Iranian Chill Thread

[Xerxes22]

The issue is IRGC is Iran’s only true force that is contract soldier like.

Artesh is mostly just conscripts who were sent to sad bazi for 18 months then discharged.

Iran’s IRGC generals have their flaws like Russians don’t carry much about protecting soldiers and will take high losses to achieve an objective. But generally they are very capable. If they were not, you couldn’t have so many successful miltias around the Middle East be developed.

Even Pentagon assessment is when it comes to building up relationships and foreign legions with cohesion...Iran ranks ahead of Russia and China in this regard.

That being said IRGC and generals are a limited quantity. Artesh needs to be Iran’s workhorse in case of defending itself in a major war.

Artesh is Iran’s weakest link, yes it has special forces units and very capable units like NOHED, but those are again limited supply and numbers. What you need is your main force of 250,000 Artesh to be competent and an effective fighting force of decently trained soldiers.



Putin himself said NATO vs Russia there is no comparison. NATO would crush Russia. But Putin made it clear nuclear weapons would be on the table in that scenario to

A) deter that type of conflict from even occurring

B) if it does occur then leveling the playing field by destroying large parts of NATO in early days of war via tactical nuclear strikes

What steps do u suggest to turn artesh into a competent fighting force ?

Mariupol is gone. Next stop Kharkov. The whole of ukraine must be annexed. To compensate for the russian lose, there can be no acceptable victory other than the total annexation of all Ukrainian territory.

Following Rob Lee on Twitter who is a very respected source in the OSINT/WAR commentator community has given many a more sobering wakeup call as to what has been happening to the Russians in Ukraine.

I can't believe I'm saying this.... but Russian MOD needs to abandon (which they already are) many vectors of attack and consolidate the breakaway regions just so they can walk away with something. If Ukrainian forces gain moment (which they have) then we can genuinely see more devastating counter-attacks against Russian forces, even in the areas with their presence is heaviest.

RuAF, ISR, Command structure, logistics, pre-war planning, strategic initiative and most important combined arms warfare. Has been a resounding failure.

They're running low on PGM's cannot risk dipping into the stocks meant for NATO targets. A point easily provable by the near immediate use of dummy-bombs by Su-34s and Su-25s early on in the conflict, fly-low...... FLYING LOW!!!!

My question here is ...i thought russia had close to a million active serviceman. Why do they not deploy 100k more ? Surely this will help secure donbass quicker ?

 

[TheImmortal]

Upgraded F-15s/F-16s would destroy the Russian Air Force. F-22s/F-35s would be overkill. US air power would be overwhelming for Russia

Most F-22’s are grounded and Air Force is already retiring some (30ish). High maintenance aircraft doubtful it could carry a high sortie workload that world war requires.

Nonetheless if airbases would get nukes, it doesn’t really matter as both sides would lose most of their fighters and airbases. It would quickly become a ground war.

That is Soviet and Russian war doctrine against NATO. Use nukes to level the playing field or risk losing Moscow.

 

[F-22Raptor]

Most F-22’s are grounded and Air Force is already retiring some (30ish). High maintenance aircraft doubtful it could carry a high sortie workload that world war requires.

Nonetheless if airbases would get nukes, it doesn’t really matter as both sides would lose most of their fighters and airbases. It would quickly become a ground war.

That is Soviet and Russian war doctrine against NATO. Use nukes to level the playing field or risk losing Moscow.

Those F-22s are being retired because they are older blocks, and that money will be spent on NGAD, which already flew in 2020. The 6th Gen follow on to F-22 is moving out faster than most expect. It’s no coincidence that 6th Gen NGAD, B-21, AIM-260 are all coming online soon. The next revolution in US air power is close at hand.

 

[TruthHurtz]

The Russians are being completely routed in the Kyiv region in their retreat the last few days. Huge losses coming in.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1509928906513653765

Ponomarenko is a notorious bullsh*tter and literal Nazi weirdo, his claims shouldn't even be taken with a grain of salt.

Following Rob Lee on Twitter who is a very respected source in the OSINT/WAR commentator community has given many a more sobering wakeup call as to what has been happening to the Russians in Ukraine.

