Kashmir: Iran’s handling of Israel offers valuable lessons for Pakistan

[Silverblaze]

Iran is keeping Israel on its toes by working on hard power that is deterrence through showing-off nukes. The unpredictability of aggressive credible response to any aggression is the key aspect of this model. Pakistan can design a similar model. What should Pakistan do to contain Indian influence on Kahsmir?


Pakistan can design a similar model. Just like Iran and Russia had common interests, Pakistan and China have common interests in Kashmir. Pakistan needs to encircle India in Kashmir by building strong forces in the region. Pakistan can give GB and Kashmir autonomy over security affairs. They can take steps in that direction including making conscription mandatory for the people of GB and Kashmir, setup own military force or full corps within the Pakistan army. These forces can launch a series of special operations inside Kashmir to disturb the Indian plans of demographic change.


https://www.globalvillagespace.com/...-israel-offers-valuable-lessons-for-pakistan/

From military perspective this is the most important point. Have been saying since 8 years - GB needs a full corps size formation especially recruited from GB.

But we are leaving the most important point. Afghanistan. Pakistan needs its own version of hizbullah or iraqi militias in Afghanistan. Iran uses them as force multipliers, stabilizers, and as a Damocles sword for the enemy.
Afghanistan is the single biggest threat facing Pakistan right now and saps Pakistan's already limited resources.

India is no israel and the anglo saxon countries dont feel the same way about india than they do about israel. hence maintaining a militia in afghanistan beefing up Pakistan ranks during war and a posing a threat to india in a sub-conventional context will keep the threat alive.

Pakistan's strategic doctrine must change. More conventional military muscle is needed and automatically the world will be serious again about kashmir.

 

[Sinnerman108]

Article is 100% correct, I have been saying the exact same thing for years. Pakistan must follow the Iranian model. I am making dua for the day Pakistani leaders realize we must project hard power like Iran.

After Pakistan, I have more respect for Iran than any other country.

Iran is not afraid to use force to send a clear message to its enemies.

Pakistan must follow the Iranian model and we must learn from it.

There was once a man
he invented the thousand cut strategy.

 

[AbuUmar]

Pakistan is not Iran, they can't stand pressure,sanctions, FATF etc. 2 Rs price increase in naan and the sky falls on you people. Iran is under sanctions from 1979, how long has FATF kept Pakistan in grey list?

 

[Silverblaze]

Furthermore, Pakistan must now strictly look at the indian occupation as a military problem requiring a military solution. For many years, diplomacy took a front seat. It hasnt worked.

Iranian model is relevant in some aspects. Iran doesnt have allies (Russia is not a staunch ally that will send its soldiers to help iran).

The regime in iran has created its own allies. Various groups being funded and armed by once source and its leadership basically selected by Iran.

Small powers operate as a nexus of allies - iran created its own - Pakistan must do the same.

Summary my two cents.

Doctrine- Combination of Deterrence by allied nexus and offense by attrition ( Like iranian model)
Strategy -Land warfare - More manpower and more mosaic defense layers ( No huge corps but smaller corps spread out) and Declared conventional Tactical Ballistic and cruise missile strike commands.

Air warfare - More Anti Air systems rather than jets.
Naval warfare - Again mosaic defence smaller missile ships spread out commands and more land based missile costal and air defence.

 

[Old School]

Iranian model also calls for acting against Pak interests in many folds. While Iran is pursuing dangerous crypto - imperialist policies in the region , we are trying to recover occupied territory which is illegally held by the Indians. Our objectives are not the same as the Iranians. Neither they can be our model.

 

[Stryker1982]

What handling? They are bombed daily by Israel that it become comical. They have never responded like never. Get outta here with this shit. I have never seen more restrain than Iran. They just sit flat and take hits for free.

Iran got itself just more enemies by trying to be nosy in some Arab countries it got Iran nothing but several enemies they didn't thought they would get it was massively counter-productive and backfired. By the way being nosy in India is just counter-productive. The best approach for Pakistan is to prepare and prepare for the inevitable event. Always prepare and develope for everything has it's time

Daily? Beyond wrong!.

