Iranian Chill Thread

[_Nabil_]

Replying to a comment isnt spamming lol

See, you dont even know how the issue started and what it was over. Like I said, mind your own business.

Useless reply is spamming, like I'm doing unfortunately now.

Thanks to God, here is an ignore function, bye, beslama .....

 

[Daylamite Warrior]

Useless reply is spamming, like I'm doing unfortunately now.

Thanks to God, here is an ignore function, bye, beslama .....

Yeah exactly, youre replying to my comment therefore youre "sPaMmInG" too? Come on. It may be useless to you since you dont know what the discussion was about, are oblivious and one-sided to the personal insults thrown my way, and got involved in something that didnt concern you.

Yes, ignore! Allah hafez!

 

[TheImmortal]

I think you're downplaying how much support Putin has in Russia and neighbouring countries. Sanctions will be ineffective on Russia and will have counterproductive effect on EU and US. It will literally be a "cold" war.

Though I agree with you in that Iran has bigger balls than Putin because they have been proactive and strike back as hard as we can, regardless of who the enemy is. Putin is famed for inaction.

Actually Putin support is at all time lows within Russia if you compare it to 2010 and 2005. The oligarchs will support him because it’s symbiotic relationship.

Russia ruble is being crushed and Russian economy hasn’t been stellar either.

The average man is short sighted and doesn’t care about the the “Great Power Games”. He cares about today and tommorrow. He cares about himself. Average citizen is quick to turn on his government when the going gets tough.

As for sanctions, Russia does rely on high tech imports for its oil/gas industry, semiconductor, etc.

As long as it can sell its oil and gas (to Europe) it will survive, but if US sanctions oil/gas then russia is Iran 2.0 waiting to happen.

I don’t think that will happen, Europe is still too reliant on Russian gas to be able to wean itself. And unlike Iran, Russia is a top 3 oil supplier in the world so sanction Russian oil will cause pain to the whole world. Whereas in case of Iran’s 1-2M barrels export was easily made up by Saudi’s overpumping alongside rest of OPEC.

But US can cause the Russian PEOPLE a lot of pain and that is it’s nefarious endgame in ALL sanctions schemes....to hurt the people of a country and break them down.

 

[sha ah]

No Russia has been saving and preparing for this moment since 2015. He has been saving every single penny and has a massive, well balanced warchest. Russia currently has enough gold and foreign currency reserves to last 2 years if Russia had ZERO income.

So far they have imposed sanctions on the "breakaway regions" LOL WTF is that going to do at all ? Also they have asked Zelensky to leave Kiev and Ukraine for "his own safety" They're basically handing Ukraine over to Putin in a gift box.

Ukraine is Russian anyways. Everyone in Ukraine speaks Russian. 1/3rd of the parts which remain under Kiev government control currently consider themselves native Russians.

See here's the thing, the US can fully sanction Russia and feel nothing. UK is an island on the western fringes of Europe. However EU, especially Germany, which exports 50-60% of its natural gas from Russia WILL feel bounce back from serious sanctions. The Germans have even recently made the ret#rded decision to shut down all of its nuclear power plants so they will even be more dependent on Russia for gas imports than ever before.

They could of course buy liquefied natural gas from the US for ALOT more than what Russia will charge but they will then also need to build the infrastructure for that, which will take some time. Meanwhile There are already 2 pipelines to Russia.

This winter is excessively cold and do you really think German resolve will hold over subsequent years ? Using LNG is more expensive, on top of that you know the US will charge them an arm and a leg for that "freedom gas" You really think the Germans will pay ? It would not be a smart move for the Europeans and they know it. Putin planned this all out. He has them pretty much cornered.

Russia currently has the 5th largest reserves of Gold in the world. 2000+ tons of Gold and lots of foreign currency, USD, EU, Yen, Yuan, you name it, he's got pallets stacked on pallets, stacked on even more pallets. They already have an alternative system to SWIFT which Iran is now using with Russia/China to evade sanctions.

Even if the US/EU seriously impose crippling sanctions, it won't effect the Ruble too much. That's what I'm hearing anyways, because supposedly Putin has more than enough foreign currency to simply buy back more Rubles for years.

Remember China recently built a new gas pipeline between them and if they deal in their alternative banking system nobody can touch them anyways. China has already digitized and is in the process of fully encrypting its currency. Only time will tell but we'll see.

Putin waited till they brought the war to his doorstep to act like a world power.

Iran went into Syria to prevent the war from being at its doorstep.

