"Pivot to Asia" is a classic military diversionary tactic
This post is part two in my five-part series. I will try to convince you that the "Pivot to Asia" is not a viable military plan. It is a well-publicized diversion to attract China's attention. In the meantime, NATO's real thrust will come from Kazakhstan. I have included the first post "NATO's Grand Plan" below for those that haven't read it.
1. NATO's Grand Plan
2. "Pivot to Asia" is a classic military diversionary tactic
3. Concentric Layers of Defense
4. Why is the US/NATO resorting to military instead of economic power?
5. Why does the West want Kazakhstan so badly? Full-benefits analysis.
EMP
The "Pivot to Asia" is centered on military power. Let's start with the 11 American carrier battle groups. To a non-nuclear power, the American carriers are rather frightening. To China, a single megaton-class EMP will destroy all of the electronics and sensors on the carriers. The carriers will be neutralized before they can cross the Pacific.
Let's say China doesn't use a thermonuclear-based EMP. China can stop the carriers with conventional-powered EMP. An example is China's YJ-18 ASCM with 50-meter EMP radius. (Citation:
YJ-18 )
A2/AD
Aside from EMP weapons, China can use its DF-21D ASBM (ie. anti-ship ballistic missile). It is simply impossible for US carriers to sail within two thousand miles of China's coast. The use of Chinese ASBMs, C-802 and C-803 (with a supersonic terminal phase) anti-ship cruise missiles, CM506-KG precision-guided glide-bombs, and Yu-6/Mark 48 torpedoes in a simultaneous multi-axial attack is unstoppable. Additionally, since a cruise missile is easier to build than a manned fighter, China probably has stealth cruise missiles.
As you can see, the "Pivot to Asia" is starting to look like a turkey. It doesn't make any military sense and the carriers are not survivable against Chinese A2/AD (ie. anti-access area-denial) defensive weaponry.
The only other source of American aircraft is on the military bases in Asia. The problem is that a "RAND [study] claimed that a volley of 34 Chinese ballistic missiles could damage, destroy or strand 75 percent of aircraft” at Kadena AFB. (Citation:
Air Force Plans to Dodge Chinese Missile Barrage | WIRED )
Ring of Fire
The fundamental problem is the exposure of aircraft, repair bays, oil facilities, parts warehouses, etc. to a missile attack with submunitions. To solve this problem, American bases in Asia must be re-located deep underground. However, this is not possible. Japan is located on the Ring of Fire and is seismically unstable.
China's IAD (ie. Integrated Air Defense)
By some miracle, let's assume some American aircraft survived China's EMP and A2/AD barrages. The next obstacle is China's Integrated Air Defenses (IAD). With overlapping networks of radars, including the JY-26 “Skywatch-U” 3-D long-range air surveillance anti-stealth radar (citation:
China's Anti-Stealth Radar Comes to Fruition | Defense News | defensenews.com ), China's coast is almost impenetrable. Hundreds of HQ-9, S-300, and soon S-400 missiles will intercept aircraft approaching China's coast.
Chinese fighter intercept
Assuming a few enemy aircraft managed to breach China's IAD, the remaining survivors would have to face China's fleet of over 600 fourth-generation fighters. Within three years, China will also field fifth-generation J-20 stealth fighter interceptors.
Conclusion
In conclusion, it is implausible to threaten China from the sea. It is impossible to penetrate China's gauntlet of EMP (both thermonuclear and conventional), A2/AD, China's IAD, and Chinese fighter interceptors (both fourth-generation and soon fifth-generation stealth fighters). The only rational explanation is that the "Pivot to Asia" is designed to distract China from looking westward at the real plan of using Kazakhstan as the western "staging ground" to threaten China militarily.
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NATO's Grand Plan
To appreciate China's security, it is necessary to understand NATO's Grand Plan. Let's look at the map.
In 2008, the EU/NATO attempted to bring Georgia into the EU/NATO club. Unfortunately, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili was too aggressive and killed 10 Russian peacekeepers. This precipitated the Russo-Georgian War and derailed Georgia's membership in the EU/NATO.
If Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili had not been a loose cannon, the NATO plan would have continued in the following manner. The EU and NATO would have expanded into the following countries.
1. Azerbaijan (the land bridge across the Caucasus would have been complete)
2. Kazakhstan (EU gains control of Kazakh oil and gas supplies to China. EU also gains control of pipelines to China.)
3. Uzbekistan (EU gains control of transit pipelines for Turkmenistan gas to China)
4. Turkmenistan (EU gains control of China's 30 billion cubic meters per year gas supply. Turkmenistan gas has been contractually increased to 60 billion cubic meters per year for 2018.)
5. Mongolia (Western-most Mongolia almost touches Eastern-most Kazakhstan and is the EU's/NATO's final target.)
With the Stans and Mongolia under Western control and inside the NATO alliance, NATO has China's western and northern flanks surrounded. Also, NATO would have all of southern Russia surrounded as well.
If the West had been able to execute NATO's Grand Plan, both Russia and China would have been surrounded by NATO forces.