Iran has far more success in the region than any of it's neighbors. Why don't you make observations betwene 1980-2020 and realize what hard power means. The restraint Iran has is more important than direct conflict, especially how attacks are not very common.

 

[Arulmozhi Varman]

Lots of holes. Even if the article is taken at face value, Israel is surrounded by Muslim countries, few of whom are unstable. Who are responsible for its state is a different argument. But Iran let's say, took advantage. But what have they done to Israel rather than rocket attacks through their proxies? Israel is eating them day and night by attacking targets in Syria and Lebanon. Israel rightfully isn't invading those regions.

Now take India or Kashmir for example. It's not surrounded by Muslim nations who do not share the enthusiasm for Jihad.

Iran is under hard sanctions and is using her oil money to fund wars. Do Pakistan has oil or any resource money to fund unlimited proxy wars in India and risks sanctions in the process? Even Russia and China can't supply weapons to Iran now due to arms embargoes. If that's the future Pakistan wants, their wish.

Even if Pakistani part of Kashmir is given autonomy to raise their own corps and do what they want, remember India can also do the same. Infact we can attack more boldly and claim no Pakistani soldiers were killed and it's only Kashmiri soldiers, even though PAF may provide official aircover if that's the plan.

For any plan to work, you need to have people on your side. A mass movement like the Satyagraha or Quit India movement. For all the dreams that's not happening in Kashmir even with all the volatility. They are also deeply suspicious of Pakistani interest of the state if they are provided an option to be independent. With time, even INC if it comes in future power Wont go back to 370. They know the pains it had caused. A decade or two down the line, if peace returns through more jobs and revenue as.promised today this issue can be forgotten.

At the same time, Hindutvaadis also need to define their Hindutvaaism. Right now RW are just shouting at the top of their breath in victory. Like how an victorious army loots for sometime before order. It seems Hindutva is going to be around in our politics for sometime. We need to reassure our minorities, prepare them for soft Hindutva even by parties they support and peace in this great country.

 

[El Sidd]

Daily? Beyond wrong!.

Iran has far more success in the region than any of it's neighbors. Why don't you make observations betwene 1980-2020 and realize what hard power means. The restraint Iran has is more important than direct conflict, especially how attacks are not very common.

Will Iran try and destabilize Pakistan as well?

Israel and America are just a boogeyman for Iran to play internal politics with.

And no we do not want to emulate people who shoot down civilian aircraft

 

[Aspen]

Furthermore, Pakistan must now strictly look at the indian occupation as a military problem requiring a military solution. For many years, diplomacy took a front seat. It hasnt worked.

Iranian model is relevant in some aspects. Iran doesnt have allies (Russia is not a staunch ally that will send its soldiers to help iran).

The regime in iran has created its own allies. Various groups being funded and armed by once source and its leadership basically selected by Iran.

Small powers operate as a nexus of allies - iran created its own - Pakistan must do the same.

Summary my two cents.

Doctrine- Combination of Deterrence by allied nexus and offense by attrition ( Like iranian model)
Strategy -Land warfare - More manpower and more mosaic defense layers ( No huge corps but smaller corps spread out) and Declared conventional Tactical Ballistic and cruise missile strike commands.

Air warfare - More Anti Air systems rather than jets.
Naval warfare - Again mosaic defence smaller missile ships spread out commands and more land based missile costal and air defence.

Agree with this assessment

* Mushy U-turn on Kashmir policy caused Pakistani stance to lose credibility and international community to lose faith in Pakistani stance.

* Pakistani ever changing policy from dispute to issue an than MFN showed lack of resolve on Pakistani end.

* Pakistan failure to control spread of terrorism inside it’s own territory, almost getting consumed by the WoT, while Indian economic improvements in the same period, caused Subcontinent And therefore Kashmir equation To change.

* Pakistan handling of ME crisis caused GCC to back away form Kashmir cause. (You scratch my back, I scratch yours). Umma chumma can only go so far.

* International community isn’t an honest broker. Every country has it’s own biases and businesses.

Now what can be done :

Iran don’t have any border with Israel, much less any real military capability to project. What Pakistan need is Bangladesh model and to some extent Crimea.

