October Surprise: my prediction for war

[Feng Leng]

US has a sent an ambassador to Taiwan. US and Taiwan now have ambassador level diplomatic relations!

https://twitter.com/bikhim

 

[Baibars_1260]

You are wrong.
Chinese warships never need maintenance.
They can run 24/7 all years without rest and fuel.
Chinese sailors are thank chinese superfoods invincible.
Chinese missiles will mercilessly target New York, Tokyo, New Delhi, Soul, Hanoi.
We all are too afraid to even raise our hands to surrender.

Not sure your sarcasm is relevant but the US Navy's primary goal is to defend US interests and avenge an unprovoked attack.
Examples:
Initially the USN stayed out of both world wars despite loss of merchant shipping and smaller
escorting naval vessels to German submarines. The US arms industry and agricultural exports was fully geared to supplying the UK and France at considerable profit so the advantages of not participating in a shooting war was obvious despite posturing. The USA got dragged into World War 1 by clever British Intelligence spoofing of a supposed non-existential threat from Mexico in alliance with Germany. In World War 2 the USA was subjected to a very shortsighted ( but initially spectacular) attack by Japan.
In BOTH world wars US public opinion was strongly against any participation and at first the USA remained mostly neutral until dragged in.
In the Taiwan "crisis" it is more posturing. The commercial and trade relations between China and the USA are too deep to be risked for the sake of a remote "rebellious " island ( in the eyes of China) that holds little strategic and far less commercial interest.
The USN does defend vital commercial interests against weaker powers such as keeping the flow of Middle East and Gulf oil flowing through the Iran Iraq conflict in 1980s and the first Gulf War (1991). Subsequent operations in War on Terror, Serbia etc. were again "defense of interest" and "punishment " attacks. But these were not Navy on Navy classic engagements, which the USA usually avoids ( unless attacked).
Examples:
Task force 21 with the aircraft carrier Enterprise entered the Bay of Bengal to assist Pakistan in the war with India in East Pakistan ( which was actually a civil war with India backing secession). The Soviet Union was quick to respond sending a task force of its own. Additionally the Indian navy though outmatched on its own had assets in the Bay of Bengal and there was a risk of damage in a Navy on Navy engagement. Even with a massive firepower and complete air dominance advantage the USN chose to stand down. There was no commercial or strategic interest in East Pakistan which had seceded anyway.
The Crimean take over by Russia is another example. Russia's naval assets in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov are meagre ( Nato joke: We will leave the Italian Navy to deal with them.). There is a threat from land and air assets to an opposing
force, but given the massive firepower of a Nimitz class task force that could possibly be handled ( if it stays non-nuclear).
However since there was no commercial interest in Crimea and the Russians ( and before them the Soviet Union) had been controlling that area anyway the USA chose to look the other way. There was no point in a Navy on Navy engagement.
Even during the Cuban Missile Crisis the USN chose not to go into action preferring a behind the scene deal ( USA removes missiles from Turkey, the Soviet Union removes missiles from Cuba) . A "Navy on Navy" action was avoided.
So a war because of Taiwan is highly unlikely.
The Sino-Indian tension is a different ball game, with strategic interests primarily with China.

 

[fitpOsitive]

If this happens, I promise you I'll buy you a coke.....in either Taipei or Srinagar, your choice.

And pizza from my side for both of you.

 

[Bengal71]

China will not strike any carrier battle group. Not because china can't because both China and USA cant afford the consequences of such an action.

If war breaks out and the US really attacks, then China will. They will have no choice, they have to defend themselves.

But I think the Americans are bluffing, they won't attack China even if the Chinese attack Taiwan. They know the consequence of a conflict with China, they won't engage in war. I think they will try sanctions and other economic means.

