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Iranian Chill Thread

We need to wait out the JCPOA unfortunately, but I really expected our negotiators after the Rouhani administration do a much better job. I am disappointed by what I hear about the negotiations.

I tried telling people this.

It’s the same concept as democrats vs Republicans. Each side claims they are the savior and the other side is destroying the country. Each side claims they will get better deals/treaties/etc.

Reality is Democrat or Republican is the same ****! None of these guys have real ideology. Reformist and Consersative...same ****! Rafsanjani was a ultra conservative yet towards the end he was a destabilizing force painted as a reformist! Trump was a democrat then later became a Republican!

The greatest way to fool sheep is make them think there are two distinct parties or groups and one is the traitor!

Straight from 1984 or Art of War. This is how you control society.


Conclusion: anyone thinking Raisi could get a better deal than Rouhani is part of the sheep.

His group came in with their demands and the world powers looked at them and said “bachee dahati boro khoonat”.

1 month later they sheepishly dropped all demands and picked up where Rouhani left off.

JCPOA is the poison chalice that keeps on returning to Iran’s lips.
 
Do you remember the fate of Mohsen Rezaee's son? Do you remember how he was deceived or gulled by anti-Iran people abroad? He was murdered in Dubai and Mohsen Rezaee has confirmed this. And Mohsen Rezaee has always been one of the key figures in the IRGC.

I don't see how this would encourage Rezai to appease the US regime for personal gains. His son Ahmad, obviously, was politically unstable: when he first fled Iran, he not only turned against the Islamic Republic but made incriminating statements against his own father in relation to the AMIA affair.

What about Haddad Adel? He is part of the revolutionary core of the system. Isn't he? His son in law is an Iranian-American. He couldn't speak Farsi before he moved back to Iran.

Yet, Haddad Adel has no private motivations to forego Iran's national interests to the benefit of the US. Being an Iranian-American doesn't necessarily imply that one will legitimize the American regime, by the way. Even an American citizen may actively oppose Washington and its criminal policies.

Yeah. Rafsanjani, Khatami, Larijani, Rouhani, they all have extensive ties with abroad. Maybe Ghalibaf too. I do not know to what extent this applies to other figures in the system, but I know for a fact that many people within the system have business and familial ties with abroad. This makes them prone to making decisions that may not be in Iran's best interests. I believe the JCPOA is partly due to this conflict of interests, as well as other factors.

Never seen valid evidence regarding Ghalibaf. But when it comes to figures such as Rafsanjani, Khatami or Rohani, they do not represent defining features of the Islamic Republic: on the contrary they are dissidents, people who wish to operate "regime change" from within and more precisely, as far as Iran's relations to the US are concerned, they are actually seeking a return to the conditions which prevailed under the Pahlavi monarchy.

So if business and familial ties to the west are an obstacle to the pursuit of national interests, then the shah regime can impossibly be portrayed as one which had Iran's best interests at heart, whether in the nuclear or other domains, given how it was fundamentally a submissive US client state, whereas the Islamic Republic is an anti-imperial polity at its core, notwithstanding liberal dissidents (fifth columnists) in its midst who wish to turn back the clock.

The Islamic Republic's 43-year record of directly challenging and jeopardizing zio-American interests is incomparably broader and more intense than anything leaders such as Saddam Tikriti, Muammar Khadafi, Omar Bashir or Slobodan Milosevic ever managed to achieve in this regard. Yet, the US got rid of the latter nonetheless. Meaning that if Washington could not proceed with "regime change" in Tehran, it is not because of the tendency to appease America exhibited by domestic dissidents within the IR, but because the US regime has resoundingly failed in this endeavor, given Iranian resilience and power, a net result of the policies of the revolutionary establishment.

I should add that historically, economic interaction has seldom been the root cause for political rapprochement let alone integration. The Prophet of Islam (s) allowed Muslims to conduct trade with their enemies. Closer to us from a chronological point of view, East Asia offers a striking illustration: whereas the region is highly integrated from the economic point of view, with the majority of bilateral trade taking place between regional states themselves, politically the whole area is marred by countless simmering conflicts including unresolved territorial disputes, of which the distribution of resources in the South China Sea is one glaring example.

