October Surprise: my prediction for war

[IceCold]

How many countries has China fought in last 4-5 decades? Period.

I can ask the same question about the US and dont tell me Iraq or Afghanistan because the theatre of these fronts were entirely different. Yes US is no Joke but neither is China a pushover.

 

[Bengal71]

@Feng Leng

Are you for real or is this satire?

If China hit 3 US aircraft carriers like you say, all bets will be off.

US will launch merciless conventional strikes on Chinese military and economic targets on or near it's coasts.

Chinese sea trade will come to a halt as USN/JN will blockade Chinese shipping.

China will be economically crippled quite quickly.

Won't happen.

If China really strikes 3 US carriers, they will tuck their tail between their legs and run.

Bravado and chest thumping is cheap when you are the sole superpower of the world and you only ever attacked defenseless countries.

 

[The Accountant]

The Sino American War will be the first time the US has fought a peer power since WW2. In the last one or twoy years, Beijing has ramped up nuclear warhead production (~1000 warheads for now, I think) but this should have been done five or ten years ago. Already, it is difficult for American decisionmakers to get their heads around the idea that China has a nuclear arsenal of comparable size. This weakens the deterrence value and encourages opportunism.

No brother its not happening. In world war 2 USA got engaged as they were far away from conflict zone

 

[Figaro]

A war between China and the US would be a lot worse/deadlier than that between Japan and the US. For one thing, much of the US Navy's damage/sunken tonnage was due to Japanese Kamikaze attacks (especially in the second half of the war) rather than direct enemy action. And even when sunk by direct enemy action (i.e. a Japanese submarine), many of the ship's crews managed to evacuate way before the actual sinking. With these ASBMs though it is completely different ... one hit could potentially kill hundreds of sailors instantly and even cause a carrier to sink, not to mention destroyers. Especially against something like the DF-26A/B/C, it is simply impossible to avoid these ASBMs due to the 4000+ km range ... of course, the US indeed has the best anti-ASBM weaponry in the world (i.e. SM-III), but I would not count on its performance against massed ASBM strikes. Interceptors have traditionally had a much more difficult task than the actual missile itself and ASBMs are no different. I can bet that the terminal maneuvering and course corrections for the DF-26 or DF-21D is the best in the Chinese ballistic missile arsenal, which by itself is the most advanced ballistic missile collection (due to the INF treaty).

 

[Figaro]

You really are a dim-wit aren't you?

Trying to compare Covid-19 response in US with US military power.

So sweet seeing you talk against US while hiding out in US. Is China not good enough for you little boy?

No need to waste my time with you anymore.

You really need to calm down ... if you do not like his response, you do not have to lash out at him. You have been tossing flame bait in a bunch of threads lately and no one else launches a personal attack on you. Both you and I can disagree with his perspective, but calling someone names and patronizing them just weakens your own profile, especially when he is responding with civil arguments.

 

[PanzerKiel]

If this happens, I promise you I'll buy you a coke.....in either Taipei or Srinagar, your choice.

I wonder which coke you are referring to.

 

[UKBengali]

You really need to calm down ... if you do not like his response, you do not have to lash out at him. You have been tossing flame bait in a bunch of threads lately and no one else launches a personal attack on you. Both you and I can disagree with his perspective, but calling someone names and patronizing them just weakens your own profile, especially when he is responding with civil arguments.

Read the whole thread and you will see he started it first by (trying) to insult me.

The fact that you are Chinese -American like him is obviously clouding your judgement. That already weakens your credibility here.

I have been on this forum for nearly 10 years and have never been banned and that is because I am civil to those that are civil to me. Pretty sure that poster you are defending has been banned multiple times over the years.

You obviously do not like that I am one of the few non-US/Indian/Vietnamese posters that challenge Chinese claims of military supremacy.

A bunch of Chinese, whether domestic or overseas, ganging up on me is not going to stop me.

 

[ziaulislam]

Sometime between October 10 and October 22, the US will announce an adjustment in the One China Policy and upgrade its diplomatic relations with Taiwan to ambassador level. Within 24 hours, PLAAF will penetrate Taiwan airspace and commence an air war over Taiwan. The US will deploy at least one aircraft carrier to an area around 1000 km east of Taiwan to try to defend it. Fighter jets / bombers from Japanese bases and Guam will also join the war. Meanwhile, at least two aircraft carriers will travel from the Indian Ocean through the Straits of Malacca and launch an attack on China's South China Sea islands.

