Iranian Chill Thread

[F-22Raptor]

At least 20-25% US CMs fail in flight. Russian numbers are even worse. Iranian missiles (old gen) around 30%

10,000 (7,000) wouldn’t last long considering the size of the conflict . Russia has fired over 1200 so far in a little over a month.

Hence why WW3 will be a ground game and a nuke game. Everything else will be destroyed or expended.

I’ve never seen US cruise missiles fail at that rate. Never

The US also has several hundred thousand precision guided bombs.

And they’re vastly expanding their long range ground based fires as well. The Army will purchase up to 4,000 Precision Strike missiles. 250 which have already been procured.

The Army will also purchase 3 batteries of Long Range Hypersonic Weapons and 4 Typhon batteries of Tomahawk/SM-6 missiles over the next 5 years.


It’s all relative. The US has far more capability than any other military on the planet. And deliver it in mass.

 

[F-22Raptor]

At least 20-25% US CMs fail in flight. Russian numbers are even worse. Iranian missiles (old gen) around 30%

10,000 (7,000) wouldn’t last long considering the size of the conflict . Russia has fired over 1200 so far in a little over a month.

Hence why WW3 will be a ground game and a nuke game. Everything else will be destroyed or expended.

The US is also expanding its JASSM stealth cruise missile inventory from currently 4,000 up to 10,000. It’s being procured at max capacity of almost 600 a year. I expect US cruise and ballistic missile inventories to approach 20,000 in a decade.

 

[Blue In Green]

At least 20-25% US CMs fail in flight. Russian numbers are even worse. Iranian missiles (old gen) around 30%

10,000 (7,000) wouldn’t last long considering the size of the conflict . Russia has fired over 1200 so far in a little over a month.

Hence why WW3 will be a ground game and a nuke game. Everything else will be destroyed or expended.

I wonder if Iran can one day reach the multiple Tens of Thousands range for PGMs as a whole not just ballistic missiles.

Seems doable in the next couple decades (another several thousand will be added this decade alone) if domestic production keeps ramping up year-on-year. Would be considerably cheaper too given that the price of comparable Iranian made weapons are lower in general.

 

[TheImmortal]

I’ve never seen US cruise missiles fail at that rate. Never

The latest data we have is the US admitting that the Syrian airbase strike under Trump was 85% success rate. Given that’s the government number the real success rate is lower (Russia claimed 38% during that strike). So I would say both numbers are outliers and truth is somewhere in between. Also remember Syrian air defenses are next to nothing.

It’s all relative. The US has far more capability than any other military on the planet. And deliver it in mass.

I would hope spending close to $850B a year would mean you have more capability than any other military on the planet. In comparison Russian military budget is 65B and who knows how much of that actually goes to military spending

The US is also expanding its JASSM stealth cruise missile inventory from currently 4,000 up to 10,000. It’s being procured at max capacity of almost 600 a year. I expect US cruise and ballistic missile inventories to approach 20,000 in a decade.

Again those missiles have to be brought to the theater (Europe) and when airfields are nuked and large military bases (nuked) and warship battle fleets (nuked).

Where are you going to hide those CMs? Many will get destroyed during transit and storage, just ask Iran moving theirs to Syria destined for Hezbollah.

US (and NATO) will still have more conventional firepower left than Russia, but wars get won on the ground. This one will be no different.

The bad situation for NATO/US is during this conflict, China will make its move on Taiwan and force US to divert resources (and whatever CMs/BMs/fighter jets survive) to Asian theater.


So like I said, it’s gonna be a war that will come to troops on the ground and who can eliminate the other’s assets with nukes the fastest.

 

[SalarHaqq]

I thank god everyday for the progress Iran's domestic military industry has made to make sure the country is safe and doesn't fall into these sort of trappings that other nations seem to always get caught up in... PGMs, drones, radars, AD, command/communication: none of it is an issue for Iran currently and this is where it counts in todays battlefield.

That's thanks to the ingenuity of Iranian military planners including Iran's commander in chief Supreme Leader Khamenei, who inspired his subordinates with his ideas and with his general understanding of an effective avenue towards development for Iran, given the specificity of the country's characteristics and its geopolitical situation. The entire belief in self-sufficiency and the asymmetric doctrine based on cost-effectiveness and making use of one's own strengths against the enemy's weaknesses, directly stem from and bear the mark of Imam Khamenei's religious-ideological persuasions - and Imam Khomeini's before him.

