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With that logic US, Russia, and other countries couldn’t stage interventions.

US sits in middle of Syria illegally...for years. Israel is holding the Golan for decades and UN has called upon Israel to leave that land and it’s not internationally recognized belonging to Israel, but Syria. Last I checked there is not a no fly zone above Israel. Syria occupied Lebanon till early 2000’s, didn’t see a no fly zone there either:

So again as long as Iran can count on Russia or China to exercise their veto any resolution is dead on arrival.

To think that the world would enforce a no fly zone over iran because it takes a small corridor that is less than 100KM is laughable.When Iran took over the the islands in Persian Gulf, the UN didn’t say a thing.

My point is, if push comes to shove and Azerbaijan restricts Iran’s right to free trade it can establish a buffer zone to guarantee open trade with Armenia.
I see your point, but we are not the US, Russia and China which is given a free pass to veto anything in the UN .

I think the only way this could happen is if Iran makes some secret agreement with Russia, who will then veto anything on arrival. Perhaps if Russia and Iran agree on construction of the North-South corridor it could allow this to happen. I think it is very unreasonable and very very unlikely a coalition of European nations and US would try to establish a no-fly zone over Iran. They don't risk a war with Iran over it's nuclear program, so I really don't think they'll risk it over a buffer zone.
What are they going to do? Sanction Iran? Lol

You are already under maximum pressure sanctions.

Nothing to lose at this point.
I guess that right lol
 
With that logic US, Russia, and other countries couldn’t stage interventions.

US sits in middle of Syria illegally...for years. Israel is holding the Golan for decades and UN has called upon Israel to leave that land and it’s not internationally recognized belonging to Israel, but Syria. Last I checked there is not a no fly zone above Israel. Syria occupied Lebanon till early 2000’s, didn’t see a no fly zone there either:

So again as long as Iran can count on Russia or China to exercise their veto any resolution is dead on arrival.

To think that the world would enforce a no fly zone over iran because it takes a small corridor that is less than 100KM is laughable.When Iran took over the the islands in Persian Gulf, the UN didn’t say a thing.

My point is, if push comes to shove and Azerbaijan restricts Iran’s right to free trade it can establish a buffer zone to guarantee open trade with Armenia.
Why? Russia and the US are permanent members of the UNSC. They can veto any resolution they want. Why can't they stage interventions? Nobody can pass a resolution against them in the UNSC.

US is a permanent member of the UNSC. A recognized nuclear state and one of the recognized winners of the World War II. The UNSC has never passed a single resolution against Israel because they were all vetoed by the US. All resolutions against Israel have been passed in the UN General Assembly, not the UN Security Council.

The real question is if we can count on Russia or China to exercise their veto right for our territorial ambitions. And that pretty much boils down to what they will gain from it and what they will lose. Just off the top of my head, they will lose Turkey, Arabs and possibly Pakistan. It seems that they will lose more than gain. So, no. They won't exercise their veto for us. We are not Israel to have the unconditional support of permanent members of the UNSC.

Iran took back our islands in the Persian Gulf when Iran was a major US ally. Meanwhile, no country could claim those islands because it was done before the UAE became a state. The UK itself was a colonialist power in those islands and the US was on our side. We maintained good/normal relations with all powerful countries at the time.

If Iran had normal relations with Western countries, one could've said that they won't act against Iran over a simple buffer zone. But the truth is that Western countries are currently looking for an excuse to neutralize Iran's threat. And initiating a war without a casus belli is in fact the best excuse to act against Iran and form an international military coalition against us.

I see your point, but we are not the US, Russia and China which is given a free pass to veto anything in the UN .

I think the only way this could happen is if Iran makes some secret agreement with Russia, who will then veto anything on arrival. Perhaps if Russia and Iran agree on construction of the North-South corridor it could allow this to happen. I think it is very unreasonable and very very unlikely a coalition of European nations and US would try to establish a no-fly zone over Iran. They don't risk a war with Iran over it's nuclear program, so I really don't think they'll risk it over a buffer zone.