 

[Baibars_1260]

"The Sino-Indian tension is a different ball game, with strategic interests primarily with China"
Even in this scenario it is highly unlikely that the USA will come between China and India. The USA will sell and deliver to India billions of dollars of high tech equipment if it is assured that India will survive to repay it ( its experience with South Vietnam was not good). In the 1962 conflict India's economy was too small to pay for any significant US arms imports and what India was looking for was arms "aid". Given the ideological motivations of the era "arms aid" in certain cases was acceptable such as in the case of Pakistan when it was a frontline state against Soviet communism in the 1950s. India's position in 1962 was ambiguous given its non-aligned status and growing links with the Soviet Union. Right at the time of the Sino-US conflict the USA and the Soviet Union were eye ball to eye ball in Cuba. India was still holding the Soviet hand though loosely but the fear of advanced US defense technology being compromised was there. India also did not resolutely support the USA against the Soviet Union during the Cuban Missile crisis which was ongoing simultaneously to the Sino Indian tensions. With so many distractions and apprehensions the US arms aid to India during the Sino-Indian war was half hearted at best; and anyway the war quickly came to a disastrous end for India.
Today India can afford to pay for US arms imports and the ideological motivations are no longer there for the US to decide in anyway other than purely commercial.
A direct US involvement in the current Sino-Indian conflict is remote.

 

[Beidou2020]

You really are a dim-wit aren't you?

Trying to compare Covid-19 response in US with US military power.

So sweet seeing you talk against US while hiding out in US. Is China not good enough for you little boy?

No need to waste my time with you anymore.

Remember the days you were kissing China’s a$$?
You were a huge China cheerleader until the WASP propaganda machine got to you and started believing their lies.

 

[Viet]

Not sure your sarcasm is relevant but the US Navy's primary goal is to defend US interests and avenge an unprovoked attack.
Examples:
Initially the USN stayed out of both world wars despite loss of merchant shipping and smaller
escorting naval vessels to German submarines. The US arms industry and agricultural exports was fully geared to supplying the UK and France at considerable profit so the advantages of not participating in a shooting war was obvious despite posturing. The USA got dragged into World War 1 by clever British Intelligence spoofing of a supposed non-existential threat from Mexico in alliance with Germany. In World War 2 the USA was subjected to a very shortsighted ( but initially spectacular) attack by Japan.
In BOTH world wars US public opinion was strongly against any participation and at first the USA remained mostly neutral until dragged in.
In the Taiwan "crisis" it is more posturing. The commercial and trade relations between China and the USA are too deep to be risked for the sake of a remote "rebellious " island ( in the eyes of China) that holds little strategic and far less commercial interest.
The USN does defend vital commercial interests against weaker powers such as keeping the flow of Middle East and Gulf oil flowing through the Iran Iraq conflict in 1980s and the first Gulf War (1991). Subsequent operations in War on Terror, Serbia etc. were again "defense of interest" and "punishment " attacks. But these were not Navy on Navy classic engagements, which the USA usually avoids ( unless attacked).
Examples:
Task force 21 with the aircraft carrier Enterprise entered the Bay of Bengal to assist Pakistan in the war with India in East Pakistan ( which was actually a civil war with India backing secession). The Soviet Union was quick to respond sending a task force of its own. Additionally the Indian navy though outmatched on its own had assets in the Bay of Bengal and there was a risk of damage in a Navy on Navy engagement. Even with a massive firepower and complete air dominance advantage the USN chose to stand down. There was no commercial or strategic interest in East Pakistan which had seceded anyway.
The Crimean take over by Russia is another example. Russia's naval assets in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov are meagre ( Nato joke: We will leave the Italian Navy to deal with them.). There is a threat from land and air assets to an opposing
force, but given the massive firepower of a Nimitz class task force that could possibly be handled ( if it stays non-nuclear).
However since there was no commercial interest in Crimea and the Russians ( and before them the Soviet Union) had been controlling that area anyway the USA chose to look the other way. There was no point in a Navy on Navy engagement.
Even during the Cuban Missile Crisis the USN chose not to go into action preferring a behind the scene deal ( USA removes missiles from Turkey, the Soviet Union removes missiles from Cuba) . A "Navy on Navy" action was avoided.
So a war because of Taiwan is highly unlikely.
The Sino-Indian tension is a different ball game, with strategic interests primarily with China.

Ok irony aside the question is who will blink first? The US and China is like two cars on the collision course. Both think the other blinks first.