Hopefully we will see our men be outfitted with better gear and switched from a conscript based model to a payed professional model as our own TheImmortal correctly mentioned earlier!

In my opinion, we need three formations: a corps as effective as a professional career military - but fully dedicated to and motivated by its religious beliefs nonetheless; a large volunteer paramilitary force; as well a conscript army. Each of these will address a different set of challenges and serve different purposes. In this way, maximum use will be made of Iran's resources for the defence of Islam and the motherland. Basically, this is the pattern Iran is actually following, with the exception that there is no paid professional army in the formal sense.

When it comes to gear, we've in fact been witnessing a steady improvement in the equipment of ground forces since the late 2010's. Kevlar helmets and body armor, modernized infantry weapons, accessories (like night vision equipment and other scopes) and so on, which Iran had shown prototypes of before, are slowly being distributed among more and more units. It's logical, since Iran first invested in areas of priority such as missiles, drones, AD and certain naval assets. Once these were stocked up sufficiently, other areas could be attended to.

If only Shaheed Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam were here to see the fruits of his and his teams efforts... I'm glad Hajizadeh is his successor (?).

Please also pray for all shohada who consented to the ultimate sacrifice in the path of God, which allowed the Resistance to disrupt the plots of oppressors.

For those interested in the question whether martyrs actually need our prayers, considering the elevated status they enjoy as per the Quran, here's a reply:
http://www.porsemanequran.com/content/فاتحه-برای-شهداء

It explains that praying for the martyrs, much like sending salavat for the Prophet (s) not only has savab, but also contributes to elevating the position of these greats even more.

 

[F-22Raptor]

The latest data we have is the US admitting that the Syrian airbase strike under Trump was 85% success rate. Given that’s the government number the real success rate is lower (Russia claimed 38% during that strike). So I would say both numbers are outliers and truth is somewhere in between. Also remember Syrian air defenses are next to nothing.



I would hope spending close to $850B a year would mean you have more capability than any other military on the planet. In comparison Russian military budget is 65B and who knows how much of that actually goes to military spending



Again those missiles have to be brought to the theater (Europe) and when airfields are nuked and large military bases (nuked) and warship battle fleets (nuked).

Where are you going to hide those CMs? Many will get destroyed during transit and storage, just ask Iran moving theirs to Syria destined for Hezbollah.

US (and NATO) will still have more conventional firepower left than Russia, but wars get won on the ground. This one will be no different.

The bad situation for NATO/US is during this conflict, China will make its move on Taiwan and force US to divert resources (and whatever CMs/BMs/fighter jets survive) to Asian theater.


So like I said, it’s gonna be a war that will come to troops on the ground and who can eliminate the other’s assets with nukes the fastest.

Again, I’ve never seen US cruise missiles fail at that rate. 10% at most

No other military can find and fix targets and deliver PGMs at the mass and rate the US can. After degrading enemy A2AD, the US will begin using the several hundred thousands of guided bombs at its disposal.

 

[Stryker1982]

Gotta take it for what its worth. This assistance package is quite lethal on its own. Most countries barely have this capacity and this is what they can offer for free in mass.

 

[Blue In Green]

That's thanks to the ingenuity of Iranian military planners including Iran's commander in chief Supreme Leader Khamenei, who inspired his subordinates with his ideas and with his general understanding of an effective avenue towards development for Iran, given the specificity of the country's characteristics and its geopolitical situation. The entire belief in self-sufficiency and the asymmetric doctrine based on cost-effectiveness and making use of one's own strengths against the enemy's weaknesses, directly stem from and bear the mark of Imam Khamenei's (and Imam Khomeini's before him) religious-ideological persuasions.



In my opinion, we need three formations: a corps modeled after professional career military - but fully dedicated to and motivated by its religious beliefs nonetheless; a large volunteer paramilitary force; as well a conscript army. Each of these will address a different set of challenges. In this way, maximum use will be made of Iran's resources for the defence of Islam and the motherland. Basically, this is the pattern Iran is actually following, with the exception that there is no paid professional army in the formal sense.

When it comes to gear, we've in fact been witnessing a steady improvement in the equipment of ground forces since the late 2010's. Kevlar helmets and body armor, more modern infantry weapons, accessories etc which Iran had shown prototypes of before, are slowly being distributed to more and more units. It's logical, since Iran first invested in areas of priority such as missiles, drones, AD and certain navy assets. Once these were stocked up sufficiently, other areas could be attended to.



Please also pray for all shohada who consented to the ultimate sacrifice in the path of God, which has made Iran safe and disrupted the plots of oppressors.

I will continue to pray for the well-being of the world and our beloved Iranian homeland.... thank you for the kind words and optimism Salar-jan!!

View attachment 829505

Gotta take it for what its worth. This assistance package is quite lethal on its own. Most countries barely have this capacity and this is what they can offer for free in mass.

It'll be a substantial boost to operational capabilities of Ukrainian forces on the ground. I'd imagine that lots of SOF units will be popping amongst the ranks of UKR-forces.

 

[TheImmortal]

Again, I’ve never seen US cruise missiles fail at that rate. 10% at most

No other military can find and fix targets and deliver PGMs at the mass and rate the US can. After degrading enemy A2AD, the US will begin using the several hundred thousands of guided bombs at its disposal.

Because the definition pentagon uses for “success” is much more liberal. And it’s all militaries that do this not confined to US. But you can be assured Tomahawks fail at least 15% clip with the number being higher.

To me that’s still very good. You are mass producing a missile so bad apples will def happen vs PGM where the worst thing that happens is the missile hits the target and doesn’t explode.

Bombs wont win the war on the ground. Case in point look at Afghanistan or Ukraine. Russia is dropping bombs left and right, yes not the extent that US can but the front lines don’t really budge from bombs in absence of troops.

And again you are forgetting that to drop those bombs using an F-16 or F-35 you need airbases....airbases which will be radioactive and completely destroyed from tactical nukes. So sortie count will be much lower than you are envisioning.

It’s not a war I wish on the world, but it is war that is likely to come as NATO/US continue to push for a one polar world order.

Listen to this from Biden’s speech in Europe just recently in March.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506045438218194948

 

[TheImmortal]

View attachment 829505

Gotta take it for what its worth. This assistance package is quite lethal on its own. Most countries barely have this capacity and this is what they can offer for free in mass.

Not free they are basically fighting and draining an enemy on behalf of NATO...that is priceless. Plus a lot of these stocks need to be used up as they nearing end of shelf life. And the arms industry is pushing they be used so the militaries have to place new orders.

The military industrial complex is extremely happy for all the profits this will generate.

This is puma drone

 

[F-22Raptor]

I will continue to pray for the well-being of the world and our beloved Iranian homeland.... thank you for the kind words and optimism Salar-jan!!


It'll be a substantial boost the operational capabilities of Ukrainian forces on the ground. I'd imagine that lots of SOF units will be popping amongst the ranks of UKR-forces.

Not free they are basically fighting and draining an enemy on behalf of NATO...that is priceless. Plus a lot of these stocks need to be used up as they nearing end of shelf life. And the arms industry is pushing they be used so the militaries have to place new orders.

The military industrial complex is extremely happy for all the profits this will generate.

This is puma drone

View attachment 829510

WASHINGTON — The Biden administration will work with allies to transfer Soviet-made tanks to bolster Ukrainian defenses in the country’s eastern Donbas region, a U.S. official said on Friday.

The decision to act as an intermediary to help transfer the Soviet-made tanks, which Ukrainian troops know how to use, comes in response to a request from President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, the official said. It marks the first time in the war that the United States has helped transfer tanks.

The official said the transfers would begin soon, but declined to say how many tanks would be sent, or from which countries they would come. They will allow Ukraine to conduct long-range artillery strikes on Russian targets in Donbas, said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

The tanks’ arrival could be another signal of a new phase in the war, which is five weeks old and has been dominated by Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities and installations from the air, and a stalled Russian advance on the ground. Earlier this week, Russian officials indicated that they were refocusing their efforts on eastern Ukraine, where Russian-backed separatists have been fighting Ukrainian soldiers since 2014.

U.S. Will Help Transfer Soviet-Made Tanks to Ukraine (Published 2022)

The transfer, a response to a request from Ukraine’s president, will mark the first time the Biden administration has helped send tanks in the five-week-old war.

www.nytimes.com

And now Ukraine will be getting new tanks as well

 

[TheImmortal]

WASHINGTON — The Biden administration will work with allies to transfer Soviet-made tanks to bolster Ukrainian defenses in the country’s eastern Donbas region, a U.S. official said on Friday.

