircraft will take lot of time. Keeping in view current scenario and PAF requirements, the only aircraft which is on par Rafael and also suits PAF needs is EF TYPHON . PAF should induct EFT in small numbers to counter Rafael. if we join hands with Saudis, then money will be no issue.

Su35 is best option as I know if Russians give you, if you have money Russians don't refuse you, also India may not say as Russia will get money.
But saying Saudis will finance your defence budget to match India, I doubt, they can give some money to fight terror or during time but at this time I don't think so.
Try India have inducted Raafales so we should at least induct some Su35 please give us some money.
Let's say take loan? I haven't heard Saudis are giving you any loan for development & for defence purchases you know, also think about people, as loan are burden already.

The Mig29 fleet as of now is being upgraded and will not be retired. Rafales will replace the non-upgraded Mig27s first.

Refer to post #37. Thanks.

Yes, first thing is to replace Mig27 fleet but Mig29 also need replacement, only 36 Rafales can't replace all of them if we assume Mig21 will be replaced by Tejas.

and what time will these upgrades take? we cant wait for decades. by the way, how a single engine and light combat aircraft Gripen will able to compete with dual engine Rafael in terms of loiter time and load carrying capacity? in case of PAF ,forget su 35 bcoz india operates 300 + flankers and its enough to feed the Russian bear. Similarly , the both F 16 and J 10 falls in same category i.e both are medium multirole ac. keeping in view , the cost of new infrastructure and pilot training , the induction of J10 is impossible . that is why , paf is concentrating on F 16.

If any aircraft can't match Su30 or Rafalein quality that doesn't mean you should induct it.

Saudis are currently funding the all recent needs of Egyptian forces

I didn't know that, why don't you try?

 

[Blue Marlin]

well if something needs to be done to counter the rafale there's two things that need to be done.

a counter platform and a high altitude sam system.

a sam system would provide a simple aerial denial area. now the only option here is chinese. but a sam system does have its weaknesses. saturation attacks, stealth arm attacks and cyber attacks.

counter platforms. now theres the su-35 . its got a long loitering time in comparison to that of the su-30mki got the ability to hold a large amount of weapons, cheaper western equivalents. now this this was brought up and the pakistani offacial said it not as good as western aircraft.
the typhoon will be as good as the rafale and better in a lot of other aspects too. the typhoon is an air superiority fighter where as the rafale is kind a multi role fighter and has the air to ground advantage which is not as big as the typhoon. the meteor missile is a beast coupled with the asraam and the iris-t its like a lord in the sky. the newer trance 3b typhoon will be superior than the rafale. as its more "aerodynamically enhanced" got more powerful engines which have 3d thrust vectoring. more composites. etc.... but this new stuff means its ridiculously expensive. thought it would be the most advanced aircraft on the market.
the f16 blk 60/v this would be the easiest option you have the type already and the facilities are there too, so its pretty much inducting it. but there the issue of dependence on the usa for supporting the fleet.
the j10 series is an option thats certainly cheaper and easier to acquire but then there the problems of engine reliability and not knowing the quality of the tech.

now that i have said all of this. none of it will happen. why? money.
so the other option is upgrading the jf-17 and buying more f16's new or used.

 

[Zain Malik]

Anything else you want? Seriously come up with something logical

Whats in it is illogical....????

 

[_NOBODY_]

I think PAF is not willing to induct another American platform due to the fear of sanctions which leaves Eurofighter Typhoon as the only option to counter Rafale but Typhoon is expensive and it is a joint venture of four countries and one of them is Germany so it can be troublesome. If we ever bought Su-35 then it would be for the navy not for the air force. If PAF wants to induct another American platform then clearly F/A-18E/F Super Hornet is not good enough but F-15 is, but unlike F/A-18E/F Super Hornet F-15 is expensive as well. J-31 is under development and J-10 is not better than F-16 . So what do you gentlemen think ?
@Horus @WebMaster @Manticore @The Eagle @Quwa @Windjammer @Zarvan @C130 @ACE OF THE AIR @That Guy @somebozo @Irfan Baloch @HRK @Paksanity

 

[AMCA]

I herd the Indian Rafale hoo haa when I was in diapers. I managed so stop being in diapers and wear pants. Now I got plenty of grey hair,but still no Rafale in IAF.
I will believe when I see it in Indian colours.

