Operation Rah-e-Nijat (South Waziristan)

[fatman17]

^TK i think SSC is offered now to non-combatant arms of the armed forces. the induction is probably 1/year with 6 months training at PMA (?)

 

[fatman17]

Just goes to show what happens when PA gets down to serious business.

I'm wondering how the PAF was able to acquire a night attack capability and high resolution aerial video imagery within four months. Could the Americans have helped us with that?[/QUOTE]

correct - all F-16s are now equipped !

 

[TaimiKhan]

^TK i think SSC is offered now to non-combatant arms of the armed forces. the induction is probably 1/year with 6 months training at PMA (?)

Yups Sir, to women only in SSC, 7 years duration of service, in AEC, computer specialists, EME, Engineers & Signals. 6 months BMT at PMA I believe.

Same case in PAF too.

 

[TaimiKhan]

Just goes to show what happens when PA gets down to serious business.

I'm wondering how the PAF was able to acquire a night attack capability and high resolution aerial video imagery within four months. Could the Americans have helped us with that?[/QUOTE]

correct - all F-16s are now equipped !

Also the UAVs have got EO/IR systems to observe enemy movement during day & night. As F-16s can't stay for longer period of time, F-16s pods are mostly used for targeting purposes but other recon aircraft are also being used with the UAV. When on eid i went to my hometown, i used to see every night atleast 2-3 UAVs flying over the city mostly over the bordering area with the NWA and an area where army had launched an operation at that time period.

 

[Elmo]

Thanks Taimi! I just sent them an email since there was no phone number listed on that website.

Here's my email to them:

To whom it may concern,

This is apropos a survey titled "Most Pakistanis back war against Taliban: poll" released on Tuesday by your foundation. I have the following queries about it:

1. What is/are the objective(s) of this survey? What was the purpose of carrying it out now?
2. Has there been a significant change in the findings of these surveys? (please indicate if the results are statistically significant or not, with a p value <0.05 or even less)
3. What was the methodology employed? (the sample size, population, the time period, was the questionnaire self-administered?)
4. Who gave the funding for this project?

I would like to share your response with some members of a forces based website.

Looking forward to your reply,

Much thanks,

N.

--------------------------------------
Will put up the reply as soon as it comes my way.

So here's the reply I received from Gallup today:


Dear N.

Thank you for your interest in Gilani Research Foundation poll conducted by Gallup Pakistan.

We usually do not entertain requests for more information if the identity is kept anonymous by the sender.

Kindly visit the following link and you would find answers to all your questions . However, if you still have questions we would be happy to answer.

Welcome to Gallup Pakistan !



Regards

Bilal Gilani

Public Polls Division

-------------------------------------------------


So the .pdf file there had the following info.:

Sample size: 2700 people
Demograph: cross-section, but the criteria for splitting it was not given
Confidence interval at 95&#37; was +/- 2-3%
Field work was done face-to-face


The objectives of the survey are not clear. The study is still being analysed and more details will be released next week.


---------------------------------------------------------

My reply to the guy concerned was:

Dear Bilal,

Your survey was cited by a member of the forum defence.pk on the board. I wanted to know the details about the survey. I will forward this message and if anyone else is interested, they will surely contact you.

Thanks for the prompt reply,

Regards,

N.

----------------------------------------------

The field is yours now gentlemen!

 

[Stewart1989]

Excellent news guys! Great to hear Pakistan taking the fight to the Taliban ... Let's not place blame on anyone in particular, the entire world has their part to play in this war on terrorism!

I do have one question? ... Why the low numbers in Taliban Losses, when there was a suspected 10,000 Taliban in the South Waziristan Region? Obviously this means they've managed to flee the zone elsewhere, so where have they gone an dwill the Pakistani Army go forward with this Taliban Offensive, possibly push through the entire FATA clearing it? From what I've read there are many places along the Afghan\Pakistan border (FATA) which the Taliban can use as Safe Havens ... Therefor, won't this offensive be rather usless if they don't continue to push?

Unfortunatley I know little about the Taliban, being from Australia we get very little coverage on the topic.

Thanks Guys, well done and good luck with future endeavours!

 

[TaimiKhan]

Excellent news guys! Great to hear Pakistan taking the fight to the Taliban ... Let's not place blame on anyone in particular, the entire world has their part to play in this war on terrorism!

