IS PAKISTAN INTERESTED IN THE TURKISH TFX

[war&peace]

What's wrong with TFX? Why can the TFX be that joint venture you're talking about?

No, I did not rule out TFX at all so that's not my opinion, please read my comment again!!!

But many of the members on pdf are claiming that because of the use of US systems, it may not be possible for Pakistan...you should pose this question to them

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

No, I did not rule out TFX at all so that's not my opinion, please read my comment again!!!

But many of the members on pdf are claiming that because of the use of US systems, it may not be possible for Pakistan...you should pose this question to them

Elhamdulillah, Turkey can leverage it's relationship with the USA to ensure that TFX is exportable to Pak. After all, it's a Turkish end system. After Brexit, the USA is in need of Turkish alliance more than ever before..

 

[war&peace]

Elhamdulillah, Turkey can leverage it's relationship with the USA to ensure that TFX is exportable to Pak. After all, it's a Turkish end system. After Brexit, the USA is in need of Turkish alliance more than ever before..

That's very positive. I think right now all options are open and nothing has been decided. But I guess after development of JF-17 Pakistan wants to go with more indigenuous way whether it is TFX or J-31, it will only be accepted after a considerable input from PAF has been accommodated and necessary modifications are made on JV basis where nothing is kept secret. Turkey has been a friendly and a brotherly (some mates have a problem with this word) nation with Pakistan and we should join hands in all fields and especially in R&D of military hardware. It is very difficult for any nation to develop the 5th/6th gen aircraft alone due to exacting requirement of technical skills.

 

[risingsinga]

Hello, @war&peace @That Guy @RAMPAGE

I have been following the news related to the next gen aircraft for PAF, Let me reconcile his different statements which apparently appear contradictory but in fact are not and all of you are saying the same thing but in different words and perhaps with different understandings. According to your air chief Pakistan will develop the next gen platform as it did with JF-17 perhaps with more control and customization to suit your needs and also for economic reasons. However it will take time so Pakistan will also look for some modern aircraft to fill the gap like EFT 2000, Su-35 or any other so that PAF has enough punch to meet current challenges. So I guess both of his statements on different occasions make sense.

Regards,
Maaz

 

[A2Z]

US technology will make Pakistan reluctant to join. Despite US tech being superior to basically every other nation's, there is a matter of reliability on getting the parts without too much of a headache (political deadlocks, anti-Pakistani ferver, Indian lobbying...etc).

With Congress blocking the F-16 deal, do you really think they'd be willing to let Pakistan get their hands on next gen US tech, when they constantly accuse Pakistan of giving US tech to China?

Unless Turkey can develop and produce every single part of the next gen fighter domestically, Pakistani military circles will always view it will a weary eye.

Yes you have a point that US involvement in the program is sort of a turnoff for Pakistan but we should not forget that its not a direct Pak-US deal Turkey would be involved in between. If everything was just like you think, Russians would never have given engine for the Thunder program. At first the engine was bought through China but eventually Russians agreed to sell it directly to Pakistan. Somethings require time and some problems require a different approach to be solved.

 

[RAMPAGE]

US technology will make Pakistan reluctant to join.

And what did I say in my original post?

 

[Imtiaz_Sarwar]

I sincerely believe that for Pakistan, the era of buying off the shelf systems is nearing its end.

[USER=171000]
That shows the way to the future. With experience gained from JF-17 program, our own designs with joint co-production should serve us best.[/user]

 

[araz]