I can't believe I'm saying this.... but Russian MOD needs to abandon (which they already are) many vectors of attack and consolidate the breakaway regions just so they can walk away with something. If Ukrainian forces gain moment (which they have) then we can genuinely see more devastating counter-attacks against Russian forces, even in the areas with their presence is heaviest.

RuAF, ISR, Command structure, logistics, pre-war planning, strategic initiative and most important combined arms warfare. Has been a resounding failure.

They're running low on PGM's cannot risk dipping into the stocks meant for NATO targets. A point easily provable by the near immediate use of dummy-bombs by Su-34s and Su-25s early on in the conflict, fly-low...... FLYING LOW!!!!

Rob Lee is rapidly discrediting himself with his cookie cutter OSINT analysis, he (and Kofman) was literally befuddled by basic airfield seizure ops in the beginning of the war, like the RUAF has some obligation to follow their DC think tank war strategy. Telegram accounts are literally all you need to follow this war and they paint a much different picture.

 

[Blue In Green]

What steps do u suggest to turn artesh into a competent fighting force ?

Mariupol is gone. Next stop Kharkov. The whole of ukraine must be annexed. To compensate for the russian lose, there can be no acceptable victory other than the total annexation of all Ukrainian territory.


My question here is ...i thought russia had close to a million active serviceman. Why do they not deploy 100k more ? Surely this will help secure donbass quicker ?

It's easy to look at theoretical and technical amounts of troops for each nation and just assume that they can call upon such numbers whenever need be, but the problem comes down to the logistics of such an undertaking.

Russia was already spreading itself quite thinly when they were bringing in literal thousands of troops and ready to use equipment from all corners of the Federation (even from Eastern defense districts). Now they're pulling men and resources from other areas (Georgia for example) just to bolster their own battle-lines against staunch Ukrainian resistance/counter-attacks. It points to there being a problem of 'ready to go' men/supplies/troops. The general consensus thus far has been that the Russian Federation already went to great lengths to muster up 200,000 soldiers for this invasion, a woefully meager number such an operation. They needed well over that amount to achieve their lofty goals and now given the set-backs they've been facing in the North. We see tactical retreats all around Kiev. It doesn't paint a good picture for Russia as asking for even more men and supplies would point to the war going badly. Public opinion in Russia might start to turn as the investment of young men going into the meat-grinder becomes less optimistic since there's already 200,000 and asking for more (conscripts potentially) could cause severe backlash.

In-short: getting the troops there, feeding them, housing them, supplying them, making sure communication is intact. All seem to be facing severe attrition on-top of Ukrainian forces conducting counter-ops on the most vulnerable parts of the supply lines, namely fuel and general supplies.

 

[TheImmortal]

Ponomarenko is a notorious bullsh*tter and literal Nazi weirdo, his claims shouldn't even be taken with a grain of salt.


Rob Lee is rapidly discrediting himself with his cookie cutter OSINT analysis, he (and Kofman) was literally befuddled by basic airfield seizure ops in the beginning of the war, like the RUAF has some obligation to follow their DC think tank war strategy. Telegram accounts are literally all you need to follow this war and they paint a much different picture.

Pomonarenko and now Rob Lee are severely biased to only talk about pro Ukraine stuff.

The former is basically propaganda.

But the Pro Russia accounts I follow admit that Kiyv was either a feint or failure and the focus is now on Donbass.

Kiyv, Sumy, and Kherson have seen Russian retreats.

 

[SalarHaqq]

The Russian Federation released new casualty figures a couple of days ago. 1351 Russian servicemen have been killed versus around 14.000 Ukrainians, in addition to 16.000 heavily injured Ukrainian troops who will not return to the battlefield.

Destruction of the Ukrainian military is staggering in scope. Another testimony to the power of the Russian armed forces, and to just how well they have performed in this special operation. If the US regime cared about avoiding damage to civilians as much as Russia in this war, chances are that the Americans would achieve less over the same period of time.

_____

Moscow offers update on casualties from Ukraine conflict​

The Russian Defense Ministry provided a rare update on the casualties the country's armed forces have suffered during the ongoing military offensive in Ukraine, on Friday.

“Unfortunately, during the special military operation there have been losses among our comrades-in-arms. To date, 1,351 servicemen have died and 3,825 have been injured,” the deputy head of the Russian General Staff, Colonel General Sergey Rudskoy told a media briefing.

