CriticalThought
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My analysis is as follows, but note of caution: there are too many variables so take this with a grain of salt
It makes logical sense that the design of Block 3 will not be finalized until the first Rafale has landed in India and intelligence becomes available on the capabilities. I do expect prototypes to fly before then.
Once intel is available, the design will be frozen to provide max advantage possible against Indian capabilities. After that, the question of filling the gap will come. Depending on cost/benefit analysis, a third fighter may be procured, or status quo maintained.
Azm is a 5th gen project, per ACM Sohail Aman. This is an authentic source, but I do have reservations about jumping straight into a 5th gen design without any previous, independent, and successful effort. It simply doesn't make any sense, except if some Pakistani engineers have been receiving training in some corner of China.
I really cannot say what Azm will look like, but it makes sense to utilize what we have today as a base, and build on top of it. Putting LO features on Thunder, especially diamond nose, high sweep angle tail etc makes sense from the point of gaining valuable experience. The design should be taken through a few test and validation loops so our designers start to get a sense for the niceties of stealth design. This would be the logical path if indigenous capability is sought. And the thing is, PAC has been manufacturing for a decade now. That is a long time for some of the above to have been accomplished already. It is not necessary that things are put into motion only after the announcement.
In any case, there is also the chance of a bigger Chinese - and even Turkish! - input. Personally, I do not like this because I want PAC to develop indigenous capability.
In terms of requirements, it is clear that India is targeting 5th gen. Whether in the form of Russian or American fighter, or even a mixture of both, they have set their sights. It is natural that PAF will be looking for the counter.
It is difficult to ascertain PAF's 5th gen philosophy. Currently, there are a few competing ones in the world: Russians favoring manoeuverability and speed, Americans having a mix of stealth and performance, and the Chinese in the process of formulating their philosopgy but it looks like they are leaning towards the American option.
My ideal is to have both in inventory: pure performance (Su-57) and stealth + performance (F-22) Of course that is just fantasy.
Here are my controversial views. Stealth is 90s technology. As sensors keep getting better, stealth will be beaten. The future is meta materials which are still being researched. Performance and agility can be used to break radar locks - move so randomly that radar cannot track you. Beat the opponent's BVR advantage and close the gap to WVR where speed and agility rule. Breaking the BVR advantage can and will also involve EW. Passive radars and AEWACs will be extremely crucial.
That's my two cents. I am looking to see what the PAF commanders think.
It makes logical sense that the design of Block 3 will not be finalized until the first Rafale has landed in India and intelligence becomes available on the capabilities. I do expect prototypes to fly before then.
Once intel is available, the design will be frozen to provide max advantage possible against Indian capabilities. After that, the question of filling the gap will come. Depending on cost/benefit analysis, a third fighter may be procured, or status quo maintained.
Azm is a 5th gen project, per ACM Sohail Aman. This is an authentic source, but I do have reservations about jumping straight into a 5th gen design without any previous, independent, and successful effort. It simply doesn't make any sense, except if some Pakistani engineers have been receiving training in some corner of China.
I really cannot say what Azm will look like, but it makes sense to utilize what we have today as a base, and build on top of it. Putting LO features on Thunder, especially diamond nose, high sweep angle tail etc makes sense from the point of gaining valuable experience. The design should be taken through a few test and validation loops so our designers start to get a sense for the niceties of stealth design. This would be the logical path if indigenous capability is sought. And the thing is, PAC has been manufacturing for a decade now. That is a long time for some of the above to have been accomplished already. It is not necessary that things are put into motion only after the announcement.
In any case, there is also the chance of a bigger Chinese - and even Turkish! - input. Personally, I do not like this because I want PAC to develop indigenous capability.
In terms of requirements, it is clear that India is targeting 5th gen. Whether in the form of Russian or American fighter, or even a mixture of both, they have set their sights. It is natural that PAF will be looking for the counter.
It is difficult to ascertain PAF's 5th gen philosophy. Currently, there are a few competing ones in the world: Russians favoring manoeuverability and speed, Americans having a mix of stealth and performance, and the Chinese in the process of formulating their philosopgy but it looks like they are leaning towards the American option.
My ideal is to have both in inventory: pure performance (Su-57) and stealth + performance (F-22) Of course that is just fantasy.
Here are my controversial views. Stealth is 90s technology. As sensors keep getting better, stealth will be beaten. The future is meta materials which are still being researched. Performance and agility can be used to break radar locks - move so randomly that radar cannot track you. Beat the opponent's BVR advantage and close the gap to WVR where speed and agility rule. Breaking the BVR advantage can and will also involve EW. Passive radars and AEWACs will be extremely crucial.
That's my two cents. I am looking to see what the PAF commanders think.