I do have one question? ... Why the low numbers in Taliban Losses, when there was a suspected 10,000 Taliban in the South Waziristan Region? Obviously this means they've managed to flee the zone elsewhere, so where have they gone an dwill the Pakistani Army go forward with this Taliban Offensive, possibly push through the entire FATA clearing it? From what I've read there are many places along the Afghan\Pakistan border (FATA) which the Taliban can use as Safe Havens ... Therefor, won't this offensive be rather usless if they don't continue to push?

Unfortunatley I know little about the Taliban, being from Australia we get very little coverage on the topic.

Thanks Guys, well done and good luck with future endeavours!

The figure of 10,000 is pretty high to be true, as that area was kind of an intelligence black hole with no proper intel. The exact figure would be less then this, in that also there are some hardcore militants and some are the ones who have joined for money, some by force and many criminal elements involved too, so when such operations start the unwilling would be deserting and running away, while the hardcore would be giving a fight. And the number killed is too low becoz this is the figure which gets confirmed by the soldiers on the front line, the figure killed in air strikes, artillery barrage are not accounted for in this one, so if those figures are added it would be a larger one, also for many months the PA and PAF had been doing air strikes and artillery strikes, in which the number of dead would be there too. Yes a lot have melted away, either they would restoring to hit and run tactics and try to make another HQ is still to be seen.

The reason for attacking this specific area was that it had become a no go area for the govt and the insurgents had a base from where they were directing all the suicide attacks and other attacks inside Pakistan, as these are proper towns and villages, so by throwing them out the benefit of having a home turf and HQ with all proper facilities has been taken from then and their moral and seeing their fortress gone down would nose dive too as now they would have to live in caves and mountain areas with no proper living facilities being enjoyed and would be on the run too as PA will go where ever they try to set their baggage, these Taliban are the anti-Pakistan ones, they had nothing to do with Afghanistan, their aim was to destroy Pakistan, let them run, where ever they will go PA will be going there too.

 

[Stewart1989]

The figure of 10,000 is pretty high to be true, as that area was kind of an intelligence black hole with no proper intel. The exact figure would be less then this, in that also there are some hardcore militants and some are the ones who have joined for money, some by force and many criminal elements involved too, so when such operations start the unwilling would be deserting and running away, while the hardcore would be giving a fight. And the number killed is too low becoz this is the figure which gets confirmed by the soldiers on the front line, the figure killed in air strikes, artillery barrage are not accounted for in this one, so if those figures are added it would be a larger one, also for many months the PA and PAF had been doing air strikes and artillery strikes, in which the number of dead would be there too. Yes a lot have melted away, either they would restoring to hit and run tactics and try to make another HQ is still to be seen.

The reason for attacking this specific area was that it had become a no go area for the govt and the insurgents had a base from where they were directing all the suicide attacks and other attacks inside Pakistan, as these are proper towns and villages, so by throwing them out the benefit of having a home turf and HQ with all proper facilities has been taken from then and their moral and seeing their fortress gone down would nose dive too as now they would have to live in caves and mountain areas with no proper living facilities being enjoyed and would be on the run too as PA will go where ever they try to set their baggage, these Taliban are the anti-Pakistan ones, they had nothing to do with Afghanistan, their aim was to destroy Pakistan, let them run, where ever they will go PA will be going there too.

My understanding was that the TTP and Afghan Taliban had very strong ties, and the Afghan Taliban is now operating from over the border in the border region? Does the Pakistan Army\Government have no desire to wipe the whole FATA of Taliban? Will they push on to North Waziristan?

My view - as an outsider (mostly), and its a relatively uneducated one at that, is that there needs to be more cooperation across the border between US/NATO and Pakistani Forces in order to squeeze the Taliban. The Taliban need to be eradicated, not just controlled ... No? They threaten the stability and safety not only in Pakistan, but in neighbouring countries, which in turn only worsens stability and safety in Pakistan.

We need to let sleeping dogs lie, and look forward to a brighter future - our common goal - To Stop Terrorism all over the world, Not just in Pakistan.

