Idk where you get your figures of 600 4th generation jets in IAF inventory. 270 SU30s+60 mig29s+50 mirage 2000+ 36 Rafale= 410-430 fighter jets. PAF has roughly, 140 JF17s+80 F16s+36 J10s= 260-270 4th generation jets. You refused to even answer my point of force posturing. India will never allocated 100% of its forces to the Pakistani border due to threats from China. Even Russia today cannot allocated 100% of its forces in Ukraine due to the threat from NATO. At best India can only allocated 60-70%. Furthermore the majority of Indias population lives far away from Pakistans border. States like Maharastra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Delhi, MP, etc are atleast 500-600 miles away from Pakistans border. Majority of Pakistans population is within 100 miles of the Indian border. Even a child will tell you that Pakistan will mobilize far far quicker and have numerical superiority during most of the conflict.
You went on a tantrum that Russias loses are not what they seem due to western propaganda. That point is def noted but in the day and age of satellite imagery+drone footages+OSINT sources then there are far more than enough neautral sources to throw fire on biased reporting. China+Russia itself has a huge network of satellite+drones. Why have they been unable to build a counter narrative compared to the ukrainians???
The fact with all its resources CHINA HAS REFUSED TO BAIL ITS ALLY RUSSIA OUT IN ANY WAY POSSIBLE. Only thing China has been able to do is buy a lot more cheap oil. China has been unable to provide any military support, any real political support, and even its economic support is self serving... Why is this??? Had Russia been winning and had the upper hand China would have been far more supportive. Your own CCP and Govt see's the writing on the wall.. The russians have been far from successful and at most times ruthlessly incompetent.
You can visit neautral sources such as ORYX who themselves are taking the time to count/validate each and every single russian/ukrainian losses-
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
Russians are taking a pounding. There is a reason the chinese were smart enough decades ago to stop procuring russian equipment. There is a reason that 99% of components built in J11 (chinese copycat of SU30) is Chinese rather than russian.a
Lastly you cannot compare the Vietnam war with the Ukrainian war. Russia and Ukraine are neighbors. The US fought in Vietnam successfully being thousands of miles away. The US had split the country along north/south. Even then US forces showed a high degree of competence. Do you want to compare that to Chinas invasion of Vietnam where the Vietnamese defeated China in a matter of months???
The fact is neither China nor Russia have a great history of winning wars. Russia lost every war in the last 150 years other than WW2 were it won due to mass waves and still lost 15+ million troops. Chinas only semblance of victory was against India in 1962... even the korean war at best china could only achieve a stalemate that to sacraficing millions of troops in mass waves. Today neither Russia nor China have the competitive advantage of being able to sacrafice millions due to large population declines.
The Russians have been unable to even hold the little land they have conquered and any sane intelligence assessment will tell you that the situation for the Russians will become pittiful within the next few months. The Ukranians currently have hundreds of thousands of fighters being trained that will enter their forces within the next few months. Without either mass mobilization or tactical nukes THE RUSSIANS ARE TOAST. Ill give them 2-3 more months max.
So much of this is wrong. Vietnam "defeated" China in the same way Afghanistan "defeated" the USA.
As for neighbor war and power projection, I used the example because US power projection is far and so far ahead of Russia's in fact this is US specialty. Power projection and regime change type wars or occupation and invasion wars against nations the power and size of Iraq as a maximum and even then require allies and regional bases to all go into play. Iraq could not strike a single US regional base. Can the US do this on Iran? No. Because Iran can overwhelm air defences of regional US bases and developing capabilities to even threaten US carriers that are within a certain range.
The Vietnam comparison is still valid because the force brought to the space is roughly equivalent. Russia is not bringing thousands of aircraft to the war in Ukraine. US brought 10s of thousands of aircarft to Vietnam war. The only difference in commentary we can make on this is US power projection is so far superior to Russia and all others. But if we consider that Russia has brought 100 units of strength to this war, we can say that US has brought 200 units of strength to Vietnam, neighbor or power projection falls under a different category. It is still a valid comparison in losses because of the scale of the war, the rest is just how well their logistics are.
Russia would not have received Chinese open support in military terms even if it were winning, especially if it were winning. Why do you assume China ought to bail Russia out? In whatever status of their conflict, China wouldn't get involved unless Russia itself is being invaded by NATO. Only then could I imagine China militarily getting involved and even that is a question.
So you basically created this assumption for your own goals of China must help Russia and if it doesn't offer support you define, then you reach your own conclusions based on this.
Look I see you clearly have a certain world view. I think probably more appropriate to leave this as it is. There is no way we would be able to discuss anything constructively. No more than you could with an Indian person who maintains a certain world view and set of beliefs.
Let's just agree to disagree on fundamentals, on interpretations, on others.
But on topic, you are probably correct in IAF and PAF numbers. I mentioned in my post I wasn't sure about specific numbers by asking the question. I was still very accurate on the conclusion. IAF is about 100% larger than PAF in 4th and 4.5 gen fighters. That's why I would not bet on PAF defeating IAF in war.
IAF cannot devote everything to Pakistan I agree. So let's half their inventory for simplicity. This would make it far closer to a 1:1. Any wonder why India does not take Pakistan lightly at all. Himalayas separate India and China. But yes they wouldn't use all air assets against Pakistan just in case China chooses to get involved. BUT honestly, if all out conventional war between Pakistan and India happen, I don't think China would get involved unless Pakistan's survival is at stake. And even if involved, it would be minimal just to maintain that Pakistan can defeat any Indian invasion. That's it. Real war and real politics isn't all in all the time whenever things start going off. It is restrained and restrained and restrained even if it happens.
It's really just that simple.
On the topic of J-10C vs Rafale.
Rafale and J-10C are roughly equal in terms of modernity and when they came out, the types of technology used e.g. AESA and most modern missiles they can both fire.
BUT Rafale is France's number 1 best tip of the spear fighter. J-10C for PLAAF comes after J-20S, J-20, J-35, J-16. J-10C is also China's budget mass volume fighter. Rafale is Frances no expenses spared fighter much in the same way J-20 is for China.
Therefore I think China would put lesser stuff on J-10C than they have because it is aimed to be quick and cheaper to make while France aims to put onboard Rafale all the best they have.
Having J-10C even in two dozen limited numbers is still a additional force multiplier for PAF. JF-17 is the backbone force with block 3 receiving
some limited 4.5 gen technology - AESA albeit a smaller and power limited one due to engine and platform size.
24x J-10C however isn't a direct counter to 36x latest and most updated Rafale. Unless PAF are just that much better trained, more skilled, and better commanded. We should never make those assumptions that would allow us to believe PAF would spank IAF in next conflict. That was the point of this discussion. If it were a case where PAF has 24 5th generation fighters, then okay sure maybe we can say 24 5th generation fighters would force multiply PAF so much it allows them to counter IAF Rafales and the huge size gap.
