PAF & the ramifications of Rafale's sale to India

[Manticore]

Hahahaha well this is over strictness......

There was a reason why I wrote a template in my first post in this thread. So that new/young members dont post one liners instead have an idea where to take the content of the thread.

You can pick any of the points in my template to discuss or you can discuss all the points briefly yet comprehensively like milspec just did.

Avoid offtopic one liners or you won't be taken seriously. Morover it takes the forum quality down.

 

[Zain Malik]

There was a reason why I wrote a template in my first post in this thread. So that new/young members dont post one liners instead have an idea where to take the content of the thread.

You can pick any of the points in my template to discuss or you can discuss all the points briefly yet comprehensively like milspec just did.

Avoid offtopic one liners or you wont be taken seriously. Morover it takes the forum quality down.

I will try my best.......

 

[sathya]

Forget J10 bcoz both J 10 and F 16 fall in same category. to be honest, Su 35and j 10 cant counter Rafael. Both JF17 and Gripen NG also falls in same category ( I mean after future upgrades it will become equal to Gripen). 5th Gen aircraft will take lot of time. Keeping in view current scenario and PAF requirements, the only aircraft which is on par Rafael and also suits PAF needs is EF TYPHON . PAF should induct EFT in small numbers to counter Rafael. if we join hands with Saudis, then money will be no issue.

Saudis are restructuring to build up economy..
Oil wealth is not sufficient at the moment.

There was a reason why I wrote a template in my first post in this thread. So that new/young members dont post one liners instead have an idea where to take the content of the thread.

You can pick any of the points in my template to discuss or you can discuss all the points briefly yet comprehensively like milspec just did.

Avoid offtopic one liners or you won't be taken seriously. Morover it takes the forum quality down.

 

[MilSpec]

don't ruin their sand castles

It doesn't cost a dime to dream!

Pakistani Military especially PAF has had an amazing track record of managing there assets much better than air forces with much more resources. Mirage 3/5 fleet build up, F16's, JF17, have been exceptional examples of the same. Even the F7PG variant is an exceptional platform.

 

[Akasa]

Rafale seems to be a clear winner in all scenario, is this what you are implying? If PAF has to neutralize Rafale it has to enhance capabilities of JFT + has to procure a proven SAM system + has to procure 4.5 generation jet, and this all is just an interim setup PAF ultimately has to induct a 5th generation jet to cope the beast called Rafale for long term!

A long-term investment in a 5th-generation platform frees up PAF funds for near-term needs while providing its fleet with a force multiplier at around the same time Indian forces induct both the Rafale (in large numbers) and the FGFA (in small numbers). If the PAF feels the need to aim for technological parity, a simple yet effective MLU of its F-16s and JF-17s with AESA radars and new EW suites would be nothing to scoff at.

The 8 points that you have mentioned do not completely describe the situation. Why?

1) The true picture of how many Rafales are actually being bought is still not known.
2) Where are these Rafales be stationed.
3) The kind of war strategy IAF would device for the Rafales.
4) What other assets would be available along with the Rafales.
5) Will the IN also buy Rafale M's if yes then how many and what kind of battle scenario would that make.

The Role of PAF in the beginning was to have a hard hitting force which would have latest and best equipment. After the 1965 war this has become a dream. The threat of sanctions and non availability of advance weapons and delivery systems really limits the capabilities of deep strike and air supremacy that was attained in 1965.

Looking at present or the 2-4 years that PAF has before considerable number of Rafales enter IAF service we can only see that PAF is only capable of denial of airspace over Pakistan. This conclusion is evident from the limited number of F-16s PAF has as compared to SU-30 MKI.

What should be done?
IMO
1) Increase the number of JF-17 blk 3 ASAP.
2) Ask China to expedite the J-31
3) Join some SAM program and build low, medium, and high altitude locally.
4) Join local production of a decent attack helicopter.
5) Increase the number of fast attack boats for coastal defences.
6) Increase the number of Submarines from the planed 13 to 20.
7) Try to purchase Corvettes from Russia with TOT.
8) Make a wall on the Western Boarder with Afghanistan.
9) Upgrade the radar systems.

@Manticore can you change the topic of the post to:

"Ramifications For Pakistan Against The Indian Dream Of Becoming A Super Power"

I thought it was pretty clear that the IAF would be purchasing 36 jets in order to supplement/replace their MiG-29 fleet. However these Rafales will be maintained/deployed/used are nuances that are insignificant to the technological and tactical boost that they will bestow upon the IAF. Pakistan should quixotically undertake all the points you mentioned, but military funding doesn't grow on trees; they need to calculate which modernization path provides the greatest strategic return on whatever investment they've committed to it.