 

[vsdoc]

- self delete in deference to my friend Taimi -

 

[TaimiKhan]

South Waziristan clashes kill 28 militants

ISLAMABAD: Security forces claimed killing at least 28 militants as operation Rah-i-Nijat continued in South Waziristan.

Five militants were also arrested while five soldiers lost their lives.

According to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), security forces were consolidating their positions on the Jandola-Sararogha Axis.

During a clearance operation, five soldiers, including an officer, died in a blast in the Sararogha area of South Waziristan.

At least 16 militants were killed while five were apprehended during an encounter in Mangora-Sar and Ghundai-Gar.

Security forces also secured the Ladha Fort and cleared the Bangel Khel area.

House to house search and clearance operations were underway on the Razmak-Makeen Axis. A huge cache of arms and ammunitions was recovered from the same axis. &#8212; DawnNews

 

[S-2]

taimikhan may or may not be correct about actual numbers. He is absolutely correct that those numbers can be easily changed.

Remember that the "taliban" comprise a wide range of players as they also do in Afghanistan. Many are committed ideologues. Many more are not. Some may have exfiltrated with their families as early as last summer. Others may simply remain in their homes as stay-behinds "guarding their property". Some may leave the area if they can. Others may have constructed hiding areas up in the mountains.

To date, it appears that the army has moved on the ridge-lines above the main avenues of approach. That is very smart but also relatively slow. As such, it will be easy for the taliban to see and avoid.

That's not to say such is a flawed approach by the P.A. What will make this work, however, will be determined by the troops who remain to secure the area long term. The more determined the P.A. is to take an area and nest in it permanently, the more difficult it will be for the taliban to return and reassert themselves.

In short this, like most COIN-based operations and (ultimately) WARS is less about body counts than it is about gaining and retaining area and population control. If a taliban guerrilla lays up in the hills through winter because the army is in the towns, he may well die. If he comes down to avoid such, he will likely be picked up and detained unless he's a weapon with him. If so, he'll be likely killed.

If he manages to survive the winter but the army is STILL active below him, I imagine he'll bury his weapon return as others do and (hopefully) pick up his life, forget about his recent past, and count himself lucky to be alive.

Thanks.

 

[TaimiKhan]

Stewart its like this (I'm not Pakistani, but I can probably help you understand)

Afghan Taliban = Good Taliban

Pakistani Taliban = Good Taliban now turned Bad Taliban

Good Taliban = Pet Dog who has been trained to enter neighbours garden and poo on neighbour's doorstep

Good turned bad Taliban = Pet Dog trained to poo on other neighbour's doorstep, till the neighbour became really hostile as well as made friends with your ex-dog handler who then came and sat on you and told you to control both your naughty dogs, at which time you decided to rein in one (majorly cheesing him off) while pretending to rein in the other.

Cheesed off pet dog now started pooing on your own doorstep.

Poo stinks, and soon it became imperative to put naughty pet dog down.

Very basic but I'll flesh it out as we go along.

Cheers, Doc

Well vsdoc, you just have insulted the good views & comments that i had posted about you in one of my previous posts a few days back, it seems i was mistaken in my judgment.

Yeah you are right u r not a Pakistani but you also don't have the understanding of what in reality is happening and which Taliban is which one.

It would be better if you do some reading and try to understand which are the real taliban and what are the ones who use the name of the taliban but aren't Taliban in anyway.

Then hopefully you will be in a position to post the right opinion and make someone understand.

 

[vsdoc]

Taimi,

I am sorry for having disappointed you buddy ..... my opinion about you however remains the same as before.

As an Indian, i really don't care whether he is good, bad, or ugly, whether he is a "real" talib or one masquerading as one, what his ideology is, who his masters are (or were).

Believe me when I tell you, and I speak for all Indians here, that while we do not rejoice at what you guys are going through, we do believe that the dogs of war have come home.

I am sorry if it hurts your sentiments, but we really as a nation do not want to or need to split hairs on what we see as YOUR problem.

If that means we should keep quiet on this and other related threads, or if at all, only talk in glowing terms about the heroic exploits of your brave forces, I think that would be unfair.

Hope you understand.

And of course as a senior member here whose posts we value on the tech content and in-depth knowledge and understanding, I would greatly welcome a post from your side giving the "real" picture, and i would gladly stand corrected.