The decision to act as an intermediary to help transfer the Soviet-made tanks, which Ukrainian troops know how to use, comes in response to a request from President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, the official said. It marks the first time in the war that the United States has helped transfer tanks.

The official said the transfers would begin soon, but declined to say how many tanks would be sent, or from which countries they would come. They will allow Ukraine to conduct long-range artillery strikes on Russian targets in Donbas, said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

The tanks’ arrival could be another signal of a new phase in the war, which is five weeks old and has been dominated by Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities and installations from the air, and a stalled Russian advance on the ground. Earlier this week, Russian officials indicated that they were refocusing their efforts on eastern Ukraine, where Russian-backed separatists have been fighting Ukrainian soldiers since 2014.

U.S. Will Help Transfer Soviet-Made Tanks to Ukraine (Published 2022)

The transfer, a response to a request from Ukraine’s president, will mark the first time the Biden administration has helped send tanks in the five-week-old war.

www.nytimes.com

And now Ukraine will be getting new tanks as well

They aren’t tanks. They are Cold War era IFVs.

Better than nothing I suppose.

 

[Xerxes22]

It's easy to look at theoretical and technical amounts of troops for each nation and just assume that they can call upon such numbers whenever need be, but the problem comes down to the logistics of such an undertaking.

Russia was already spreading itself quite thinly when they were bringing in literal thousands of troops and ready to use equipment from all corners of the Federation (even from Eastern defense districts). Now they're pulling men and resources from other areas (Georgia for example) just to bolster their own battle-lines against staunch Ukrainian resistance/counter-attacks. It points to there being a problem of 'ready to go' men/supplies/troops. The general consensus thus far has been that the Russian Federation already went to great lengths to muster up 200,000 soldiers for this invasion, a woefully meager number such an operation. They needed well over that amount to achieve their lofty goals and now given the set-backs they've been facing in the North. We see tactical retreats all around Kiev. It doesn't paint a good picture for Russia as asking for even more men and supplies would point to the war going badly. Public opinion in Russia might start to turn as the investment of young men going into the meat-grinder becomes less optimistic since there's already 200,000 and asking for more (conscripts potentially) could cause severe backlash.

In-short: getting the troops there, feeding them, housing them, supplying them, making sure communication is intact. All seem to be facing severe attrition on-top of Ukrainian forces conducting counter-ops on the most vulnerable parts of the supply lines, namely fuel and general supplies.

I just dont understand. How can a so called super power such as russia can not even muster 500k for an invasion. It is such a shame. As i said before, it not good when military expertise and battle strategy is taken from the hands of the military men unto the hands of political leaders in this instance Vlad Putin.

Its so very obvious that the Russian generals struggle to discuss battle tactics with putin honestly because of fear. Or sumone wudve told him "forget about no civilian casualty, if we are serious about a quick victory civilians will lose lives" they wud also tell him ukrainian forces are heavily entrenched in fortified position and it will be a tough battle.

The reason why hitler lost his army in stalingrad was because him and Göring thought they know more about military matters than his talented german generals. They thought they cud resupply by air and ended up losing the whole war because hitler thought being a dictator and being Alexander or Julias Ceasar are the same. No its not. They were military leaders before they were polticians.

Men like Caesar and Alexander achieved wat they did because they were always honest in their battle assesment. But who will tell putin "vlad dont have our troops sitting next to the border for months while giving ukraine time to get armed with javelins and repositions their troops to strategic locations". No they waited and waited and waited even though they were well set to attack way before.

No one told him either that there need to be week long extensive aerial bombardment before moving the troops in. Its total shambles nothing more. Im darn certain Iran wud have made way more progress against ukraine than russians.

 

[Messerschmitt]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1509963080830226435

 

[jauk]

I wonder if Iran can one day reach the multiple Tens of Thousands range for PGMs as a whole not just ballistic missiles.

Seems doable in the next couple decades (another several thousand will be added this decade alone) if domestic production keeps ramping up year-on-year. Would be considerably cheaper too given that the price of comparable Iranian made weapons are lower in general.

Being the idealist, any country’s future that is saturated with guns and bombs is a dim future. Hopefully Iran’s future is is one of progress, wealth, and justice and a true bright light for all to gravitate to and devoid of this stuff.