October Surprise: my prediction for war

[Feng Leng]

A very optimistic analysis, what happens in worst case scenario? China suffers huge losses and Taiwan is successfully defended?

I don't think US will intervene and confront China directly but may support Taiwan through weapons supplies information/intelligence, logistics and tactical support. Any attack on mainland China could lead to attack on west coast of USA which could spiral out of control splitting the world into a new world war. The Zion appointed heads of states are now well established around world so the pieces are set and the timetable read and it is just a question of when.

China cannot be defeated. The worst case scenario is we launch all our nukes at US population centers and reduce American population to <10 million.

 

[The Accountant]

Sometime between October 10 and October 22, the US will announce an adjustment in the One China Policy and upgrade its diplomatic relations with Taiwan to ambassador level. Within 24 hours, PLAAF will penetrate Taiwan airspace and commence an air war over Taiwan. The US will deploy at least one aircraft carrier to an area around 1000 km east of Taiwan to try to defend it. Fighter jets / bombers from Japanese bases and Guam will also join the war. Meanwhile, at least two aircraft carriers will travel from the Indian Ocean through the Straits of Malacca and launch an attack on China's South China Sea islands.

Within a few days of fighting, at least three US aircraft carriers will be heavily damaged by missile strikes and many US bases in Japan as well as Guam will be bombed. PLA will land on Taiwan within 3 days from the start of hostilities and the Taiwan will be declared fully liberated within one week.

During the Sino-US War of 2020, India will launch an attack in Ladakh on PLA but will suffer more than 100,000 casualties within one week from the PLA artillery and rocket fire. Then a 2.5 front war scenario will push them out from Leh and Kashmir Valley by November.

Trump will use the conflict as an excuse to postpone the November election indefinitely.

The attack by USA is not happening. In past several decades USA never attack a country that can fight back and they will not change the tradition. However, China attacking Taiwan is a real possibility. USA, at max will engage by providing, weapons directly to Taiwan.

 

[Mista]

Sometime between October 10 and October 22, the US will announce an adjustment in the One China Policy and upgrade its diplomatic relations with Taiwan to ambassador level. Within 24 hours, PLAAF will penetrate Taiwan airspace and commence an air war over Taiwan. The US will deploy at least one aircraft carrier to an area around 1000 km east of Taiwan to try to defend it. Fighter jets / bombers from Japanese bases and Guam will also join the war. Meanwhile, at least two aircraft carriers will travel from the Indian Ocean through the Straits of Malacca and launch an attack on China's South China Sea islands.

Within a few days of fighting, at least three US aircraft carriers will be heavily damaged by missile strikes and many US bases in Japan as well as Guam will be bombed. PLA will land on Taiwan within 3 days from the start of hostilities and the Taiwan will be declared fully liberated within one week.

During the Sino-US War of 2020, India will launch an attack in Ladakh on PLA but will suffer more than 100,000 casualties within one week from the PLA artillery and rocket fire. Then a 2.5 front war scenario will push them out from Leh and Kashmir Valley by November.

Trump will use the conflict as an excuse to postpone the November election indefinitely.

Nice movie plot. When are you submitting the script to Zhang Yimou or Wu Jing?

 

[gambit]

The attack by USA is not happening. In past several decades USA never attack a country that can fight back and they will not change the tradition. However, China attacking Taiwan is a real possibility. USA, at max will engage by providing, weapons directly to Taiwan.

China can attack US who supplies weapons to Taiwan. But then again, the US can fight back.

 

[Mista]

This is why I love Feng Leng. He is a legend on this forum.

He's a legend together with @Viva_Viet

 

[KAL-EL]

He's a legend together with @Viva_Viet

@Viva_Viet Is the true legend here.

 

[The Accountant]

China can attack US who supplies weapons to Taiwan. But then again, the US can fight back.

China will not attack USA ... china will announce naval blockade of taiwan which can be easily achieved.

USA will not try to break in into naval blockade. It will not risk its carrier over taiwan.

Like usa china will not risk war with usa by initiating the attack.

 

[Uguduwa]

What are we smoking here? Can I have some too?

 

[Figaro]

To unify Taiwan by force, China needs at least 30-50 thousand nuclear warheads. Not to attack Taiwan, but to prepare in the event of the United States and the West intervening.

This is absolutely crazy. There is no way the US or the West would nuke China if they invade Taiwan. Even if they respond militarily, they will not go nuclear.

PLA can order 100-200 thousand MOABs from Norinco and buy FOAB from Russia with TOT. It is very effective against Taiwan.