 

[The Accountant]

If war breaks out and the US really attacks, then China will. They will have no choice, they have to defend themselves.

But I think the Americans are bluffing, they won't attack China even if the Chinese attack Taiwan. They know the consequence of a conflict with China, they won't engage in war. I think they will try sanctions and other economic means.

Exactly thats my point both countries will not attack each other directly as it means both of them destroying each other and world will then be dominated by a third country. This is a lose lose situation.

 

[Baibars_1260]

Ok irony aside the question is who will blink first? The US and China is like two cars on the collision course. Both think the other blinks first.

There is no "blinking" here. It is mere posturing in a US election year, on behalf of the USA. So far as China is concerned the Taiwan crisis is a calculated media distraction ( to the detriment of India) from the REAL events brewing in Ladakh and the CPEC. In a real war the naval assets are not shown on prime time TV on 50 " HDTV. For China letting India THINK that a war in Taiwan is imminent ( with the Indian media falling for the bait) is hugely advantageous.
It is surprising how little the Western media is covering the Sino-Indian tensions. Even when they do they seem to play it even without a noticeable pro-India bias. Even solidly India leaning channels such as BBC have started debunking Indian media ( note "media" not government) claims such as the capture of Mount Kailash ( an expertly photoshopped charade).
However China's game is also intensely dangerous because wars happen precisely because one nation thinks others will come to its aid and it can afford to fight a more powerful adversary. This is exactly what happened to Poland in the when it defied Germany under assurances from Britain and France that they were standing with it. Poland took the extreme step of massacring ethnic Germans inside the country to root out any German sympathizers, an action that brought a savage response from Germany when Poland collapsed and was occupied .
In fact such nations are merely bait in the larger scheme of things. Poland had to be sacrificed because a World War HAD to be fought to neutralize Germany forever as a world power. The dynamics of war take on a momentum of their own, fueled by hyper-nationalism and propaganda.

 

[Bengal71]

There is no "blinking" here. It is mere posturing in a US election year, on behalf of the USA. So far as China is concerned the Taiwan crisis is a calculated media distraction ( to the detriment of India) from the REAL events brewing in Ladakh and the CPEC. In a real war the naval assets are not shown on prime time TV on 50 " HDTV. For China letting India THINK that a war in Taiwan is imminent ( with the Indian media falling for the bait) is hugely advantageous.
It is surprising how little the Western media is covering the Sino-Indian tensions. Even when they do they seem to play it even without a noticeable pro-India bias. Even solidly India leaning channels such as BBC have started debunking Indian media ( note "media" not government) claims such as the capture of Mount Kailash ( an expertly photoshopped charade).
However China's game is also intensely dangerous because wars happen precisely because one nation thinks others will come to its aid and it can afford to fight a more powerful adversary. This is exactly what happened to Poland in the when it defied Germany under assurances from Britain and France that they were standing with it. Poland took the extreme step of massacring ethnic Germans inside the country to root out any German sympathizers, an action that brought a savage response from Germany when Poland collapsed and was occupied .
In fact such nations are merely bait in the larger scheme of things. Poland had to be sacrificed because a World War HAD to be fought to neutralize Germany forever as a world power. The dynamics of war take on a momentum of their own, fueled by hyper-nationalism and propaganda.

You don't need to look far for hyper nationalism, look closer to home.

 

[Marker]

There is no "blinking" here. It is mere posturing in a US election year, on behalf of the USA. So far as China is concerned the Taiwan crisis is a calculated media distraction ( to the detriment of India) from the REAL events brewing in Ladakh and the CPEC. In a real war the naval assets are not shown on prime time TV on 50 " HDTV. For China letting India THINK that a war in Taiwan is imminent ( with the Indian media falling for the bait) is hugely advantageous.
It is surprising how little the Western media is covering the Sino-Indian tensions. Even when they do they seem to play it even without a noticeable pro-India bias. Even solidly India leaning channels such as BBC have started debunking Indian media ( note "media" not government) claims such as the capture of Mount Kailash ( an expertly photoshopped charade).
However China's game is also intensely dangerous because wars happen precisely because one nation thinks others will come to its aid and it can afford to fight a more powerful adversary. This is exactly what happened to Poland in the when it defied Germany under assurances from Britain and France that they were standing with it. Poland took the extreme step of massacring ethnic Germans inside the country to root out any German sympathizers, an action that brought a savage response from Germany when Poland collapsed and was occupied .
In fact such nations are merely bait in the larger scheme of things. Poland had to be sacrificed because a World War HAD to be fought to neutralize Germany forever as a world power. The dynamics of war take on a momentum of their own, fueled by hyper-nationalism and propaganda.

