Operation Rah-e-Nijat (South Waziristan)

[Solomon2]

"You cannot deny that the CIA does not have links with the beards , the CIA fed the beards in the Soviet era and the CIA is happy to feed them even now."

No one denies the the CIA fed "the beards" during the Soviet era. But the biggest criticism we've heard from Pakistanis has been that America dropped its tools and left them to shift for their own fate when the Russians departed.

So which "truth" do you choose to stick with? Can't have it both ways, can you?

I propose a new rule: Pakistanis can't just blather and expect someone to gather the proofs to contradict them; it's too time-consuming, and besides once a page of the forum is turned the same assertions just pop up again. Instead, Pakistanis should actually get in the habit of providing reasoned proofs to their statements, or at least links to cogent arguments of such, before such things can be accepted.

 

[fatman17]

No one denies the the CIA fed "the beards" during the Soviet era. But the biggest criticism we've heard from Pakistanis has been that America dropped its tools and left them to shift for their own fate when the Russians departed.

there should have been an exit strategy - read Steve Coll's Ghost Wars to get your answers - i think the US Sec.of State has "alluded" to the fact that there were mistakes made by "both sides".

 

[fatman17]

Does this mean that our soldiers are now encountering the hardcore militants that know that if they lose in SWA then they have no where else to go.

they are being "squeezed" from all sides - they have now no choice but to fight to the bitter end - Makeen and the surrounding areas is their bastion - the hardcore militants are most probably the uzbeks.

with winter closing in fast, new ops would be difficult to start. the army will consolidate its positions. air attacks on suspected hideouts would continue.

 

[vsdoc]

Does not the onset of winter with the operation far from complete (territorial consolidation, air strikes notwithstanding) translate into a tactical victory (and not just a respite) for the Taliban?

After all, it gives them time and space to regroup, redeploy, and rearm ..... using their mobility, which the army would lack for fear of being cut off, outflanked and isolated from their logistical and heavy firepower support?

Sort of evens out the playing field no?

Cheers, Doc

 

[fatman17]

US donates $430,000 in medical supplies to NWFP

Staff Report

PESHAWAR: The US government donated emergency medical supplies worth $430,000 to NWFP hospitals to equip them to treat trauma victims.

The urgently needed medical equipment will replenish and expand medical stocks at large hospitals in areas particularly prone to mass casualty incidents. “No hospital can mitigate the tragedy of a suicide bombing, but a well-supplied medical centre can help reduce the loss of life,” US Representative John Tierney said at a handover ceremony to NWFP Minister for Social Welfare Sitara Ayaz at the Officers’ Mess on Thursday.

The ceremony underscored US support for victims of terrorist attacks and was attended by NWFP dignitaries, US Consul General E. Candace Putnam, Representative George Miller, Representative Ron Kind and Representative Peter Welch.

At the ceremony, Representative Tierney, who is on a three-day visit to Pakistan, presented pharmaceuticals and essential hospital equipment comprising antibiotics, anesthetics, surgical blades, sutures, and other emergency supplies. Also part of the donation that will arrive in Pakistan in the coming weeks are anti-shock garments and haemostatic bandages - products used to stabilise body pressure and stop acute bleeding.

This donation is part of an ongoing commitment by the United States to partner with Pakistan to fund health care improvements in the NWFP. The US recently provided the NWFP with 24 ambulances, training sessions for hundreds of healthcare workers, assistance to 25 facilities to enable the provision of 24-hour emergency care for newborns, and upgrades for several health facilities and district hospitals, including essential medical equipment such as ventilators, refrigerators, generators, voltage regulators, stretchers, and surgical supplies.

 

[fatman17]

Does not the onset of winter with the operation far from complete (territorial consolidation, air strikes notwithstanding) translate into a tactical victory (and not just a respite) for the Taliban?

After all, it gives them time and space to regroup, redeploy, and rearm ..... using their mobility, which the army would lack for fear of being cut off, outflanked and isolated from their logistical and heavy firepower support?

Sort of evens out the playing field no?

Cheers, Doc

what tactical victory!

and taking your cynicism into consideration

you think after having being denied from their "main base of ops" and having fled and left behind "major cache of arms" and as you said the ops are ongoing, they would have the "capacity" to regroup, and rearm to the extent and level of the past to cut-off and outflank the army? - everytime in the last 4-5 months they have had to face superior forces, we have seen only one behaviour from them - run for their lives.
the local population having suffered at their hands will not allow them sanctuary to rearm and redeploy. with no where to hide, denied sustenance (food and clothing) they have only one choice - flee across the border to afghanistan, where i am sure the US/NATO/ISAF/AFGHAN juggernaut will only be too happy to eliminate them.

 

[vsdoc]

they have only one choice - flee across the border to afghanistan, where i am sure the US/NATO/ISAF/AFGHAN juggernaut will only be too happy to eliminate them.

Yes sir, I have read about the Hammer and Anvil theory volte face, but with a largely missing anvil now.

I guess spring will bring greater clarity along with the melting snow.

