One Year of Modi Administration - How Much Has The New Indian Government Actually Delivered?

[Cyberian]

India's external debt baloons to $462 billion

 

[sancho]

Some interesting infographics

Interesting, but without the necessary background out of context, which of course makes it difficult to see what really was done by the new government and what came out of their doing.

Take the energy production for an example, which has nothing to do with the NDA, nor is it even a problem, because we already had a surpluss of energy, since during the UPA years several new powerplants were build. The problem however is in the distribution side, so what we really need to know is, did the NDA something to improve the distribution side and is that improvement working (would be great if you have some infos on that too).
Similar case in the coal sector, correct me if I missed it, but aren't most of the enviromental clearances still pending? If so, the increase can't be a result of that policy change as of now and more likely is attributed to the numerous of clearances (more than 100 if I remember correctly) Chidambaram made in 2013, which logically comes to effect later only.
And as we all know, the low inflation is just a result of the fall of the oil price and has nothing to do with any government policy.

 

[Ryuzaki]

So, you think such trillion dollar project start without designing & planning ?

Look at GIFT which was started 7-8 years ago ....it only has 2 buildings and a few roads

India's external debt baloons to $462 billion

External Debt (Percentage of GDP) - by country

 

[Manindra]

Look at GIFT which was started 7-8 years ago ....it only has 2 buildings and a few roads

GIFT is such a small city with too much hype.
Investors does not interested as developers hoped, so project got delayed.
Smart City project is upgrading infrastructure of current cities, which are cumbersome but very good & also very attractive for investors.

 

[Chanakya's_Chant]

India's external debt baloons to $462 billion

You further proved our point - India got safer by Dec 2014 compared to six months before in terms of external debt risk - The proportion of short-term loans in overall debt, the debt to GDP ratio and forex cover showed improvement

External debt risk: India got safer by Dec 2014 compared to six months before | Business Standard News
India's forex reserves touch record high at $344.6 billion - The Economic Times

 

[kakathiya]

One thing for sure they have not achieved is marketing their successes well....there is a perception being created and i am not sure if those are getting countered efficiently...Vajpayee lost 2003 elections even though his 5 years created record number of jobs and even 10 years of congress could not beat his infra figures....yet they lost badly!!

Also within its first year Modi govt has again dwarfed infra figures of congress regime....Anyhow these are early years but Modi should keep that debacle on back of his mind.....

sir indians need free goods, many need one packet of biriyani and booz with some pennys while voting, so many in india never mind what ever govt rules delhi, and i can say with guarantee that arun shoury was responsible for vajpayees defeat due to his fast libaralisation, he closed down thousands of loss making companies in a go, it earned bad will for the vajpyee govt, congress used it well by showing bjp is anti poor, then the cong did nothing and it ruled india for ten years, so common indians dont like super fast libaralisation or industrialisation, especially UP BIHAR

1.Uranium Supply deal with Canada

2.Rafale deal with france

3.Renewal of Military cooperation with US.

4.50 billion $ investment from Japan and China.

5."Befitting" Response to Adversaries

along with this clearing very long pending projects

saving nurses from ISIS

saving indians from yemen

saving both indians and nepalis from earth quake

establishing good will in countries which were neglected for long time

clearing long pending procurement deals for our armed forces

making babus arrive in time to their offices and making the govt offices look tidy and clean

cleaned the tons of filth in varanasi ghats, and made a revolution of sorts in making India dirt free

and over all indias youth get inspiration from his speaches

many more has been done and many more is in the pipe line

 

[Randhawa]

sir indians need free goods, many need one packet of biriyani and booz with some pennys while voting, so many in india never mind what ever govt rules delhi, and i can say with guarantee that arun shoury was responsible for vajpayees defeat due to his fast libaralisation, he closed down thousands of loss making companies in a go, it earned bad will for the vajpyee govt, congress used it well by showing bjp is anti poor, then the cong did nothing and it ruled india for ten years, so common indians dont like super fast libaralisation or industrialisation, especially UP BIHAR



along with this clearing very long pending projects

saving nurses from ISIS

saving indians from yemen

saving both indians and nepalis from earth quake

establishing good will in countries which were neglected for long time

clearing long pending procurement deals for our armed forces

making babus arrive in time to their offices and making the govt offices look tidy and clean

cleaned the tons of filth in varanasi ghats, and made a revolution of sorts in making India dirt free

and over all indias youth get inspiration from his speaches

many more has been done and many more is in the pipe line

Indeed the list is long i just noted down the main points and sorry i forgot to mention what he did for Indian Diaspora.

