kalu_miah's new world order, a road map for the future

[kalu_miah]

Someone asked a question about why Saudi's want to hit on Iran or Syria.

Why is it that Iran and Saudi's have to fight? Is it because of Shia/Sunni? I don't think so. Correct me if I am wrong, but I see Persians meddling in Arab lands and Arab nationalist Baathists (Alawi+Christians 20%) of Syria proudly aligning with Persians. I see nothing wrong with Shia persians helping fellow Shia Arabs, but they should not create instability and sectarian tension. If they are blessed with oil wealth, they should try to create a stable and prosperous middle-east, they cannot do that by just siding with Shia or taking up the populist Palestinian cause. We need real workable solutions, not just big words and posturing for consumption by the illiterate clue-less domestic public consumption:
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-...n-struggle-against-israel-13.html#post2717776

But it goes deeper than that. In the end it always goes back to the superpowers, who is backing who and in whose camp do we belong. Because of its anti-US stance and Western sanctions, Iran has been pushed to the Chinese and Russian camp, although China is the real puppet master, while Chinese polit-buro probably bought up the entire Putin regime. So Iran is the Islamic front of China (Russia is another Chinese recruit). So with Iran and its Shia affiliates like Assad regime and Hezbollah, China is playing its Mid-east game. Essentially it is a proxy war between USA/West and China. Saudi's are of course under US protection, but in Syria, in my opinion, it has a righteous cause. Taking down Assad is as justified or even more than taking down Qadhafi in Libya, to stop the brutal massacre of innocent civilians, women and children. Note that India, the land of Islamophobes, allied with Qadhafi the butcher, and was very unhappy when he went down. They would support Assad too, but they learned their lesson well in Libya. So this time they did not make the same mistake again, "Taqiya" (deception) anyone?

The only way I see that this situation will resolve is when the Mullah regime finally goes down in Iran and Iran can then be brought back to the Western camp, from its current dependence on China, India and Russia. Saudi's or any other Arab regime that falls, the population will remain in Western camp. In my calculation they will not go over to China or India, despite temporary hiccups and detours.

Sooner than later, the US/West needs to come up with a comprehensive strategic plan to counter China and India in all these spaces and create indigenous strength in these regions, so they can increasingly bear the weight of responsibility of their own security. And we the Muslim nations need to do our part to gain our individual and collective strengths as well, by stopping the fighting, understanding where we are going strategically and then take actions everyday, so we are moving in the correct direction and not going backwards.

 

[Farhad Hassan]

I leave the thread quietly. The idea is lacking in something though I can't say what, imho.

 

[kalu_miah]

To beat Soviet Union, USA shook hands with China in 1971. Pakistan had a role in this break-through introduction and Kissinger under Nixon was an important player in it. At the last stages of cold war when Soviets invaded Afghanistan, Pakistan played a key role to defeat the Soviets in Afghanistan and China did not interfere in this conflict. But after the fall of Soviet Union, the real economic engagement with China started taking place on the part of the West from the early nineties and it was a field day for the wall street boys who made billions, hollowing out the US manufacturing base and middle class.

The economic engagement with China continues, while we find today a rising belligerent China, confident of its own version of manifest destiny.

India on the other hand did not enjoy this level of engagement with the US/West, for a long time, because it was closer to the cold war compeitor, Soviet Union and an enemy to cold war ally Pakistan.

After the end of cold war, since the start of 21st century, India liberalized its economy and also started benefiting from engagement with the US led global economic system. So it too has seen a rise of its economy and GDP from this engagement.

So essentially China's rise has been at least 20 year old, whereas India's rise is about 10 year old and the rate of rise in China, fueled by manufacturing, has so far been higher, in the range of 10-11% per year growth of GDP, whereas for India it was more like 7-8%.

With their new found economic and material power both China and India started to go out in the world, forging ties with different nations, extending market share for their products, securing resources in far off continents. In a way these movements put them both at loggerheads with the US/West, as they were the main beneficiaries of the earlier global economic system, while China and increasingly India, seem to threaten that position of monopoly and supremacy.

In the diplomatic and strategic arena, China has made some inroads. It has taken a resurgent Russia (under ex-KGB led regime) under its wing and expanded its influece (markets, roads and pipe lines) in former soviet Central Asian countries. It has also taken Iran under its wings, taking advantage of the fact that Iran is essentially a pariah nation, since the fall of Shah. Through Iran and working with Iran, it has extended its reach in Mid-east and we see the effect of this extension of power in protecting the Assad regime, where Russia and China are both using veto in UN security council. And of course, Pakistan has been a long time strategic ally of China since 1950's and the bond is getting even stronger.

