Military Simulation - The Indo-Pak conflict - A hyperbole

[Joe Shearer]

My questions were more out of naivety than assumed intent. I'm looking for a good reason for India to attack the south. I simply don't know what the objective should be. You should be able to answer this well I hope.

First, my reaction is not to be taken personally; the assumed intent is incorporated in man-in-the-street thinking on both sides of the border.

Assuming for a moment that an Indian attack on the southern reaches of Pakistan is a given, and we have to think within those boundaries, for me, at the risk of offending a large number of hyper-patriotic Indian compatriots, it would be to degrade Pakistani war-making capabilities, and give them enough to do rebuilding to keep them busy for a few years.

Nothing more ambitious than that.

It would be intended to take the slender economic edge that India seems to have - given our awesome talent in the central ministries at the moment, this may well be an ephemereal advantage - and use it to push Pakistan down a few steps and make the country work hard to recover its military, economic and financial position.

the idea can be very realistic and nitpicky

Preferred.

The thought of leaving forces loose to see what comes of it is a blood-chilling thought.

 

[SQ8]

First, my reaction is not to be taken personally; the assumed intent is incorporated in man-in-the-street thinking on both sides of the border.

Assuming for a moment that an Indian attack on the southern reaches of Pakistan is a given, and we have to think within those boundaries, for me, at the risk of offending a large number of hyper-patriotic Indian compatriots, it would be to degrade Pakistani war-making capabilities, and give them enough to do rebuilding to keep them busy for a few years.

Nothing more ambitious than that.

It would be intended to take the slender economic edge that India seems to have - given our awesome talent in the central ministries at the moment, this may well be an ephemereal advantage - and use it to push Pakistan down a few steps and make the country work hard to recover its military, economic and financial position.


Preferred.

The thought of leaving forces loose to see what comes of it is a blood-chilling thought.

Ok
So I go to work on this tonight - taking cue from @PanzerKiel and working around ground forces - where would those IAF forces be deployed in terms of bases.
So for e.g. https://www.scramble.nl/planning/orbats/india/india-air-force

What needs to be different to reflect possible forward positions of forces.

Once reiterating for the general public that if we are going realistic we are all bound to obfuscate some lest we get accused of leaking information by the hyper jingoistic ones.

Basically, 54 RAMFOR Division, three amphibious brigades, 50 Para, 21 Corps (31 AD, couple of RAPIDs and an infantry division) for a ground offensive coupled with a sea-borne landing on our coastal flank.

For IAF, with a basic ORBAT of 12 squadrons (three SU-30, three Mig-21, two Mig-27, one Mig-29, three Jaguar) suitably reinforced with additional squadrons from the Eastern Air Command (minimum one Su-30 and two Mig-27 squadrons)

Naval assets are of course centered around the CBG. @SQ8 do plan a naval blockade as well.


A specific scenario always comes to my mind, read it somewhere, whereby both sides decided to conducted airborne landings / airfield seizure operations with military aircraft taking due advantage of the civilian traffic.


Cutting of North South Road - north of Nawabshah, north and south of Mirpur Khas, capture of coal deposits, capture area upto Thatta from Bhuj side, a seaborn landing between Karachi and Kund Malir to attack defender's responses away from the eastern side.

Are the amphibious landing via craft or hopping across the kutch. The achilles heel of the simulation platform is ground movement (also why its modern air and naval warfare).
The link I posted for Joe is what I use to position air assets so FOB deployment is ? https://www.scramble.nl/planning/orbats/india/india-air-force also has it for Pakistan

I specifically wanted to think of a 2024-25 timeline so could include updated systems ans UASs but also the newer elements of the ADGE.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Ok
So I go to work on this tonight - taking cue from @PanzerKiel and working around ground forces - where would those IAF forces be deployed in terms of bases.
So for e.g. https://www.scramble.nl/planning/orbats/india/india-air-force

What needs to be different to reflect possible forward positions of forces.