- Gather Kashmir Leadership, Azad and occupied.

- Setup a political consensus on freedom struggle.

- Turn Kashmir into a hellhole for occupying forces. Suck as many IA formation as possible. LOC will get real hot. Don’t expect Indian to just handover Kashmir like a civilized nation.

- Use UN resolution to justify it’s actions. Pakistan gotta be robust with international community and few friends it got.



- Expect massive human right violations by Indian in occupied Kashmir . So this can’t be allowed to turn into a massacre. Be ready for a war even at the start of this operation. Pakistan gotta act fast. From political to Armed Struggling and if Indian crack down with million plus troops in the valley, just use MLRS and other tools to keep lighting up their HQs and ammo dumps. This may lead to possibly war.

- If intel suggested war is imminent, strike Preemptively and strike hard. Be ready for WCS and Polish what ever Nasr, Nuke you got.

Remember Bangladesh model. Suck em in. Train, arm local population to keep as many of them engaged as possible. Follow throw is either limited Direct military interventions or full scale war depending upon enemy response.

This is the only realistic solution out there for Kashmir. Pakistani gotta grow a pair and stop expecting unarmed Kashmiri to fight of nation of billion plus. Kashmiris tried in 90s. They were killed, tortured and there women were raped while Pakistani politicians were busy raping Pakistani economy.

Most important requirement for any of this to happen is strong leadership with courage that doesn’t fear anyone or anything.

The day Pakistan stops truly stopping appeasing India...shall be the Real First Day of PakIndependence...from there OurPakNationhood can take shape....

India doesn't want peace.

India didn't want peace.

India will never want peace. Simple!

Time for Core Decision!

This TrenchWarfare on CeaseFireLine must end now.... Indians are as brave as we make them out to be...

Time for Core Decision!

The sooner people realize this the better

From military perspective this is the most important point. Have been saying since 8 years - GB needs a full corps size formation especially recruited from GB.

But we are leaving the most important point. Afghanistan. Pakistan needs its own version of hizbullah or iraqi militias in Afghanistan. Iran uses them as force multipliers, stabilizers, and as a Damocles sword for the enemy.
Afghanistan is the single biggest threat facing Pakistan right now and saps Pakistan's already limited resources.

India is no israel and the anglo saxon countries dont feel the same way about india than they do about israel. hence maintaining a militia in afghanistan beefing up Pakistan ranks during war and a posing a threat to india in a sub-conventional context will keep the threat alive.

Pakistan's strategic doctrine must change. More conventional military muscle is needed and automatically the world will be serious again about kashmir.

More conventional power is needed to some extent.

However, the number 1 rule of war is to never fight on the enemy’s terms, make the enemy fight on your terms.

India has a conventional numerical advantage barring any major Pakistani initiative to change the equation. However, Iran is the best example of how to employ asymmetric warfare against your enemy to level the playing field. Pakistan can win an asymmetric war against India so Pakistan must force India into an asymmetric war so India fights on Pakistan’s terms. Conventional capabilities can create a hybrid war where one can leverage both conventional and unconventional methods for maximum effect. Advantage of asymmetric doctrine is that smaller countries can be equal to or better than more powerful countries in an asymmetric war. So the playing field is leveled and India will not have an advantage being the bigger country while enabling Pakistan to inflict disproportionate damage on India relative to its size. Good example of that would be using conventional aircraft to carry out airstrikes while leveraging asymmetric capabilities like cyber warfare to simultaneously cripple the enemy’s communication and response. Missiles and proxies are also key to an asymmetric doctrine because they allow smaller countries to level the playing field against a larger enemy. A large arsenal of precision missiles act as force multipliers because they allow the enemy to target enemy airbases before they can be used to retaliate, severely delaying or complicating the enemy response. Proxies are a good method of weakening the enemy gradually or suddenly based on whatever the situation necessitates. The flexibility, adaptability, and plausible deniability of proxies make them ideal as they can manipulate change rapidly in a fluid and asymmetric environment.

What Pakistan really needs is a dual military system like Iran. Iran has Artesh and Sepah as conventional and asymmetric militaries that are run completely separate. A Pakistani Quds Force like organization and a cyber unit would go a long way in improving Pakistan’s asymmetric capabilities.