Since China has found this Shia road to power in the mid-east, the Sunni regime in Saudi Arabia is feeling threatened and in addition to their US protection, they are hedging their bets with getting close to India, which will have implication for Saudi-Pakistan relations, as well as Saudi-Bangladesh relations. I am not sure about Pakistan, but Saudi Arabia has already stopped hiring Bangladeshi migrant labor and while hiring from India continues, not sure about what exactly the hiring situation is, with regards to Pakistan.

As I presented a hypothesis in this thread, that large states like China and India are destabilizing for the current global system. We are already seeing its effects. China's assertion in East sea (sea of Japan) and paracel islands are demonstration of this destabilization. India's destabilization is reflected in the fact that it is also forging ties with Iran to access Afghanistan and access Central Asia through that route, while trying to fragment Pakistan, with its covert support for Baloch rebels as well as its alliance with Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, who control north and western part of Afghanistan. India is also getting more assertive in its effort to control and dictate the politics of Bangladesh, with its surrogate Awami League. In addition India is using the big lie propaganda principle to establish the myth of Bangladeshi migrants to further harass Bengali Muslim populations in India.

The changes in these two large states go hand in hand with their economic rise and the way it strengthens the aggressive and unifying meme's in these two states which are:

- Han ethnic nationalism
- Hindu ethno-religious nationalism

Just like pre-war Germany and its rise of Nazism, these two ideologies, which will be used to further solidify the hold of the ruling elite and unify the masses, there are growing strands of extremist and aggressive part of these forces that are identifying scapegoats and dehumanizing them, in way blaming the victims, so they can be harrassed or bludgeoned to submission or eliminated in a slow but determined manner. We may recall the dream of the thousand year Reich in this regard.

I believe, the US/West did a disservice to their own long term interest when they engaged with China and allowed it to rise to the level it has, and the same goes for India.

For future stability of the world system, it is very important that US/West strategists understand these phenomenon well and their future implications, and this is for their own sake as well.

What is needed is a gradual disengagement from these two large states and a refocus and increasing engagement with the smaller states and the unions that could be created out of them, as I mentioned in the OP. This will be also be a way to ensure more stable systems, less terrorism and less economic migrants coming from Latin America to the US or Africa to EU.

Now let's consider what will happen if, according to Kissinger's new brilliant idea, India is the new China for US/West, to contain China.

The fall outs for this will be immense. Already there is some movement in this direction, Japan has been known to follow this engagement policy with India as well, either in consultation with the US or independently (which I doubt).

Once US and Japan makes a definite decision to engage India and make it the new China, it will mean that Muslim countries like Bangladesh, Indonesia and Malaysia will make an attempt to move out from the ambivalent or semi-US/West-supporter category and move towards the Chinese camp. It will also ensure that SCO based grouping of China and former Soviet countries of Russia and Central Asia is further solidified. It will essentially ensure a Muslim-Sino-Russian alliance, where the odd man out would be GCC with US and Indian support. Then it will be a repitition of the cold war and an eventual defeat of one side. I am not sure which side will win, that will be for people to discuss and speculate, but it will be a titanic struggle. My guess is that eventually, with increasing integration with local economies in the neighbor hood, India will eventually give up the alliance with far-off West and become neutral. This eventuality will essentially mean a catastrophic defeat of US/EU in the long term and the rise of Russia as the new European torch bearer, which will be sweet revenge for the earlier cold war defeat.

For India, the defeat will simply mean, that it will swallow its pride and be a more willing partner of its neighbors in Eurasia. The same thing will be the case with any other countries in this US-India-Japan alliance, which possibly are South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand etc.

My projections could be wrong, but if any of the above has any resemblance to reality, then it means that the US/West and Japan are just stepping into a self defeating path.

 

[Vinod2070]

You do make some interesting comments. Most of your ideas seem rehashed and many seem impractical but that is fine.

Only suggestion, don't use this thread to parade your need for justifying the two nation theory. We can have a dedicated thread for that discussion if needed.

Note that India, the land of Islamophobes

A country where the population of Muslims keeps on rising (even in proportion) and Muslims are reaching the highest levels, the only plural democracy for a thousand miles and more, a land where all sects of Muslims have more freedom than in any (or at least most) Islamic country, one can go on and on.

But then facts never had anything to do with the need.

allied with Qadhafi the butcher, and was very unhappy when he went down.

This is just whining! No Indian cared for that buffoon who claimed at various times that Europe is turning Islamic and other such idiotic things, one who was a pathetic dictator.

We may have dealt with the existing reality of that buffoon ruling that country. We were definitely not "unhappy when he went down".

