Dear Eastwatch:
If you are referring to me then I would like to say you that it was not my prediction. N for 5 trillion usd economy in terms of PPP by 2050 is not a big deal considering Bangladesh likely to have 270 million people by then which will translate only 18500 usd per capita gdp and in terms of nominal only around 6000-8000 usd per capita GDP.
Even though 5 trillion usd number seems pretty big but after 4 decades with 270 million population it is not that big. I can show you numerous example of countries those who have 6000-8000 usd nominal per capita gdp but does not produce anything. But for Bangladesh with such a huge population you just can not turn down that nothing can be produced in Bangladesh. Even in 2000 no one expected Bangladesh to take 2nd position in RMG or to earn more then 12 billion usd in terms of remittance. Even not in years but ina decade time if the electricity crisis and infrastructure can be developed there is a big possibility of attracting manufacturing jobs from whole world.
Just instead of having a underestimating attitude for own country you should be ambitious to attain something which is achievable. We are not talking about having 4.5 trillion economy like japan now with 36000 usd per capita gdp but a mare 7000-8000 usd gdp (nominal) or 18000 usd (ppp) per capita gdp in 40 years. If you think it is not possible to achieve maintaining 7-7.5% gdp growth then it is better for Bangladesh to dissolve.
Lastly I think economists of renowned banks has better knowledge then many other ordinary people like you and me. Obviously no prediction is 100% perfect or is certain to happen but it is based on the fact that it is achievable. If so one must go after it.
Even in all the India's poor eastern state's gdp growth is 10% or more despite the fact that they dnt have industrialized capacity or export more or earn big remittance like Bangladesh. Bangladesh should learn from it and go after high gdp growth as high as possible. Obviously current political system is a big road block and shortage of electricity to attain that. It should be fixed as soon as possible.
Today, Bangladesh has not even reached the very important milestone of an economic "Takeoff stage." It is is still in the "Preparation stage" for reaching that stage. I wonder if you have a real comprehension about these two terms. BD has virtually no big industries. It has only a few POCKETS of low value textile industries. It cannot produce engines, motors, railway coach, locomotives, bus, car, truck. It cannot even ASSEMBLE these high value TERTIARY products at this preparation stage.
I am not trying to insult you, but, I must ask, do you really understand the true meaning of 'Value added cost?' If you know, then tell me which high value added products BD is producing now? It is nothing or almost nothing. It means, BD economy is only in the Preparation Stage with only a few pockets of 'Primary industries,' and note that this stage is always very long and time consuming, may be another 40 or 50 years.
So, how do you expect its economy to rise astronomically within the next 38 years to reach a fully MATURED economy of $5 trillion? I truly hope you also understand the term 'Maturity.' Please learn the fundamentals of "National economic development" before you waste your precious time to propagate a $5 trillion projection. Your innocent assumption is not that innocent when I see your trait of pushing your IMAGINATIONS through our throats. Please, be realistic.
You are not the PM and you are not the FM. So, why do you come with all those trashes time and again? Who believes in all those predictions made by the Hedge Fund managers in the western countries forwarded by their investment agents?
Now, answer one simple question, at what stage of time a technologically innovative BD will finally manufacture the NEEDLES for the sewing machines used in the garments factories? Another question, will the brilliants of BD ever manufacture the sewing machines itself? Forget about producing all those Indian and Chinese high value products that we import every day, instead, give an exact answer, please, and not a $5 trillion dream.
Why do you always make fuss with the population figure? Is not it a way of putting carts in front of the horse? Do you think, only a big population is enough if other fundamentals do not change? How about small population developed countries like Singapore, malaysia, South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Luxemburg, England, France and so? Why are they advanced with small population and why we are not advanced with a large population? Do you really have an answer? Do you also have an idea that there cannot be an unlimited increase of population?
People should learn first before they open their mouths. People at a young age must also cultivate a flexible mind. With your imaginative posts you bring shame to your countrymen in front of educated and knowing Indians and Pakistanis. Know the reality that when you are busy with your keyboard in Canada, there are millions of your own people who are working hard in the hot climate of Saudi Arabia just for a meagre earning.