The official did not provide any figures on soldiers who have potentially gone missing in action or been taken prisoner amid the conflict. The Ukrainian side has sustained heavy casualties (around 30,000) over the past month, Rudskoy clarified. According to Russian military estimates, around 14,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed, and a further 16,000 have been injured.

Ukraine’s military has sustained major losses in hardware, with nearly 1,600 tanks and other armored vehicles destroyed, he alleged, adding that the Russian offensive has largely destroyed Kiev’s air and anti-aircraft forces, while its navy has effectively ceased to exist.

https://www.rt.com/russia/552708-ukraine-conflict-military-casualties/

_____

 

[Blue In Green]

Ponomarenko is a notorious bullsh*tter and literal Nazi weirdo, his claims shouldn't even be taken with a grain of salt.


Rob Lee is rapidly discrediting himself with his cookie cutter OSINT analysis, he (and Kofman) was literally befuddled by basic airfield seizure ops in the beginning of the war, like the RUAF has some obligation to follow their DC think tank war strategy. Telegram accounts are literally all you need to follow this war and they paint a much different picture.

The videos and verified visual evidence that I've been following thus far points to the exact opposite. I don't have a dog in this fight nor do I hold any feelings of ill-will towards the Russian Federation for this war (they had their reasons).

Look.... I want to be wrong about what's happening. If all this information coming out really just is disinformation, then I will be the first one to gladly admit I was wrong about Russia's failures.

 

[Stryker1982]

Most F-22’s are grounded and Air Force is already retiring some (30ish). High maintenance aircraft doubtful it could carry a high sortie workload that world war requires.

Nonetheless if airbases would get nukes, it doesn’t really matter as both sides would lose most of their fighters and airbases. It would quickly become a ground war.

That is Soviet and Russian war doctrine against NATO. Use nukes to level the playing field or risk losing Moscow.

Upgraded F-15s/F-16s would destroy the Russian Air Force. F-22s/F-35s would be overkill. US air power would be overwhelming for Russia

Aside from the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons to degrade NATO airpower. The sortie rate from Russia is surprisingly low in this conflict. They are able to suppress the UKR airforce, but not enough to control the sky either. Finding deactivated BUKs is hard enough, but it is compounded by low numbers of UAVs and loitering munitions.

Does Russia not have any HARM-like munitions? I am not confident in Russia's air based EW capabilities if they have no been able to freely run over the front line in comparison to the capacity of a F-15EX
Russia does not even have a JDAM project to convert its munitions at low cost into PGMs to use from range. Hell, even Iran has these. And that is with a wounded airforce.

Frankly the Russian defence industry is going to be quite wounded as one would expect such a large air force would be capable of suppressing it's OWN equipment they themselves designed.

 

[Blue In Green]

The Russian Federation released new casualty figures a couple of days ago. 1351 Russian servicemen were killed versus around 14.000 Ukrainians, in addition to 16.000 heavily injured Ukrainian troops who will not return to the battlefield.

Destruction of Ukrainian is staggering in scope. Another testimony to the power of the Russian military, and to just how well the performed in this special operation. If the US regime cared about avoiding damage to civilians as much as Russia in this war, chances are that the Americans would achieve less over the same period of time.

_____

Moscow offers update on casualties from Ukraine conflict​

The Russian Defense Ministry provided a rare update on the casualties the country's armed forces have suffered during the ongoing military offensive in Ukraine, on Friday.

“Unfortunately, during the special military operation there have been losses among our comrades-in-arms. To date, 1,351 servicemen have died and 3,825 have been injured,” the deputy head of the Russian General Staff, Colonel General Sergey Rudskoy told a media briefing.

The official did not provide any figures on soldiers who have potentially gone missing in action or been taken prisoner amid the conflict. The Ukrainian side has sustained heavy casualties (around 30,000) over the past month, Rudskoy clarified. According to Russian military estimates, around 14,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed, and a further 16,000 have been injured.

Ukraine’s military has sustained major losses in hardware, with nearly 1,600 tanks and other armored vehicles destroyed, he alleged, adding that the Russian offensive has largely destroyed Kiev’s air and anti-aircraft forces, while its navy has effectively ceased to exist.

https://www.rt.com/russia/552708-ukraine-conflict-military-casualties/

_____

I have hard time reconciling these numbers brother, given the little amount of verified information we've seen come out to validate Ukrainian losses. Don't doubt it per say, but there is literal mountains of visual information to confirm staggering amounts of Russian equipment/men losses all across the theatre.

