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kalu_miah's new world order, a road map for the future

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Now back to your OP ... I am afraid it would less "childish" had you not affixed dates. And it would be better had you not offered too much detail.

A Huntingtonian/Spenglerian world order or any of its variations has been proposed in one flavour or another even on this veritable forum time and time again. Its eventual permutations are beyond the wisdom of men. Don't try to be a "secular prophet" as this is my friendly advice.

Personally I am dead against an Ultimate World Government. There would then be no escape from tyranny, unless, of course space travel becomes a real option. Even then one would just be "escaping to a colony" ...

Now some form of world governance, if not "government" is clearly already upon us.

What can I do about it? Resistance in a "secular", worldly sense is clearly futile, and one might even say "counter-productive". But it's impossible to desist ...

Being a "secular prophet" is not my intent. I am trying to construct a model using some obscure theory/hypothesis in Historical Sociology and use this model to predict the future. If the model is correct, then a majority of things I predict here using these few theory may become reality, but if the model is incorrect, then it will be back to the drawing board.

World government sounds stifling, but it may not be, depending on the model of the govt. The future model and design of govt. will be very different than what we see today and I believe there will be a lot more modeling and quantitative analysis done in the fastest super computers and perhaps using artificial intelligence as well, much more than what we use in governance today. Planetary management is I think what is needed rather than country or even management of regional unions, which will continue to be inefficient and wasteful for humanity.

I have put this road map considering the best data I have on the history of these different regions, the things they have in common, like language, ethnicity, culture, religion etc. The reason I made these union of states to be of certain size is to maintain balance between different poles of the new multi-polar world, as much as possible, considering what we have as the initial condition and constraints. Of course it is just an idea and suggestion from one man based on a certain model. But more than the details of the process, the method I believe is also important, because without a proper scientific method, we will not be able to go far. I wish we had more people who are professionals in Social Science and specialized on Historical Sociology, with whom we could have meaningful and professional discussions, because I myself is no professional in those fields. I am just an amateur expressing my views from my personal experience.

India forming an union with the rest of the countries in south asia is fine as long as BD and Pak are NOT included in that.

We are better off without them.

That is exactly what I suggested in OP.
 
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India forming an union with the rest of the countries in south asia is fine as long as BD and Pak are NOT included in that.

We are better off without them.

Don't judge Bangladeshis based on PDF. They are generally a progressive lot.
 
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I think countries will not go into Unions, unless they are ready. So community of nations is the first step, just like it has happened with EU. Some parts of many countries want separation, but they will be part of other bigger Unions of countries, just like former Yugoslavia has broken to many parts, but they are all becoming part of EU. Places like Xinjiang, Tibet, Kashmir and North East India, I believe are pretty much lost causes for complete separation, for the foreseeable future. All we can hope for is maintain, regain and increase further autonomy of these regions and ensure the rights for indigenous minority living there, putting world pressure on the concerned large states.

In a future that will be dominated by large states, no small country, I believe, will afford to remain isolated and without its own team, even at the expense of loosing some level of sovereignty. When countries in a community are developed to a certain extent, they may not need to migrate to other places because of economic reasons, so without migration, there is no threat to culture and social harmony.

Bangladesh is in SAARC group, but this group has no future, other than economic relationship. As you may know, Bangladesh was the Eastern part of Pakistan before 1971 and became separate in 1971. The original reason why Bangladesh land mass became a separate country from India in 1947 still exist. There is a trust deficit between majority Hindu India and majority Muslim Bangladesh. From knowing India well, we understand that India's Hindu nationalists are a threat for Islam and Muslim people anywhere in the world, including Bangladesh. It is because, some in India have not been able to come to terms with the fact that Islam has spread in the subcontinent and has brought great demographic change in the region. Many Indian websites openly call for attacking former parts of British India, such as Pakistan and Bangladesh and convert the population in these regions back to Hindu. Indian Muslims live under discrimination and in most big cities Hindu's do not even accept them as tenants or buyers of property in most of part of the town or city. So Muslims are forced to live in Ghettoized small restricted areas. But these are just the tip of the iceberg. There is a particular type of Hindu nationalist that consider Islam and Muslims as existential threats. Like Neocons who spread the canard that Muslims want to engage in Jihad and take over the whole world in a conquest and make it Muslim, and thus establish a world wide Khilafat, this brand of Hindu nationalists believe in this same wild theory with a passion, and use it to dehumanize Muslims, and to justify any acts of current and future aggression against Muslims, including total annihilation or at least brutal subjugation and genocide. After the 9/11 incident, this same tactic was used in the US to start the GWOT and the result continues today. They currently use this same theory to justify putting dams on all of the common international rivers that run from India to Bangladesh and end in Bay of Bengal and divert water as and when needed. Farakka Barrage has caused desertification and increased salinity in large parts of Bangladesh. Bangladesh politics is also controlled by India using its agent political party called Awami League. Also, they spread baseless rumors that Bangladeshi Muslims have migrated in large numbers, in order for them to create a case to take away citizenship of Bengali Muslims of India in the future. For the long term, Indian Hindu nationalists want their "civlization space" back from Muslims and also eliminate Islam from the face of the earth, so it no longer remains a threat for them. On this issue they find willing fellow traveler with Zionist Islamophobes, which is the main basis of close relationship between these two states, India and Israel, although on Iran issue, this relationship has frayed of late.

