Andif the 16s especially old ones are made available? I think PAF will jump at the opportunity. Just my thinking.
But in general fully agree with you.
A
The F-16s will be the exception, always. For $4 billion US you can add 18 new Block-72 and upgrade our existing fleet to F-16V standards. That's a net-addition of 90+ fighters equipped with AESA radars.
So in that case, the PAF will probably think, "okay, let's delay Project Azm a bit" because it would have 4-5 units of high-end fighters to hold the fort down against anything the IAF throws at them. But no other import is going to get that consideration.
MADE THIS A MONTH AGO. Have a look. Ignore the speculations i made about “these units could be for PAF”
WIKIPEDIA
On 16 January 2019, the Bulgarian parliament approved the government's proposal to start negotiations with the US to purchase F-16V Block 70 aircraft.
The Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress of the possible sale on 30 May, identifying that aircraft as F-16C/D Block 70/72s and stating their price as $1.67 billion.
However viewing the price being too high a lower price was offer after negotiations of $1.256 billion making a cost of just over $157 million per plane.The deal was vetoed by the Bulgarian President, Rumen Radev on 23 July 2019, citing the need to find a broader consensus for the deal, sending the deal back to parliament, but on 26 July the deal was again approved by parliament, overruling the veto, and this time was approved by Radev. The planes will be delivered by 2023-2024.
Used wiki as a quick source
So here are the calculations.
Already existing orders on LM :
= 30
16 For Bahrain
14 For Slovakia
Confirmed Sales :
Morocco = 25 New UNDER FMS/DSCA worth $3.79bn with supports, equipments. + $985.2mn to upgrade current 23 Block C/D 52s to Block 70/72 (
JANE's ON Morocco F-16 a must read article, i will discuss below)
Now let's break down this. Aside from the pending 30 orders, they expect 60+, this plus before 60 is a very important one.
They have this order from morocca yet to be finalized (article of janes is contradicting the above article, jane's confirmed the sale, but not the same case in this article), of 25 units. 60-25 = 35
As per Sir @Khafee , We are looking for 36 New plus V upgrade. Bulgaria managed to get a deal of $1.256bn with $157mn for a single aircraft equating the deal to be for 8 units.
35+8 = 43
60-43 = 17
Now this 17 could be ours, could be not until we don't know what the Far East country is but whoever it is, wants 66+ as per article so that reference has got nothing to do with the 60+ expected above. 17*17 = 34
If this is 17 is for us, then we can expect our 70/72 deal to be in phases but our fleet upgradation to V standard could be with our first phase 17.
Bulgaria had to spend $985.2mn to upgrade 23 Block C/D 52s to 70/72 (15 Single / 8 Twin Seater)
Not taking into account the upgrade cost difference between single and twin, it costs around $42.3mn per Block 52 to be upgraded to V standard.
The upgrade features :
Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing Systems (JHMCS)
- UTC Aerospace Systems (UTAS)
- DB-110 Tactical Reconnaissance Pods (TRPs)
- Lockheed Martin AN/AAQ-33 Sniper pods
- Exelis AN/ALQ-211(V)9 Advanced Integrated Defensive Electronic Warfare Suite (AIDEWS) podded electronic warfare (EW) systems.
Weapons listed include
- Raytheon AIM-120C-7 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAMs)
- Boeing GBU-38/54 Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) kits
- GBU-10/12/16/39/49/50 precision-guided bombs.
( Jane's article )
So a fleet of 76 Aircrafts ipgraded to V Standard will amount to AT LEAST $3.2bn plus the additional new 36 Block 70/72 = $5.65bn
totalling it to $8.8bn
Morocco is in a sort of similar situation like our's. It assists US in Iraq and Syria, now US has left Syria, let's see what becomes of the deal.
USAF said in an article that they will take F-16s to 2045. If we have 90+ 4.5 gen fighters we are secure till 2040s. In the meantime we can also continue with AZM on a slower pace(or faster if economy allows) so that when the time for F-16s come AZM will be ready.
F-16s should be pushed to at least 110 or 120