The PAF air chief has dreamt big and I like it. Someone needs to have the gumption and the mental strength to catch the bull by the horn and complete a difficult task and it is always good to see that. JFT has given PAF the confidence to step out into the wild wild west and announce its arrival in the big players.
That said TFX is yet on paper. Typical life cycle of development to prototype to low batch production can vary from 15 -30 yrs depending on where you start from. There are a lot of technoligies which Turkey has not demonstrated any knowledge in at least going by publically available data.
Therefore let us assume that an optimistic time of 20 yrs is required. Now add to that the problems asociated with engine manufacturing and attaining reliable and long lasting results can be another hurdle. Avionics wise Turkey is nearly there and I dont see much problems with this issue.
The cost of such a project could run into billions. If you assume that the cosf is 10 billion( again being extremely conservative) and there are 3 partners(Turkey, South Korea and Pakistan) you are looking at 3.3 billion per partner plus the risk of a failed product as none of the partners have independantly designed and flown a fighter jet of their own.
Then there are technical aspects. What are you contributing in stealth fighter. You have to have something to sell rather than going and sitting there looking pretty. I am afraid here also you dont have much to contribute.
Lastly your need is not going to be more than 60 planes at the most. So if you add a cost of 120 million plus your investment of 3.3 billion,your cost per unit will be 120+50 million =170 million per plane. The plane will arrive in 2045 assuming you have signed a contract by 2018 ( assuming negotiations over 2yrs starting later part of 2016). There may be costs and time over runs and you could get base unit price going upto 200 million per unit. Total cost of project 10-12 billion over 20 yrs.
Assume that on the other hand you spend 120 million per unit price buying and integrating avionics into the J31which becomes available to you in 2025. You will have integrated the plane in your air force 10 -12 yrs earlier. You will probably have a loan which you will pay back over 5 yrs. Cost of integration would be 7-8 billion assuming a deal similar to what PAF worked out in case of JFT.
Now if you redo your sums again by these very conservative figures you will realize that you only have one option. The only way you will go for TFX is if the j31 never materializes or the Chinese do not want to sell it to you.
Regards
A

 

[cloud4000]

After Brexit, the USA is in need of Turkish alliance more than ever before..

Can you please explain what Brexit has to do with Turkish-US alliance?

 

[!eon]

PAF could not even decide about 4.5 gen fighter since 2003 & wasted the funds and yet about 5. gen fighter ? Hopefully they will start thinking about it after Indian induction of T-50.
Pakistan Air Force is today a decade behind from it's first most adversary and if they just wait for TFX program and don't get any 5. gen from China, soon gap is going to be horribly widened.

 

[That Guy]

And what did I say in my original post?

The difference between what you and I said is that you believe that PAF would join the TFX regardless, I do not.

 

[shah1398]

Lol, Turks haven't even started building their 5th generation jet...and there are already articles about Pakistan wanting it.

Turkish fifth generation jet is decade(s?) away from mass deployment.

Pakistan is looking for a 5th generation aircraft and it wants to kick start aviation business inside country by establishing an Aviation City, which will take at least a decade. So this is the best chance to pre emptively involve in this program so when the aviation city comes online, we are already one step ahead. Turkish brothers are generous enough to involve us in this program, only if we ask for it. TFX is the best chance that Pakistan can get in 5th Gen aircraft business just from start. Getting into any such program mid way does not serves the bigger purpose.

PAF could not even decide about 4.5 gen fighter since 2003 & wasted the funds and yet about 5. gen fighter ?

There was no lack of decision but lack of funds for PAF. And that was why we ended up getting only 18 Block 52s in the end.

 

[!eon]

Pakistan is looking for a 5th generation aircraft and it wants to kick start aviation business inside country by establishing an Aviation City, which will take at least a decade. So this is the best chance to pre emptively involve in this program so when the aviation city comes online, we are already one step ahead. Turkish brothers are generous enough to involve us in this program, only if we ask for it. TFX is the best chance that Pakistan can get in 5th Gen aircraft business just from start. Getting into any such program mid way does not serves the bigger purpose.



There was no lack of decision but lack of funds for PAF. And that was why we ended up getting only 18 Block 52s in the end.

Funds had been problem but not biggest problem, at least until recently, thanks to some good friends of Pakistan, things were manageable in spite of huge corruptions. And funds were allocated for new purchase but used somewhere else: was not a good decision.

I don't know what else could this behavior be named but lack of decision, as they always wait for India to decide and could not decide for themselves what to get, just carried out evaluations and more evaluations.

Now look at the position of PAF in Kargil war to today. It's horribly horrible.

 

[CriticalThinker02]

If the TFX can be guaranteed that it won't be a sanction prone jet for Pakistan than yes it's a golden opportunity but still I think there is a better option for Pakistan, we could still work with the TFX program and as well with China's J-31 if possible to get an understanding and know how of the technologies involved and produce our own ingeniously developed fifth generation jet, this will be a far more difficult process but that end results would be ten times better.

 

[niaz]

If the TFX can be guaranteed that it won't be a sanction prone jet for Pakistan than yes it's a golden opportunity but still I think there is a better option for Pakistan, we could still work with the TFX program and as well with China's J-31 if possible to get an understanding and know how of the technologies involved and produce our own ingeniously developed fifth generation jet, this will be a far more difficult process but that end results would be ten times better.

Probability being that power plant, avionics & the armament would be from different countries albeit manufactured under licence in Turkey. Therefore it can’t be 100% sanction proof.