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Iranian Chill Thread

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اینها همه نوسان ه و قابل استفاده
من دارم دوباره کمکم در این ترس وارد میشم
اما ترس هنوز زیاد نیست

اگر در نظرت قیمت عادلانه بیت کوین کمه باید اصلا وارد نشی
چون میشه پانزی اسکم

مهم نیست کف کجاست و امسال چی میشه
مهم چند سال دیگه است

اگر اصلا نخری و بگی پایینتر میاد اصلا وارد بازار نمیشی

نمیشه گفت کف دقیق کجاست باید میانگین اضافه کرد

Oil is going towards 115, Nasdaq will suffer and if BTC follows it then you may get 25-29 k.

Drive is weak.

63BDC6BE-185A-4F96-A7C5-72B5694DD045.jpeg


Left shoulder in the make
 
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Market could not handle feds plus Ukraine

Macro trend is still very bullish

I think resolution in 3 months depending on Russia and not feds
 
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From what I've read, the terms of the new agreement will include more stringent verification measures for both sides, to make sure both sides are strictly abiding by the terms of the deal to the letter. Supposedly, also as part of the terms, if any future US administration violates the deal, Iran will be legally allowed to enrich Uranium up to 60% purity.

In my opinion, Iran needs to quickly digitize and encrypt their currency. After that Iran needs to establish some sort of external banking institution that transfers funds using Iran's SWIFT equivalent, SEPAM and establish branches in key locations, predominantly focusing on Europe / Asia.

These intra-Iran-EU-Asian financial institutions should be established after the deal as another safety net for Iran, so that medium and smaller institutions trading with Iran will feel secure regardless of what any future US president wants to do.
Indeed. The key point is that Iran needs to build its own banking system and integrate it with Russia, China, Venezuela, Cuba, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, you name it. However, this hugely depends on the willingness of the aforementioned countries to join this network. The Ukraine-Russia standoff is like a once in a lifetime opportunity for Iran to benefit from a Russia that is hostile to the West. If the Westerners go ahead with their plans to strangle the Russian economy, this could become a reality. However, I think they will throw Ukraine under the bus and call it a day.

The 60% enrichment is not a good strategy. In short term, it is a good strategy and it did send a signal to other parties. But in long term, it can in fact turn into a burden for Iran. I mean if Iran doesn't intend to build nukes, what good is 60%-enriched uranium for us? What civilian application can Iran find for 60% enriched uranium? Nuclear submarines? We'e not there yet and Ali Akbar Salehi said that we'll probably not get there until 2030. So, what could we do with our stockpile of 60% enriched uranium? Well, nothing. If the JCPOA gets restored, we'll have to dilute it down to 3.5% which means that huge money will be flushed down the toilet. Even if the JCPOA doesn't get restored but we don't want to build nukes, it's still money wasted on something useless because at best, we'll have to dilute it down to 20%. So, we spent money on an energy intensive process that has to be reverted unless we want to produce nukes.

However, if we instead enrich uranium to 20%, we can stockpile it and not only reduce our breakout time greatly, but we can later use it for production of medical isotopes at the Tehran Research Reactor. The difference between 20% and 60% for reducing the breakout time is not much to justify its huge energy and political costs.

Again, Iran needs a master plan to know what it wants to do with its nuclear program. Do we want a civilian program? Fine. Then we need to ramp up uranium enrichment and forget about the JCPOA completely because the JCPOA directly targets our independence to produce the nuclear fuel required for our development plans. Do we want a nuclear weapons program? Fine, then we need to leave the NPT and build the bomb and start working on miniaturization and thermonuclear weapons and return at the negotiating table only to give guarantees that we won't build more nukes or more powerful nukes and we won't share our knowledge or weapons with others. Either way, the decision makers have to make a really tough decision soon or else, we'll remain confused and stuck in a situation that wastes our resources for achieving nothing.
 
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Putin ready to "DE-COMMUNIZE" Ukraine. Putin states that the boundaries of modern Ukraine were created by Vladimir Lenin. He states that this can be confirmed by inspecting various documents in historically relevant archives.

He goes on to say that despite the Bolsheviks handing over large chunks of land to Ukraine, the Ukrainians today are ungrateful and want to tear down Lenin's statues. Putin says "Why stop half way ?" in regards to "DE-Communization" Putin concludes that he will show Ukraine what real de-Communization looks like.

My guess is that Putin, after moving troops into the 1/3rd of Donbas currently controlled by pro-Russian separatists, will then go ahead and take the rest of the 2/3rds of Donbas currently in the hands of Ukraine's central government. Putin has already warned the Ukrainian government to cease shelling and fighting.