 

[Ankit Kumar 002]

Some one said where the Rafales will be based by IAF will also be a factor.

The Rafales in IAF will be first replacing the non upgraded Mig27 squadrons.

At present there are 5 Mig 27 squadrons.
No 10, No 18, No 22, No 29 And No 222.

Out of these 5, 2 No 18 And No 22 fly Mig27 and Mig27ML , which are not upgraded.

Both of them are based in West Bengal.

Further the news is No22, with Mig27ML aircrafts will be soon retired , mean in a couple of months .

So in all likely hood the first tranche of 36 Rafales will be based in Hasimara AFS and AFS Kalaikunda, both in West Bengal.

Hope this helps.

 

[Akasa]

Simply put F16 and Chinese copies are not going to cut it against Rafale and Su fighters combo India has.

Pakistan has the option to retrofit F-16s with subsystems that are common to later-generation aircraft. Such MLUs could easily bring a legacy airframe's capabilities within the realm of that of the Su-30MKI/Rafale.

I don't know what are the "Chinese copies" you refer to; the PAF's sole option for a Chinese platform would be the J-10C, the technological enhancements of which could very well put it within the league of the Rafale (and perhaps even more so in particular aspects).

 

[Tps43]

First of all 5 gen is not comming before 2030-2 so 15 years from now.We should start to look at another 4.5 gen fighter.
Choices are very few we can have Su 35,EFT but they r expensive so j 10 can be a solution but is highly unlikly so there would be more jf 17 and f 16 which is what paf thinks.Curruntly negotiations are ongoing with the germans for 20 low level radars and some of low level radar units are being relocated.HQ 9 is what paf wants but it would take time.Spada became fully operation in 2015 so we can say till the time hq 9 comes it can gaurd the sky.so according to me
1)speed up production of jf 17
2)get 50-60 more f 16
3)take those j 10
4)if possible su 35 for 2-3 squrdons
total would be =250 jf17+120 f16+50 j 10+60 f 7pg+50 mirage rose=530 birds

 

[Blabla]

I have read a lot of solution even some of them make no logic . PAF next generation jets should be in simple until (2021)( 12 to 24 ) J 20 ,(24 ) SU 35 and (12) SU 34 also develop an SAM enough to be deter-ant this all will cost only 4 to 5 billion dollar Rest spend on Navy and missile

 

[Ankit Kumar 002]

A long-term investment in a 5th-generation platform frees up PAF funds for near-term needs while providing its fleet with a force multiplier at around the same time Indian forces induct both the Rafale (in large numbers) and the FGFA (in small numbers). If the PAF feels the need to aim for technological parity, a simple yet effective MLU of its F-16s and JF-17s with AESA radars and new EW suites would be nothing to scoff at.



I thought it was pretty clear that the IAF would be purchasing 36 jets in order to supplement/replace their MiG-29 fleet. However these Rafales will be maintained/deployed/used are nuances that are insignificant to the technological and tactical boost that they will bestow upon the IAF. Pakistan should quixotically undertake all the points you mentioned, but military funding doesn't grow on trees; they need to calculate which modernization path provides the greatest strategic return on whatever investment they've committed to it.

The Mig29 fleet as of now is being upgraded and will not be retired. Rafales will replace the non upgraded Mig27s first.

Refer to post #37. Thanks.

 

[Akasa]

From Strictly Financial Side and Minimum B ing perspective:
Going with Mirage route , pick up 200 units and making them Thunder Block 2 standard , is more logical. These planes are available in Abundance with old avionics people don't know how to maintain them. Pakistan Airforce , not only fixes the units it has ability to REMAKE them brand new.

Also we make 90-99% repairs of Mirage platform in Pakistan so it is a Jewel in our Air-force (Under appreciated)
We one of 2 countries that can keep the platform running

• Just needs Next Generation Avionics (Avionics/Radar/ HUD / Helmet / Pod)
• Engineering base is in Pakistan
  
• Put high end Chinese Missile on the platform , it will become potent as any platform

Every thing else on plane we make in Pakistan - ALREADY

Mirage units can be picked up in market for 2% of cost of RAFALE
and we already have every thing for this platform

With new avionics package / BVR missile / radar / HUD & Helmet

Not to mention cheap purchase in market we can enhance the Airforce rather cheap
instead of buying 100 million planes

From Strictly Financial Side Thunders make sense:

• Platform matures block 1 to Block 3 , price wise ideal defense platform potent and sufficient
• 100% correct decision
• Block 3 will be a energy Shot in arm for Airforce

We can always make small upgrades with F16 C/D or seek 4 squadrons of F18
from financial prespective


Otherwise going for Brand new deal or platform is ideal if we have cash
> Sukhoi -35
> J11
>F16 C/D
>F18 etc


Many folks assume Pakistan is Afghanistan or Nepal - they don't really understand the Engineering base in country ^_^

Airframes will one day reach their designed lifetime, regardless of the extent of repairs and upgrades implemented to alleviate its inherent aging. This would imply that whatever MLUs and retrofits you've performed on them would only be useful for a rather short time.

