Martian2
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Dec 15, 2009
- Messages
- 5,809
- Reaction score
- -37
1. A few years ago, the Mongolians had a bad winter and asked China for help. Russia had ignored Mongolian pleas for help, because Mongolia is a competitor against Russia in exporting natural resources. This means Mongolia is pliable when it's desperate.
2. Most people think the threat from the West will come along China's East Coast. That is not so. The real Western threat is the creep of NATO forces along with the European Union expansion along the Silk Road.
3. The Chinese logic of maintaining a North Korean buffer state applies to China's northern and western borders. The West-Russia rupture is an unprecedented opportunity for China to establish long-term, deep, and lasting ties with Russia.
4. If you run out of ideas, it's a good plan to copy your competitor's best strategies. Right now, the European Union is running circles around Russia and China. It's time to turn the tables on the EU. Copy the EU's best inducements and make similar offers to neighboring countries. Let's start with Kazakhstan.
5. For those that want to do nothing, that's exactly the attitude of the Qing Dynasty before it collapsed in the face of European power. The Europeans (with American support in the background) are coming again. Let's not repeat the Qing Dynasty mistake. It's time to counter the Europeans while China still has maneuvering room.
Think of geopolitics as a chessboard. The West controls most of the squares on the board. The West controls North America, Europe, Australia, and has strong influence over Latin America and the Middle East. The only squares left on the board are Russia and Central Asia that are between the powerful West/Europe and China. A smart China would try to grab the remaining Russian and Central Asian squares.
If China does nothing, I guarantee the West will grab the remaining squares. If a weaker leader like Medvedev (or another Boris Yeltsin) was in office, Russia might capitulate to the West. Events can change very quickly. Putin was caught off-guard by the fast-changing events in Ukraine. When it comes, China will have a lot less time than people think.
If Russia crumbles under prolonged and ever-tightening sanctions, NATO will be on China's northern doorstep in the blink of an eye.
Threat of US sanctions and stopping Saudi oil headed for China on the high seas. It's a complex problem.
A prerequisite is that China has to control the high seas. The PLA Navy is twenty years away from that scenario. It is unclear whether equal naval power is a sufficient reason to move ahead. Another problem is losing important customers in the US and Europe. There is a difficult weighing of interests.
2. Most people think the threat from the West will come along China's East Coast. That is not so. The real Western threat is the creep of NATO forces along with the European Union expansion along the Silk Road.
3. The Chinese logic of maintaining a North Korean buffer state applies to China's northern and western borders. The West-Russia rupture is an unprecedented opportunity for China to establish long-term, deep, and lasting ties with Russia.
4. If you run out of ideas, it's a good plan to copy your competitor's best strategies. Right now, the European Union is running circles around Russia and China. It's time to turn the tables on the EU. Copy the EU's best inducements and make similar offers to neighboring countries. Let's start with Kazakhstan.
5. For those that want to do nothing, that's exactly the attitude of the Qing Dynasty before it collapsed in the face of European power. The Europeans (with American support in the background) are coming again. Let's not repeat the Qing Dynasty mistake. It's time to counter the Europeans while China still has maneuvering room.
Think of geopolitics as a chessboard. The West controls most of the squares on the board. The West controls North America, Europe, Australia, and has strong influence over Latin America and the Middle East. The only squares left on the board are Russia and Central Asia that are between the powerful West/Europe and China. A smart China would try to grab the remaining Russian and Central Asian squares.
If China does nothing, I guarantee the West will grab the remaining squares. If a weaker leader like Medvedev (or another Boris Yeltsin) was in office, Russia might capitulate to the West. Events can change very quickly. Putin was caught off-guard by the fast-changing events in Ukraine. When it comes, China will have a lot less time than people think.
If Russia crumbles under prolonged and ever-tightening sanctions, NATO will be on China's northern doorstep in the blink of an eye.
Threat of US sanctions and stopping Saudi oil headed for China on the high seas. It's a complex problem.
A prerequisite is that China has to control the high seas. The PLA Navy is twenty years away from that scenario. It is unclear whether equal naval power is a sufficient reason to move ahead. Another problem is losing important customers in the US and Europe. There is a difficult weighing of interests.
Last edited:
