Iranian Chill Thread

[925boy]

More sanctions on Russia, might be just the incentive required to sell Su-35's to Iran.

OH SHT! this some creative thinking i like it, and its possible. Look, i dont mean to sound like a traitor or anytihng, but in my heart, i'm more worried about what these world crisis like Ukraine will do to the US economy, because US took damage from the China trade war under Trump, so i;m worried that people will think US will come out so financially ok after sanctioning Russia, but obv US sanctions are beginning to backfire on the US, they are obv not helping the USD grow stronger IMO.

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496190117840670725

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496190123788099587

good info

but obv US sanctions are beginning to backfire on the US, they are obv not helping the USD grow stronger IMO.

US posted it’s highest GDP growth rate in more than 30 years.

Until you have an alternative to the dollar led global financial system that has been in place since end of WW2 the US isn’t going anywhere and can wield the sanctions arm as long as most nations depend on the dollar.

Right now Dollar and Euro (and maybe British Pound) are what the global financial (banking) system relies on. Consequently those 3 major currencies belong to very strong allies.

The thing with empires is, once they past their peak (highest moment in their history) collapse could take decades or even hundreds of years.

Predicting when a empire because irrelevant is like predicting the end of the world. Man has been doing the later since 10,000 years ago.

 

[aryobarzan]

MY morning thoughts:
Some Interesting notes about Iran's economy, sanctions and unintended consequences:

1- Trump reduced Iran's $50 per barrel oil sales to minimum...Now Iran is selling those barrels at $92 dollars per barrel.. Iran's Gas..now everyone needs it!

2- US sanctions forced Iranians to work hard and build everything in-house..the result was higher GDP and that made Iran NO 17 world economy with only 85 million population.

3- Iran used to assemble or buy everything from cars to fridges to military equipment..thanks to the sanctions now Iran designs and builds all of those and has become a military giant and a nuclear capable country

I follow all of the above domains close and if this trend continues and knowing Iran's potential (resource superpower) we are just at the start of climbing up and my prediction is that Iran will be one of the TOP 10 economies of the world in a decade...mark my words for it...now back to work making threads..lol

 

[QWECXZ]

MY morning thoughts:
Some Interesting notes about Iran's economy, sanctions and unintended consequences:

1- Trump reduced Iran's $50 per barrel oil sales to minimum...Now Iran is selling those barrels at $92 dollars per barrel.. Iran's Gas..now everyone needs it!

2- US sanctions forced Iranians to work hard and build everything in-house..the result was higher GDP and that made Iran NO 17 world economy with only 85 million population.

3- Iran used to assemble or buy everything from cars to fridges to military equipment..thanks to the sanctions now Iran designs and builds all of those and has become a military giant and a nuclear capable country

I follow all of the above domains close and if this trend continues and knowing Iran's potential (resource superpower) we are just at the start of climbing up and my prediction is that Iran will be one of the TOP 10 economies of the world in a decade...mark my words for it.

Well, Iran is the world's 17th most populous country. So, being 17th in nominal GDP is not really something exceptional for a country of our size and our mineral and human resources. Also, we all have agreed before that Iran's PPP GDP presents a more accurate picture of our economy due to the large gap between the official exchange rate and the exchange rate used in unofficial markets, which remains volatile and unpredictable.

Nevertheless, there were similar predictions about Iran when Ahmadinejad was in power. Back then Iran was showing rapid progress in science and technology and huge national projects were in progress. 10 years later, most of those predictions turned out to be false because the Rouhani administration decided to take a different path and sanctions did have an impact on our progress. As long as there is no master plan for running the country, Iran will not become a global power. We will remain a regional power even in worst case scenarios, but this status will continue to be challenged by countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia and power projection outside of the Middle East or entering top 10 economies of the world will be out of reach for the foreseeable future.

 

[aryobarzan]

Well, Iran is the world's 17th most populous country. So, being 17th in nominal GDP is not really something exceptional for a country of our size and our mineral and human resources. Also, we all have agreed before that Iran's PPP GDP presents a more accurate picture of our economy due to the large gap between the official exchange rate and the exchange rate used in unofficial markets, which remains volatile and unpredictable.