I guess that right lol
A UN-led war against Iran over our nuclear program and over a potential occupation of the Republic of Azerbaijan will have very different objectives with extremely different scenarios. The former is impossible to be successfully done without a complete ground invasion of Iran (which is insanely difficult because of our area and population size), while the later (with an objective of liberating the territories under Iranian occupation) can be very easily achieved by a coalition of NATO forces and other countries that will join the UN-led mission. Have you forgotten Saddam's invasion of Kuwait? Saddam managed to invade Kuwait in a few days but what happened after that?

In fact, if Iran occupies part of the territory of any country and the UN Security Council does not immediately pass a resolution against us, effectively putting us under Chapter VII and issuing an ultimatum to leave all the occupied territories, one can be damn sure that Iran is in fact a nuclear state with strong nuclear deterrence like India. But is Iran already a nuclear state with nuclear deterrence? I don't think so. Evidence suggests otherwise. And that is why Iran will not make a move against Republic of Baku. We should have supported Armenia during the war and now it's too late (unless Armenia wants to attack Republic of Baku).
 
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A UN-led war against Iran over our nuclear program and against a potential occupation of the Republic of Azerbaijan will have very different objectives with extremely different scenarios. The former is impossible to be successfully done without a ground invasion of Iran (which is insanely difficult because of our area and population size), while the later (with an objective of liberating the territories under Iranian occupation) can be very easily achieved by a coalition of NATO forces and other countries that will join the UN-led mission. Have you forgotten Saddam's invasion of Kuwait? Saddam managed to invade Kuwait in a few days but what happened after that?

In fact, if Iran occupies part of the territory of any country and the UN Security Council does not immediately pass a resolution against us, effectively putting us under Chapter VII and requesting us to leave all the occupied territories immediately, one can be damn sure that Iran is in fact a nuclear state with strong nuclear deterrence. But is Iran already a nuclear state with nuclear deterrence? I don't think so. Evidence suggests otherwise. And that is why Iran will not make a move against Republic of Baku. We should have supported Armenia during the war and now it's too late (unless Armenia wants to attack Republic of Baku).

Like I said dadash, such a thing can only be done with the approval of Russia who can veto any UN-led mission.

Regardless, t is not too late and you will see based on this large scale deployment, because nothing irreversible has happened. What would be too late is if Azerbaijan took Syunik province as well. As long as Armenia and Iran have a border, it does not matter if they have Karabakh, which was legally there's to begin with. Iran will guarantee border safety, and with Armenia construct a new road to link Iran and Armenia safely. They are already building a new road to circumvent the Goris Kapan highway.

This forces will remain deployed in the north indefinitely to guarantee that Syunik province remains open. The purpose of this deployment is to give a red-line to Azerbaijan to not invade the province.
 
Like I said dadash, such a thing can only be done with the approval of Russia who can veto any UN-led mission.

Regardless, t is not too late and you will see based on this large scale deployment, because nothing irreversible has happened. What would be too late is if Azerbaijan took Syunik province as well. As long as Armenia and Iran have a border, it does not matter if they have Karabakh, which was legally there's to begin with. Iran will guarantee border safety, and with Armenia construct a new road to link Iran and Armenia safely. They are already building a new road to circumvent the Goris Kapan highway.

This forces will remain deployed in the north indefinitely to guarantee that Syunik province remains open. The purpose of this deployment is to give a red-line to Azerbaijan to not invade the province.
Yes. Just don't count on Russia or China. They won't veto such a resolution against us because it will be against their interests and economic/military ties with Turks and Arabs and they do not want to destabilize the region just for us.

Yes. An alternative road is all that we can hope for at the moment realistically. If Iran wants to ensure the safety of Syunik, a security treaty with Armenia that legitimizes our military intervention in support of them against a potential invasion of Syunik must be on our agenda immediately. It should be publicized and approved by both parliaments of Iran and Armenia. It should be signed by the heads of our states in front of TV cameras. That would send a stronger signal to Baku than arranging our military equipment along the border when they know that we won't cross the border because of the reasons I mentioned earlier.
 