Just look at the difference in military planning. And yet there were some in IRGC who even said iran should NEGOTIATE over Syria.

Rule #1: You do not NEGOTIATE when you are losing territory, if you negotiate the enemy will demand more the next time they make a Chess move. Game of chess will always be playing, it doesn’t stop just because you negotiate on one piece.

Now come the sanctions on Russia, if he stops at breakaway regions, sanctions should be manageable, if he tries to take all of Ukraine he could face brutal economic costs.

Russia people will give him 12 months, but after that the grumbling of hardship will take its toll and protests could breakout.

Ummm... no Putin's approval rating is steady in Russia at 69% and the Ruble is not being crushed at all. Russia has more than enough Gold and foreign currency to hold its price in place. Believe me Putin is alot more intelligent than Johnson or half asleep Biden. Russia is too big to sanction. 50-60% of Germany's natural gas imports are from Russia and they just shut down all of their nuclear plants.

What do you mean Iran 2.0 ? Iran's economy is currently growing despite sanctions. Last month Iran sent out 5 million barrels of crude via maritime routes despite sanctions. The sanctions against Iran have failed. Putin is bullet proof in this regard.

He was caught off guard in 2015. This time they have prepared for 7 years.

Actually Putin support is at all time lows within Russia if you compare it to 2010 and 2005. The oligarchs will support him because it’s symbiotic relationship.

Russia ruble is being crushed and Russian economy hasn’t been stellar either.

The average man is short sighted and doesn’t care about the the “Great Power Games”. He cares about today and tommorrow. He cares about himself. Average citizen is quick to turn on his government when the going gets tough.

As for sanctions, Russia does rely on high tech imports for its oil/gas industry, semiconductor, etc.

As long as it can sell its oil and gas (to Europe) it will survive, but if US sanctions oil/gas then russia is Iran 2.0 waiting to happen.

I don’t think that will happen, Europe is still too reliant on Russian gas to be able to wean itself. And unlike Iran, Russia is a top 3 oil supplier in the world so sanction Russian oil will cause pain to the whole world. Whereas in case of Iran’s 1-2M barrels export was easily made up by Saudi’s overpumping alongside rest of OPEC.

But US can cause the Russian PEOPLE a lot of pain and that is it’s nefarious endgame in ALL sanctions schemes....to hurt the people of a country and break them down.

 

[TheImmortal]

No Russia has been saving and preparing for this moment since 2015. He has been saving every single penny and has a massive, well balanced warchest. Russia currently has enough gold and foreign currency reserves to last 2 years if Russia had ZERO income.

So far they have imposed sanctions on the "breakaway regions" LOL WTF is that going to do at all ? Also they have asked Zelensky to leave Kiev and Ukraine for "his own safety" They're basically handing Ukraine over to Putin in a gift box.

Ukraine is Russian anyways. Everyone in Ukraine speaks Russian. 1/3rd of the parts which remain under Kiev government control currently consider themselves native Russians.

See here's the thing, the US can fully sanction Russia and feel nothing. UK is an island on the western fringes of Europe. However EU, especially Germany, which exports 50-60% of its natural gas from Russia WILL feel bounce back from serious sanctions. The Germans have even recently made the ret#rded decision to shut down all of its nuclear power plants so they will even be more dependent on Russia for gas imports than ever before.

They could of course buy liquefied natural gas from the US for ALOT more than what Russia will charge but they will then also need to build the infrastructure for that, which will take some time. Meanwhile There are already 2 pipelines to Russia.

This winter is excessively cold and do you really think German resolve will hold over subsequent years ? Using LNG is more expensive, on top of that you know the US will charge them an arm and a leg for that "freedom gas" You really think the Germans will pay ? It would not be a smart move for the Europeans and they know it. Putin planned this all out. He has them pretty much cornered.

Russia currently has the 5th largest reserves of Gold in the world. 2000+ tons of Gold and lots of foreign currency, USD, EU, Yen, Yuan, you name it, he's got pallets stacked on pallets, stacked on even more pallets. They already have an alternative system to SWIFT which Iran is now using with Russia/China to evade sanctions.

Even if the US/EU seriously impose crippling sanctions, it won't effect the Ruble too much. That's what I'm hearing anyways, because supposedly Putin has more than enough foreign currency to simply buy back more Rubles for years.

Remember China recently built a new gas pipeline between them and if they deal in their alternative banking system nobody can touch them anyways. China has already digitized and is in the process of fully encrypting its currency. Only time will tell but we'll see.