MOAB/FOAB technology is not very advanced at all ... the more important technology is the new generation of cluster munitions, which I believe Norinco has already developed, that can put an entire airbase out of action. There is no point in something like the FOAB anyway because it would require a H-6 for delivery, which by all means is not very survivable. Even if the H-20 was available, I would doubt the efficacy of sacrificing other ordinances all for the sake of a massive bomb.

He's a legend together with @Viva_Viet

Feng Leng is just the Chinese Viva Viet and vice versa.

 

[gambit]

They can't cut this maintenance.

You have no idea what you are talking about. Show proof or gtfo.

Yes, we can. And I do know what am talking about. I taught Aircraft Battle Damage Repair (ABDR) when I was on the F-111.

https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Artic...tle-damage-repair-engineering-to-wright-patt/

You have no idea what Maintenance can do with a broomstick and aluminum from soda cans to make the F-111 fully mission capable (FMC) again to make it all the way to Moscow and back to England.

 

[gambit]

China will not attack USA ...

Why not?

You insinuated that the US will not attack anyone who can fight back probably because of cowardice. So why not the reverse? It make sense to attack the one who arms your opponent, right?

 

[Place Of Space]

This is absolutely crazy. There is no way the US or the West would nuke China if they invade Taiwan. Even if they respond militarily, they will not go nuclear.

MOAB/FOAB technology is not very advanced at all ... the more important technology is the new generation of cluster munitions, which I believe Norinco has already developed, that can put an entire airbase out of action. There is no point in something like the FOAB anyway because it would require a H-6 for delivery, which by all means is not very survivable. Even if the H-20 was available, I would doubt the efficacy of sacrificing other ordinances all for the sake of a massive bomb.

Feng Leng is just the Chinese Viva Viet and vice versa.

He is making fun with others. Anyway, guys are commenting here, otherwise the forum is like a quiescent pool.

 

[The Accountant]

Why not?

You insinuated that the US will not attack anyone who can fight back probably because of cowardice. So why not the reverse? It make sense to attack the one who arms your opponent, right?

I dont meant cowardice. I consider it logical thinking. To prefer on ground facts over emotions. China will takes in decision in similar calculated logical way like USA.

The threshold of war between 2 nuclear countries is very high. Take for example of Pakistan and India. They bombed our land (without any causality) we bombed them and we took down their planes but despite such a big incident it does not result in a war. If Pakistan and India who are sworn enemy can refrain themselves then why not USA and China.

USA and China are not even enemy and are fighting for global dominance. A war between them means destruction of both of them so that none of them remains in power and some third country will reap the benefit.

Both of the countries have very capable political and miltary minds who plan for several decades ahead and both of us know that this planning includes preparation for a military direct military confrontation with each other but in planning it involves avoiding the direct confrontation at all possible cost.

At best USA will attack china via proxy which is most likely to be Indians .

 

[Feng Leng]

The attack by USA is not happening. In past several decades USA never attack a country that can fight back and they will not change the tradition. However, China attacking Taiwan is a real possibility. USA, at max will engage by providing, weapons directly to Taiwan.

The Sino American War will be the first time the US has fought a peer power since WW2. In the last one or twoy years, Beijing has ramped up nuclear warhead production (~1000 warheads for now, I think) but this should have been done five or ten years ago. Already, it is difficult for American decisionmakers to get their heads around the idea that China has a nuclear arsenal of comparable size. This weakens the deterrence value and encourages opportunism.

 

[Bengal71]

Sometime between October 10 and October 22, the US will announce an adjustment in the One China Policy and upgrade its diplomatic relations with Taiwan to ambassador level. Within 24 hours, PLAAF will penetrate Taiwan airspace and commence an air war over Taiwan. The US will deploy at least one aircraft carrier to an area around 1000 km east of Taiwan to try to defend it. Fighter jets / bombers from Japanese bases and Guam will also join the war. Meanwhile, at least two aircraft carriers will travel from the Indian Ocean through the Straits of Malacca and launch an attack on China's South China Sea islands.

Within a few days of fighting, at least three US aircraft carriers will be heavily damaged by missile strikes and many US bases in Japan as well as Guam will be bombed. PLA will land on Taiwan within 3 days from the start of hostilities and the Taiwan will be declared fully liberated within one week.

During the Sino-US War of 2020, India will launch an attack in Ladakh on PLA but will suffer more than 100,000 casualties within one week from the PLA artillery and rocket fire. Then a 2.5 front war scenario will push them out from Leh and Kashmir Valley by November.

Trump will use the conflict as an excuse to postpone the November election indefinitely.

Unlikely but never say never. If it happens as you said, due to covid-19, I will pay online in the best restaurant in your city for you and your family to have a candle light dinner.