On Security Front i wish India possess Thermonuclear Weapons under Mr.Modi

 

[sancho]

1) He formed the govt when things were pretty bad
4) Economy growth trend was reversed and brought back to positive (though there is a confusion on the new method)
5) He has good control over the govt which previous govts lacked......

1) He took over when things were recovering, which is the ideal situation to come in, since you neither have to take difficult decisions to cut spending or raise taxes, but benefit from the improvements. So he could either sit back and take, what's coming anyway or be bold and push India way forward and after 2 budgets and very little reforms actually achieved so far, we know that the earlier is the case.

4) Come on mate, the BJP themselfs countered the myth of UPA pushing India into a bad economy, by admitting that Indias GDP is dependent on global economy and financial situation (exactly what the UPA said too) and even officially proven as false, by the new calculation method which shows a GDP growth of 6.9% for 2013, which then is the base for the 7...% last year.
They did a hell of a job during the elections in painting the situation as bad, but in power not only made a U-turn on it, but as expected benefitted from the recovering economy.

5) True, but since they had a clear majority and not such a difficult coalition, that wasn't too surprising isn't it? I am more surprised over the lack of control Modi has in it's own party and how he keeps people withing make him look weak, by stating things he doesn't approve, while he remains silent on these issues. For a person who is considered as a strong leader and not only the face of the party (contrary to MMS), I had expected more on that regard.


I agree with you on the marketing part, the Mod and the BJP had learned a lot in that field and that's one reason why they won the election and why there is a positive mood / sentiment around India. But that alone is not enough, if there is little substance behind it. Take the several U-turns from election promises, take the foreign visits with great optics and little outcomes, take foreign investors who are disappointed that the NDA didn't rejected the retrospective taxes as promised, which is a key that holds back many companies to start investing in India again, just as most of them still wait for the actual reforms on the ground to make doing business in India more interesting.
So there is an obvious gap between the promises / the marketing and what actually was done so far, since improvements like fast tracking of bureaucracy are good, but less impacting and that's what makes the year overall satisfactory, but not good and by far not great as it could had been, if he really would be the bold and strong reformer.

For the defence field the rating is more than clear as POOR!
Starting with disappointing defence budgets, next to no important deal was signed, many crucial modernisation projects delayed for years, instead of being fast tracked (and that partially for economic agendas and not defence related at all), several PR disasters since there no common voice in the defence field anymore (part time DM Jaitley, pushed around between the PM and the NSA, new DM Parrikar not used to handle the media and being publically refuted by pretty much everybody). But here again, marketing is the strong side, since they prefer to show of crore numbers of DAC clearances (which admittedly seems to work faster within the MoD), but fail to fix or sign the contracts at the end. Leaving the DM showing of numbers for defence procurements in the UPA term, rather than of the last year. And the icing of the cake is the MMRCA disaster, where the legendary decisiveness can be seen, with part time DM Jaitly publically stating that the deal is in the last stages, the new DM Parrikar admitting that Dassault is not complying to the RFP (as the former DM Antony, as well as the IAF did) and finally the PM making a contradictory move against his own DM and the IAF, putting India completelly in the weaker position.

 

[Chanakya's_Chant]

Interesting, but without the necessary background out of context, which of course makes it difficult to see what really was done by the new government and what came out of their doing.

Take the energy production for an example, which has nothing to do with the NDA, nor is it even a problem, because we already had a surpluss of energy, since during the UPA years several new powerplants were build. The problem however is in the distribution side, so what we really need to know is, did the NDA something to improve the distribution side and is that improvement working (would be great if you have some infos on that too).
Similar case in the coal sector, correct me if I missed it, but aren't most of the enviromental clearances still pending? If so, the increase can't be a result of that policy change as of now and more likely is attributed to the numerous of clearances (more than 100 if I remember correctly) Chidambaram made in 2013, which logically comes to effect later only.
And as we all know, the low inflation is just a result of the fall of the oil price and has nothing to do with any government policy.