Once reiterating for the general public that if we are going realistic we are all bound to obfuscate some lest we get accused of leaking information by the hyper jingoistic ones.


Are the amphibious landing via craft or hopping across the kutch. The achilles heel of the simulation platform is ground movement (also why its modern air and naval warfare).
The link I posted for Joe is what I use to position air assets so FOB deployment is ? https://www.scramble.nl/planning/orbats/india/india-air-force also has it for Pakistan

I specifically wanted to think of a 2024-25 timeline so could include updated systems ans UASs but also the newer elements of the ADGE.

I am going off line for a little while to put down everything neatly and comprehensibly. Be right back.

Are the amphibious landing via craft or hopping across the kutch.

This is agonising temptation. The solution is so attractive, and well within our grasp. Ah, well, back soon, but with present resources and present thinking and equipment.

 

[PanzerKiel]

Ok
So I go to work on this tonight - taking cue from @PanzerKiel and working around ground forces - where would those IAF forces be deployed in terms of bases.

Bhuj, Jamnagar, Jaisalmer, Jodhpur, Pune, Utterlai, Phalodi and Naliya. Some more carrier based as well.

 

[SQ8]

Bhuj, Jamnagar, Jaisalmer, Jodhpur, Pune, Utterlai, Phalodi and Naliya. Some more carrier based as well.

Ok - so have
IAF
Bhuj - 18sq Jaguar IS Darin 3
Jaisalmer- Mi-17 Hip H, Searcher IIs no combat aircraft per public orbat - FOB For which sq hypothetically?
Jodhpur - 31sq MKIs, 32sq Bisons along with Mi-17s and Dhruvs
Utterlai - 4sq Bisons
Pune - No deployment
Suratgarh - 23sq Bisons
Naliya - MKIs(based on google maps but not sure if detachment or full deployment and from which sq - my guess is 2sq from Tezpur)
Phalodi is empty - not sure what goes there , seems best suited for Jaguars maybe?
They did retire the Mig-27 so I am guessing either a MKIsq or a Jaguar sq has taken on that gap.

16 Mig-29s on Vikramaditya positioned here.

 

[SQ8]

First pass - and PN ships haven't been put in place.
I am guessing the assumption is that a buildup has happened and lets say 2024ish another short term op has preceded this?

I dont think keeping a Amphibious group that closer to PN A2/AD assets may be a good idea but I am just assuming the amphibious group loads onto the LSTs from there.

 

[PanzerKiel]

View attachment 831265

First pass - and PN ships haven't been put in place.
I am guessing the assumption is that a buildup has happened and lets say 2024ish another short term op has preceded this?

You can also keep couple of PN subs on war patrol in international waters as per normal procedures. Same for IN as well. Happens in peacetime.

 

[surya kiran]

What is the Indian objective here?

from earlier post, copy pasting.

a. The reason, I say hold or make Pakistan lose/lose control over territory which is uninhabited is admitting that it will be difficult to achieve control over terrain which has been defended strongly by the PA. Which is why, I say threaten the cities to bog down the main defensive force while controlling uninhabited terrain.

b. Why do I say, concentrate on the coast and marshy area? As a country, we keep thinking of Kashmir, Punjab. Why? Because the are beautiful and we believe them to be truly ours? Arable? My belief is we need to concentrate on longer term. Kashmir and Punjab are well defended and both sides have set pieces. If we are to threaten Pakistan for the long term what could it be? Take out their access to the coast. Above Karachi, you have Balochistan. Let us forget about wanting to control the populated centres of Pakistan. If we are able to threaten Karachi even during peace, it becomes precarious.

c. Access to the coast gives access to the continental shelf and thereby the EEZ. Control over the EEZ south of Karachi is bigger than Kashmir. It is low visibility, high value terrain.

d. Loss of control or threat of loss of control of terrain between Hyd and Karachi and we threaten CPEC. This means, Pak will be forced to move troops from the North to the South. This they will be forced to do in the long term also. Which is what I hinted at earlier. Simultaneously talk about similar projects on equal basis with China from our East to our west. On our terms. This can involve security guarantees which we can provide. China for this needs to ensure peace across our border. China needs to support our route to the South East via Burma.

e. Our long term goal, if we decide to go on the offensive should be to degrade the lines of trade of Pakistan to the outside world, by ensuring gradual loss of control of territory for the PA.