Nevertheless, there were similar predictions about Iran when Ahmadinejad was in power. Back then Iran was showing rapid progress in science and technology and huge national projects were in progress. 10 years later, most of those predictions turned out to be false because the Rouhani administration decided to take a different path and sanctions did have an impact on our progress. As long as there is no master plan for running the country, Iran will not become a global power. We will remain a regional power even in worst case scenarios, but this status will continue to be challenged by countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia and power projection outside of the Middle East or entering top 10 economies of the world will be out of reach for the foreseeable future.

Well as you know I do not argue with other people's views after all it is all opinions ..but hopfully we both will be around to see the results..in the next 10 years

And by the way there is a "Master Plan"..it calls for Iran to be top 10 in the next 40 years..I predict it will happen sooner seeing how the geo-political scene is shifting so fast...

 

[QWECXZ]

Well as you know I do not argue with other people's views after all it is all opinions ..but hopfully we both will be around to see the results..in the next 10 years

And by the way there is a "Master Plan"..it calls for Iran to be top 10 in the next 40 years..I predict it will happen sooner seeing how the geo-political scene is shifting so fast...

Yeah, yeah. There's a development plan but we don't move in the direction that can fulfill it. Look at nuclear electricity production for example. After 20 years, we have only one reactor at Bushehr that its nominal output is 1000 megawatts. It's just minuscule compared to what it should be.

I mean look at the 5th development plan and see how much we are behind our scheduled plans. Let alone 6th development plan.

 

[aryobarzan]

Yeah, yeah. There's a development plan but we don't move in the direction that can fulfill it. Look at nuclear electricity production for example. After 20 years, we have only one reactor at Bushehr that its nominal output is 1000 megawatts. It's just minuscule compared to what it should be.

I mean look at the 5th development plan and see how much we are behind our scheduled plans. Let alone 6th development plan.

Granted things slipped during the F*king Rohanni's 8 years wasted..but we are back..I look at Raisi performance and this guy means business..

By the way..about Electrical power which I discovered lately.. Iran's Electricity "Capacity" is 90 Giga Watts..Iran's Current electricity output is 60 Giga Watts (10 Gig short of what is needed) Busher is 1 giga watts UAE korean new reactor are 1.4 Giga watts each.

Capacity @ 90 GW is high but production at 60 GW is short ..the reason..my guess..low water behind dams that generate power and natural gas shortage !!

As per Raisi..Iran will become electricity king in the region and I think with having MAPNA it will happen.

 

[QWECXZ]

Granted things slipped during the F*king Rohanni's 8 years wasted..but we are back..I look at Raisi performance and this guy means business..

By the way..about Electrical power which I discovered lately.. Iran's Electricity "Capacity" is 90 Giga Watts..Iran's Current electricity output is 60 Giga Watts (10 Gig short of what is needed) Busher is 1 giga watts UAE korean new reactor are 1.4 Giga watts each.

Capacity @ 90 GW is high but production at 60 GW is short ..the reason..my guess..low water behind dams that generate power and natural gas shortage !!

As per Raisi..Iran will become electricity king in the region and I think with having MAPNA it will happen.

When I talk about master plans, you can look at what the Shah wanted for the nuclear industry. Granted, Iran wasn't an independent country back then (and even today we are not as independent as you people here like to claim), but you can see what I mean by a master plan:

The Shah wanted to produce 23 gigawatts of electricity using nuclear energy in 2 decades. He purchased 10% of Eurodif to provide 270 tonnes of enriched uranium for our nuclear reactors annually. He purchased Tehran Research Reactor and signed a contract with MIT to train our nuclear engineers and scientists.