Yes. Just don't count on Russia or China. They won't veto such a resolution against us because it will be against their interests and economic/military ties with Turks and Arabs and they do not want to destabilize the region just for us.

Yes. An alternative road is all that we can hope for at the moment. If Iran wants to ensure the safety of Syunik, a security treaty with Armenia that legitimizes our military intervention in support of them against a potential invasion of Syunik must be on our agenda immediately. It should be publicized and approved by both parliament of Iran and Armenia. That would send a stronger signal to Baku than arranging our military equipment along the border when they know that we won't cross the border because of the reasons I mentioned earlier.

It appears such project is underway.

I don't know whether Iran will be involved in this project, but given this military deployment, which appears to be quite serious and quite large, it is probably coordinated with Armenia.

Armenia was almost forced to accept a loss of Syunik by allowing the establishment of a Azerbaijan and Turkey corridor but it now looks like Armenia will no longer have to accept such demands because Iran have likely guaranteed the provinces security. That's why they are so mad. Nothing officially signed yet, but I think it is quite obvious that Iran will not be okay with a invasion of the province or for the province to be rendered into some de-facto province of Azerbaijan. I understand it may not be easy or possible to establish a buffer zone for Azerbaijan , but we can cross the border of Armenia if allowed by them. We don't know what's going on behind the scenes, but sooner or later shoraye amniaty will have to provide some answers.

I will say their are also benefits for the interests of Russia, if the North-South Transport corridor is to be established which will be a major boost for the Russian economy and provide Russia with trade access to Bandar Abbas i.e. access to the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. That is huge for them.

 
We should have supported Armenia during the war and now it's too late (unless Armenia wants to attack Republic of Baku).

You speak logical, then say something as illogical as this.

Iranian Azeri’s make up a significant part of the population of Iran and Iranian Armenians a much smaller portion.

Iran was so self conscious of this that Iranian clerics and lawmakers were quick to reference solidarity with Iranian Azeris over the Azeri-Armani conflict.

For crying out loud, Iran’s SL is Azeri and speaks Azeri and said Azeri lands should be liberated.
And you say here that Iran should have supported Armenia? :omghaha:

Like I said illogical when you consider the state of affairs.
 
You speak logical, then say something as illogical as this.

Iranian Azeri’s make up a significant part of the population of Iran and Iranian Armenians a much smaller portion.

Iran was so self conscious of this that Iranian clerics and lawmakers were quick to reference solidarity with Iranian Azeris over the Azeri-Armani conflict.

For crying out loud, Iran’s SL is Azeri and speaks Azeri and said Azeri lands should be liberated.
And you say here that Iran should have supported Armenia? :omghaha:

Like I said illogical when you consider the state of affairs.
It was the same in 1990s and yet we supported Armenia indirectly. Didn't we? At least that's what most Azeris believe anyway.

If we want to think about such things, we should also not attack Republic of Baku because it can upset some Azeris in Iran. Which one is worse in your opinion? Supporting Armenia or attacking Republic of Baku directly? But who cares really? We didn't hear much about Azeris in Iran before Ahmadinejad made the stupid move of letting them have a team in the Premier League. All this hype in the media started after that. Give Sanandaj a team and you will hear a lot about Kurds too.

Persians and Kurds are over 75% of Iran's population. Both of them wouldn't mind supporting Armenia. I doubt Arabs, Lurs or Baluchis would give a f*ck either.
 
Persians and Kurds are over 75% of Iran's population. Both of them wouldn't mind supporting Armenia. I doubt Arabs, Lurs or Baluchis would give a f*ck either.

Iran’s SL would, the most powerful man in Iran. And he has final say. Unless Israel attacks Iran from Azerbaijan or Azerbaijan attacks Iran very overtly (not a mere border guard skirmish/scuffle), then there is almost 0% chance he will betray his lineage.

Hence why I said it’s illogical what you said.
 
Iran’s SL would, the most powerful man in Iran. And he has final say. Unless Israel attacks Iran from Azerbaijan or Azerbaijan attacks Iran very overtly (not a mere border guard skirmish/scuffle), then there is almost 0% chance he will betray his lineage.