Cheers, Doc

 

[waraich66]

taimikhan may or may not be correct about actual numbers. He is absolutely correct that those numbers can be easily changed.

Remember that the "taliban" comprise a wide range of players as they also do in Afghanistan. Many are committed ideologues. Many more are not. Some may have exfiltrated with their families as early as last summer. Others may simply remain in their homes as stay-behinds "guarding their property". Some may leave the area if they can. Others may have constructed hiding areas up in the mountains.

To date, it appears that the army has moved on the ridge-lines above the main avenues of approach. That is very smart but also relatively slow. As such, it will be easy for the taliban to see and avoid.

That's not to say such is a flawed approach by the P.A. What will make this work, however, will be determined by the troops who remain to secure the area long term. The more determined the P.A. is to take an area and nest in it permanently, the more difficult it will be for the taliban to return and reassert themselves.

In short this, like most COIN-based operations and (ultimately) WARS is less about body counts than it is about gaining and retaining area and population control. If a taliban guerrilla lays up in the hills through winter because the army is in the towns, he may well die. If he comes down to avoid such, he will likely be picked up and detained unless he's a weapon with him. If so, he'll be likely killed.

If he manages to survive the winter but the army is STILL active below him, I imagine he'll bury his weapon return as others do and (hopefully) pick up his life, forget about his recent past, and count himself lucky to be alive.

Thanks.

Talaban have their bases in high mountains not in villages , it was their trap to invite PA in the villages and now they will plan their gurrilla attackes and keep engage PA .

Cost of deployment of 2 Div army is arround 1 billion USD per month , which will suck our all our resources should be utlized for development of country .

I think this war will continue for many decades but practically Pakistan cant afford war more then two months.

In end of November with possible change in government will actually define the future strategy of GOP and PA .

Utlimate solution is exit of US from Afghanistan .

 

[TaimiKhan]

My understanding was that the TTP and Afghan Taliban had very strong ties, and the Afghan Taliban is now operating from over the border in the border region? Does the Pakistan Army\Government have no desire to wipe the whole FATA of Taliban? Will they push on to North Waziristan?

My view - as an outsider (mostly), and its a relatively uneducated one at that, is that there needs to be more cooperation across the border between US/NATO and Pakistani Forces in order to squeeze the Taliban. The Taliban need to be eradicated, not just controlled ... No? They threaten the stability and safety not only in Pakistan, but in neighbouring countries, which in turn only worsens stability and safety in Pakistan.

We need to let sleeping dogs lie, and look forward to a brighter future - our common goal - To Stop Terrorism all over the world, Not just in Pakistan.

Well if they had such strong ties then where were the Afghan Taliban when the Swat TTP were getting their arses wiped out or where are they now when the TTP had its base of operations taken over by PA after having it for years ?? If they were so good buddies then why the so called taliban had to give themselves the name of TTP, does the Afghan Taliban call themselves Tehriek e Taliban Afghanistan ?? Don't think so.

Why did the Spokesman of Mullah Omar to one of the Pakistani journalists called the Swat TTP "pagal", meaning mad ?

Or why the Taliban leader Mullah Omar had to dissociate himself and his Taliban from the ones being led by Baitullah Mehsud and BM had to come up with TTP ??

Or why the Wazir Taliban became neutral in this offensive and not a single attack has been seen on the supply lines of PA or on the rear bases of Pakistan Army ??

So this notion that these two groups are buddies is a wrong perception and if you look at TTP, non of their leaders was capable enough to have fought in the Soviet Afghan war, all of them are young in their 20s and 30s, meaning they had no link to Afghanistan, while on the other hand in the Wazir tribe you will see old fighters and in Afghan taliban also you will be seeing old fighters of Soviet Afghan war era.

As for North Waziristan, time will tell as what happens there.

And as for joint efforts, plz tell that to Nato/US/ISAF, as they knew we were gonna launch an operation soon, they did not take up any positions on the other side nor any offensive on their side of the boundary, rather some posts were emptied in the name of readjustment of posts. And if taliban before 9/11 were so dangerous and threatening, then i don't understand why was US inviting taliban ambassador to US and were negotiating for a pipeline deal through Afghanistan through Unicol's.

It was the AQ which created this mess not Taliban. AQ was & is threatening the world not the Taliban.