Of course he has been replaced by even worse thugs.

They would support Assad too, but they learned their lesson well in Libya. So this time they did not make the same mistake again, "Taqiya" (deception) anyone?

Frankly common Indians are not so overly involved in what happens in distant Arab lands.

We have sympathy for civilians getting killed and thousands getting massacred by the sectarian and dictator terrorists. It remains an issue for them to resolve.

If asked, we should do what we can. Else, their problems, for them to solve.

We are not going to be more loyal than the king, "second class Arabs" etc. We have enough of our own issues to worry about to go out finding issues around the world.

 

[Vinod2070]

As I presented a hypothesis in this thread, that large states like China and India are destabilizing for the current global system. We are already seeing its effects. China's assertion in East sea (sea of Japan) and paracel islands are demonstration of this destabilization. India's destabilization is reflected in the fact that it is also forging ties with Iran to access Afghanistan and access Central Asia through that route, while trying to fragment Pakistan, with its covert support for Baloch rebels as well as its alliance with Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, who control north and western part of Afghanistan. India is also getting more assertive in its effort to control and dictate the politics of Bangladesh, with its surrogate Awami League. In addition India is using the big lie propaganda principle to establish the myth of Bangladeshi migrants to further harass Bengali Muslim populations in India.

The changes in these two large states go hand in hand with their economic rise and the way it strengthens the aggressive and unifying meme's in these two states which are:

- Han ethnic nationalism
- Hindu ethno-religious nationalism

Just like pre-war Germany and its rise of Nazism, these two ideologies, which will be used to further solidify the hold of the ruling elite and unify the masses, there are growing strands of extremist and aggressive part of these forces that are identifying scapegoats and dehumanizing them, in way blaming the victims, so they can be harrassed or bludgeoned to submission or eliminated in a slow but determined manner. We may recall the dream of the thousand year Reich in this regard.

I believe, the US/West did a disservice to their own long term interest when they engaged with China and allowed it to rise to the level it has, and the same goes for India.

So you have so much trust in US/WEST? You want them to do what you would prefer?

What if they see things in a different way? What if they see only some countries being pillars of stability in a region boiling with religious extremism and fanaticism?

What if they decide who they share the values of plural tolerant democracies? What if they decide to collaborate with them rather than those who will turn on them the first moment they can?

For future stability of the world system, it is very important that US/West strategists understand these phenomenon well and their future implications, and this is for their own sake as well.

What is needed is a gradual disengagement from these two large states and a refocus and increasing engagement with the smaller states and the unions that could be created out of them, as I mentioned in the OP. This will be also be a way to ensure more stable systems, less terrorism and less economic migrants coming from Latin America to the US or Africa to EU.

The US strategists start thinking where your thinking (and that of most of the world) ends and then some.

Read the "Next 100 years" and you will see some of that in action already.

You will see why Iraq and Afghanistan have happened the way they did. You will see why USA lets some fanboys enjoy the supposed victory of Taliban, having already achieved what it wanted to.

The defeat of the political Islam to the extent where it is no longer a potent threat. It is the Muslim countries that are at the forefront of the fight now with political Islam!

Brilliant masterstroke! Isn't it?

Now let's consider what will happen if, according to Kissinger's new brilliant idea, India is the new China for US/West, to contain China.

The fall outs for this will be immense. Already there is some movement in this direction, Japan has been known to follow this engagement policy with India as well, either in consultation with the US or independently (which I doubt).

Once US and Japan makes a definite decision to engage India and make it the new China, it will mean that Muslim countries like Bangladesh, Indonesia and Malaysia will make an attempt to move out from the ambivalent or semi-US/West-supporter category and move towards the Chinese camp. It will also ensure that SCO based grouping of China and former Soviet countries of Russia and Central Asia is further solidified. It will essentially ensure a Muslim-Sino-Russian alliance, where the odd man out would be GCC with US and Indian support. Then it will be a repitition of the cold war and an eventual defeat of one side. I am not sure which side will win, that will be for people to discuss and speculate, but it will be a titanic struggle. My guess is that eventually, with increasing integration with local economies in the neighbor hood, India will eventually give up the alliance with far-off West and become neutral. This eventuality will essentially mean a catastrophic defeat of US/EU in the long term and the rise of Russia as the new European torch bearer, which will be sweet revenge for the earlier cold war defeat.

For India, the defeat will simply mean, that it will swallow its pride and be a more willing partner of its neighbors in Eurasia. The same thing will be the case with any other countries in this US-India-Japan alliance, which possibly are South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand etc.

