The Ukrainians are really fighting tooth and nail to prevent the fall of Severodonetsk by any means necessary, at any cost. However last I heard the Russians control something like 70-80% of Severodonetsk with the Popasnya front/bulge still threatening the city from the rear. If Severodonetsk falls or if the Popasnya salient grows and envelops the remaining Ukrainian fighters in the city, it's essentially game over.
Even as things currently stand, Russia has 3 pincers (Izium, Lyman, Popasnya) all approximately 20-30 KM away from Kramatorsk. If Kramatorsk falls, it's all over for Ukraine, Many analysts believe that the war will be decided there, since afterwards there will be no more major settlements left to take in the Donbas. In the last few weeks we've seen the Russians slowly but surely building up their forces at Izium especially.
It seems that the Russians are building up their reserves for one decisive push towards Kramatorsk. Recently Russia sent an 11 KM convoy of reinforcements into the Donbas and the disparity in firepower between both sides is simply mind boggling. One western reporter stated that for every Ukrainian shell there are 10-20 Russian shells in response.
Just look at the disparity in firepower on the map, especially in the Donbas
Watch these foreign CIA backed mercenaries head to Severodonetsk all proud and bold. It doesn't take long for reality to hit them in the face like a ton of bricks. They're honestly lucky to have even survived. I'm guessing they're headed home after this.
The internet has recently been flooded with half a dozen or more of these videos showing Ukrainian forces, mostly territorial defense, complaining about only receiving training for days/weeks and then being sent against tanks, artillery, jets, basically impossible odds, suicide missions, in many cases with Ak-47s or machine guns from WW1 in some cases
Honestly it would make sense to use these poorly trained units to do logistics work at the rear, but sending them to the front without adequate training, weapons or leadership against overwhelming odds is just pointless. It's almost criminal. It's almost like they're just exchanging lives for time at this point. This is a sign of utter and sheer desperation on the part of the Ukrainian leadership. However just yesterday Zelensky gave another speech proclaiming that the Russians had been beat back and that Ukraine would surely win, He proudly claimed that Ukraine had liberated 8 KM from Russia in the west. So 8 km squared ? That's like 8 city blocks, so what they liberated a village ? With how fluid the situation is does that even mean anything in the grand scheme of things ?
Honestly I feel sorry for the Ukrainian people. Basically if they don't sue for peace after Donbas, Russia will go all in on Odessa and once they focus all their firepower and efforts there, it will only be a matter of time. If Ukraine gets cut off from the ocean, that will be the end of Ukraine as we know it. It will essentially be a landlocked nation, completely crippled. I mean after that Russia will likely setup strong defensive lines all over their newly acquired territory and then with superior air power, artillery, missiles, firepower, manpower and the local ethnic Russian population firmly behind Russia, how can Ukraine ever hope to liberate their territory ?
All these weapons the west keeps giving Ukraine, it's too sporadic and comes in trickles. However it never seems enough to really change the power dynamics in this conflict. I mean the Ukrainians are trying, I have to give them credit for that. They are trying but it seems that every time the west gives them some new weapons system, it makes an initial splash but then Russia simply adapts to it and that's it. First the Bayraktars were supposed to be Russia's Achilles heel, then the switchblades drones, then the M777, now it's France sending air defense systems to Ukraine and the US is set to sent HIMARS rockets and MQ-1C Grey Eagle drones.
However the problem is that these systems require weeks of training and weeks to transport. This is precious time that Ukraine does not have. At the same time, what good are a handful of these weapons systems if Russia already has similar weapons deployed which will outnumber Ukrainian assets regardless ? Like the HIMARS, Russia has missiles that are just as good with more range and they have more quantity and won't their air defenses just shoot down the rockets. The Grey Eagle drones, what will prevent Russia from shooting them down ? To make matters worse most of these systems will likely be targeted in transit, so only so many will even make it to the front anyways.
Again I have to give credit where credit is due. Ukrainians are trying, but will all their efforts be enough ? They are certainly being creative and in some ways resourceful, but will this be enough to change the balance of power on the battlefield ? I just don't think it's likely.