Within a few days of fighting, at least three US aircraft carriers will be heavily damaged by missile strikes and many US bases in Japan as well as Guam will be bombed. PLA will land on Taiwan within 3 days from the start of hostilities and the Taiwan will be declared fully liberated within one week.

During the Sino-US War of 2020, India will launch an attack in Ladakh on PLA but will suffer more than 100,000 casualties within one week from the PLA artillery and rocket fire. Then a 2.5 front war scenario will push them out from Leh and Kashmir Valley by November.

Trump will use the conflict as an excuse to postpone the November election indefinitely.

This isnt moa era china with geat march strategy

 

[Feng Leng]

The PLA (Eastern Theater Command) just posted this video (on Weibo) declaring war on Taiwan and anybody who tries to stop us!

 

[ziaulislam]

US can surge 8 supercarriers and a number of their smaller ones in wartime.

You underestimate just how many they can deploy if they really wanted to. Maintenance and other things can be cut short if there is a pressing need.

PLAAN and China would suffer massive defeat if USN intervened to defend Taiwan and it will stay this way for at least another 10 years.

Usa would not intervene for a country it doesnt accept there is no apetite for it
However china has no reason to force it hands if it can achieve things peacefully

 

[Baibars_1260]

These scenarios are discussed in a very interesting way in the following videos. It would seem comical that a glove puppet would have so much insight but these videos have some serious defence analysis and professional war gaming resources behind them. The glove puppet is a presentation gimmick only. Otherwise VERY informative.

Binkov's Battleground

 

[ziaulislam]

One more thing, off the topic, but relevant to China.
This Chorona virus has done one thing very significant: Reduced petroleum consumption to a level that Arabs are at the verge of bankruptcy. The longer this crisis go, the more Arabs will become weak and the more they will be ready to recognize Israel.
Only God knows, who built this Corona Virus, but it seems that Arabs were main target, and China was made scapegoat.

Arabs had a trillion dollars fund each..just the interest on them is enough to run these countries if they stopping buy yatches

 

[Viet]

US can surge 8 supercarriers and a number of their smaller ones in wartime.

You underestimate just how many they can deploy if they really wanted to. Maintenance and other things can be cut short if there is a pressing need.

PLAAN and China would suffer massive defeat if USN intervened to defend Taiwan and it will stay this way for at least another 10 years.

You are wrong.
Chinese warships never need maintenance.
They can run 24/7 all years without rest and fuel.
Chinese sailors are thank chinese superfoods invincible.
Chinese missiles will mercilessly target New York, Tokyo, New Delhi, Soul, Hanoi.
We all are too afraid to even raise our hands to surrender.

 

[The Accountant]

Won't happen.

If China really strikes 3 US carriers, they will tuck their tail between their legs and run.

Bravado and chest thumping is cheap when you are the sole superpower of the world and you only ever attacked defenseless countries.

China will not strike any carrier battle group. Not because china can't because both China and USA cant afford the consequences of such an action.

 

[UKBengali]

You are wrong.
Chinese warships never need maintenance.
They can run 24/7 all years without rest and fuel.
Chinese sailors are thank chinese superfoods invincible.
Chinese missiles will mercilessly target New York, Tokyo, New Delhi, Soul, Hanoi.
We all are too afraid to even raise our hands to surrender.

The premise of this whole thread is ludicrous as China does not have the military power in 2020 to beat the USA if it decided to get involved to defend Taiwan.

It does not really matter if the USA will actually risk it's carriers to defend Taiwan but that China thinks it may do so.

Any war now between USA and China over Taiwan would be very bloody. Taiwan would be devastated, USN will take some losses including potentially some carriers but the Chinese Navy and Airforce would suffer terrible losses.

End result would be that a devastated Taiwan is still not captured, Chinese military is severely depleted and it's economy suffers under a USN and possible JN blockade if China attacks Japanese soil.

PS - If we run this in 2030, then the calculus may change with China maybe having the upper hand.