It would be a far more sound investment to do these kind of upgrades on new Block 52s or JF-17s, where the strategic and technical impact of these enhancements are not limited by the airframe's life.

Forget J10 bcoz both J 10 and F 16 fall in same category. to be honest, Su 35and j 10 cant counter Rafael. Both JF17 and Gripen NG also falls in same category ( I mean after future upgrades it will become equal to Gripen). 5th Gen aircraft will take lot of time. Keeping in view current scenario and PAF requirements, the only aircraft which is on par Rafael and also suits PAF needs is EF TYPHON . PAF should induct EFT in small numbers to counter Rafael. if we join hands with Saudis, then money will be no issue.

Considering that the Su-35, Gripen NG, and J-10C have upgrade schemes that closely mirror that of the Rafale, I wouldn't be one bit surprised if, barring any discrepancies between domestic and export variants, any of the aforementioned aircraft have capabilities in the same league as the Rafale.

 

[MAB]

And how is this:

F-16 Block 70 a true 4++ Generation aircraft.....
Pakistan can demand them in a large number from US:
View attachment 300779

Anything else you want? Seriously come up with something logical

 

[Syed Asif Bukhari]

Airframes will one day reach their designed lifetime, regardless of the extent of repairs and upgrades implemented to alleviate its inherent aging. This would imply that whatever MLUs and retrofits you've performed on them would only be useful for a rather short time.

It would be a far more sound investment to do these kind of upgrades on new Block 52s or JF-17s, where the strategic and technical impact of these enhancements are not limited by the airframe's life.



Considering that the Su-35, Gripen NG, and J-10C have upgrade schemes that closely mirror that of the Rafale, I wouldn't be one bit surprised if, barring any discrepancies between domestic and export variants, any of the aforementioned aircraft have capabilities in the same league as the Rafale.

and what time will these upgrades take? we cant wait for decades. by the way, how a single engine and light combat aircraft Gripen will able to compete with dual engine Rafael in terms of loiter time and load carrying capacity? in case of PAF ,forget su 35 bcoz india operates 300 + flankers and its enough to feed the Russian bear. Similarly , the both F 16 and J 10 falls in same category i.e both are medium multirole ac. keeping in view , the cost of new infrastructure and pilot training , the induction of J10 is impossible . that is why , paf is concentrating on F 16.

Saudis are restructuring to build up economy..
Oil wealth is not sufficient at the moment.

Saudis are currently funding the all recent needs of Egyptian forces

 

[Ankit Kumar 002]

Saudis are currently funding the all recent needs of Egyptian forces

Near 700 billion USD in Foreign reserves is a big amount

Coming to the topic, PAF has very well managed its resources, and I admit they did it much much better than us.

Coming to counter it, well the very first thing PAF should do is to make sure it replaces its legacy aircrafts. This needs the most impetus. And this mean Jf17, means keep up producing it.

2Nd thing is F16s, with the experience and other advantages discussed to death in other threads , PAF is in a better position to acquire upto 2 more F16 squadrons .

And then get a strong and upto date Short to Medium Air Defence systems.

With all these , I don't think much resources will be left to acquire a new type of 4.5th gen aircraft. And the next step should be J31.

 

[sathya]

we might not be having this discussion,,,if PAF chose j10 instead of jf17.
many touting the acquisition of jf17 as a masterstroke of some sort,to me,it was simply a short sighted decision.
despite being superior to jf17,,thr is no significant cost difference between the two,,j10 being d premiere fighter aircraft in PLAAF has a high probability of evolving as a true 4.5+gen fighter.
looking at the level of cooperation between Pak-China,,,Pakistan cudve got the j10 on gud terms n nos.
i feel,either,Pakistan negotiates very poorly,or ur leaders r out to make some more black money,,,,,,,,,,,u r leasing ur land to China for 40 yrs,,tht gives thm huge benefits,,,,,someone shud seriously file a PIL n find out what r u getting in return.

J 10 was evolving at that time.. Had a riskier concept like LCA
JF 17 was off the shelf solution + it's a joint venture with source codes.

I am not sure if china would have offered source codes for J10 series .