This is what you call a master plan. Iran currently operates only one reactor at Bushehr. It was completed 30 years after the revolution. 2 other reactors are planned and one of them is under construction now and it is to be completed in 2023 but seems to be behind schedule. Our enrichment capacity is not enough even for running this single nuclear reactor for just 1 year and if Russians for whatever reason stop providing us with the enriched uranium, we won't be able to operate even the current reactor at Bushehr on our own. No country in the world would accept to sell enriched uranium to us if the Chinese and the Russians don't do it.

One of the issues that has not been even discussed in nuclear negotiations with the west is our share of Eurodif. I am surprised that nobody talks about it.

Now that's a master plan. You know your goal. You know your needs. You have planned carefully to satisfy your needs and you have access to all major players in the market. I have said it before and I repeat it again: Iran's nuclear program in its present form is an embarrassment if it is not used for nuclear weapons. If the IRI does not want to build nukes, our civilian program is nothing short of treason in its present form, which hasn't changed much since 2006.

If you want to look at our neighbors, look at the UAE. They will soon produce 5.4 Gigawatts of nuclear energy and we'll be stuck at just 2 Gigawatts, assuming that the second reactor at Bushehr connects to the national grid as planned.

 

[925boy]

good info



US posted it’s highest GDP growth rate in more than 30 years.

while also maintaing the largest debt on record, debt to GDP ratio is over 100%, and you and i know US is too broke to pay it all back. US isnt in a healthy situation economically.

Until you have an alternative to the dollar led global financial system that has been in place since end of WW2 the US isn’t going anywhere and can wield the sanctions arm as long as most nations depend on the dollar.

We do - other national currencies and cryptos, you're talking like we're in 1999. US dollar is inherently weak, and its showing its worth, sorry worthlessness these days via inflation records USD IS NOT HEALTHY!

Right now Dollar and Euro (and maybe British Pound) are what the global financial (banking) system relies on. Consequently those 3 major currencies belong to very strong allies.

Lol...global financial banks are using more yuan, more national reserves hold more yuan, local currencies are being increased, yo're oversimplifying hold of USD, even Russia has dumped most USD and China buys less US treasuries, are you in denial that China has hanged the global commerce game? CUZ IT HAS! CHina is alreay richer than US, thats why US has over $30bn monthly trade deficit with China - we need CHina more than they need us, that must've changed the world already, if you're realistic that is.

The thing with empires is, once they past their peak (highest moment in their history) collapse could take decades or even hundreds of years.

US collapse wont take any 100s of years. give it 10 years. US FOR CRIST SAKES HAD AN INSURRECTION!!! we lmost lost our gov less than 2 years ago....i think you're info is outdated, not a personal attack. things are way different today.

 

[_Nabil_]

Iran, Qatar sign major agreements on Raisi’s Doha trip

Deals signed between the two countries range from trade and diplomatic cooperation to sport and culture.

www.aljazeera.com

Sorry if already posted

 

[aryobarzan]

When I talk about master plans, you can look at what the Shah wanted for the nuclear industry. Granted, Iran wasn't an independent country back then (and even today we are not as independent as you people here like to claim), but you can see what I mean by a master plan:

The Shah wanted to produce 23 gigawatts of electricity using nuclear energy in 2 decades. He purchased 10% of Eurodif to provide 270 tonnes of enriched uranium for our nuclear reactors annually. He purchased Tehran Research Reactor and signed a contract with MIT to train our nuclear engineers and scientists.

This is what you call a master plan. Iran currently operates only one reactor at Bushehr. It was completed 30 years after the revolution. 2 other reactors are planned and one of them is under construction now and it is to be completed in 2023 but seems to be behind schedule. Our enrichment capacity is not enough even for running this single nuclear reactor for just 1 year and if Russians for whatever reason stop providing us with the enriched uranium, we won't be able to operate even the current reactor at Bushehr on our own. No country in the world would accept to sell enriched uranium to us if the Chinese and the Russians don't do it.

One of the issues that has not been even discussed in nuclear negotiations with the west is our share of Eurodif. I am surprised that nobody talks about it.