Wow you knew about MMRCA in diapers? Cool!! Man treat your premature graying coz technically you are not more than 18 years old and if you advocate then I will have to consider you wore diapers for too long.

TO the topic: A good yet cheap air defense system would be the best bet of PAF at this time with the kind of budget and economy Pakistan is left with.

 

[Tipu7]

I have few answers and few suggestions..........

1--What is PAF's priority [ Land defence,Sea denial, deep attacks with heavy bombs or smart ammunitions ] ?

Pakistan top priority is replace legacy aircrafts with Jf17 and F16s while keeping a few squadron of Top quality aircraft as sharp edge. We are operating couple of SAM systems and searching for more from Russia and South Africa. So clearly by time Rafale arrive they have to face new level of threat from Pakistan in the form of Medium/long range and High altitude SAM systems.

For sea Daniel we are working fine. We cannot beat Indian navy but sure we can gather enough power to defend our Sea shore and avoid naval blockage.
1: Subs with AIP. Got five, working for 8 more to add/replace the existing fleet.
2: Surface vessels, particularly Missile Boasts have important role to play against Surface vessels of Indian army.
3: Air force squadron armed with anti ship missile. Recently we replaced F7P with Jf17 in 2nd squadron. Armed with BVR and C802 antiship missiles, this squadron provide capable punch against IN Mig29 as well as surface vessels. In future we can replace Mirages (Exocet missile) with Jf17 and introduce CM400 AKG for enhanced anti ship role.
4: In the form of ''Azaab Missile'' we are working/deploying on dedicated Coastal defense as last line to defense to avoid any blockage.

(Below Jf7 with C802 & CM400 AKG)

2--Can jf-17 completely meet those demands/doctrine even after aesa/ifr probe/composites/strengthened structure/tweaked engine?

Yes why not. Work on IFR probe installation is going on, AESA will arive in Blk 3. Enhanced use of Composite in air frame is expensive but offer More strength, lower radar signature and light weigh increasing the performance of aircraft. Better version of RD93 with more thrust along with composite use in frame can increase T/W ratio with prominent margins.

3--If not what are the options and possible numbers? Is the cost of buying/ training/maintenance/spare parts/ years to build strategy/ availability rate worth the hassle?

These are the best options available. Produce and improve Jf17 and induct Second hand F16s along with New ones if possible. Second hand F16 with MLU is fast and effective way of replacing old air craft with capable platform.
One thing is worth considering that we need appropriate upgrade for our both Jf17 and F16. Our Jf17 need better targeting pod, I do wish for Asalpod as it offer us Stand off and precise strike capabilities at appropriate cost and in a effective way. More over there is need of Installing IFR probe ASAP, as we need to free two hard points from Drop tanks inorder to carry more air to ground munitions. I don't know ECM capabilities of Jf17, but we need to keep an eye on international market and if necessary integrate ECM pod on external hard point depending upon mission requirement.
AselPod

F16 lack two important attributes. They need High Bore Offsight Missile (HBOS : AIM9X) from USA for better WVR air to air engagements. Also they lack Infra Red Search and Track ability. Something which IAF Mig29, Su30 have and Rafale will have. We cannot integrate IRST in airr frame now, but do carry it in the from of pod at external hard point. Tiger Eye system allow you to carry both Targeting pod and IRST pod at same hard point! Some thing we should try to get from USA.

4--S300 copies vs introduction of another 4.5 gen fighter

We already have and we will have some capable SAM systems in near future. We are looking in markets from China, Italy, Russia, Turkey and South Africa for required modern SAM systems. As per rumor, Hq9 already exist in our arsenal but if it is not, then it is worth considering that we can follow Hq9 from China when ever we want.