We are not a power surplus state as of now - nor will be anytime soon before 2019 - India to be power surplus in 2019: Goyal - The Hindu

The NDA government is also working on the transmission part of it - India will spend 253 billion rupees ($4.1 billion) to tackle rampant theft of electricity and transmission losses by rolling out metering in cities and upgrading old distribution networks. - India to invest $4 billion to tackle power theft | Reuters

The growth in the electricity sector was the highest in some two decades with maximum power generation till date because of sufficient supply of coal which was not the case with the erstwhile UPA government due to many reasons - It is also noteworthy that in the meanwhile the Supreme Court has cancelled almost all of the coal licenses except of a few PSU's which could have been a crisis in making but thankfully it was tackled well by the Modi Government which was quick in e-auctioning the same in a quite challenging time frame - Government action key after Apex court ruling on coal block | Business Line
Coal block auction: Government likely to cap costs of power plants - The Economic Times

As far as environmetal and other clearances are concerned - India is heading in the right direction and appropriate steps have been takes to address the same -

Unified single window online system for all green clearances becomes operational - The Times of India

But some policies are at times hard to implement with prior approval of the judiciary - The Environment Ministry has approached the Supreme Court to free the process of wildlife clearance for infrastructure projects from the apex court’s monitoring, citing delays due to the “extremely convoluted and time consuming” procedure.

To speed up infra projects, stay out of wildlife clearance, Govt tells SC | The Indian Express

And at times there's a conflict between two parties like the Greenpeace incident - We Are Greenpeace And Fighting For The Environment Is Not A Crime | Greenpeace India

And as far as inflation is concerned - Yes its mostly due to downfall in global oil prices. But the RBI should also be thanked for that as mentioned - "Rajan has oil and gold to help for his inflation numbers. But regardless of commodity prices, Rajan has overseen a stabilization of the rupee and a decline in consumer prices to 5.17%, well below the 8.3% at the same period a year ago. Whole sale prices fell to 2% from 6% a year ago."

 

[N3oN]

1) He took over when things were recovering, which is the ideal situation to come in, since you neither have to take difficult decisions to cut spending or raise taxes, but benefit from the improvements. So he could either sit back and take, what's coming anyway or be bold and push India way forward and after 2 budgets and very little reforms actually achieved so far, we know that the earlier is the case.

4) Come on mate, the BJP themselfs countered the myth of UPA pushing India into a bad economy, by admitting that Indias GDP is dependent on global economy and financial situation (exactly what the UPA said too) and even officially proven as false, by the new calculation method which shows a GDP growth of 6.9% for 2013, which then is the base for the 7...% last year.
They did a hell of a job during the elections in painting the situation as bad, but in power not only made a U-turn on it, but as expected benefitted from the recovering economy.

5) True, but since they had a clear majority and not such a difficult coalition, that wasn't too surprising isn't it? I am more surprised over the lack of control Modi has in it's own party and how he keeps people withing make him look weak, by stating things he doesn't approve, while he remains silent on these issues. For a person who is considered as a strong leader and not only the face of the party (contrary to MMS), I had expected more on that regard.


I agree with you on the marketing part, the Mod and the BJP had learned a lot in that field and that's one reason why they won the election and why there is a positive mood / sentiment around India. But that alone is not enough, if there is little substance behind it. Take the several U-turns from election promises, take the foreign visits with great optics and little outcomes, take foreign investors who are disappointed that the NDA didn't rejected the retrospective taxes as promised, which is a key that holds back many companies to start investing in India again, just as most of them still wait for the actual reforms on the ground to make doing business in India more interesting.
So there is an obvious gap between the promises / the marketing and what actually was done so far, since improvements like fast tracking of bureaucracy are good, but less impacting and that's what makes the year overall satisfactory, but not good and by far not great as it could had been, if he really would be the bold and strong reformer.

For the defence field the rating is more than clear as POOR!
Starting with disappointing defence budgets, next to no important deal was signed, many crucial modernisation projects delayed for years, instead of being fast tracked (and that partially for economic agendas and not defence related at all), several PR disasters since there no common voice in the defence field anymore (part time DM Jaitley, pushed around between the PM and the NSA, new DM Parrikar not used to handle the media and being publically refuted by pretty much everybody). But here again, marketing is the strong side, since they prefer to show of crore numbers of DAC clearances (which admittedly seems to work faster within the MoD), but fail to fix or sign the contracts at the end. Leaving the DM showing of numbers for defence procurements in the UPA term, rather than of the last year. And the icing of the cake is the MMRCA disaster, where the legendary decisiveness can be seen, with part time DM Jaitly publically stating that the deal is in the last stages, the new DM Parrikar admitting that Dassault is not complying to the RFP (as the former DM Antony, as well as the IAF did) and finally the PM making a contradictory move against his own DM and the IAF, putting India completelly in the weaker position.