Hence why I said it’s illogical what you said.
Khamenei was the Supreme Leader in 1994 as well. He didn't mind supporting Armenia back then. Plus, there are doubts about Khamenei's lineage. Some say that he is in fact from the Khorasan region of Iran and his father lived in Khameneh only temporarily. Nevertheless, Khamenei is a practical man. I think the regime miscalculated this time. They didn't want to sour our relations with Turkey, as one of our most important regional partners, over Armenia and they overlooked the khariyat of Aliyev.
 
Why? Russia and the US are permanent members of the UNSC. They can veto any resolution they want. Why can't they stage interventions? Nobody can pass a resolution against them in the UNSC.

US is a permanent member of the UNSC. A recognized nuclear state and one of the recognized winners of the World War II. The UNSC has never passed a single resolution against Israel because they were all vetoed by the US. All resolutions against Israel have been passed in the UN General Assembly, not the UN Security Council.

The real question is if we can count on Russia or China to exercise their veto right for our territorial ambitions. And that pretty much boils down to what they will gain from it and what they will lose. Just off the top of my head, they will lose Turkey, Arabs and possibly Pakistan. It seems that they will lose more than gain. So, no. They won't exercise their veto for us. We are not Israel to have the unconditional support of permanent members of the UNSC.

Iran took back our islands in the Persian Gulf when Iran was a major US ally. Meanwhile, no country could claim those islands because it was done before the UAE became a state. The UK itself was a colonialist power in those islands and the US was on our side. We maintained good/normal relations with all powerful countries at the time.

If Iran had normal relations with Western countries, one could've said that they won't act against Iran over a simple buffer zone. But the truth is that Western countries are currently looking for an excuse to neutralize Iran's threat. And initiating a war without a casus belli is in fact the best excuse to act against Iran and form an international military coalition against us.


A UN-led war against Iran over our nuclear program and over a potential occupation of the Republic of Azerbaijan will have very different objectives with extremely different scenarios. The former is impossible to be successfully done without a complete ground invasion of Iran (which is insanely difficult because of our area and population size), while the later (with an objective of liberating the territories under Iranian occupation) can be very easily achieved by a coalition of NATO forces and other countries that will join the UN-led mission. Have you forgotten Saddam's invasion of Kuwait? Saddam managed to invade Kuwait in a few days but what happened after that?

In fact, if Iran occupies part of the territory of any country and the UN Security Council does not immediately pass a resolution against us, effectively putting us under Chapter VII and issuing an ultimatum to leave all the occupied territories, one can be damn sure that Iran is in fact a nuclear state with strong nuclear deterrence like India. But is Iran already a nuclear state with nuclear deterrence? I don't think so. Evidence suggests otherwise. And that is why Iran will not make a move against Republic of Baku. We should have supported Armenia during the war and now it's too late (unless Armenia wants to attack Republic of Baku).

All these people and countries are pointless in the Azerbaijan scenario. It is a Turkic country and they signed a defensive treaty. An attack on Azerbajian will trigger Turkey's defense pact with Azerbaijan instantly. In truth Baku is just a middle man and not the real picture but Turkey won't allow Iran inside Azerbaijan. This will lead to major regional war that nor of the states want which means this entire saga was a dead end from the get go depsite the back and forth words exchanged earlier in the week. The Azeris are politically assurred they have strong military and on top of that Turkey will deploy full stop with that they fency their chances in any eventful out-break. That is why they invaded Nagorno-Karabakh to begin they knew interventions were not coming because they have done their homework before going in there and have signed the right treaties and made the right alliances.

Also Iran is not planning on engaging any Turkic state in the near future in the region it has to many of them bordering her already and they are very nationalistic and warlike people not someone you miscalculate against easily unless it was last resort because they are unpredictable example a country like Turkmenistan it is much stronger than it's actual size and the same with Azerbaijan herself they are nothing like Iraqi militias they are professional, mobile and proven warriors numbers really doesn't mean much in their case since their output is great.
 