Ummm... no Putin's approval rating is steady in Russia at 69% and the Ruble is not being crushed at all. Russia has more than enough Gold and foreign currency to hold its price in place. Believe me Putin is alot more intelligent than Johnson or half asleep Biden. Russia is too big to sanction. 50-60% of Germany's natural gas imports are from Russia and they just shut down all of their nuclear plants.

What do you mean Iran 2.0 ? Iran's economy is currently growing despite sanctions. Last month Iran sent out 5 million barrels of crude via maritime routes despite sanctions. The sanctions against Iran have failed. Putin is bullet proof in this regard.

He was caught off guard in 2015. This time they have prepared for 7 years.

View attachment 817424View attachment 817425

1) USD to Russian ruble was 24 in 2008 its over 80 now. That is a very sharp increase.

2) US doesn’t have LNG capacity to feed all of Europe. Even Qatar doesn’t have capacity at this moment as LNG shipping can never catch up to a pipeline.

3) Iran inflation is 40% yoy and more than half of the country is in poverty. Just because economy is “growing” this year is irrelevant. You have to look at the totality of the economy, not take one metric during one timeframe. Neither does shipping 1-1.5M bpd as that is not enough to turn around Iran’s economic fortunes. Iran was shipping that much during JCPOA and its economic situation was still deteriorating. Because JCPOA was a lie that the west never really honored.

4) Russia currency reserves is 500-600B, but you can ask Saudi Arabia (Yemen conflict) how fast that can disappear when you are in military conflicts. In case of Russia, defending your currency you can easily burn 50-100B at a time to “stabilize” your currency. Russia spent 6-10B in one month alone couple years ago to try to stabilize.

That is why Iran stopped defending the toman too much now because it was a ploy to make Iran burn its currency reserves and gold reserves. So either your people accept hardship or you lose your warchest. Cant have both.

Need to be unbiased here if you cannot be unbiased then healthy discussions are fruitless. 2007 Toman was 1.2 now is 28+. That is beyond normal currency inflation. Not entirely sanctions fault, a lot is economic mismanagement due to terrible economic policy and lack of innovation.


China is probably the only “non west” power that can withstand US and Western sanctions relatively well.

As for Russia, I don’t think the story is over just yet. You don’t move 190K troops to take two regions that were virtually under your control to begin with.

 

[sha ah]

Well Iran has the 17th largest economy in the world and it's growing steadily despite US sanctions. If Iran can do that then believe me Russia will be fine. They have sufficient currency/gold reserves and the vast majority of Russians support Putin's moves.

Again Russia is too big to sanction, there will be severe bounce back effects for Germany and the EU in general if they try and impose serious sanctions. BTW where will the EU now get it's natural gas if not from Russia ? Pretty much Germany/EU MUST buy Russian gas more or less. Perhaps they can start to defer and work with alternative means but Russia will be the primary exporter for years to come regardless.

Anyways Putin has just acknowledged the independence of the two Russian breakaway republics in the Donbas. However right now the Ukrainian central government currency controls 2/3rd of the Donbas area. My guess is that Putin's next more will involve sending in Russian troops and demanding that Ukranians move out of the rest of Donbas.

If they refuse they will be severely bombed into oblivion and annihilated and likely the rest of Russia's troops will launch a crippling, simultaneous invasion of Ukraine involving shock and awe style bombing strikes and then quickly tearing Ukraine apart into 3/4 or more pieces within a few days or weeks. Isolating the Ukrainian heartland into smaller pockets.

The goal of course will be to largely avoid urban fighting while wanting to surround every major city to make Ukraine accept terms. If they refuse even when they're surrounded, then Putin may very well turn off their power and gas and simply wait until they are ready to accept terms.

This is actually really silly from a geo strategic perspective. It's obvious that Ukraine has no chance to stand up to Russia and despite Zelensky begging, both the EU and NATO have staunchly said NO to Ukrainian entry into either block. So then what is the point ?

Why is Ukraine even picking a fight and picking sides ? Why not simply avoid joining NATO and the EU, avoid angering Russia or the EU/NATO. Why doesn't Ukraine simply be pragmatic and extend closer ties to the EU while simultaneously trading with the emerging economies of Russia/China from the other side of the border ?

The way I see this is that after being forced out of Afghanistan, the American military industrial complex and American defense contractors specifically now need a new war in order for them to secure more trillions from American taxpayers.