The solution for Bangladesh is to reach out towards ASEAN, build roads and railways through Myanmar and make ASEAN a success and if Korea and Japan can get more involved in ASEAN, that will be another boost for all parties and nations involved. There is a section of people in Bangladesh, who think that it is possible to be in the Chinese camp and counter this multi-level threat from the large neighbor state of India (who we have border with on all 3 sides if you look at our map) which is not just another neutral neighbor for us. I am not one of these people. I believe in more increased economic relations with both India (even giving them transit, if they agree to deal with us fairly on water management and other issues) as well as China, once land routes via Myanmar is a reality. But for the foreseeable future, I personally cannot see Bangladesh in any kind of Union or community of nations with India. I think most Bangladeshi's would rather become a part of expanded ASEAN for mutual security and development to protect against the threats from neighboring large states, which in our case is India, but for most ASEAN states as well as Japan and Korea, happens to be China.

Honestly, I know about religion very little. In my country, more than 80% non-religious people, although they sometimes go to pagodas ceremony.
I don't know what is the problem between Bangladesh and India. But both countries are the friend of Vietnam. And I hope the relationship between the two countries will become better.
In my opinion, the cooperation between Bangladesh and India is also an opportunity for the development of both countries.
If you look on this forum, you will imagine that Vietnam and China are now the implacable enemy of each other. However, in real life is not entirely true. The relationship between the governments of Vietnam and China is good now, although controversy exists. In economic and trade cooperation between Vietnam and China are also very vibrant, different from the controversial to the extent of hostility on this forum.
Frankly, with standing on a location Vietnamese people, I hope we have good relations with China. However, occasionally I read news the Chinese warship have robbed or killed Vietnamese fishermen, it makes me losing control of my anger. I am concerned that if incidents continue to occur at sea, it will spread awareness hostility between the two ethnic Vietnamese and Chinese.

Southeast Asia is the national group of similar size, so favorable to us in the establishment of ASEAN, and towards the "Asean Community". The Asean countries work together in the spirit of equality, friendship and mutual benefit. We take turns as chairman, no country has hegemonic ambitions. However, the diversity of cultural, political as well as the development level will hinder the region towards closer links. I think it just stop at the level of "ASEAN Community" ...
 
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Glad you agree with my sentiments and thanks for the kind words. If you note my OP, I do support a union between China and Taiwan, which I believe will become like Hong Kong, over time, one country but two systems. But China would have to change quite a bit before that happens.

Han nationalism, Hindutva, Islam, Buddhism - all meme's are powerful and need skillful management, in wrong hands they can be dangerous, but in skilled hand, they can be positive for humanity.

No, we will finally be one country one system because Mainland will be democratic eventually. Taiwan now is the first democracy in Chinese society, then Hk, then Macau, then Mainland.
 
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Keep trolling, Chicom puppets.
I bet Chicoms will get kicked out of their stolen lands including Greater Tibet (including Tibet, Ch'ing-hai, Southern Kansu, West Szechuan and Northwest Yunan) from Tibetans, East Turkistan from Uyghurs, Kazakhs & Mongolians, Southern Mongolia from Mongolians, Ningsia from Hui people, former Manchukuo area (ie Kirin, Liaoning and Heilungkiang) from Manchus, Yeonbyeon from Koreans, Yunnan from 8 ethnic groups (ie Dali from Baip people, Dehong from Kachin People, Honghe from Hani people, Chuxiong from Holo people, Nujiang from Lisu people, Sibsongbanna from Thai people, and Wenshan from Chuang & Hmong People), Kwangsi from Chuang people, Hainan from Hlai people, Southern Kweichow from Buyei people, and East Kweichow & Western Hunan from Hmong people.
 