I'm not sure if Putin will actually try and occupy all of Ukraine, including Kiev. I believe that he will take this one step at a time and react based on results on the ground, which is the most pragmatic-prudent way to move forward on this matter for Russia. Basically the liquidation of Ukraine as a sovereign nation state is a very real prospect going forward.

So what are Russia/Putin's goals in this conflict going forward ?

1) Take back all majority Russian speaking areas (Crimea/Donbas) and integrate them into mother Russia.

2) Eliminate any perceived threats in Ukraine (direct or otherwise) to Russia.

a) This includes the potential for Ukraine to join NATO, which will now become impossible since NATO will never bring any nation with unresolved border/territorial issues into the fold. This is what happened to Georgia.

b) This also includes NATO providing Ukraine with weapons and training in order to counter Russia. The question is, how will Russia move forward in this regard ? Will Russia target Ukrainian weapons stockpiles provided by NATO ? Will Russia target specific Ukrainian military sites in order to cripple or significantly weaken the Ukrainian military so that it cannot threaten Russia in the future ?

Also could these Russian actions in Ukraine, which could include limited military operations, be perceived as a humiliating defeat and then lead to protests in Ukraine which then might ultimately lead to a new government being formed perhaps more friendly towards Russia ?

 
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while also maintaing the largest debt on record, debt to GDP ratio is over 100%, and you and i know US is too broke to pay it all back. US isnt in a healthy situation economically.

We do - other national currencies and cryptos, you're talking like we're in 1999. US dollar is inherently weak, and its showing its worth, sorry worthlessness these days via inflation records USD IS NOT HEALTHY!

Lol...global financial banks are using more yuan, more national reserves hold more yuan, local currencies are being increased, yo're oversimplifying hold of USD, even Russia has dumped most USD and China buys less US treasuries, are you in denial that China has hanged the global commerce game? CUZ IT HAS! CHina is alreay richer than US, thats why US has over $30bn monthly trade deficit with China - we need CHina more than they need us, that must've changed the world already, if you're realistic that is.

US collapse wont take any 100s of years. give it 10 years. US FOR CRIST SAKES HAD AN INSURRECTION!!! we lmost lost our gov less than 2 years ago....i think you're info is outdated, not a personal attack. things are way different today.

1) US debt is largely owed to itself. As long as dollar dominates the world the debt can gets kicked down the road. China also has a growing debt problem and private debt problem (shadow lending and Evergrande ring a bell?), but of course you don’t mention that.

2) crypto is still in its infancy and way to volatile to be a reserve currency. Even stablecoins are in their infancy.

3) you don’t post facts, you post twisted opinions borderlining on propaganda regarding FX reserves. Here are the facts:

2020 FX reserves

1645641191640.jpeg


China isn’t even CLOSE to being a significant reserve currency of banks (making up less than 2%). Where’s as USD-EURO-GBP-Yen alliance makes up over 92% of FX reserve currency around the world

4) US insurrection was mostly a riot that got out of hand. US was under zero risk of a coup from Trump. The US Generals would never back Trump and were actually under orders to ignore anything he said and he would have been arrested if he tried to stage a coup and not transfer power in January.

You are going to need a lot more than a few thousand deranged mentally unstable rioters to overthrow the government that has backing of police force and national guard. US collapsing in 10 years is nonsense propaganda. If Assad can survive a jihadi world invasion and Iran can survive the green revolution then US can survive a riot.

People forget how volatile US politics and society was from 1900-1990.
 
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You're right but it's ALOT easier and faster to go from 60% to 90% than it is from 2.5% to 90%. Iran will also be able to build dozens of nuclear power plants legally according to international law. US will lose any credibility left on the international stage regarding this issue. It's still better than nothing, alot better. If this deal goes through we will likely see Iran's economy boom for a few years.

People say that Iran is not a democracy and it's not according to western liberal standards. However it is some sort of democracy blended with religion. Think about it, in Iran the vast majority seem to want to return to the nuclear deal and despite Raisi himself having severe reservations regarding this issue, he still wants to go ahead with rejoining the deal. Why ? Well because that is what the majority in Iran want and the government has to be atleast somewhat responsive to the peoples needs and desires.

I just hope that this time, they're actually prepared when the US leaves. I believe they should be, but they really can't just establish ties with the west where western companies have all the leverage. That doesn't make any sense.

If western corporations want to come into Iran and profit in Iran, their stance regarding potential US sanctions needs to be made clear and Iran needs an extremely comprehensive contingency plan regarding the steps that must be taken by both sides should another issue arise. This problem that we're seeing now with these Korean funds should have never gotten this far.

Companies that want to come into Iran, they must imo put down some sort of safety net deposit or give Iran some kind of guarantee/benefit, so that if they leave in a few years time, Iran will have received some sort of net reward from this transaction and won't just be left in the bitter cold with empty hands.

