The rumble of Thunder
Usman Ansari
So, as we all now know, the first indigenously assembled JF-17 Thunder was unveiled on Monday just past, and a great deal of ‘woo-hoo' was made about it. Too right. It's been a long time coming, and it is a pretty good achievement by Pakistan. Given the importance of the programme for Pakistan, it simply can't be allowed to fail. Now that the aircraft everybody loved to read the obituary of is not only flying, receiving its initial operational capability, and now rolling off an indigenous assembly line, detractors have all fallen silent.
They're not even crowing about the ‘non-availability' of the Klimov RD-93 engine anymore, because it obviously is very much available, and will continue to be as long as it is required. It's a good engine, (even if it is Russian). In fact, I was told by someone involved in the test programme that the PAF is quite happy with the engine, and they may not switch to another. They did approach Rolls Royce and had a general exchange of views on an alternative engine, but not a specific one. The only candidates that spring to mind are the Spey, which is basically pretty old now and if it was ever to be fitted o a PAF aircraft it should have re-engined the Mirage-III/5s, and replaced the antiquated SNECMA Atar-09C, which is basically a descendant of the WWII German BMW 003. Hitler's cast off hand-me-down's definitely had a very long life. Sadly, the Spey-powered Mirage is an avenue that the PAF never went down. I think they should have so as to end up with an aircraft with performance akin to the South African Cheetah, but it's all water under the bridge now. (As a slight aside Rolls Royce did in the 1980s offer the Panavia Tornado's Turbo Union RB199 for the Sabre-II programme - minus the thrust reverser I presume, and I still wonder what an RB199 would do to an F-7PG if installed - which is another ‘what if?' or ‘could have been', when it comes to aircraft that could have flown in PAF colours).
I guess that leaves the EJ-200, which would definitely have given the JF-17 more of a kick. It's still an intriguing possibility, and I'd say the only Western engine that could be a candidate, (ironically it's also been mentioned with regards to the Tejas - more on that shower of **** later). Previously the SNECMA M-53 that powers the Mirage-2000 series was mentioned as a candidate, and indeed many claim that it was this engine which was supposed to power the Super Seven, as it was then. Tough luck to the French though, because it's not exactly a brilliant engine, and if the Spey is old news, then the M-53, (whatever variant), is too. Perhaps the French would therefore propose the M-88 which powers the Rafale? Why? It's underpowered and I don't see why Pakistan should settle for it. The UAE would like a more powerful variant of the M-88 for the Rafale if they decide to buy it, (it would be their loss going for the overpriced and overrated Rafale considering the Typhoon is a far better aircraft and will be in service with the RSAF meaning they could co-operate between them and reduce running costs, but I guess this is politics, and the UAE - despite Dubai's well publicised financial woes - still has money to burn). The French would gladly sell a variant of the M-88 to make even some money out of the Rafale programme, but it won't happen.
I was told that if anything a more powerful variant of the RD-93 called the RD-93M would be considered if any new powerplant was. Whether that engine is a concept at present, whether it is testing or about to leave the drawing board, whether it is thrust vectoring I don't know. I wasn't told anything more about this engine. I suspect if it is to be eventually be born however, it will probably be a variant of the RD-33MK, which powers the MiG-35. It certainly fits the bill. After all, the major difference between the RD-93 and the RD-33, from which it was developed, is the repositioning of the gearbox to below the engine. I have also heard past word about the PAF looking into TVC for the JF-17, so I guess the case becomes stronger. To me at least the RD-33MK looks like a very good engine, and if the RD-93M is a variant of this powerplant, I think everyone will be very happy.
Anyway, the JF-17 is now rolling off the production lines. What about exports? That is after all one aspect of the programme that is frequently mentioned. I think the prospects are very good. The JF-17/FC-1 isn't a stealth fighter or anything like that. It's a single-engined medium technology aircraft (albeit with an increasing number of modern characteristics), which is slated to be targeted for export to the developing world's air forces. From what I hear, from reliable sources, is that there is a great deal of interest in the JF-17, especially from African countries. Some potential customers have even asked if they can fly the aircraft.
The Aircraft Manufacturing Factory at Pakistan Aeronautical Complex isn't going to start churning out JF-17s in all manner of foreign colours for export however. The need for the PAF is simply too big at present, and it is the air force which is running the programme. So they're in a position to give the final word on what does and what doesn't happen. The AMF is making 50 percent of the airframe at present and will move incrementally to a full hundred percent in due course. As the programme is a 50:50 Sino-Pak venture production will also be split thus, but I suspect the Chinese, with their vastly more capable production capabilities will handling the bulk of any export order.
This means the engines will still be coming from Russia, and the avionics and weaponry will be Chinese. Pakistan has plans for an alternative avionics fit for the second block of 50 JF-17s, but I don't think they will be exporting the radar they eventually choose. There doesn't seem to be any indigenous research and development going into radars at present, just assembly and some production at PAC Kamra. I think that will be the case for the new radar too, after all the PAF is talking about an AESA radar which may potentially come from a Western source. The current KLJ-7 will probably be used in any export models as well. It is by no means an incapable radar from what we know of it, and I think it will stand up pretty well until the Chinese come up with something better. AESA radars are all the rage at present because it's new technology which offers less probability of intercept, greater track-while-scan capabilities, and is more capable in the air-to-ground mode. There's still room for radars based on older technology though, and I don't think any export customers will be disappointed with what they have. In terms of weaponry, avionics, and general performance of the aircraft, they'd be getting a very good deal, especially at that price.