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Keep trolling, Chicom puppets.
I bet Chicoms will get kicked out of their stolen lands including Greater Tibet (including Tibet, Ch'ing-hai, Southern Kansu, West Szechuan and Northwest Yunan) from Tibetans, East Turkistan from Uyghurs, Kazakhs & Mongolians, Southern Mongolia from Mongolians, Ningsia from Hui people, former Manchukuo area (ie Kirin, Liaoning and Heilungkiang) from Manchus, Yeonbyeon from Koreans, Yunnan from 8 ethnic groups (ie Dali from Baip people, Dehong from Kachin People, Honghe from Hani people, Chuxiong from Holo people, Nujiang from Lisu people, Sibsongbanna from Thai people, and Wenshan from Chuang & Hmong People), Kwangsi from Chuang people, Hainan from Hlai people, Southern Kweichow from Buyei people, and East Kweichow & Western Hunan from Hmong people.

Stop here, Viets troll. Taiwanese dont care Hmong and zhuang. You can stop kidding now.
 
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Stop here, Viets troll. Taiwanese dont care Hmong and zhuang. You can stop kidding now.

If he is a Viets, I'm sure he would know that "Guangdong from Bach Viet people (Baiyue people)". But above, he did not mention that thing.
He did mention "Buyei people", is it "Baiyue People"?
 
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Honestly, I know about religion very little. In my country, more than 80% non-religious people, although they sometimes go to pagodas ceremony.
I don't know what is the problem between Bangladesh and India. But both countries are the friend of Vietnam. And I hope the relationship between the two countries will become better.
In my opinion, the cooperation between Bangladesh and India is also an opportunity for the development of both countries.
If you look on this forum, you will imagine that Vietnam and China are now the implacable enemy of each other. However, in real life is not entirely true. The relationship between the governments of Vietnam and China is good now, although controversy exists. In economic and trade cooperation between Vietnam and China are also very vibrant, different from the controversial to the extent of hostility on this forum.
Frankly, with standing on a location Vietnamese people, I hope we have good relations with China. However, occasionally I read news the Chinese warship have robbed or killed Vietnamese fishermen, it makes me losing control of my anger. I am concerned that if incidents continue to occur at sea, it will spread awareness hostility between the two ethnic Vietnamese and Chinese.

Southeast Asia is the national group of similar size, so favorable to us in the establishment of ASEAN, and towards the "Asean Community". The Asean countries work together in the spirit of equality, friendship and mutual benefit. We take turns as chairman, no country has hegemonic ambitions. However, the diversity of cultural, political as well as the development level will hinder the region towards closer links. I think it just stop at the level of "ASEAN Community" ...

I hope to see better relations between Bangladesh and India too, but it will not happen for the foreseeable future. Mainly because, just like Han nationalism in China which will replace the unifying meme at the slow departure of communism, India's majority population have only one thing in common which is Hindu religion. So just like Han nationalism there is Hindu nationalism which is being used to unify the nation and drive out and counter competing meme's like Islam, Christianity, Maoism, communism etc. There are some extreme hardcore among the nationalist that want to take back Bangladesh and Pakistan and reconvert the population back to Hindu, since they consider that Muslims have invaded and stolen their people and land.

Now, as I said many times in this forum, I do support good relations and opening up business, roads, transit etc., which will help both Bangladesh and India. But while we do this, we will keep fighting about fair share of water in our common rivers and many other issues like that. For security, we will not trust India for the foreseeable future, because of not our own hatred for Hindu India, which is one of their propaganda line, but because of their hatred for Islam and Muslims, coupled with the fact that they are a much bigger state and love to throw their weight around, whenever they get the opportunity, which is natural with all large and powerful (relatively speaking) states.

ASEAN 10, Japan, South Korea (eventually North as well) and Bangladesh, hopefully will unite out of the spirit that together we can solve our mutual problems and come to each others side, when we need help. After all what is humanity for if we do not help each other. But talking about community or Union or definitive steps are of course pre-mature. Ground work has to be done, decades will go by, people will learn and educate themselves, open their eyes. More democracies will take root in this region, and then people themselves will take the right decision about their future. I am just making some theoretical projections, which may or may not become reality.

As for Vietnam, and many other states in the group/community, Buddhism is an excellent meme to seek common ground on. So I support promotion of Buddhism in this region, as when atheist communism dies down, it leaves a vacuum, which has to be filled some how.
 
