Viper0011.
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Hi,
I think the posters are taking a few liberties on their own on my account----. The aircraft can be any heavy---any version of the J---be it the J11, or the 16 or the JH7B---which is based more on the TORNADO than the SU25.
The only reason the JH7b is being mentioned again and again is its COST---weight carrying capacity---its new aesa radar and its grower type capabilities.
I remember during the 1965 war---there was a big fear about the anti aircraft batteries----that if approached at a certain angle----it looked impossible to beat the flack during the strike missions----but then some in the planning came up with the formulae of how the strikes would be carried out and how the aircraft will approach the area of flack----.
You have to plough thru the enemy's electronic net and clear a path for your strikes to be successful. With the air to ground weapons reaching 100---200---300 miles----the enemy does not even need to come into our side to do the damage.
All our cities and bases are vulnerable to their strikes from far away---.
So---let me gie an example for a lay person to understand----because many are too clever.
Consider Pakistan to be a car a HONDA CITY for its comparable size----now consider India as a Cadillac Escalade-----.
You are the Defender of Pakistan---ie the Honda City and you have to destroy the Cadillac----. You are given a 5 Lbs hammer to destroy the Cadillac.
OTOH----the indian is given a 25 Lbs sledgehammer to destroy the Honda City----.
The only other handicap that you have is that you little baby is also riding with you in that Honda City----. Now justify your attack strategy----and share with me why would you do what you want to do and what will be the results.
Dear MK, I have a lot of respect for you, specially now that I've learned about your background a little bit more. However, instead of playing analogies, I am going to write a DIRECT conflict scenario for you, which should mimick a potentially real one. With all due respect, I don't think the example of hammer applies here. So let's refine it so it makes sense to a layman like myself.
Let's say a War starts (I hope it never does), and India has estimated 500 jets on her disposal for Pakistan, leaving a couple hundred on other borders and they don't have a war going on with China.
Now out of the 500 jets available, they will pick 150-200 SU-30's and over 100 Mirage 2000's and Mig-29's for attacks inside Pakistan's airspace. That's combined 250-300 dedicated multi-role and interceptor air-crafts, with about about 40 Tornados for strike / ground support.
They've left 50 SU-30's and about 80-100 Mig-29's, Mig 21's, etc for air-defense and point defense inside India, supplemented by Hi-Lo SAM tier (Russian + Israelis AAM).
Now, the PAF sends 5 JH-7A's from Mushaf to attack an Indian air-force base in Punjab. The Phalcon on the other side of the border tracks these jets the second they get airborne (and the Phalcon system is 100 Miles inside the Indian airspace). The Phalcon system not only tracks these guys the second they took off, it knows their payload, etc too.
As there is always going to be some SU-30's inside the Pakistan airspace, or right around the Pakistani airspace, (due to the sheer volume of the strike force to like 250-300 jets), the Phalcon directs two SU-30's to target this formation. The SU-30's can see these guys the second they took off too as their radar has 400 KM range.
Without even changing the formation or any fight they may already be in, both the SU-30's fire BVR AAM's (out of 6-8 BVR's for attack carried by each, 3 are fired by one, 2 by the other one).
What will happen? May be out of 5, 3 JH-7's will survive and will be lost. And then what? Another formation of SU-30's elsewhere fires on them from 60-100 KM's away, potentially assigned to air-defense role inside India. Now you might lose 1 more and now you are crossing India. Well, you have dedicated defense waiting on you, SAM tier and then the Migs and remainder of SU-30's or what you have.
Can you make it to the target? Let alone coming back.......remember, by now, out of the 5, you have 1or 2 JH-7's flying. And this is my guesstimate. If Each SU-30 fired two missiles towards each JH-7 jet, you could have all down before you even penetrated the Indian airspace, or, you barely got inside. Whatever escapes from the SU-30's, will have to now go through SAMS and then point defense Mig 21's..... by the way, in this entire process, due to the SU-30's radar and missile ranges being much greater, the JH-7A couldn't fire on any SU-30, but the lone one, did fire two missiles and took out one of the SU-30's. Then what? It'll hit the SAM tier and point defense and will be taken out like a sitting duck!!! No going back as I suggested. No matter how emotional and superman anyone gets.
Anyone with their sane head reading the above would know the chances of reaching the target, let alone coming back. Now, we used 5 JH-7's, so 5*$ 20 million = $ 100 million worth of 5 jets downed in ONE mission, without success.
But, $ 100 million gives you 200 Cruise missiles for the price tag (if each missile costs around half a million dollars). If you can build those cheaper, even more can be build. But let's take a 100 for now. A 100 missiles fired on an Indian airbase for example, will result in say 30-40% hit ratio, that is, if the Indians had a very capable ABM system. They do have Barak so I'll give them credit there. But, even with 30-40% meaning 30-40 missiles hitting GPS based targets, that's a LOT of damage. No loss of airplane, a failed mission and all.
If someone can question this scenario, which is actually written down to serious amounts of lower level details, then I have no further answers.
All I'll say to our fanboys and to our senior members is that, this isn't the 65 or the 71. The tactics used back then and the entire game was different. Hell, India isn't the India of 1990's, just looking at their air-defense coverage tells you they have multiple tiers from within India, reaching out to the borders from deep inside.
The PAF knows these realities too and that's why the H2, H4, Stealthy Raad were developed. I don't like to make statements that I don't truly know or have 100% assurances that X was true; but based on what I am seeing is that the PAF wants multi-role. The JH-7A or B or C, will not be inducted in the PAF. It brings more risk, maintenance, less capability in THIS theater (current Indo-Pak, not 65, not 71).
The J-xx or SU-35 or even FC-20 would be more beneficial than a JH-7A, supplemented by more -16's too.