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All these people and countries are pointless in the Azerbaijan scenario. It is a Turkish satelitte state and they signed a defensive treaty. An attack on Azerbajian will trigger Turkey's defense pact with Azerbaijan instantly. In truth Baku is just a middle man and not the real picture but Turkey won't allow Iran to set a foot inside Azerbaijan. This will lead to major regional war that nor of the states want which means this entire saga was a dead end from the get go depsite the back and forth words exchanged earlier in the week. The Azeris are politically assurred they have strong militarily and on top of that Turkey will deploy full stop with that they fency their chances in any eventful clash that breaks out from there
Turkey will not fire a single bullet at Iran no matter what. The only thing that prevents Iran from occupying Azerbaijan and adding it to our territory is the UN Security Council and a US coalition against us like what happened to Saddam after invading Kuwait.
 
Turkey will not fire a single bullet at Iran no matter what. The only thing that prevents Iran from occupying Azerbaijan and adding it to our territory is the UN Security Council and a US coalition against us like what happened to Saddam after invading Kuwait.

Turkey will fight Iran for every single inch of azerbaijan they call it two nations in one.. It would be considered like setting foot on turkish territory.. UN will not deploy just condemnations but Turkey will as there defensive treaty will be triggered
 
Turkey will fight Iran for every single inch of azerbaijan they call it two nations in one.. It would be considered like setting foot on turkish territory.. UN will not deploy just condemnations
Turkey will not do anything against Iran. They are smart enough to know that such a war will bring destruction to both countries like the Iraq-Iran war. The UN is a whole different matter. The only thing that stops Iran from annexing a buffer zone in the Republic of Baku is the UN Security Council and the US in particular. Anyway, your discussion is pointless and worthless because Iran will never be the first country to attack because of the UNSC.

But if hypothetically one day Republic of Azerbaijan attacks Iran, Iran will occupy it and Turkey can do nothing about it except voicing support for them and sending them military equipment. But again, Republic of Azerbaijan will never attack Iran either.
 
Turkey will not do anything against Iran. They are smart enough to know that such a war will bring destruction to both countries like the Iraq-Iran war. The UN is a whole different matter. The only thing that stops Iran from annexing a buffer zone in the Republic of Baku is the UN Security Council and the US in particular. Anyway, your discussion is pointless and worthless because Iran will never be the first country to attack because of the UNSC.

But if hypothetically one day Republic of Azerbaijan attacks Iran, Iran will occupy it and Turkey can do nothing about it except voicing support for them and sending them military equipment. But again, Republic of Azerbaijan will never attack Iran either.

You are entirely mistaken there. They have signed the susha accord treaty any attack on Azerbaijan will trigger full Turkish response. This is the real ground realities. There is no chance of Turkey stepping aside for an Iran offensive on it's own enclave and a friendly brotherly turkish country it shares history and defensive pact with. They were heavily involved in the Nagorno-Karabakh and assured Azerbaijan full protection against all comers including major powers who sought to get involved one way or another it was blocked by Turkey
 
You are entirely mistaken there. They have signed the susha accord treaty any attack on Azerbaijan will trigger full Turkish response. This is the real ground realities. There is no chance of Turkey stepping aside for an Iran offensive on it's own enclave and a friendly brotherly turkish country it shares history and defensive pact with for Iran to roll into. They were heavily involved in the Nagorno-Karabakh and assured Azerbaijan full protection against all comers including major powers who sought to get involved one way or another it was blocked by Turkey
Russia had signed a treaty with Armenia as well, but where were they to defend Armenia?
They were involved against Armenia. Armenia is possibly the weakest country in the entire region. Armenia has no military power, let alone being a regional power. Iran is a regional power that can hurt Turkey very badly. Turkey can hurt Iran very badly too. The final outcome will be a deadly war that nothing will change after it, i.e. a second Iraq-Iran war. Turks are smart enough to know that they should not fall for that. That treaty is merely a worthless piece of paper when it involves countries like Iran or Russia.
 
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