Really? That surprises me. Turkey is Europe's China, according to the Economist and has 7-8 times India's per capita income. It is also the second largest military in NATO, the largest standing army in Europe and a country that until recently, commanded an empire six times larger than anyone in India ever did. I think it would be very imprudent and unintelligent to not "care much" about Turkey.
Turkeys economy is dynamic and currently supported by strong underlying trends that point to long-term growth ahead. Its economy is the sixth largest in Europe and in the top 20 worldwide with a 2009 GDP of $615 billion. Turkeys per capita GDP of just over $8,700 is greater than any of the BRICs. Industrial output leaped by 21% in the 12 months ending March 2010, inflation fell to 6.1% last year from double-digit levels a year before, and public debt is less than 40% of GDP.
The Next Big Emerging Markets? - Precious Metals - Resource Investor
In terms of future predictions, George Friedman of Stratfor has this to say (Turkey features as a major world power in his new book. India, interestingly, does not.)
Stratfor?s George Friedman: Long Turkey, Short China
IndexUniverse.com (IU.com): You and I have discussed Turkey in the past as one of your favorite areas of the world for investment. Why is that, and is it still true?
George Friedman (Friedman): Turkey is an island of stability in a region of chaos. To the northeast, you have the Caucasus, with Georgia and Armenia; to the northwest, you have Bulgaria; to the south, Iraq and Syria; and to the east, Iran. Of all these countries, Turkey has the largest economy. It is the 17th-largest economy in the world.
It also has by far the largest and most capable army in Europe, possibly barring the Britishand only possibly. Turkey has a substantial internal market and a substantial middle class. It has interesting wage differentials [against other nations], and a lot of American companies are looking at it as a place to go, not only to produce products, but to sell them. And of course, it is perfectly located strategically, with easy access to Europe, the Middle East and Eurasia.
It has weaknesses, such as the political split between the Islamists and the secularists. But radical Islam is not a major issue there, despite occasional terrorism. The issues in the southeastern part of the country with the Kurds are quite serious, but they dont threaten the broader security of the nation.
Visitors to Istanbul will be stunned by the amount of economic activity. There is massive construction. And the banking industry is quite conservative, so its done well during the crisis. The Turks looked at some of the alleged sophistication in the banking system in Europe, and they were not impressed, so they decided to keep things simple.
IU.com: It may be an island of stability, but its surrounded by a sea of trouble. Shouldnt we be concerned about having neighbors like Iran or (more distantly) Russia?
Friedman: Turkey is so strong militarily that neither the Russians nor the Iranians would dream of messing with it. In fact, both countries are very solicitous of Turkey and make sure they dont alienate it.
Youre really looking at the 600-lb. gorilla of the region.
IU.com: Then why is it overlooked by the investment media? You never hear about Turkey.
Friedman: The American media is not very good at covering the world. They operate out of stereotypes that are 20 years out of date. For the same reason that the financial media wasnt very good at covering the financial crisis, they arent good at covering this.