As I mentioned the JF-17 is a medium technology aircraft. It doesn't really have any competitors. The Russians are only offering twin-engined fighters, (the Flanker and Fulcrum series), which are either more high tech and therefore more expensive in the case of the Flanker, or twin-engined and expensive to obtain and operate in the case of the Fulcrum. Europe is offering three fighters, the Typhoon, Rafale, and the JAS-39 Gripen. The Typhoon is undoubtedly the best by a considerable margin. It's probably the best thing flying behind the F/A-22 Raptor, (which is way out in a league of its own and needn't be mentioned again as a result - I'm obviously also not going to mention the F-35 in this scenario either). The Rafale is less capable than the Typhoon, but overpriced and overrated. Anyone who wants to buy it is welcome, but for the price they'd be paying they may as well opt for a Super Flanker variant from the Russians that would give the same capability for less, or come to their senses and buy the Typhoon if they desperately wanted a twin-engined Euro-canard fighter. That said, the French are desperate to sell to anyone at all, and they could drop the price, but knowing them they'd screw the customer for spares and support later, (just ask the Taiwanese about the running costs of their Mirage-2000s). The Gripen is definitely in the general performance bracket of the JF-17, but is at present at least, considerably more high tech. It also has an American engine, so the Yanks have a strangle-hold over who can and who cannot buy it. This coupled to the Swedish habit of sanctioning people also discounts the Gripen for a lot of customers; it's both expensive and comes with a multitude of chains attached, (it's a bloody nice nippy little aircraft though!).
The Yanks only have one basic aircraft on offer the F-16. I'm discounting the F-15 because that won't be being offered to anyone thinking of buying the JF-17. It's a magnificent aircraft, and it will be for a long time yet. It is still the benchmark of what a heavy fighter should be decades after it entered service, and if the ‘Silent Eagle' is ever selected by a customer, it will be around for a considerable time yet. Similarly the F/A-18 Hornet/Super Hornet isn't going to wind up being considered by someone who may opt for the JF-17 either, (it's in a different league and if you can get hold of Super Hornet why would you even mention the JF-17? - though I'd be surprised if the Super Hornet failed to win more exports other than from Australia, which only bought a small number as a stop-gap anyway). The F-16 is a contender however. The more recent variants are a good deal more capable than the JF-17 by a considerable margin, and even upgraded older airframes can ‘cut the mustard' as the Yanks would say. Though obviously more expensive and more capable the F-16 may be considered as an option for some countries the JF-17 would be targeted at for one reason and one only, the Yanks have so many of them they can afford to give them away for very little or even for free. How else do countries like Jordan and Morocco get hold of them, let alone Egypt? It's military aid. However, they come with political chains attached. Just ask Pakistan. The whole sorry F-16 saga was something which gave added impetus to the development of the JF-17 programme. It's no use having F-16s if you're under sanctions and can't get hold of the spares to get them in the air. They're as good as useless if grounded through lack of spares and support. That's the whole point with American military aid though; Washington gets to keep its ‘underlings' in line by yanking on the chains if they get ‘uppity'. Some countries which the JF-17 is targeted at wouldn't even be able to obtain them in the first place though. Does anyone think the Yanks would sell F-16s to Zimbabwe even at massively inflated prices under current circumstances? Of course not! Mugabe can opt for the JF-17 however, (though it would be nice if he didn't and actually used the money to feed his people or something).
The point is, that all other options are either too expensive to operate or obtain, too high tech, or too susceptible to being the target of sanctions if politics allows them to be obtained in the first place. The only other option as mentioned briefly, was the HAL Tejas. I have to admit, I liked the Tejas. It seemed to be to be an attempt to make a latter day Folland Gnat. I think it would have been a good aircraft, but spectacularly piss poor project management ruined it entirely. It should have been in frontline service years ago, but it will now probably never fulfil its potential. Even if the Indians retrospectively iron out its flaws and manage to get it into frontline service in numbers I don't think it will be winning export orders like the JF-17 could. The Indians may give some away for free, or have them as part of a wider deal, but for clowns who made a song and dance about the supposed ‘non-availability' engine for the JF-17 (a non-issue they fabricated in its entirety), it's the Tejas not the Thunder that can't get off the ground. Now the ‘Light Combat Aircraft' is being spoken of as a technology demonstrator for the ‘Medium Combat Aircraft', but if the same set of morons are running/ruining the show, the MCA will quite likely become a ‘technology demonstrator' for the ‘Heavy Combat Aircraft'. Going on current performance it's not unfeasible.
So, not wanting to jinx it, but I think the JF-17/FC-1 has a fairly rosy export outlook, not just because it's a good, affordable aircraft which will get better, but because it's a good aircraft from reliable suppliers who are not going to attach a load of political chains to it. If a country requires new multi-role combat aircraft with modern capabilities for its air force, but doesn't have too much money to spend on purchasing them or operating them, doesn't really have very good relations with Western countries, isn't really adept at maintaining high tech aircraft if it could afford them, then the JF-17/FC-1 is the only option really.
There doesn't really seem to be any other competitors do there? It's pretty much an open field at present.