Indeed. The key point is that Iran needs to build its own banking system and integrate it with Russia, China, Venezuela, Cuba, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, you name it. However, this hugely depends on the willingness of the aforementioned countries to join this network. The Ukraine-Russia standoff is like a once in a lifetime opportunity for Iran to benefit from a Russia that is hostile to the West. If the Westerners go ahead with their plans to strangle the Russian economy, this could become a reality. However, I think they will throw Ukraine under the bus and call it a day.

The 60% enrichment is not a good strategy. In short term, it is a good strategy and it did send a signal to other parties. But in long term, it can in fact turn into a burden for Iran. I mean if Iran doesn't intend to build nukes, what good is 60%-enriched uranium for us? What civilian application can Iran find for 60% enriched uranium? Nuclear submarines? We'e not there yet and Ali Akbar Salehi said that we'll probably not get there until 2030. So, what could we do with our stockpile of 60% enriched uranium? Well, nothing. If the JCPOA gets restored, we'll have to dilute it down to 3.5% which means that huge money will be flushed down the toilet. Even if the JCPOA doesn't get restored but we don't want to build nukes, it's still money wasted on something useless because at best, we'll have to dilute it down to 20%. So, we spent money on an energy intensive process that has to be reverted unless we want to produce nukes.

However, if we instead enrich uranium to 20%, we can stockpile it and not only reduce our breakout time greatly, but we can later use it for production of medical isotopes at the Tehran Research Reactor. The difference between 20% and 60% for reducing the breakout time is not much to justify its huge energy and political costs.

Again, Iran needs a master plan to know what it wants to do with its nuclear program. Do we want a civilian program? Fine. Then we need to ramp up uranium enrichment and forget about the JCPOA completely because the JCPOA directly targets our independence to produce the nuclear fuel required for our development plans. Do we want a nuclear weapons program? Fine, then we need to leave the NPT and build the bomb and start working on miniaturization and thermonuclear weapons and return at the negotiating table only to give guarantees that we won't build more nukes or more powerful nukes and we won't share our knowledge or weapons with others. Either way, the decision makers have to make a really tough decision soon or else, we'll remain confused and stuck in a situation that wastes our resources for achieving nothing.
 
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You're right but it's ALOT easier and faster to go from 60% to 90% than it is from 2.5% to 90%. Iran will also be able to build dozens of nuclear power plants legally according to international law. US will lose any credibility left on the international stage regarding this issue. It's still better than nothing, alot better. If this deal goes through we will likely see Iran's economy boom for a few years.

People say that Iran is not a democracy and it's not according to western liberal standards. However it is some sort of democracy blended with religion. Think about it, in Iran the vast majority seem to want to return to the nuclear deal and despite Raisi himself having severe reservations regarding this issue, he still wants to go ahead with rejoining the deal. Why ? Well because that is what the majority in Iran want and the government has to be atleast somewhat responsive to the peoples needs and desires.

I just hope that this time, they're actually prepared when the US leaves. I believe they should be, but they really can't just establish ties with the west where western companies have all the leverage. That doesn't make any sense.

If western corporations want to come into Iran and profit in Iran, their stance regarding potential US sanctions needs to be made clear and Iran needs an extremely comprehensive contingency plan regarding the steps that must be taken by both sides should another issue arise. This problem that we're seeing now with these Korean funds should have never gotten this far.

Companies that want to come into Iran, they must imo put down some sort of safety net deposit or give Iran some kind of guarantee/benefit, so that if they leave in a few years time, Iran will have received some sort of net reward from this transaction and won't just be left in the bitter cold with empty hands.
Yes, there's a significant gap for going from 3.5% to 60%. I mean if your end goal is 90% enrichment, at 3.5% you have already passed about 60% of the path to 90% enrichment. At 20%, you have passed about 84% of the path. At 60%, you have passed almost 95% of the path. The point is that we are assuming that the end goal is stockpiling enough fissile material for nuclear bombs. As per Khamenei, and current public evidence and the ongoing negotiations with P5+1, this doesn't seem to be the case. So, we're back to my original point that this extra 11% is not really worth it if Iran does not intend to go overtly nuclear. We'll have to dilute it down or send it abroad. It can be used as a leverage in negotiations for a short period, but if negotiations are extended for a long time, it will lose its value and will become a burden. 60% enrichment is useful only if there's a credible threat that Iran will go nuclear if they do not stop their unlawful sanctions. Unfortunately, there are people in the system who go completely against logic and science and come up with really stupid stuff like Iran does not need this, Iran does not need that. The truth is that Iran's nuclear program at its existing state is extremely damaging for Iran's short-term and long-term interests and we need to get out of this situation fast and as soon as possible. I personally suggest that Iran chooses the same path that Pakistan chose, but the political willingness doesn't seem to be there.