As per 4++ Generation air craft, we do need one with long range and heavy payload. Discussion regarding Su35S is on its way with Russia (initial stages). But it may or may not happen. Two squadron of Su35S will be a big boast in our capabilities of deep strike. Moreover inducttion of Su35 will open doors for more Russian tech like weapon stations for PAF.

5--Should we wait another decade for j31 or should we buy some 4.5 gen fighter instead and develop tactics in the meanwhile

You wait, and you are dead. Its requirement of now and we cannot take ''risk'' of waiting as war never come with warning. We should pursue 4++ Platform (Su35) before even thinking about J31. J31 is long way to go and I seriously doubt that it will be able to qualify as 5th Generation aircraft. India progress in FGFA will decide how early we need a stealth platform in our airforce. Until then, focus on what we have and what we can have in near future with out waiting taking risk for waiting what is in distinct future.

6--To Indian posters, what would you suggest PAF do OTHER than bolstering economy and admitting that India is a super power

Indians can answer better (senior members of course)

7--Is the replacement of 190 old fighters with a BVR capable light fighter sufficient keeping in view Pakistan's economy?

Pakistan is increasing its budget and spending in Defense. General Raheel is conducting meeting with Ishaq Dar time to time for major increment in defense budget as we are lagging behind in many key areas which are needed to be filled as soon as possible. So hope for bit economic support for PAF too.
.
And yes replacement of 190 aircraft is achievable or atleast close to it. Do consider the fact that among those 190 aircraft 16 are already replaced when F7P of Minhas Squadron was replaced with Jf17. F7PG and Mirage Rose will be replaced after 2019 by Block III. So right now as we speak, there are roughly 150 aircraft awaiting replacement by end of 2019.

We are increasing production rate of Jf17 to 24 per aircraft per year and by 2019 we will add another 125 (approximate). If we add two more squadrons of F16 (New/surplus) to achieve target of 110 F16 aircrafts then we can successfully replace huge bunch of legacy fighters. Even without any 4++ Generation aircraft, PAF will become very capable force.

8--J10 and JF-17 may have similar capability but they DON'T have SAME capability. Are the J-10 an ideal replacement for the mirage squadrons?

Say NO to J10 or J10b/c.
That aircraft offer little edge over Jf17 and after replacing legacy fighters we can upgrade our Thunder fleet with modern western avionics by which Jf17 can SURPASS J10 in most fields. So no need for J10 as long as Jf17 production and upgradation is going on in smooth and balanced way.
Do note that J10 will be deployed in PAF only in case of Conflict with India as a short time ability boasters. Just like we saw in case of F5 back in 1971. In normal conditions, this aircraft is now highly unlikely to find its way into PAF.

9--Is there any chance of getting reliable subsystems for jft from the French?

If France and India finalize deal of 36 Rafales then say bye bye to any French sub system in Future for PAF. Although doors for Subsystems from China, South Africa, Turkey, Brazil, Italy, Sweden and Spain will remain open. Its not dead end for PAF.

10--Other than numbers, what capability rafale brings to IAF, which they wont exploit in the su30 including its naval role

Rafales offer many new things to Indian Air force which even Mig29K and Su30MKI don't or can't.

1: AESA radar.
2: Very low RCS
3: A wide array of French avionics and weapon package for existing IAF fighters
4: Very Long range with 3 drop tanks
5: Multiwarhead BVR capability
6: Advance ECM capabilities.

Those 36 Rafales if used properly can become bigger threat than 220 Su30MKI. It is an aircraft slightly bigger than M2K but payload equal to that of Su30 MKI.

11-- Importance of loiter time in war

In case of war, Air crafts are sitting ducks when they are on ground. As enemy always try to hit your air bases and forward operating bases. Short loiter time (IFR absence) mean that aircraft have to land again and again when ever its tanks dry from fuel. With Higher loiter time ( IFR ability) aircraft can remain in air for long time with weapon stations and stay on ''stand by'' for mission instructions, can tarvel more distance and deliver more punch (IFR & CFT free hard points for carrying more weapons/pods instead of drop tanks). So in war, Loiter time is key role as it also reduces the time of reaction against any aggression.