Even the European Union does not derogate from this rule: for although its precursor organization, the ECSC (European Coal and Steel Community) established in 1950 was economic in nature, and even though common political institutions were created at a later point, the initiators of this process, whether the Jean Monnet and Robert Schuman duo or some less known but equally paramount thinkers, were not businessmen motivated by economic considerations but fervent ideologues pursuing genuinely political goals. Economy to them was basically a means, not an end.

Hence why the issue with liberal, western-apologetic reformists / moderates in Iran is not so much a matter of individual business interests: it is ideological and political in essence. Just like the exiled opposition and the overthrown shah regime, these factions do not believe in Iran's independence, autonomy, self-sufficiency and sovereignty. They lack any trust in their country's ability to stand on its own feet, and they look up to the zio-American empire and its European auxiliaries as intrinsically superior entities. A contrario, the revolutionary core of the Islamic Republic is built around diametrically opposite ideological values.

The most important institutions of the Islamic Republic, namely Supreme Leadership and the bulk of the IRGC top brass, not only have no individual ties with the west, but more importantly they are countering NATO / zionist arrogance as a matter of principle.
 
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Yeah, except that it's never going to happen. IR-6 or IR-8 is completely irrelevant here. Wet dreams do not count as a "master plan".

Do you know what Iran needs to achieve to provide fuel for 20 nuclear reactors? Well, allow me to tell you.

Iran needs at least 2,000,000 SWU UF6 Kg/year to provide enough fuel for 20 nuclear reactors with similar nominal capacity of the Bushehr reactor. Yes, you read it correctly. 2 millions! And then there's the issue of our uranium resources and mining as well.

Do you know what Iran's current capacity is? Somewhere close to 10,000 SWU UF6 Kg/year and Iran is right at this moment negotiating with P5+1 over this very negligible enrichment program in exchange for a temporary lift of US unilateral sanctions which may last only 2 years until Trump wins the presidential election again!

Do you see the problem now? Iran is negotiating over 0.5% of what it actually needs to independently operate 20 nuclear reactors. If P5+1 does not allow Iran to have even 0.5% of what it needs for its development plans, do you think they will leave Iran alone and let us have 2 million SWU UF6 Kg/year? I remind you that the JCPOA restricts us to even much less than this. So, if Iran actually returns to JCPOA restrictions, we will be restricted to about 0.25% of what we need.

No country in the world that is not already a nuclear-armed state can reach that capacity because then the breakout time will be so short that you cannot prevent that country from going nuclear at will.

So, back to my original statement, Iran needs a master plan. We need to know what we want to do with our nuclear program. Our today's nuclear program in its present form is an embarrassment and possibly the largest waste of resources in our modern history unless it leads to powerful nukes in the order of 100 kilotons or megatons.
If they actually build nuclear weapons, it would be worth the pain, otherwise their was alot more potential with the Shah, no doubt about this.
 
Never seen valid evidence regarding Ghalibaf. But most importantly, figures such as Rafsanjani, Khatami or Rohani do not represent defining features of the Islamic Republic: on the contrary they are dissidents, people who wish to operate "regime change" from within and more precisely, as far as Iran's relations to the US are concerned, they are actually seeking a return to the conditions which prevailed under the Pahlavi monarchy.

I literally told this forum within last 2 years about Ghalibaf and his corruption. Anyone who does big business in Tehran knows what a crook he is.

One of his most famous crooked deals I came across, is selling the massive land in Chitgar outside Tehran, which the prestigious Iran Mall is built for pennies on the dollar to a 30 something year old.

Not sure why anyone in Republic would be Suprised. Qalibaf and Corruption are like the Sky and the color blue.

But there are many like him in the system.
 
I literally told this forum within last 2 years about Ghalibaf and his corruption. Anyone who does big business in Tehran knows what a crook he is.

One of his most famous crooked deals I came across, is selling the massive land in Chitgar outside Tehran, which the prestigious Iran Mall is built for pennies on the dollar to a 30 something year old.