Russia is the perfect boogeyman. What better way than by plotting a coup in Ukraine in 2015, bring neo Nazis to power. The first law they passed was to BAN the Russian language despite more than 1/3rd of Ukrainians being native speakers. Imagine if this happened even in Canada, with a coup and a subsequent declaration to ban French and French/Quebecois language rights. The French would immediately respond by holding referendums and declaring independence from Canada right ?

It's so obvious, so then why ? Well these are the same people who funded, trained, supported Bin Laden in the 80's, Saddam and they gave him chemical weapons in the 80's and in Syria they supported, funded, trained the "moderate" rebels (head choppers) and now they sparked a coup in Ukraine while expanding NATO steadily eastwards towards Russia to essentially force Putin/Russia's hand in order to guarantee their security.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Eisenhower knew exactly what was coming when he gave that speech about the military industrial complex but it's 1000x worse than anything that he ever could have imagined in his wildest nightmares.

1) USD to Russian ruble was 24 in 2008 its over 80 now. That is a very sharp increase.

2) US doesn’t have LNG capacity to feed all of Europe. Even Qatar doesn’t have capacity at this moment as LNG shipping can never catch up to a pipeline.

3) Iran inflation is 40% yoy and more than half of the country is in poverty. Just because economy is “growing” this year is irrelevant. You have to look at the totality of the economy, not take one metric during one timeframe. Neither does shipping 1-1.5M bpd as that is not enough to turn around Iran’s economic fortunes. Iran was shipping that much during JCPOA and its economic situation was still deteriorating.

4) Russia currency reserves is 500-600B, but you can ask Saudi Arabia (Yemen conflict) how fast that can disappear when you are in military conflicts. In case of Russia, defending your currency you can easily burn 50-100B at a time to “stabilize” your currency. Russia spent 6-10B in one month alone couple years ago to try to stabilize.

That is why Iran stopped defending the toman too much now because it was a ploy to make Iran burn its currency reserves and gold reserves. So either your people accept hardship or you lose your warchest. Cant have both.

Need to be unbiased here if you cannot be unbiased then healthy discussions are fruitless. 2007 Toman was 1.2 now is 28+. That is beyond normal currency inflation. Not entirely sanctions fault, a lot is economic mismanagement due to terrible economic policy and lack of innovation.


China is probably the only “non west” power that can withstand US and Western sanctions relatively well.

As for Russia, I don’t think the story is over just yet. You don’t move 190K troops to take two regions that were virtually under your control to begin with.

 

[Stryker1982]

Actually Putin support is at all time lows within Russia if you compare it to 2010 and 2005. The oligarchs will support him because it’s symbiotic relationship.

Russia ruble is being crushed and Russian economy hasn’t been stellar either.

The average man is short sighted and doesn’t care about the the “Great Power Games”. He cares about today and tommorrow. He cares about himself. Average citizen is quick to turn on his government when the going gets tough.

As for sanctions, Russia does rely on high tech imports for its oil/gas industry, semiconductor, etc.

As long as it can sell its oil and gas (to Europe) it will survive, but if US sanctions oil/gas then russia is Iran 2.0 waiting to happen.

I don’t think that will happen, Europe is still too reliant on Russian gas to be able to wean itself. And unlike Iran, Russia is a top 3 oil supplier in the world so sanction Russian oil will cause pain to the whole world. Whereas in case of Iran’s 1-2M barrels export was easily made up by Saudi’s overpumping alongside rest of OPEC.

But US can cause the Russian PEOPLE a lot of pain and that is it’s nefarious endgame in ALL sanctions schemes....to hurt the people of a country and break them down.

I should add one thing, Russia has enormous reserves of gold that they have been accumulating over the last 10 years probably in anticipation of this very moment. Theirs quite a major uptick and trend starting from 2014.

 

[TheImmortal]

I should add one thing, Russia has enormous reserves of gold that they have been accumulating over the last 10 years probably in anticipation of this very moment. Theirs quite a major uptick and trend starting from 2014.

Means nothing if it’s not in the hands of the people.

Gold sitting in a vault doesn’t do much good. Wasting it to defend a currency that is in free fall is even worse idea.

500-600B dollars sounds like a lot, until you realize it needs to last at least 10 years. Which means that in reality, Russia shouldn’t spend more 50-70B a year from reserves to support its economy and its people from sanctions effects.

Again that’s not a whole a lot when you consider they spent 6B+ In one month to support the ruble years ago. Saudi Arabia was spending 15B+ per month for its Yemen war and was rapidly depleting its currency reserves.

Thus Putin could easily end up spending 20B+ a month if his Ukraine offensive turns into a full blown conquest of Kiyv.