Sir
It looks Too sentimental.. And near to idealism.. The last elections as you said is not only dependent on developmental issues... But also some communal reasons.. Government is doing well, I think. They r just doing a basic work.. Till now there are no big decisions made .. But lots of them are in pipeline.. Regarding defense deals .. Procurement and decision making are way ahead of UPA REGIME.. not discussing about the quality of decisions. Which are variable for everybody. Again note the NDA decision to ban on beef.. Again its like nurturing something for BJP.

 

[magudi]

Achievements :

Jan dhan and direct transfers (continuation of UPA but well implemented)
Coal and spectrum auctions
Insurance coal mineral legislations
Foreign policy (except with pakistan where he is no better than previous ones for now)
Swatch bharat - if the numbers given out by govt on number of toilets being built are correct - it is impressive
Devolution of more funds to states
NJAC
Spanking NGOs
Ending License raj in SMEs
Decontrolling Diesel prices
Oh and how could i miss - Gharwapsi
And of course Yemen,Nepal stuff but that any govt would have done
Defence - can't say much yet but parrikar does give a feeling that he can fix things


Looking forward to :
Land , labour ,tax (GST) reforms
Infra proects anounced - waterways and roads
Smart city thingy

And To all basing govt that everything is due to oil prices even during UPA1 when nation saw highest growth in terms of GDP oil prices were low

 

[sancho]

We are not a power surplus state as of now

We are:

Employment in India grew by 34% in last 8 years; women's participation rose to 25% of the workforce | Page 3

As far as environmetal and other clearances are concerned - India is heading in the right direction and appropriate steps have been takes to address the same -

But, has not implement these steps to gain effect in the last year, but will show it only this or in the following years. That's exactly why one has to understand the context to differ between who did what and with what outcome.

And as far as inflation is concerned - Yes its mostly due to downfall in global oil prices. But the RBI should also be thanked for that as mentioned - "Rajan has oil and gold to help for his inflation numbers. But regardless of commodity prices, Rajan has overseen a stabilization of the rupee and a decline in consumer prices to 5.17%, well below the 8.3% at the same period a year ago. Whole sale prices fell to 2% from 6% a year ago."

Which still is not accountable to a new government policy that gave the change, infact the inflation was even rising in the early month of the NDA term and only the oil price change, brought the change.

 

[MilSpec]

Give it to Rahul Baba... sardar kush hoga, bahut kush hoga...

 

[magudi]

Give it to Rahul Baba... sardar kush hoga, bahut kush hoga...

Modi should also be credited for forcing CONgress to hire a new PR agency for RaGa

 

[sancho]

They r just doing a basic work.. Till now there are no big decisions made ..

That sums it up pretty good and shows why there are resons for disappointment. India had a great chance, having a government with such a majority that is not bound to coalition compromises and that in a time that basically screams for bold reforms to push India ahead. That and the hope that India put in the PM as a strong leader, should had got more than basic work and decissions, which is why the hopes on at least the 2nd budget was so high, but again the result is"only" satisfactory but not good.

Regarding defense deals .. Procurement and decision making are way ahead

1) MMRCA in major mess at the moment
2) LUH scrapped and delayed for years
3) SSK scrapped and delayed for years + with a slower induction rate
4) Avro replacement, not an inch ahead and stuck with the same problems as the UPA had
5) M777 howitzer, still pending on the same offset and cost related issues
6) A330MRTT, Apaches, Chinooks, all pending with at least some talks for the helicopters, the tanker deal was dead for months

And these are only those that were even cleared before the NDA came into government and none of them was cleared or pushed ahead in the last year. When you look at it, the only new aircrafts that were ordered were additional Cheethas and Do228, that we actually tried to replace now, but couldn't because of the scrapped LUH tender and development delays of Saras. That's not fast tracking modernisations, but filling gaps with old stuff!