My projections could be wrong, but if any of the above has any resemblance to reality, then it means that the US/West and Japan are just stepping into a self defeating path.

You sure your views and needs about the two nation theory have nothing to do with your premises about India?

 

[IbnAlwaled]

wow, Iran is sitting on a racial time bomb.

 

[kalu_miah]

You do make some interesting comments. Most of your ideas seem rehashed and many seem impractical but that is fine.

Only suggestion, don't use this thread to parade your need for justifying the two nation theory. We can have a dedicated thread for that discussion if needed.



A country where the population of Muslims keeps on rising (even in proportion) and Muslims are reaching the highest levels, the only plural democracy for a thousand miles and more, a land where all sects of Muslims have more freedom than in any (or at least most) Islamic country, one can go on and on.

But then facts never had anything to do with the need.



This is just whining! No Indian cared for that buffoon who claimed at various times that Europe is turning Islamic and other such idiotic things, one who was a pathetic dictator.

We may have dealt with the existing reality of that buffoon ruling that country. We were definitely not "unhappy when he went down".

Of course he has been replaced by even worse thugs.



Frankly common Indians are not so overly involved in what happens in distant Arab lands.

We have sympathy for civilians getting killed and thousands getting massacred by the sectarian and dictator terrorists. It remains an issue for them to resolve.

If asked, we should do what we can. Else, their problems, for them to solve.

We are not going to be more loyal than the king, "second class Arabs" etc. We have enough of our own issues to worry about to go out finding issues around the world.

More Taqiya deception to hide the Islamophobic Hindu nationalist India.

 

[kalu_miah]

deleted double post, website having a lot of issues lately.

 

[kalu_miah]

So you have so much trust in US/WEST? You want them to do what you would prefer?

What if they see things in a different way? What if they see only some countries being pillars of stability in a region boiling with religious extremism and fanaticism?

What if they decide who they share the values of plural tolerant democracies? What if they decide to collaborate with them rather than those who will turn on them the first moment they can?

Of course that is India's official line along with their zionist partners: "Muslim terrorist" and "Islamic fundamentalists" and "Shining India" the model of democracy, but everyone has eyes to see, you fool no one with your deception. US/West will do what is in their interest, I write my ideas and point of view and I am entitled to have my opinions, as you are to have yours.

The US strategists start thinking where your thinking (and that of most of the world) ends and then some.

Read the "Next 100 years" and you will see some of that in action already.

You will see why Iraq and Afghanistan have happened the way they did. You will see why USA lets some fanboys enjoy the supposed victory of Taliban, having already achieved what it wanted to.

The defeat of the political Islam to the extent where it is no longer a potent threat. It is the Muslim countries that are at the forefront of the fight now with political Islam!

Brilliant masterstroke! Isn't it?

Ha Ha, that is the funniest comment I have seen so far, the zionist neocons and their likes have destroyed the US, handed the Chinese their rise in a platter, hollowed their manufacturing base and middle class, are giving a India the same opportunity with service industry out sourcing and went on a wild goose chase to run after "terrorist"s in a decade long 10 trillion dollar waste of blood and treasure, and lost world credibility in the process and you are calling it "masterstroke"?

Political Islam and the threat of a Khilafa is the joke that neocon's invented and it has been much discredited. Now it is all about Arab spring. Please take our head out of the sand and wake up, it is not 2001, but 2012.

And please do not mention the paid corporate snooping company called Stratfor of Thomas Friedman fame and the jokes they call their work. That prediction says that Poland will be one of the most important country in the 21st century, enough said, and it mentions nothing about your "shining" mother India.

You sure your views and needs about the two nation theory have nothing to do with your premises about India?

My theory is about human societies, these are general theories and apply to any world situation. They have nothing to do with your "two nation theory" of partition. If you were not Indian, you would probably have the objectivity to understand it, but since you are Indian, I don't expect more than what you accomplished so far.

 

[kalu_miah]

wow, Iran is sitting on a racial time bomb.

Brother IbnAlwaled, Salam. Iran, even though Shia, it is still a Muslim country. I do not support this Shia/Sunni conflict. We should work to resolve the differences, and trying to break apart their country will not help us achieve that. I know they are meddling in Arab country's with pan-Shia ideology, but rest assure, it has nothing much to do with Iranian people. It is this corrupt Mullah regime which is causing all these problems. We cannot hurt a whole brotherly nation because they are ruled by a few scums.

 

[Vinod2070]

More Taqiya deception to hide the Islamophobic Hindu nationalist India.

Frankly you disappoint.