During WW2 WMD in the shape of nuclear bomb was produced and use in last stages of war.

Now every sane person living in this world knew the horrofics of nuclear war.

Specially Americans and Europeans they do realize the outcome at their end.

They will not dare to start a world war because some insignificant Indian territories were annexed.

 

[UKBengali]

As for US "light" carriers, two of the new America class are in service already with each one carrying 20-25 F-35Bs:

US has around 10 of these types of "assault ships" that are as large as medium-sized aircraft carriers of other countries.

 

[ILC]

These scenarios are discussed in a very interesting way in the following videos. It would seem comical that a glove puppet would have so much insight but these videos have some serious defence analysis and professional war gaming resources behind them. The glove puppet is a presentation gimmick only. Otherwise VERY informative.

Binkov's Battleground

No one Takes Binkov guy seriously, he is Minnie Chan level.

 

[kris]

Sometime between October 10 and October 22, the US will announce an adjustment in the One China Policy and upgrade its diplomatic relations with Taiwan to ambassador level. Within 24 hours, PLAAF will penetrate Taiwan airspace and commence an air war over Taiwan. The US will deploy at least one aircraft carrier to an area around 1000 km east of Taiwan to try to defend it. Fighter jets / bombers from Japanese bases and Guam will also join the war. Meanwhile, at least two aircraft carriers will travel from the Indian Ocean through the Straits of Malacca and launch an attack on China's South China Sea islands.

Within a few days of fighting, at least three US aircraft carriers will be heavily damaged by missile strikes and many US bases in Japan as well as Guam will be bombed. PLA will land on Taiwan within 3 days from the start of hostilities and the Taiwan will be declared fully liberated within one week.

During the Sino-US War of 2020, India will launch an attack in Ladakh on PLA but will suffer more than 100,000 casualties within one week from the PLA artillery and rocket fire. Then a 2.5 front war scenario will push them out from Leh and Kashmir Valley by November.

Trump will use the conflict as an excuse to postpone the November election indefinitely.

Sometime between October 10 and October 22, the US will announce an adjustment in the One China Policy and upgrade its diplomatic relations with Taiwan to ambassador level. Within 24 hours, PLAAF will penetrate Taiwan airspace and commence an air war over Taiwan. The US will deploy at least one aircraft carrier to an area around 1000 km east of Taiwan to try to defend it. Fighter jets / bombers from Japanese bases and Guam will also join the war. Meanwhile, at least two aircraft carriers will travel from the Indian Ocean through the Straits of Malacca and launch an attack on China's South China Sea islands.

Within a few days of fighting, at least three US aircraft carriers will be heavily damaged by missile strikes and many US bases in Japan as well as Guam will be bombed. PLA will land on Taiwan within 3 days from the start of hostilities and the Taiwan will be declared fully liberated within one week.

During the Sino-US War of 2020, India will launch an attack in Ladakh on PLA but will suffer more than 100,000 casualties within one week from the PLA artillery and rocket fire. Then a 2.5 front war scenario will push them out from Leh and Kashmir Valley by November.

Trump will use the conflict as an excuse to postpone the November election indefinitely.

If wishes were horses

 

[kris]

@Feng Leng

Are you for real or is this satire?

If China hit 3 US aircraft carriers like you say, all bets will be off.

US will launch merciless conventional strikes on Chinese military and economic targets on or near it's coasts.

Chinese sea trade will come to a halt as USN/JN will blockade Chinese shipping.

China will be economically crippled quite quickly.

Very true. Effectively ww3 starts