If this really is just the fog war (still), then I want to be wrong (oh boy do I want to be wrong...).

Aside from the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons to degrade NATO airpower. The sortie rate from Russia is surprisingly low in this conflict. They are able to suppress the UKR airforce, but not enough to control the sky either. Finding deactivated BUKs is hard enough, but it is compounded by low numbers of UAVs and loitering munitions.

Does Russia not have any HARM-like munitions?

I believe it was pretty much agreed upon that Russia's general PGM stock wasn't that numerous in comparison to their peers.

Air-launched PGMs and more specialized ones like HARM don't seem to be in that plentiful of supply. RUAF was using dummy bombs quite early on in the conflict as well as fly-low which means they haven't even secured the air-space in the AO (depending on the area).

 

[F-22Raptor]

Aside from the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons to degrade NATO airpower. The sortie rate from Russia is surprisingly low in this conflict. They are able to suppress the UKR airforce, but not enough to control the sky either. Finding deactivated BUKs is hard enough, but it is compounded by low numbers of UAVs and loitering munitions.

Does Russia not have any HARM-like munitions? I am not confident in Russia's air based EW capabilities if they have no been able to freely run over the front line in comparison to the capacity of a F-15EX
Russia does not even have a JDAM project to convert its munitions at low cost into PGMs to use from range. Hell, even Iran has these. And that is with a wounded airforce.

Frankly the Russian defence industry is going to be quite wounded as one would expect such a large air force would be capable of suppressing it's OWN equipment they themselves designed.

I doubt Russia would be able to get many fighters airborne anyways. The US has an inventory of 10,000+ cruise missiles. It fired 500 on Day 1 of Gulf War 2.

 

[SalarHaqq]

I have hard time reconciling these numbers brother, given the little amount of verified information we've seen come out to validate Ukrainian losses. Don't doubt it per say, but there is literal mountains of visual information to confirm staggering amounts of Russian equipment/men losses all across the theatre.

The Russians don't use the internet like westerners and their Ukrainian clients. In comparison, very few videos have been uploaded by Russian authorities and private internet users. That's because the Ukrainian side will tend to document every single casualty they inflict on Russia, whereas the Russians, being the dominant party and not functioning in the same way as the west, don't need to do this. They're men of action whilst the declining western powers (who get kicked out of Afghanistan by rag tag Taleban) are mostly talk.

So-called social media are a NATO / zionist psy-ops tool. Plus, there is heavy censorship by western regimes and associated internet companies, which further contributes to blurring the ground reality. Social media by their very nature tend to be misleading. Taken in isolation, they do not lend themselves to proper analysis. On social media, we are flooded with many bits of disconnected, often fake information and are therefore encouraged to draw unfounded conclusions based off the superficial perception that this audiovisual information generates.

Simply put, if the impression spawned by the content on the web corresponded to reality, then the Ukrainians would be driving Russian forces out of their territory, but the opposite is taking place.

This conflict will go down as perhaps the most striking demonstration so far, that the ability of modern western propaganda to literally create, generate reality has reached its limits. Emerging powers, despite being outclassed in the information war, can still be victorious against the west and its proxies. I noticed this tendency from around 2005 onward, for example with the resounding failure of the so-called Green Movement "colored revolution" attempt against the Islamic Republic of Iran. During that event the contrast between perception and facts could not have been starker. And ever since, this tendency has been accelerating to the benefit of those who resist the NATO-zionist empire.

If this really is just the fog war (still), then I want to be wrong (oh boy do I want to be wrong...).

I would say it's the fog of propaganda, rather than of war per se. And this fog is never going to dissipate, even after the collapse of the Ukrainian military and after Russian completely achieved her aims in this war.

You can attempt a test of sorts: if Russia manages to punch through Ukraine's heaviest defensive line in the Donbas, then you may retrospectively sense how misleading the propaganda and psy-ops campaign against Russian military power had actually been.

 

[jauk]

The videos and verified visual evidence that I've been following thus far points to the exact opposite. I don't have a dog in this fight nor do I hold any feelings of ill-will towards the Russian Federation for this war (they had their reasons).