Not sure why anyone in Republic would be Suprised. Qalibaf and Corruption are like the Sky and the color blue.

But there are many like him in the system.

I've seen no evidence of this but at any rate it's beside my point since the question was whether Qalibaf has some individual financial or relational motivation in appeasing the US regime at the expense of Iran's national interests. And the reply to this question is definitively negative, regardless of the Iran Mall or Yas Holding, considering that these aren't related to Washington.

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If they actually build nuclear weapons, it would be worth the pain, otherwise their was alot more potential with the Shah, no doubt about this.

The shah regime was entirely dependent on its imperial masters including of course in the nuclear realm. There was no plan for effective domestic acquisition of the nuclear fuel cycle, nor even for the practical mastery thereof. No capability to enrich uranium, to construct nuclear reactors (like the one at Arak) etc. So I'm not sure what potential the Pahlavi regime would have had in this regard other than being forced to keep serving western and zionist interests in ever way (read: sacrificing the most fundamental of national interests ie independence) in order for Iran's nuclear program to remain functional.

Generally speaking, the notion of a theoretical potential is the last refuge for Iranian monarchists in the face of history's factual verdict. The Pahlavis had 58 years to realize that alleged potential, but all development-related data in areas which really count show how Iran progressed at a much faster pace after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, despite 8 years of an imposed war, despite massive amounts of US-imposed sanctions as well as rabid hostility of the world's pre-eminent power bloc, namely the zio-American empire and its gaudy collection of lackeys.
 
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Russia has launched full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv says​


Russia says it has taken out infrastructure at Ukraine air bases: Reports​


Air raid sirens blaring throughout Kyiv​


Zelenskyy declares martial law, says Ukraine will ‘win’​


Ukraine says troops attacked from Russia and Belarus​


Russia says targeting Ukraine military facilities with ‘precision’ weapons​

 
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Ukraine's air defense destroyed – Russia​

A lightning offensive has crippled the Ukrainian military, Moscow claims

Ruble hits record low, euro skids as Russia attacks Ukraine​

The Moscow Exchange halted trading in the ruble, stocks and futures, after the currency fell to its lowest level since 2016. The ruble fell 3.5% to 84.1 per dollar, while Brent crude topped $100 for the first time since 2014.27 mins ago
 
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Maybe just maybe Iran can get some shiny new weapons from Russia. Although Russia will avoid pissing off Israel. So doubt it. Israel has stayed pretty mum about Russia-Ukraine.

But on the bright side, oil futures trading at 103. Much needed oil revenue for Iran to help stabilize itself after sanctions and COVID back to back.
 
This war will only benefit Iran one way or the other, both financially and from a geopolitical perspective. Last month Iran sent out 5 million barrels on the busiest day. There was already a harsh winter, energy prices had already hit peak prices with energy crises' in China, EU, basically everywhere. Now for Iran, this is like the cream on top of the crop. Remember when Trump stated that he would bring Iran's oil sales to zero.

So far I'm hearing that cruise missiles and other missiles have been used. S-400 air defense has been activated. Russian artillery and fighter jets seem to have been used as well, dropping bombs. Russia has sent in armored columns from the north, from Belarus past Ukraine's borders. Ukraine's air defenses have been completely nuetralized. Russian troops are now 3 hours away from Kiev.

Maybe just maybe Iran can get some shiny new weapons from Russia. Although Russia will avoid pissing off Israel. So doubt it. Israel has stayed pretty mum about Russia-Ukraine.

But on the bright side, oil futures trading at 103. Much needed oil revenue for Iran to help stabilize itself after sanctions and COVID back to back.
 
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This war will only benefit Iran one way or the other, both financially and from a geopolitical perspective. Last month Iran sent out 5 million barrels on the busiest day. There was already a harsh winter, energy prices had already hit peak prices with energy crises' in China, EU, basically everywhere. Now for Iran, this is like the cream on top of the crop. Remember when Trump stated that he would bring Iran's oil sales to zero.

