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Kashmir: Iran’s handling of Israel offers valuable lessons for Pakistan

Pakistan's current leader is a smart person who wants economic growth, development and prosperity for his people. This is kind of a rarity in subcontinent politics.
But this also means that he will likely not engage India in a significant military conflict for his current term, and likely the next one.
In 8 to 10 years, the goalposts would have moved. More kashmiris would move to the cities, and liberalise.
The military and economic disparity would increase further with time.
Time works in India's favor.

I don't think that wanting economic growth and development means that a military conflict is off the table.

Everything has a tipping point. Kashmir has a tipping point, we just don't know where the tipping point is yet.

If someone puts a gun to your head, you will have to make decision, even if you don't want to. If India goes too far and Pakistan is forced back against the wall, it will respond. How? No one knows. They will take action if Kashmir depends on it. As IK always says, never corner a tiger, because they will fight like their life depends on it, because it does. Pakistan always has and will always risk it all for Kashmir.
 
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Agree with this assessment

More conventional power is needed to some extent.

However, the number 1 rule of war is to never fight on the enemy’s terms, make the enemy fight on your terms.

India has a conventional numerical advantage barring any major Pakistani initiative to change the equation. However, Iran is the best example of how to employ asymmetric warfare against your enemy to level the playing field. Pakistan can win an asymmetric war against India so Pakistan must force India into an asymmetric war so India fights on Pakistan’s terms. Conventional capabilities can create a hybrid war where one can leverage both conventional and unconventional methods for maximum effect. Advantage of asymmetric doctrine is that smaller countries can be equal to or better than more powerful countries in an asymmetric war. So the playing field is leveled and India will not have an advantage being the bigger country while enabling Pakistan to inflict disproportionate damage on India relative to its size. Good example of that would be using conventional aircraft to carry out airstrikes while leveraging asymmetric capabilities like cyber warfare to simultaneously cripple the enemy’s communication and response. Missiles and proxies are also key to an asymmetric doctrine because they allow smaller countries to level the playing field against a larger enemy. A large arsenal of precision missiles act as force multipliers because they allow the enemy to target enemy airbases before they can be used to retaliate, severely delaying or complicating the enemy response. Proxies are a good method of weakening the enemy gradually or suddenly based on whatever the situation necessitates. The flexibility, adaptability, and plausible deniability of proxies make them ideal as they can manipulate change rapidly in a fluid and asymmetric environment.

What Pakistan really needs is a dual military system like Iran. Iran has Artesh and Sepah as conventional and asymmetric militaries that are run completely separate. A Pakistani Quds Force like organization and a cyber unit would go a long way in improving Pakistan’s asymmetric capabilities.

Your absolutely right. I want to touch few of your points.

Pakistan's asymmetric capabilities for attrition are hampered by 2 things. Threat of sanctions and depletion of resources in afghanistan which dilutes Pakistan's conventional strength and hence comprising its deterrent capabilities.

Threat of sanctions is most dangerous. To avoid it Pakistan must make it clear to NATO that Pakistan will not allow its territory to be used against western nations which musharraf actually tried to do (whether we like him or not)
Then also make it clear that if you view Pakistan's support of kashmir from india's view which is terrorism, it will go straight to the garbage bin. US will understand it. Musharraf again did some work on that.

Your point about cyber capabilities is v. important. But in Pakistan we can't even handle dawn and tribune. U will see china daily more positive and pro Pakistan than these two terror papers.

A news channel like Press Tv, proper pro pakistan english newspaper, a cyber corp which is part of cyber command of Pakistan armed forces just like in iran and US. A cyber corps will run social media centers, and also attack behind the enemy lines with asymmetric attacks. I would also put cyber battalions or platoons in each corp as well.

We should learn good things from Iran despite our differences with them. Sadly most Pakistanis only see Iran with a sectarian eye. I dont like Iran's regime at all, but their doctrine is worth a look.

On topic, your point about iranian missile deterrent is right. Iran will launch a saturation attack against any invader by not just ballistic or cruise but also Air defence networks which they have strongly woven. Imagine this deterrent. We have to plead with Pakistan armed forces to develop a declared conventional missile command its very important. Iran has the largest arsenal of missiles in M.east and we should have in S. asia.

Now about iran's revolutionary guard corp. I am of the view Pakistan needs an internal security force like iran, russia, india and egypt. Bhutto ( whether we like him or not) made federal security force with ex military. It should have continued and may be it would have become what sepah is today because sepah started as a purely internal guard and now look at it. If Pakistan army doesn't trust such a force, why not give rangers such a role.

Put all FCs and rangers and national guards under one name but with different sectors and develop special forces wings in them. They can their own intelligence wings. We can use them both internally and externally like iran does with sepah. Imagine a 3 hundred thousand strong paramilitary with all these capabilities.

Now, Iranian naval tactics can also be adopted. Why not have 20 missile boats comparable to azmat class. Why go for big ships only? Iranians deploy coastal missile defense, air defence systems and these missile boats in large numbers.

These things should be discussed more often with many members.
 
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You should be thankful to Mush.
Mush made the ultimate surrender after Op Parakaram.