Honestly, if they decide to disassemble the centrifuges or send our enriched uranium abroad, it will be a huge disappointment. Returning to the JCPOA can set back Iran's nuclear program for another 10 years.

When the JCPOA was signed years ago, I always argued that Iran's nuclear program was set back for about 10 years. As of today in 2022, I have been proven to be correct. If they start to disassemble IR-2m, IR-4 and IR-6 centrifuges and send our excess of uranium and heavy water abroad, you can say goodbye to even this insignificant nuclear program for at least another 5 years, assuming that Raeesi has a different mindset than Rouhani.

The danger is real unfortunately. I do not think it is because of public demand. Public demand is ignored easily when it comes to other matters like compulsory hijab, allowing women to enter sports stadiums, or even recently the internet! So, it's not really about public demand. It is about a particular part of the regime that prefers to maintain good relations with world powers to ensure their own safety over our national interests.
 
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Wonder what the target was, trying to take out UAVs in bulk or after something in particular?

Likely the storage area or manufacturing area.
More of a send a message type attack.

These UAVs while they are LO are not very sophisticated and made with lower quality components on purpose and given to various militias in Iraq and Syria.
 
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Storing Oil on sea ended up a bless for Iran. Now they sell and no one prevents them in this market. Now it is way more lucrative.

They want them to sell it in the black market.
 
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So, it's not really about public demand. It is about a particular part of the regime that prefers to maintain good relations with world powers to ensure their own safety over our national interests.

There's nothing world powers can do that will not compromise first and foremost Iran's national interests and the welfare of Iranian people at large, before it may affect any of the leading political decision makers from the revolutionary core of the system at a personal level.
 
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There's nothing world powers can do that will not compromise first and foremost Iran's national interests as welfare of the Iranian people at large, before it may affect any of the leading political decision makers from the revolutionary core of the system at a personal level.
I'm not sure if I understood your answer correctly, but we know for a fact that the families of several high ranking authorities in Iran either live abroad (in countries where they claim are under the control of Zionism) or have strong business ties with them. When your family lives in the US or the UK, or you have strong business ties with the UAE, you are more likely to choose your personal interests over national interests.
 
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I'm not sure if I understood your answer correctly, but we know for a fact that the families of several high ranking authorities in Iran either live abroad (in countries where they claim are under the control of Zionism) or have strong business ties with them. When your family lives in the US or the UK, or you have strong business ties with the UAE, you are more likely to choose your personal interests over national interests.

This mostly applies to politicians outside the revolutionary core of the system. In particular reformists and moderates, as well as the so-called pragmatic ones among the principlists, such as the Larijanis. The latter are being gradually neutered or sidelined (Guardian Council's refusal to allow Ali Larijani to run at the 2021 presidential election and Larijani's open letter implicitly asking for clarification about his future role in politics, removal of Sadeq Larijani as head of the Judiciary and prison sentence for his aide), while the former aren't currently in charge and thus have no impact on strategic decision making. The Supreme Leader, the IRGC top brass and other key revolutionary forces on the other hand do not have any business or other personal interests in the west.
 
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This mostly applies to politicians outside the revolutionary core of the system. In particular, reformists and moderates, as well as the so-called pragmatic ones among the principlists, such as the Larijanis. The latter are in the process of being politically neutered or sidelined (Guardian Council's refusal to allow Ali Larijani to run at the 2021 presidential election and Larijani's open letter implicitly asking for clarification about his future role in politics), while the former aren't currently in charge and have therefore no impact on strategic decision making. The Supreme Leader, the IRGC top brass and other key revolutionary forces however, have no business or other personal interests in the west.
Do you remember the fate of Mohsen Rezaee's son? Do you remember how he was deceived or gulled by anti-Iran people abroad? He was murdered in Dubai and Mohsen Rezaee has confirmed this. And Mohsen Rezaee has always been one of the key figures in the IRGC.

What about Haddad Adel? He is part of the revolutionary core of the system. Isn't he? His son in law is an Iranian-American. He couldn't speak Farsi before he moved back to Iran.

Yeah. Rafsanjani, Khatami, Larijani, Rouhani, they all have extensive ties with abroad. Maybe Ghalibaf too. I do not know to what extent this applies to other figures in the system, but I know for a fact that many people within the system have business and familial ties with abroad. This makes them prone to making decisions that may not be in Iran's best interests. I believe the JCPOA is partly due to this conflict of interests, as well as other factors.

We need to wait out the JCPOA unfortunately, but I really expected our negotiators after the Rouhani administration do a much better job. I am disappointed by what I hear about the negotiations.
 
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why is PDF doing a poor job of keeping us updated on the Russia-Ukraine conflict? smfh.
 
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