5M barrels in a single day is irrelevant. You have to look at monthly shipping volume and bpd. And regarding Iranian oil sales it fell to as low as 100K BPD (officially), which is quite abysmal.

But regarding the 5M Barrel number, do people really think when Iran ships 1.5MBPD that amount is literally done EVERY Day? No, it’s merely an average of monthly and yearly output.

Either way Iran is still well below Shah 1970’s era production levels and it sits on #3-#4 in oil reserves.

So Iran’s production level is due to terrible lack of investment in its facilities, oil fields, and lack of investment to tap new fields, and do greater research to find even bigger fields likely still not found. Not to mention Iran doesn’t have the necessary technology to tap into its shale oil reserves which are also quite abundant.

This needs to be rectified soon because in 100 years who knows if oil will even be legal to be used as energy due to climate change laws.

So Iran needs to take this opportunity and get as much investment into oil, gas, and LNG as it can.

It is starting to look like Fusion, Hydrogen, and wind/solar will be the future energies to power the world.

 
When it comes to Iran, much of its oil sales are shrouded in secrecy, so looking at official month shipping volumes and such is almost pointless. Some sources show that Iran is officially selling almost zero. Are they right. I highly doubt it.

All I know is that they tried to bring Iran's oil sales to zero. Despite that Iran is selling 1 million barrels a day+ just to China. Then you see Iranian oil to all of its neighbors.

Iranian oil is in Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, Yemen, Venezuela. I've heard Iranian oil is all over Asia as well. It gets rebranded and sold under the table everywhere. Of course nobody is going to come out and admit it, but it's not hard to see that Iran has been selling 2 million + barrels a day for the last few years.

Now this bitter winter, with China, EU, experiencing severe energy crisis' and now with the price spiking, it's really like the cream on top of the cake.

It's hard to compare output to the Shah era, especially after the war in the 80's really hurt Iran's capacity. Also Iran as a nation requires half the oil that Iran produces. Iran's population has more than doubled since the Shah era.

Remember a few decades ago some analysts were guessing that in 20 years Iran would run out of oil. This could explain Iran's reserved approach to exporting its oil. Realistically thinking that renewables is going to replace fuel... the world is very far from that, it's going to take decades 2 or 3 decades at the least and even as the worlds population soars, fuel will still be required.

Fuel banned ? Hydrogen/fuel/solar ? Yeah no, that technology has a long way to go. Give it 50 years until that happens. Even then I bet you fuel will still be used, especially as the technology to use the fuel becomes more and more efficient over time.

5M barrels in a single day is irrelevant. You have to look at monthly shipping volume and bpd. And regarding Iranian oil sales it fell to as low as 100K BPD (officially), which is quite abysmal.

But regarding the 5M Barrel number, do people really think when Iran ships 1.5MBPD that amount is literally done EVERY Day? No, it’s merely an average of monthly and yearly output.

Either way Iran is still well below Shah 1970’s era production levels and it sits on #3-#4 in oil reserves.

So Iran’s production level is due to terrible lack of investment in its facilities, oil fields, and lack of investment to tap new fields, and do greater research to find even bigger fields likely still not found. Not to mention Iran doesn’t have the necessary technology to tap into its shale oil reserves which are also quite abundant.

This needs to be rectified soon because in 100 years who knows if oil will even be legal to be used as energy due to climate change laws.

So Iran needs to take this opportunity and get as much investment into oil, gas, and LNG as it can.

It is starting to look like Fusion, Hydrogen, and wind/solar will be the future energies to power the world.


Russian armored columns crossing the border into Ukraine. Seemingly no resistance. 2 hours ago. Russian troops are reportedly rolling into Ukraine from every direction. Belarus, Crimea, Donbas. I wouldn't want to be the Ukrainian military right now.

Realistically Russia attempted to negotiate with them for years and they tried brokering some kind of ceasefire or coming to a compromise. The Ukrainians refused.

They were warned to CEASE operations in Donbas immediately, they refused and continued to threaten Russia, shelling and shooting at ethnic Russians. Ukraine even went as far as to threaten Russia with nuclear weapons. What did you think would happen ?

 
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