A lot of Indians and western media outlets keep saying that when Russia occupies Ukraine a brutal insurgency will follow but Russia will get its buffer zone with NATO. Even though Russia my prevail, I stand with Ukraine for I believe that an illegal occupation has been started by Russia. It is never ok for a strong country to occupy a weaker people like India does with innocent Kashmiris
The west and the Indians believe that after Ukraine China would take on Taiwan. I disagree and my reasons are based on why I believe Russia invaded Ukraine
- there is no formal defense alliance between Ukraine and NATO vis a vis the US. This means that Russia will not face any direct military intervention for its actions
- The Ukrainian are significantly weaker than Russia, economically and militarily hence there would be brave and nationalistic defense like we see on TV but in the end the Russian numerical and material superiority will prevail. We see this today with Russian taking their time in encircling KIYV. It took NATO with 350k ground troops and 1000+ aircraft 19 days from March 20 to April 9 to occupy Baghdad. It took Russia 1 day to take over bases and effectively encircle kIYV by day 5 they have a massive armored presence in all direction of KIYi and have soldiers inside the second largest city Kharkiv. This is partially due to the Russian capability in terms of a ground war rather than a longer range amphibious assault.
- The lack of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine
- The Russians feel it’s an existential threat for them if NATO deploys in Ukraine as every invasion of Russia in the last 400 years has come vis Ukraine, the French, the UK and Germany for crimea and more recently the Germans in WW2
With this in mind the question comes up why China would invade Taiwan or India
- American has laws on the books that say that they would defend Taiwan. There are no such laws on the books for India
- China feels that it’s trade routes and access to warm waters is threatened by India in Kashmir hence the threat from India is existential. No such threat is perceived by Taiwan
- China enjoys a significantly larger military advantage over India due to its land border. It also has a massive military ally in Pakistan which would engage and neutralize a significant portion of Indians army, Air Force and navy. It would be an easy way to show off its superpower capability against India. With Taiwan the assault will need to be amphibious which is not China’s strength yet and other Asian Allies like Japan and South Korea will hinder China’s ability to dominate till they build 6-10 ford class carrier groups
- India does not have tactical nukes. Would India be willing to go to a full nuclear exchange with China and Pakistan over territory in the north which it does not really care about? Kashmir too is a major drain why try to keep it if Delhi , Gujarat, Punjab, bihar snd UP are at threat?
- A lot of land india occupies today is considered part of China and Pakistan.
What do you think I am looking for discussion not chest thumping
K
If China regains control of Taiwan, the west would be tempted to get involved and there is a high probability they will.
If war breaks out between China and India ( with Pakistan getting involved ) the west will not get involved.
There would be condemnation and calls for immediate halt to hostilities, but it would be all hot air.
They may send weapons, but even that will be limited.
Of all the members of the anti-China quad, India is the weakest link.
If China and Australia went to war, the west would get involved,
The idea of a Non-white country beating a white country in a war would shake them to the core and they won’t allow it.
With Japan, it's a very high likelihood the west would get involved and probably send troops etc.
India will be a different ball game.
The perception of India has changed greatly since BJP took power in the west.
Plus the westerners really don't care too much for the lives of Indians/Pakistanis/Bengalis and Afghans.
They would be more concerned with access to the market.
The Indians in the west will be screaming until they are blue in the face, but it wont matter,
The Pakistanis would also be screaming and the westerners really don't want to get involved in the whole India Pak situation,
They see it as a very toxic rivalry.