You could at least admit that the numbers simply do not add up and that it is a cause of serious concern amongst your forces ..... doing so wouldn't change the course of the war in any way you know.

Cheers, Doc

 

[TaimiKhan]

You could at least admit that the numbers simply do not add up and that it is a cause of serious concern amongst your forces ..... doing so wouldn't change the course of the war in any way you know.

Cheers, Doc

Which numbers are you talking about ??

 

[vsdoc]

The numbers of Taliban supposed to have been holding sway in the region versus the number your forces have actually engaged further versus the number your forces have actually killed. As always, can you provide some hard facts here?

Cheers, Doc

 

[fatman17]

Yes sir, I have read about the Hammer and Anvil theory volte face, but with a largely missing anvil now.

I guess spring will bring greater clarity along with the melting snow.

You could at least admit that the numbers simply do not add up and that it is a cause of serious concern amongst your forces ..... doing so wouldn't change the course of the war in any way you know.

Cheers, Doc

Indeed! - see u then!

 

[vsdoc]

Indeed! - see u then!

Sir that is not fair ..... aap to rooth gaye.

Cheers, Doc

 

[TaimiKhan]

The numbers of Taliban supposed to have been holding sway in the region versus the number your forces have actually engaged further versus the number your forces have actually killed. As always, can you provide some hard facts here?

Cheers, Doc

First of all the COAS himself had admitted that SW is a black hole in regard to intelligence as that area had been completely shut to govt agencies and LEA for some years, so an accurate count of militants would be difficult to ascertain. Whatever the figure had been provided it would be based on not so credible sources and the final figure would always be on the higher side as a precautionary measure during the planning phase.

Also the figure would be including the hardcore elements supplemented by the elements who are not made up of the hardcore and whose fighting ability, capability and will can be questioned at the time of the assault.

And the figures of the killed militants being provided by the ISPR are not on a very high note becoz they are the ones which are directly confirmed by the troops on the front, with a multi screening process so that exaggeration is not done in the numbers provided, the ones killed by artillery strikes, air strikes or helicopter strikes are not included in the overall total. And many times the killed numbers are gathered by intercepting militant communication too.

As said before, the militants were entrenched for a proper face to face battle, but new kind of tactics had to make them flee in a hurry.

The number game would always be confusing nor it can be 100% accurate anywhere in the world, but with the passage of time as more enemy is engaged and army expands its territory under control, things would get cleared up. And due to the intended offensive the militants may have sent some fighters to other areas to bring pressure on the forces by attacking at other locations or try to start setting up a new base of operations.

 

[TaimiKhan]

Does not the onset of winter with the operation far from complete (territorial consolidation, air strikes notwithstanding) translate into a tactical victory (and not just a respite) for the Taliban?

After all, it gives them time and space to regroup, redeploy, and rearm ..... using their mobility, which the army would lack for fear of being cut off, outflanked and isolated from their logistical and heavy firepower support?

Sort of evens out the playing field no?

Cheers, Doc

Winter doesn't means the army will sit idle and resort to just airstrikes and artillery bombardment. Army is well equipped, have the means to move even in snow and in this offensive a lot of operations have been done on foot by the PA by outflanking the hardened prepared positions of the militants through ridges and nullahs wherever possible. Even in winter army is going to be on the move and expand its reach giving the militants minimum space to do all the things as told in your post. The more army covers the ground, the less space it will be provided to them, also winter does not means it will snow through out the region, some areas would be clear of snow but only extreme cold would be there.

And as for the militants mobility, the major roads would be under the govt control in few weeks time as most are already under them. They are not the Afghan Mujaheddin who used to have horses in soviet occupation war and used to have great mobility. These are on foot specially after the main roads leading in and out are under govt control and if you see the Afghan Occupational wars too, in winters these militants would die down and halt any major activity in winters due to lack of mobility and in spring would start their operations. So the army has a good chance to get as much as them in winter before spring comes. With major operational safe heavens specially looking at winter gone, with army still on the move and going for other areas and hopefully continue to do so in winter, it will create a lot of pressure on the militants.

 

[S-2]

Guys patrol in snow all the time. It does get hard, though.




Most importantly, Vsdoc, this isn't a bodycount game. In the end, it should be about squeezing these guys out of the dominating narrative in their neighborhood.

Afterall, killed or teleported to Mars, there will always be more if the population can't be protected down low. Do so and deny the loons up in the caves free movement and the opportunity to loot and raid for food and they'll be gone.

Do so and provide some hope and improvement in people's lives and they'll likely be gone.

I'd encourage you to worry less about a 5 o'clock follies to titillate the senses with stories of heavy combat and much blood and, instead, kill them when you can or must and move them to anywhere but where the people will eventually be.

Maybe they go north. Maybe they go to Afghanistan. Maybe Baluchistan. Maybe this takes till hell freezes over. Eventually, though, they'll run out of places to dominate and intimidate.

What else can be done? Bomb the hell out of everything?

 

[fatman17]

Sir that is not fair ..... aap to rooth gaye.

Cheers, Doc

not a matter of roothna - its a matter of life and death!
in any case my friend TK has elaborated on the numbers issue quite aptly!