12--Are destroyers, submarines, helicopters, s300 derivatives and cruise missiles the answer?

Answers to what? Indian Air force and Navy? Of course yes.
With bigger ships (Destroyers) you can carry advance long range anti air- anti ship and anti sub systems in Sea away from main land and act as first line of defense with AWACS, Anti Ship Jets and Anti Submarine helicopter can carry out required surveillance.Destroyers can be protected by Light frigates and Sub take role of first offense and can filter any threat coming towards your surface vessel fleet.
Long range-High altitude SAM systems provide you more and better cover from Aerial threats, from jets to cruise missiles and you can move your Sea assets in sea as well as Armored divisions on land under their cover, ruling out any threat of Air force. Presence of Mobile Medium Range SAM systems in armored division can provide you protection from enemy air force even at stand off distance.
Cruise missile are meant to hit those targets which are out of scope of your air force, Pakistan has Land based Cruise missile system (Babur) , working on integration of aerial cruise missiles (RAAD) have Shore based anti ship cruise missile and developing Sub based (nuclear role) as well as ship based (anti ship) cruise missile.
So answers are always here , all it need bit more focus, better policies and ofcourse funds to carry out whole this plan and keep power balance in South Asia.

@Manticore @MastanKhan @WAJsal @Quwa @Bilal Khan 777 @HRK @Irfan Baloch
@Windjammer

 

[Quwa]

The PAF will double down on the JF-17 Block-III. If necessary, it could raise the performance requirements of the Block-III's subsystems, most notably its ECM/EW suite and munitions, especially AAMs. Granted, not the ideal solution, but if done it could position the Thunder as a credible threat.

That said, a heavyweight fighter such as the Su-35 would be ideal, but at this stage, it doesn't seem like we've had much traction. The Eurofighter Typhoon is cost prohibitive. The next set of options would be medium weight fighters, such as the J-10 and MiG-35, but then there's the reality of absorbing the cost of a new platform in-exchange for relatively marginal returns.

At least with the Su-35 one could argue that the payoff of having its range and payload makes the added cost of inducting it worth it, what more do the J-10 and MiG-35 add besides being a bit bigger than the JF-17?

On the other hand, one could also correctly argue that the medium-weight layout of the MiG-35 and J-10 enable them to carry a superior radar and avionics suite compared to the JF-17. One could also get the J-10 on long-term financing from China, and the MiG-35 could have engine commonality with the JF-17.

My opinion is that the PAF should continue sharpening the JF-17. Don't divert funds towards any other medium weight fighter - not even new-built F-16s - and give the JF-17 Block-III the best possible radar, avionics and weapons suite possible. Grab a really good AESA radar, ECM/EW suite, and next-gen AAMs (e.g. A-Darter and a ramjet BVRAAM). And then add another 100 Block-III-based JF-17s.

Beyond that - and if funds permit - go for the Su-35. Acquire a small number and orient your doctrine to use them assymetrically, e.g. as a mini-AEW to accompany JF-17s. Sharpen the stand-off strike element by investing in stealthier ALCMs, longer range glide-bomb kits (especially for Mk-84-class GPBs), and smaller and lighter dual-use ALCM and AShM.

 

[Mav3rick]

The answer to the possibly acquisition of Rafael by IAF cannot be something that is equivalent to the Rafael but something that can get the better of it 9 times out of 10 in air to air combat. It could possibly be the J-31. But the story doesn't just end at a better fighter but also an extremely capable BVR Missile & Radar combo.

PAF requires a platform, Jet + Radar + Missile + EW suites etc., that can detect, attack and shoot down the Rafael 9 times out of 10 before Rafael has a chance to counter attack. J-31 might be able to sneak in close but does it have the right combination of radar and missiles to bring down the Rafael?