Pakistan is self sufficient in food production and other major imports are through China. Iran is next for oil imports. So yes pakistan can sustain the blow easily. The only thing is that Pakistani leaders cannot runaway in the west where their black money is stashed.

As for nuclear blackmail, it won't work. Pakistani thinking is crystal clear that in case pakistan goes down it will make sure it take India down. In case of nuclear war between Pakistan and India, Pakistan maybe no more,it will not exist but India situation will be of a man without arms and legs and teeths. That would be new India, a nuclear wasteland with people being born with defects for next 2 centuries or even more. There will still be 57 other Muslim countries but India...no more swamies.

Your point about black money is interesting. I never thought about that. No wonder our political leadership is so afraid to challenge others if they are vulnerable to foreign extortion.

Don't follow iranian model. India is not israel , it would be a huge compliment to india if we compare it to strong and modern state of israel.

Its the opposite actually in south asia. Of what you suggest. India is a destabalizing and jegative force in south asia. Pakistan is more than capable of keeping balance with india. If one day pakistaniz decided enough is enough they could with hardship ofcourse balakanize india espeically its north and western parts.

We should keep our military up to speed thats all. India is unstable country and not very natural union wait for the iron to be red hot and a single blow will break it into halves.

Just keep gathering strength with advantages such as hypersonic weapons , hydrogen bombs , non detectable high dage dealing weapons.

Make cost of war super heavy for pesky indian scum.

Pakistan should figure out a way to do high altitude reconnaissance over India. China is likely already doing reconnaissance over India with hypersonic drones, I wonder how much of that is shared with Pakistan. Also EMP weapons are the next nukes, with the ability to electromagnetically cripple cities without the physical destruction associated with a nuke, meaning that you can actually use them. Pakistan should invest in EMP's for its asymmetric doctrine.

 

[Foxtrot Delta]

Agree with this assessment



Most important requirement for any of this to happen is strong leadership with courage that doesn’t fear anyone or anything.



The sooner people realize this the better



More conventional power is needed to some extent.

However, the number 1 rule of war is to never fight on the enemy’s terms, make the enemy fight on your terms.

India has a conventional numerical advantage barring any major Pakistani initiative to change the equation. However, Iran is the best example of how to employ asymmetric warfare against your enemy to level the playing field. Pakistan can win an asymmetric war against India so Pakistan must force India into an asymmetric war so India fights on Pakistan’s terms. Conventional capabilities can create a hybrid war where one can leverage both conventional and unconventional methods for maximum effect. Advantage of asymmetric doctrine is that smaller countries can be equal to or better than more powerful countries in an asymmetric war. So the playing field is leveled and India will not have an advantage being the bigger country while enabling Pakistan to inflict disproportionate damage on India relative to its size. Good example of that would be using conventional aircraft to carry out airstrikes while leveraging asymmetric capabilities like cyber warfare to simultaneously cripple the enemy’s communication and response. Missiles and proxies are also key to an asymmetric doctrine because they allow smaller countries to level the playing field against a larger enemy. A large arsenal of precision missiles act as force multipliers because they allow the enemy to target enemy airbases before they can be used to retaliate, severely delaying or complicating the enemy response. Proxies are a good method of weakening the enemy gradually or suddenly based on whatever the situation necessitates. The flexibility, adaptability, and plausible deniability of proxies make them ideal as they can manipulate change rapidly in a fluid and asymmetric environment.

What Pakistan really needs is a dual military system like Iran. Iran has Artesh and Sepah as conventional and asymmetric militaries that are run completely separate. A Pakistani Quds Force like organization and a cyber unit would go a long way in improving Pakistan’s asymmetric capabilities.



Your point about black money is interesting. I never thought about that. No wonder our political leadership is so afraid to challenge others if they are vulnerable to foreign extortion.



Pakistan should figure out a way to do high altitude reconnaissance over India. China is likely already doing reconnaissance over India with hypersonic drones, I wonder how much of that is shared with Pakistan. Also EMP weapons are the next nukes, with the ability to electromagnetically cripple cities without the physical destruction associated with a nuke, meaning that you can actually use them. Pakistan should invest in EMP's for its asymmetric doctrine.