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I hope to see better relations between Bangladesh and India too, but it will not happen for the foreseeable future. Mainly because, just like Han nationalism in China which will replace the unifying meme at the slow departure of communism, India's majority population have only one thing in common which is Hindu religion. So just like Han nationalism there is Hindu nationalism which is being used to unify the nation and drive out and counter competing meme's like Islam, Christianity, Maoism, communism etc. There are some extreme hardcore among the nationalist that want to take back Bangladesh and Pakistan and reconvert the population back to Hindu, since they consider that Muslims have invaded and stolen their people and land.

Now, as I said many times in this forum, I do support good relations and opening up business, roads, transit etc., which will help both Bangladesh and India. But while we do this, we will keep fighting about fair share of water in our common rivers and many other issues like that. For security, we will not trust India for the foreseeable future, because of not our own hatred for Hindu India, which is one of their propaganda line, but because of their hatred for Islam and Muslims, coupled with the fact that they are a much bigger state and love to throw their weight around, whenever they get the opportunity, which is natural with all large and powerful (relatively speaking) states.

Have all Bangladeshi been fed the same garbage since their childhood that they keep parroting same line again and again? Indian Muslims are a force by their own accord and achieved much more than their peers in Bangladesh.

Let me reiterate the same line, although cliched but true - Indian Muslims are more literate and earn more and growing at a faster pace than Bangladeshi or Pakistani Muslims.

Nobody wants to take over Bangladesh, it's a country without any natural resource and teaming with people even more poorer than us. And your undying hatred for us doesn't seem to stop the inward migration from BD to India of both Hindu and Muslims. Bangladesh seems to be inhabitable for both communities.
 
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Have all Bangladeshi been fed the same garbage since their childhood that they keep parroting same line again and again? Indian Muslims are a force by their own accord and achieved much more than their peers in Bangladesh.

Let me reiterate the same line, although cliched but true - Indian Muslims are more literate and earn more and growing at a faster pace than Bangladeshi or Pakistani Muslims.

Nobody wants to take over Bangladesh, it's a country without any natural resource and teaming with people even more poorer than us. And your undying hatred for us doesn't seem to stop the inward migration from BD to India of both Hindu and Muslims. Bangladesh seems to be inhabitable for both communities.

Just proves my point. Let me fill in the blanks, Muslims hate all non-Muslims and want to take over the world and create a world Khilafa.

If Muslims are doing so great in India, why do Kashmiri's want Azadi (independence)? Why is there only 3% in govt. jobs in West Bengal where the Muslim population is 25% or more?
 
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Just proves my point. Let me fill in the blanks, Muslims hate all non-Muslims and want to take over the world and create a world Khilafa.

If Muslims are doing so great in India, why do Kashmiri's want Azadi (independence)? Why is there only 3% in govt. jobs in West Bengal where the Muslim population is 25% or more?

Why Kashmiris want Azadi is a long subject and beyond the realm of this discussion.

I don't give flying eff if Bangladeshis want Khalifat or anything else while exporting their product to Christian Europe and secular USA and importing from atheist China and secular India.

The reason behind Bengali Muslims comprise only 3% of govt jobs in WB is their historical reluctance of getting acquainted with western education. Bengalis Hindus absolutely dominated the govt and administrative jobs before partition despite them being a minority.
 
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Very thoughtful post, young man, very thoughtful.

The same Mao who purportedly wanted to offer Nixon 10 million Chinese women for ... would not hesitate I believe to trade 1000 HongWus for one of you, for the old butcher did know talent when he saw it, even if he treated "talent" rather shabbily after useful service to him expired.

US of A is still better for you, me and a few, where at least one can count on 40 acres and a mule ...

In all seriousness, I must say that I agree with the spirit of your post 120%.

Life is not fair, but the Lord is just. And thankfully He is merciful.

The way forward is definitely for small states to band together. I am all for a stronger ASEAN to counter PRC hegemony in South China Sea. This is not to say that China does not have valid "beef" with a country like Vietnam that has worn jack boots two sizes too big for itself and tends to unsettle its own neighbors such as Thailand and Cambodia. But ASEAN countries would be crazy not to try to speak with a single voice, or better yet, fight with a single fist for their own legitimate space.

For some of us the "red line" would be any attempted Anschluss with Taiwan under armed might. I would rue that day because it would be an act that divides the house against itself like no other, and pit "Han" against "Han" (I am not talking about those in Taiwan) - just as Saddam's march on Kuwait divided Arabs against Arabs. As you surely know - when the Almighty brings down the haughty, whether nations or individuals, He first lets them heap hubris upon their inequities.

The same with "Hindutva". It will only survive on its merit, or falter on the contrary.

Even in purely "evolutionary" terms, fitness has zero correlation with size.