 

[kalu_miah]

All the alliances you see today, presidents and prime ministers visting, signing deals and armies having joint exercise mean jack sh*t. Because at this present time people, the 99% of most countries are clueless about what is in their own their interest. When they are aware and knowledgeable and have a more evolved democracy with media that is controlled by the 99%, then they will start taking steps in the direction that will make their future secure and take them away from the clueless leadership of current 1% elite.

Take for example a new ASEAN+3: 10countries+Japan+Korea+Bangladesh

This group has about 960 million people, the technology, developed manpower, cheap labor, pretty much everything needed to outshine both China or India.

This is just one example. Same thing can be said about Latin American Union, African Union and the others. The idea is quite simple, the little guys need to team up and stand up to the big bullies and thugs. There are no other ways to solve this problem of large bully nations.

 

[Vinod2070]

Of course that is India's official line along with their zionist partners: "Muslim terrorist" and "Islamic fundamentalists"

This is predominantly the Christian West narrative, they being the dominant power at the current stage of history.

Of course you want run away from that reality, trying to find scapegoats. It doesn't work for anyone other than your gullible folks.

and "Shining India" the model of democracy, but everyone has eyes to see, you fool no one with your deception.

A lot of whining and no substance.

US/West will do what is in their interest, I write my ideas and point of view and I am entitled to have my opinions, as you are to have yours.

Agreed.

Ha Ha, that is the funniest comment I have seen so far, the zionist neocons and their likes have destroyed the US, handed the Chinese their rise in a platter, hollowed their manufacturing base and middle class, are giving a India the same opportunity with service industry out sourcing

You are giving too much credit to "zionist neocons" (which is an absurdity in itself) and too less to the hardworking and innovative folks in China and India.

But that is only to be expected I guess, coming from the worldview you represent.

and went on a wild goose chase to run after "terrorist"s in a decade long 10 trillion dollar waste of blood and treasure, and lost world credibility in the process and you are calling it "masterstroke"?

There was a bigger loss of credibility after Vietnam, USA still remained the Superpower. Frankly they have achieved their strategic goals, everything else is an eyewash.

Political Islam and the threat of a Khilafa is the joke that neocon's invented and it has been much discredited. Now it is all about Arab spring. Please take our head out of the sand and wake up, it is not 2001, but 2012.

OK, if you say. You need to convince not me but your own side.

And please do not mention the paid corporate snooping company called Stratfor of Thomas Friedman fame and the jokes they call their work. That prediction says that Poland will be one of the most important country in the 21st century, enough said, and it mentions nothing about your "shining" mother India.

I have always noticed that "Shining India" causes a lot of pain to some disgruntled folks from outside India for some mysterious reasons. In India no one uses it at all. It was prematurely used by one politician and cost the party an election a decade back. That's about it.

My theory is about human societies, these are general theories and apply to any world situation. They have nothing to do with your "two nation theory" of partition. If you were not Indian, you would probably have the objectivity to understand it, but since you are Indian, I don't expect more than what you accomplished so far.

Your obsession about India and its supposed Islamophobia proves you are incapable of being objective.

I hope that changes in the coming posts.

 

[Vinod2070]

All the alliances you see today, presidents and prime ministers visting, signing deals and armies having joint exercise mean jack sh*t. Because at this present time people, the 99% of most countries are clueless about what is in their own their interest. When they are aware and knowledgeable and have a more evolved democracy with media that is controlled by the 99%, then they will start taking steps in the direction that will make their future secure and take them away from the clueless leadership of current 1% elite.

Take for example a new ASEAN+3: 10countries+Japan+Korea+Bangladesh

This group has about 960 million people, the technology, developed manpower, cheap labor, pretty much everything needed to outshine both China or India.

This is just one example. Same thing can be said about Latin American Union, African Union and the others. The idea is quite simple, the little guys need to team up and stand up to the big bullies and thugs. There are no other ways to solve this problem of large bully nations.

Japan and Korea and Asean, all have much to gain by co-operating with everyone, especially the bigger economies.

All of them are investing and trading heavily with India and China. They know that is the future.

Everyone gains when these large countries with great ancient and proud civilizations regain the glories of their past. They will provide the balance that the world so desperately needs from the excesses of any one school of thought.

And these smaller countries will gain tremendously by trading and co-operating with these great countries.

 

[kalu_miah]

Everyone already cooperates in global trade and it will only increase with time, which I have no problem with, but they will also make military alliances and political unions out of their popular democratic will, to make sure that the big bully states do not abuse and harass their neighbors and other smaller states world wide, because of the aggressive nationalism that is taking shape in these two large states, which are a threat for the world, just like Nazism was in prewar Germany. Already dehumanization of minorities have started in both states to turn them into future scape-goats.