Look.... I want to be wrong about what's happening. If all this information coming out really just is disinformation, then I will be the first one to gladly admit I was wrong about Russia's failures.

I a

Aside from the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons to degrade NATO airpower. The sortie rate from Russia is surprisingly low in this conflict. They are able to suppress the UKR airforce, but not enough to control the sky either. Finding deactivated BUKs is hard enough, but it is compounded by low numbers of UAVs and loitering munitions.

Does Russia not have any HARM-like munitions? I am not confident in Russia's air based EW capabilities if they have no been able to freely run over the front line in comparison to the capacity of a F-15EX
Russia does not even have a JDAM project to convert its munitions at low cost into PGMs to use from range. Hell, even Iran has these. And that is with a wounded airforce.

Frankly the Russian defence industry is going to be quite wounded as one would expect such a large air force would be capable of suppressing it's OWN equipment they themselves designed.

To reiterate, Russia is fighting on the cheap and with pause. Very successfully at that. If any of accounts are true wrt the $billions of foreign weapons injection into Ukraine, then Russia's bang for the buck is unmistakable.

 

[Blue In Green]

The Russians don't use the internet like westerners and their Ukrainian clients. In comparison, very few videos have been uploaded by Russian authorities and private internet users. That's because the Ukrainian side will tend to document every single casualty they inflict on Russia, whereas the Russians, being the dominant party and not functioning in the same way as the west, don't need to do this. They're men of action whilst the declining western powers (who get kicked out of Afghanistan by rag tag Taleban) are mostly talk.

So-called social media are a NATO / zionist psy-ops tool. Plus, there is heavy censorship by western regimes and associated websites, which further contributes to blurring the ground reality. Social media by their very nature tend to be misleading and they do not allow for proper analysis onto themselves. On social media, we are bombarded with many bits of disconnected, often fake information and are therefore encouraged to draw unfounded conclusions based off the superficial perception that this audiovisual information generates.

Simply put, if the impression generated by the content on the web corresponded to reality, then the Ukrainians would be driving Russian forces out of their territory, but the opposite is taking place.

What this war will demonstrate, is that the ability of modern western propaganda to literally create, generate reality has reached its limits. Emerging powers, despite being outclassed in the information war, can still be victorious against the west and its proxies. I noticed this tendency from around 2005 onwards, for example with the resounding failure of the so-called Green Movement "colored revolution" attempt against the Islamic Republic of Iran. The contrast between perception and facts could not have been starker. And ever since, this tendency has been accelerating to the benefit of those who resist the NATO-zionist empire.



It's the fog of propaganda, rather than of war per se. And this fog is never going to be lifted, even after the collapse of the Ukrainian military and after Russian completely achieved her aims in this war.

You can do a test of sorts: if Russia manages to punch through Ukraine's heaviest defensive line in the Donbas, then you may retrospectively sense how misleading the propaganda and psy-ops campaign against Russian military power had really been.

Much appreciated and welcomed for the clarification Salar-jan! (On a separate note).

I thank god everyday for the progress Iran's domestic military industry has made to make sure the country is safe and doesn't fall into these sort of trappings that other nations seem to always get caught up in... PGMs, drones, radars, AD, command/communication: none of it is an issue for Iran currently and this is where it counts in todays battlefield.

Hopefully we will see our men be outfitted with better gear and switched from a conscript based model to a payed professional model as our own TheImmortal correctly mentioned earlier!

IRGC has paved the way for Iranian sovereignty and continued freedom/independence for the foreseeable future. So much sacrifice has resoundingly payed off....

If only Shaheed Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam were here to see the fruits of his and his teams efforts... I'm glad Hajizadeh is his successor (?).

I think this decade we will see many more great things come out of both the IRGC and Artesh (hopefully).

 

[TheImmortal]

I doubt Russia would be able to get many fighters airborne anyways. The US has an inventory of 10,000+ cruise missiles. It fired 500 on Day 1 of Gulf War 2.

At least 20-25% US CMs fail in flight. Russian numbers are even worse. Iranian missiles (old gen) around 30%

10,000 (7,000) wouldn’t last long considering the size of the conflict . Russia has fired over 1200 so far in a little over a month.

Hence why WW3 will be a ground game and a nuke game. Everything else will be destroyed or expended.