Oh, hubris upon inequities... I know of a country that has plenty of that and does much worse, yet is rewarded richly for it.

You still cannot separate Han and Chinese mentally, shows your age. Han is not necessarily Chinese, Chinese is not necessarily Han. The PRC has responsibility only to PRC citizens: the residents of the provinces, autonomous regions and 2 SARS. If the house was to be divided, it would be 99% on one side, and 1% on the other. The 99% will make the 1% irrelevant and then the rest will move forward.
 
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kalu_miah’s new world order:

Premises:
- Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely, so concentration of power should be avoided
- big states have economies of scale, so playing field is automatically skewed in their favor, in terms of competitive advantage
- big states and powerful countries want the rest of the world to remain under their influence, so they follow a policy of divide and rule
- free and fair trading of goods, free travel (but not migration) will boost prosperity and is in the interest of all countries
- unions of states can be formed only according to democratic free will of the people of concerned states, so by definition, an advanced level of democracy, preferably direct democracy using online/internet remote voting will be essential prerequisite for movement towards these new trans-formative unions
- it is natural that people who have ethnic, linguistic, cultural similarities and/or some common historical past, will seek to join in a union more easily, but it can also be for purely economic and strategic reasons

Plan: create a new collection of small states in regional unions to usher in a new multi-polar world, to protect against harmful influence of large states

current status:

1. China: ancient union of nations, first cobbled together by Han Wu Di, recreated by Yuan Mongol, one written language (spoken becoming standardized as well)
2. India: ancient union of nations, first created by Ashoka or Murya dynasty, recreated by Mughal, but remains multi-lingual
3. EU: European nations first unified by Romans, but now working towards a US of Europe
4. USA (recent union formed after European migration to North America)
5. ASEAN: 10 nations of South East Asia
6. UNASUR: all nations in Middle and South America, Mexico is contemplating to join
7. GCC and Arab League
8. Central Asian Union (5 former soviet stan’s)
9. African Union
10. SAARC

(please google for details)

important points:
- all customs or free trade areas will not end up in the future as a full political union, but some may
- EU, ASEAN, UNASUR, GCC, CEU, AU may become the starting point of new unions that may end up as future political unions, but SAARC is going to remain a free trade group only

Stage 1 (2020-2040):

1. China+Taiwan
2. India+Nepal+Maldives+Bhutan (Sri Lanka may remain a member of SAARC but stay out of full political union with India)
3. EU+Russian speaking countries
4. USA+Canada
5. ASEAN+Japan+Korea (Bangladesh will want to join this group, but may not get entry, unless it can show itself to be worthy)
6. Latin American Union: UNASUR+Mexico
7. expanded GCC to include all non-Maghreb Arab countries
8. Central Asian Union (7 stan’s+Mongolia, if Russia provides land bridge)
9. African Union (Maghreb will remain part of Arab League, but due to economic and geographic reason, form political union with rest of African continent, Nile river usage being the main reason for Egypt)
10. Iran

Stage 2 (2040-2070)

1. China+Taiwan
2. India+Nepal+Maldives+Bhutan (Sri Lanka may remain a member of SAARC but stay out of full political union with India)
3. EU+Russian speaking countries+USA+Canda+Oceania (ANZ)
4. ASEAN+Japan+Korea (Bangladesh will want to join this group, but may not get entry, unless it can show itself to be worthy)
6. Latin American Union: UNASUR+Mexico
7. expanded GCC to include all non-Maghreb Arab countries
8. Central Asian Union (7 stan’s+Mongolia+Turkey+Azerbaijan) (Iran will trade but not join political union)
9. African Union

Stage 3 (2070-2100):

1. China+Taiwan
2. India+Nepal+Maldives+Bhutan+Sri Lanka
3. EU+Russian speaking countries+USA+Canda+Oceania (ANZ)
4. ASEAN+Japan+Korea+Bangladesh
5. Latin American Union
6. expanded GCC to include all non-Maghreb Arab countries + Central Asian Union (7 stan’s+Mongolia+Turkey+Azerbaijan) + Iran
7. African Union

Stage 4 (2100-2200)

1. Global federation, no more countries and borders

Your thoughts please. If necessary, separate threads can be created for study of each region. Please remember that you have heard it here first, it did not come out of any think tank, it came out of the brain of yours truly, after many years of analysis and thought.

Jokes are welcome, as well as serious discussions.

your time line is way to streatched. in a way , its rite, but, you integrate 2 massive wars in this simulation and the predictions will shrink....i am seeing one world goverment by 2050.
 
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What is the relevance of the first premise in your hypothesis?
 
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