 

[surya kiran]

What would be a southern offensive from India look like?

The visible objective will be to push towards Hyd and Mirpur and Umarkot and blockading Karachi.

The real objective will be to control the following block in the South
Suddoi
LBOD
Badein
Thatta
Gharo

The Thar coal block in the north should be secondary objective.

 

[SQ8]

The visible objective will be to push towards Hyd and Mirpur and Umarkot and blockading Karachi.

The real objective will be to control the following block in the South
Suddoi
LBOD
Badein
Thatta
Gharo

The Thar coal block in the north should be secondary objective.

Any thoughts on the ORBAT?
Specifically IAF based on earlier airbases highlighted?
I am not a land warfare guy so might need help understanding what is in the composition to put in motjon.

 

[PanzerKiel]

Any thoughts on the ORBAT?
Specifically IAF based on earlier airbases highlighted?
I am not a land warfare guy so might need help understanding what is in the composition to put in motjon.

Land ORBAT? Can you tell me specifically in what form you want? Divisions, brigades, units, numbers etc? In which form?

 

[surya kiran]

Any thoughts on the ORBAT?
Specifically IAF based on earlier airbases highlighted?
I am not a land warfare guy so might need help understanding what is in the composition to put in motjon.

Will need to read, hopefully Sunday. Not exactly a military expert. Sorry.

 

[Warking]

This simulation lost any sense of realism after the hurr durr kashmir tribal rebels have f16s now. No possible rebellion in india india good.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Are the amphibious landing via craft or hopping across the kutch. The achilles heel of the simulation platform is ground movement (also why its modern air and naval warfare).
The link I posted for Joe is what I use to position air assets so FOB deployment is ? https://www.scramble.nl/planning/orbats/india/india-air-force also has it for Pakistan

I specifically wanted to think of a 2024-25 timeline so could include updated systems ans UASs but also the newer elements of the ADGE.

Sir,

Plans are being made as quickly as possible, but it is taking longer than expected.

It is no fun dealing with the equipment and the formations presently available; far from being fun planning for them, it is clear that nothing can be accomplished given the difficulties of the terrain involved. Even if an MBT is geared to run at 60 kmph on level ground, no MBT in the IA inventory can traverse the terrain, by itself, at a speed of more than 10 to 20 kmph. By the time an offensive is mounted either from Jaisalmer towards Pano Aqil, or from Barmer towards Malir, it will take over 10 hours running without opposition for forces to reach Pano Aqil, and over 20, possibly closer to 40 hours to reach Malir. It is unlikely that the PAF will pass up the opportunity to pay homage to the memory of Wg. Cdr. Suresh, in paying their compliments to the formations involved.

It is proposed to put a formation on the doorstep of Pano Aqil in 6 hours' time, with sufficient firepower to keep @PanzerKiel 's rather nerve-wracking ATGMs at bay, and to put a formation in or around Malir in 12 hours' time.

I hope that will be exciting enough for the gentlemen concerned with dealing with such unexpected arrivals.

We are naturally talking of a first phase, and of a formal war objective of causing significant attrition to the opposing forces (regrettably, only two infantry divisions and a mechanised infantry division; how nice it would have been to deal with three armoured divisions instead). Subsequent phases, if any, will continue to have this objective.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Of course, it is also possible to push at Bahawalpur/Multan, though it will have lesser shock value than a thrust towards Karachi, and attract armoured formations, a far more desirable target. At the same time, these are, unfortunately, targets that are likely to shoot back.

Whatever will be presented for the Karachi sector can be used for Bahawalpur/Multan, pari passu.

Back to the drawing board.