What do you think Pakistani , turkish , malaysian , chinese chinese and ukranian settalites do over india? Pakistan strategic command has eyes over nasty india for a while now. They have eyes on is too thats tha all that underground facilities and movements take place.

 

[loanranger]

Pakistan should invest in EMP's for its asymmetric doctrine.

Yes please. If anyones listening. Take note!

 

[Lincoln]

1. Using another country's territory is not a good thing, they become the victims.
2. If you're going to use proxies, declare it.

 

[nahtanbob]

From military perspective this is the most important point. Have been saying since 8 years - GB needs a full corps size formation especially recruited from GB.

But we are leaving the most important point. Afghanistan. Pakistan needs its own version of hizbullah or iraqi militias in Afghanistan. Iran uses them as force multipliers, stabilizers, and as a Damocles sword for the enemy.
Afghanistan is the single biggest threat facing Pakistan right now and saps Pakistan's already limited resources.

India is no israel and the anglo saxon countries dont feel the same way about india than they do about israel. hence maintaining a militia in afghanistan beefing up Pakistan ranks during war and a posing a threat to india in a sub-conventional context will keep the threat alive.

Pakistan's strategic doctrine must change. More conventional military muscle is needed and automatically the world will be serious again about kashmir.

How do you build conventional muscle against somebody 5-10 times larger than you ?

What Pakistan really needs is a dual military system like Iran. Iran has Artesh and Sepah as conventional and asymmetric militaries that are run completely separate. A Pakistani Quds Force like organization and a cyber unit would go a long way in improving Pakistan’s asymmetric capabilities.

Iran's proxy tactics work against smaller weaker disunited neighbors - Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen
For that matter Iran does not try any of its proxy tactics with Pakistan.
If India was west or east of Iran would Iran's tactics work ?

 

[Kaniska]

Lots of holes. Even if the article is taken at face value, Israel is surrounded by Muslim countries, few of whom are unstable. Who are responsible for its state is a different argument. But Iran let's say, took advantage. But what have they done to Israel rather than rocket attacks through their proxies? Israel is eating them day and night by attacking targets in Syria and Lebanon. Israel rightfully isn't invading those regions.

Now take India or Kashmir for example. It's not surrounded by Muslim nations who do not share the enthusiasm for Jihad.

Iran is under hard sanctions and is using her oil money to fund wars. Do Pakistan has oil or any resource money to fund unlimited proxy wars in India and risks sanctions in the process? Even Russia and China can't supply weapons to Iran now due to arms embargoes. If that's the future Pakistan wants, their wish.

Even if Pakistani part of Kashmir is given autonomy to raise their own corps and do what they want, remember India can also do the same. Infact we can attack more boldly and claim no Pakistani soldiers were killed and it's only Kashmiri soldiers, even though PAF may provide official aircover if that's the plan.

For any plan to work, you need to have people on your side. A mass movement like the Satyagraha or Quit India movement. For all the dreams that's not happening in Kashmir even with all the volatility. They are also deeply suspicious of Pakistani interest of the state if they are provided an option to be independent. With time, even INC if it comes in future power Wont go back to 370. They know the pains it had caused. A decade or two down the line, if peace returns through more jobs and revenue as.promised today this issue can be forgotten.

At the same time, Hindutvaadis also need to define their Hindutvaaism. Right now RW are just shouting at the top of their breath in victory. Like how an victorious army loots for sometime before order. It seems Hindutva is going to be around in our politics for sometime. We need to reassure our minorities, prepare them for soft Hindutva even by parties they support and peace in this great country.

Quite refreshing thoughts...Thumbs up for your brilliant post..

 

[prashantazazel]

Pakistan's current leader is a smart person who wants economic growth, development and prosperity for his people. This is kind of a rarity in subcontinent politics.
But this also means that he will likely not engage India in a significant military conflict for his current term, and likely the next one.
In 8 to 10 years, the goalposts would have moved. More kashmiris would move to the cities, and liberalise.
The military and economic disparity would increase further with time.
Time works in India's favor.