 

[Gen Padmanabhan]

I thought it was pretty clear that the IAF would be purchasing 36 jets in order to supplement/replace their MiG-29 fleet. However these Rafales will be maintained/deployed/used are nuances that are insignificant to the technological and tactical boost that they will bestow upon the IAF. Pakistan should quixotically undertake all the points you mentioned, but military funding doesn't grow on trees; they need to calculate which modernization path provides the greatest strategic return on whatever investment they've committed to it.

Maybe you are unaware of some facts, MiG-29 going to serve in IAF well by 2030, Rafale short term requirement to serve as replacement of MiG-27.

 

[Quwa]

The answer to the possibly acquisition of Rafael by IAF cannot be something that is equivalent to the Rafael but something that can get the better of it 9 times out of 10 in air to air combat. It could possibly be the J-31. But the story doesn't just end at a better fighter but also an extremely capable BVR Missile & Radar combo.

PAF requires a platform, Jet + Radar + Missile + EW suites etc., that can detect, attack and shoot down the Rafael 9 times out of 10 before Rafael has a chance to counter attack. J-31 might be able to sneak in close but does it have the right combination of radar and missiles to bring down the Rafael?

Investing in a 5th+ gen program is a no-brainer, and the PAF is conceptualizing its specific needs as we speak, but I think you've alluded to something else as well - the need to invest in avionics and munitions. We've been really complacent on munitions as we've developed the mindset of depending upon the Chinese.

The PAF ought to engage with another - perhaps Turkey or South Africa - and develop next-gen AAMs, and in time, bring the development and production of these systems in-house. This won't be easy as we'll see delays, failures, and challenges along the way, but if we can't keep depending on the outside to always sell us nice stuff for cheap.

Look at Denel's Marlin program, a dual-use 100km AAM and SAM. If we invest in the program, we could have a really good shot at acquiring the technology to produce dual-pulse rockets and modern ARH seekers. Not only that, this could be our opportunity to begin understanding the technology and developing a foundation for new programs down the line.

 

[third eye]

I herd the Indian Rafale hoo haa when I was in diapers. I managed so stop being in diapers and wear pants. Now I got plenty of grey hair,but still no Rafale in IAF.
I will believe when I see it in Indian colours.

A quick check :

On 27 April 2011, after an intensive and detailed technical evaluation by the IAF, it reduced the bidders to two fighters — Eurofighter Typhoon and Dassault Rafale. On 31 January 2012 it was announced that Dassault Rafale won the competition .

Now lets see.. You have Grey hair now & were wearing diapers when you herd ( possible heard) of the Rafale deal.

You seem to have aged a great deal on four years.

Either you were wearing diapers through college and all your youth ( which leaves questions on your intellect & physical condition) or you turned grey when the deal was struck.

Or

This post was a poor attempt at humor where none was needed - being a serious subject.

 

[Zarvan]

I think PAF is not willing to induct another American platform due to the fear of sanctions which leaves Eurofighter Typhoon as the only option to counter Rafale but Typhoon is expensive and it is a joint venture of four countries and one of them is Germany so it can be troublesome. If we ever bought Su-35 then it would be for the navy not for the air force. If PAF wants to induct another American platform then clearly F/A-18E/F Super Hornet is not good enough but F-15 is, but unlike F/A-18E/F Super Hornet F-15 is expensive as well. J-31 is under development and J-10 is not better than F-16 . So what do you gentlemen think ?
@Horus @WebMaster @Manticore @The Eagle @Quwa @Windjammer @Zarvan @C130 @ACE OF THE AIR @That Guy @somebozo @Irfan Baloch @HRK @Paksanity

Euro Fighter and SU-35 are best options. From China we can if diplomatically convince Russia to allow China to sell us from J-11family than it would be great.

 

[Oracle 33]

IAF have hands on experience facing the F16 as we have the Singapore ones in India which we test and evaluate but the JF-17 is unknown and if and when it's get's exported to multiple countries, India should try to covertly get 1 or 2 for testing purposes.