Despite the fact that supporting the insurgency was economic military solution to Kashmir problem. It had tied down a large bulk of Indian forces and finances to counter-insurgency roles yielding benefit at strategic level for PA.
I am amazed that how conveniently they forget that Musharraf took a U-turn on Kashmir insurgency in 2003 or 2004 I believe when he used to beg to have a meeting with indian prime ministers like Wajpai and later with Manmohan singh. The same so-called "hero" and "killer of india" that was supposed to annihilate inida during kargil war in 1999. It just shows you the level of hypocrisy and shamelessness.
These @rseholes thought that they could resolve disputes through peaceful means; and if they appear like a "good boy" infront of the world, they would attain peace in the region. That ill thought policy came to bite them in the @rse when Indians started investing in Afghanistan and supporting insurgents inside Pakistan while slowly annexing Kashmir and promoting "Aman ki asha" through effective cultural aggression which caused the public and Pakistani leadership to become pro-India. We should be thankful to Modi that he came out in the open with his ideology, otherwise, our stupid leadership would have been easily fooled by Congress' two faced snakes. The sooner entire Pakistan realize that Delhi junta is incorrigible the better.

More kashmiris would move to the cities, and liberalise.
Try liberalizing BJP instead of Kashmiris. It would be better for many in your country.
 
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How do you build conventional muscle against somebody 5-10 times larger than you ?

Pakistan armed forces already have deterrent value. A small, agile and well armed force is enough. Vietnam also follows a deterrent doctrine with china so does japan. Greece is a good example also. Being one 1/8th of turkey in pop size defense budget being almost 1/5th and economy being almost 1/4th, Greece has deterrent value.
 
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These @rseholes thought that they could resolve disputes through peaceful means; and if they appear like a "good boy" infront of the world, they would attain peace in the region. That ill thought policy came to bite them in the @rse when Indians started investing in Afghanistan and supporting insurgents inside Pakistan while slowly annexing Kashmir and promoting "Aman ki asha" through effective cultural aggression which caused the public and Pakistani leadership to become pro-India. We should be thankful to Modi that he came out in the open with his ideology, otherwise, our stupid leadership would have been easily fooled by Congress' two faced snakes. The sooner entire Pakistan realize that Delhi junta is incorrigible the better.


Try liberalizing BJP instead of Kashmiris. It would be better for many in your country.

Since Musharraf's U-turn on Kashmir insurgency around 2003, the establishment in Pakistan has been trying to act like a showbiz actor to impress the so-called "international community". It is showbiz going on since 2003 on wards. There is no sense of pride, self-respect left in the power circles of Pakistan post 2003. We used to be an energetic, courageous country until 90s but these b******* that came into power post 2000s have ruined any kind of might that Pakistan used to have. I remember how much pride we used to have in our army before Musharraf's time, I have lost all kind of pride in them since musharraf's time. They weren't angels in earlier times but one thing is sure before Musharraf's dark age Pakistan was a power to reckon with, Pakistan was treated with respect something that has become a scarcity since Musharraf's dark age.
 
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Pakistan armed forces already have deterrent value. A small, agile and well armed force is enough. Vietnam also follows a deterrent doctrine with china so does japan. Greece is a good example also. Being one 1/8th of turkey in pop size defense budget being almost 1/5th and economy being almost 1/4th, Greece has deterrent value.

deterring is a lot different from conquering
 
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Nobody is talking specifics. If Pakistan uses proxies and things get too hot at LOC or elsewhere, the international community will jump in for both the countries having nuclear weapons. There India will have all the leverage of better economy, bigger market, better relations with the west and for the fact that it can point out to the fact that Pakistan is using proxies/terrorists. The boat for using proxies overtly has sailed after 9/11, without sanctions and all Pakistan is barely managing with the world against it forget about winning anything it very well might lose something.
 
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Since Musharraf's U-turn on Kashmir insurgency around 2003, the establishment in Pakistan has been trying to act like a showbiz actor to impress the so-called "international community". It is showbiz going on since 2004 on wards. There is no sense of pride, self-respect left in the power circles of Pakistan post 2003. We used to be an energetic, courageous country until 90s but these b******* that came into power post 2000s have ruined any kind of might that Pakistan used to have. I remember how much pride we used to have in our army before Musharraf's time, I have lost all kind of pride in them since musharraf's time. They weren't angels in earlier times but one thing is sure before Musharraf's dark age Pakistan was a power to reckon with.
Before Musharraf, military men were neither rich nor that corrupt. Even Yahya Khan always paid for his own whiskey and had only one average sized house as his sole property after retirement. Military officers usually lived hand to mouth. We had nothing in 90s; no BVR capable airforce, no nukes, no missiles but we stood like a rock against all odds.

Sadly, appeasing the West and India has taken its toll. It looks like courage,steadfastness and belief in the Almighty is no longer there; we are always thinking about economy, survival, sanctions and worst of all, our image in the West.
 
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Pakistan was undeclared nuclear power since the mid-1980s
Why was the Pressler amendment invoked ?
Don't you have something better to do other than nitpicking my dear Indian friend?
 
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Before Musharraf, military men were neither rich nor that corrupt. Even Yahya Khan always paid for his own whiskey and had only one average sized house as his sole property after retirement. Military officers usually lived hand to mouth. We had nothing in 90s; no BVR capable airforce, no nukes, no missiles but we stood like a rock against all odds.

Sadly, appeasing the West and India has taken its toll. It looks like courage,steadfastness and belief in the Almighty is no longer there; we are always thinking about economy, survival, sanctions and worst of all, our image in the West.

Musharraf made huge mistakes, but please realize the economy went downhill since ayub left power. 9/11 changed everything. Sadly, international terrorism became an issue and india was successful in putting kashmir in that category.
 
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