Now that's a master plan. You know your goal. You know your needs. You have planned carefully to satisfy your needs and you have access to all major players in the market. I have said it before and I repeat it again: Iran's nuclear program in its present form is an embarrassment if it is not used for nuclear weapons. If the IRI does not want to build nukes, our civilian program is nothing short of treason in its present form, which hasn't changed much since 2006.

If you want to look at our neighbors, look at the UAE. They will soon produce 5.4 Gigawatts of nuclear energy and we'll be stuck at just 2 Gigawatts, assuming that the second reactor at Bushehr connects to the national grid as planned.

You asked for Master plan...Raisi knew you would ask for it..lol

I guess Iran's civilian nuclear industry will be busy building some of the reactors and manufacturing nuclear fuel for these plants . Those IR6 centrifuges will be very busy !!

Iran building up to 20 Nuclear power plants

• Iran has said it wants to build a network of nuclear power plants with a capacity of 20,000 megawatts to enable it to export more of its bountiful oil and gas.(Note the current Bushehr reactor generates 1000 megawatts).
• 17,000 megawatts already approved for next year budget.

See the full report on "Iran infrastructure" thread.
Iran to use her own nuclear fuel in Bushehr nuclear power plants.
TEHRAN— Mohammad Eslami, the director of Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), has told Sputnik that his country can create nuclear fuel on its own and will soon begin using it at the Bushehr nuclear power plant.

Self-sufficient Iran plans to power nuclear plants​

TEHRAN— Mohammad Eslami, the director of Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), has told Sputnik that his country can create nuclear fuel on its own and will soon begin using it at the Bushehr nuclear power plant.
www.tehrantimes.com

Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it

 

[QWECXZ]

I guess Iran's civilian nuclear industry will be busy building some of the reactors and manufacturing nuclear fuel for these plants . Those IR6 centrifuges will be very busy !!

Iran building up to 20 Nuclear power plants

• Iran has said it wants to build a network of nuclear power plants with a capacity of 20,000 megawatts to enable it to export more of its bountiful oil and gas.(Note the current Bushehr reactor generates 1000 megawatts).
• 17,000 megawatts already approved for next year budget.

See the full report on "Iran infrastructure" thread.

Yeah, except that it's never going to happen. IR-6 or IR-8 is completely irrelevant here. Wet dreams do not count as a "master plan".

Do you know what Iran needs to achieve to provide fuel for 20 nuclear reactors? Well, allow me to tell you.

Iran needs at least 2,000,000 SWU UF6 Kg/year to provide enough fuel for 20 nuclear reactors with similar nominal capacity of the Bushehr reactor. Yes, you read it correctly. 2 millions! And then there's the issue of our uranium resources and mining as well.

Do you know what Iran's current capacity is? Somewhere close to 10,000 SWU UF6 Kg/year and Iran is right at this moment negotiating with P5+1 over this very negligible enrichment program in exchange for a temporary lift of US unilateral sanctions which may last only 2 years until Trump wins the presidential election again!

Do you see the problem now? Iran is negotiating over 0.5% of what it actually needs to independently operate 20 nuclear reactors. If P5+1 does not allow Iran to have even 0.5% of what it needs for its development plans, do you think they will leave Iran alone and let us have 2 million SWU UF6 Kg/year? I remind you that the JCPOA restricts us to even much less than this. So, if Iran actually returns to JCPOA restrictions, we will be restricted to about 0.25% of what we need.

No country in the world that is not already a nuclear-armed state can reach that capacity because then the breakout time will be so short that you cannot prevent that country from going nuclear at will.

So, back to my original statement, Iran needs a master plan. We need to know what we want to do with our nuclear program. Our today's nuclear program in its present form is an embarrassment and possibly the largest waste of resources in our modern history unless it leads to powerful nukes in the order of 100 kilotons or megatons.

 

[aryobarzan]

Yeah, except that it's never going to happen. IR-6 or IR-8 is completely irrelevant here.

Do you know what Iran needs to achieve to provide fuel for 20 nuclear reactors?
Well, let me tell you.

Iran needs at least 2,000,000 SWU UF6 Kg/year to provide enough fuel for 20 nuclear reactors with similar nominal capacity of the Bushehr reactor. Yes, you read it correctly. 2 million! And then there's the issue of our uranium resources and mining as well.