So yes big currency reserves (and gold), but again that disappears fast when your supporting (sheltering) a nation from sanctions and funding a war effort.

 

[sha ah]

10 years ? Are you mad ? More like 2 weeks or a few months at the most. Believe me this won't take long. Putin is not going to try and occupy urban centers. His military will quickly cut off all the various parts of Ukraine from each other and surround all the major cities and border check points.

By then that stooge Zelensky will have already fled or will be captured and Putin can put him in the same cell as Navelny. Anyone who resists will be incinerated from the air by Putin's massive Armata of jets and drones. They will have to come to terms with the real situation on the ground.

As a last resort, Russians can cut off their heat and natural gas. However it won't come to that, believe me the Ukrainian people are not stupid. They will quickly recognize Russia's military superiority and conform to reasonable terms under a new treaty.

Means nothing if it’s not in the hands of the people.

Gold sitting in a vault doesn’t do much good. Wasting it to defend a currency that is in free fall is even worse idea.

500-600B dollars sounds like a lot, until you realize it needs to last at least 10 years. Which means that in reality, Russia shouldn’t spend more 50-70B a year from reserves to support its economy and its people from sanctions effects.

Again that’s not a whole a lot when you consider they spent 6B+ In one month to support the ruble years ago. Saudi Arabia was spending 15B+ per month for its Yemen war and was rapidly depleting its currency reserves.

Thus Putin could easily end up spending 20B+ a month if his Ukraine offensive turns into a full blown conquest of Kiyv.

So yes big currency reserves (and gold), but again that disappears fast when your supporting (sheltering) a nation from sanctions and funding a war effort.

 

[Shawnee]

I don’t think Ukraine will be Yemen or Afghanistan and the war will last 10 years. Westerners like to think like that.

Ukraine is not Yemen more like Serbia.

 

[aryobarzan]

Weaponizing dollar (SWIFT) and weaponizing Trade (Sanctions)..US has overplayed her hand..World has taken note of being blackmailed by the US.....New Economic system will evolve..IF Iran could survive and defeat those weapons so will Russia...and so will China (next on the list)

Watch Dr Zhivago movie..Russia can endure a lot..

 

[TheImmortal]

10 years ? Are you mad ?

I don’t think Ukraine will be Yemen or Afghanistan and the war will last 10 years. Westerners like to think like that.

Ukraine is not Yemen more like Serbia.

Seems reading comprehension is neither of your guys’ strong suit. I ment 10 years in the context of sanctions staying in place, not a war lasting 10 years. The central bank must assume sanctions will last. When the West slaps on sanctions, they RARELY remove them and find other “pretexts” to slap more on.

Just ask Iran.

Iran went from selling its oil freely for 30 years to now needing quarterly permission slips from “marg Ba Emrika” to even sell a paltry 1-1.5M BPD to countries around the world.

 

[Stryker1982]

Means nothing if it’s not in the hands of the people.

Gold sitting in a vault doesn’t do much good. Wasting it to defend a currency that is in free fall is even worse idea.

500-600B dollars sounds like a lot, until you realize it needs to last at least 10 years. Which means that in reality, Russia shouldn’t spend more 50-70B a year from reserves to support its economy and its people from sanctions effects.

Again that’s not a whole a lot when you consider they spent 6B+ In one month to support the ruble years ago. Saudi Arabia was spending 15B+ per month for its Yemen war and was rapidly depleting its currency reserves.

Thus Putin could easily end up spending 20B+ a month if his Ukraine offensive turns into a full blown conquest of Kiyv.

So yes big currency reserves (and gold), but again that disappears fast when your supporting (sheltering) a nation from sanctions and funding a war effort.

I'm aware of the consumption rates

My point is that their reserves play an important role in making very big decisions, and it's reserve size to me indicates they can weather some storms for a few years at which point they may have already agreed to a settlement with NATO + Ukraine. Their is a co-dependency here between Russia and Europe that does not exist with Iran. So I certainly see incentive in removing imposed sanction if a settlement is made. If they had not done this since 2014, the western nations would have to deal with far less resilience in the negotiation phase.

 

[Messerschmitt]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496190117840670725

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496190123788099587

 

[Stryker1982]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496190117840670725

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496190123788099587

More sanctions on Russia, might be just the incentive required to sell Su-35's to Iran.

Billions of dollars deal on modernization of aircraft, helicopters, transport aircraft and civilian helicopters.
Maybe that is just empty talk though.