Do you know what Iran's current capacity is? Somewhere close to 10,000 SWU UF6 Kg/year and Iran is right at this moment negotiating with P5+1 over this very negligible enrichment program in exchange for a temporary lift of US unilateral sanctions.

Do you see the problem now? Iran is negotiating over 0.5% of what it actually needs to independently operate 20 nuclear reactors. If P5+1 does not allow Iran to have even 0.5% of what it needs for its development plans, do you think they will leave Iran alone and let us have 2 million SWU UF6 Kg/year? I remind you that the JCPOA restricts us to even much less than this. So, if Iran actually returns to JCPOA restrictions, we will be restricted to about 0.25% of what we need.

No country in the world that is not already a nuclear-armed state can reach that capacity because then the breakout time will be so small that you cannot prevent that country from going nuclear at will.

So, back to my original statement, Iran needs a master plan. We need to know what we want to do with our nuclear program. Our today's nuclear program in its present form is an embarrassment and possibly the largest waste of resources in our modern history unless it leads to powerful nukes in the order of 100 kilotons or megatons.

Lets hope we get the nukes and will expand the nuclear industry to make all the fuel...a good marching order for the nation...Give poor man Raisi more time..only been in office 6 months...He has to clean up Rouhani mess and advance the country also..not an easy task..be positive...Rome was not built over nite...on that note,,I have to go walk my dog..it is freaking cold in here but the dog has demands..lol

 

[QWECXZ]

Lets hope we get the nukes and will expand the nuclear industry to make all the fuel...a good marching order for the nation...Give poor man Raisi more time..only been in office 6 months...He has to clean up Rouhani mess and advance the country also..not an easy task..be positive...Rome was not built over nite...on that note,,I have to go walk my dog..it is freaking cold in here but the dog has demands..lol

Well, rumors from Vienna leave little room for hope. It seems that the deal is going to be restored and even if the US gives legal guarantees to Iran (which they refuse to do so), the mechanisms of international law make it impossible for Iran to enforce those guarantees and demand its rights. I mean legally speaking, what could you do to a country that holds veto power in the UNSC?

And we all know that Trump has a high chance of winning the 2024 presidential election. Time is running out fast and Raeesi needs to hurry up. Even the parliament is not that happy with the Vienna negotiations and we have witnessed no progress regarding the Arak heavy water reactor since August. That is a violation of the parliament's last year resolution. The same applies to Iran's space program. We all anticipated a satellite launch in Bahman but nothing happened.

 

[sha ah]

From what I've read, the terms of the new agreement will include more stringent verification measures for both sides, to make sure both sides are strictly abiding by the terms of the deal to the letter. Supposedly, also as part of the terms, if any future US administration violates the deal, Iran will be legally allowed to enrich Uranium up to 60% purity.

In my opinion, Iran needs to quickly digitize and encrypt their currency. After that Iran needs to establish some sort of external banking institution that transfers funds using Iran's SWIFT equivalent, SEPAM and establish branches in key locations, predominantly focusing on Europe / Asia.

These intra-Iran-EU-Asian financial institutions should be established after the deal as another safety net for Iran, so that medium and smaller institutions trading with Iran will feel secure regardless of what any future US president wants to do.

Well, rumors from Vienna leave little room for hope. It seems that the deal is going to be restored and even if the US gives legal guarantees to Iran (which they refuse to do so), the mechanisms of international law make it impossible for Iran to enforce those guarantees and demand its rights. I mean legally speaking, what could you do to a country that holds veto power in the UNSC?

And we all know that Trump have a high chance of winning the 2024 presidential election. Time is running out fast and Raeesi needs to hurry up. Even the parliament is not that happy with the Vienna negotiations and we have witnessed no progress regarding the Arak heavy water reactor since August. That is a violation of the parliament's last year resolution. The same applies to Iran's space program. We all anticipated a satellite launch in Bahman but nothing happened.