Iranian Chill Thread

[SalarHaqq]

Abdullah Abdullah has requested humanitarian aid from Iran.

Abdullah was Iran's preferred candidate at the Afghan presidential election. Ghani however was favored by the US regime. No wonder, given Ghani's readiness to act against Iran.

Many don't realize that in the toppled Afghan regime, people had gained the upper hand who were no friends of Iran. Praised by reformists like Zibakalam as "politically more advanced and more democratic than Iran" (!), this regime is said to have sent across the border spies disguised as refugees on behalf of the Americans, threatened to block the flow of the Helmand river and so on.

According to Raefipour, the Ghani administration even placed wahhabi teachers financed by the Saudis in Sunni madrasas of Afghanistan. Dostom, whose daughter attacked Iran in a recent Tweet shared here by user Shawnee, reportedly was favoring sectarianist elements in cooperation with Turkey.

ToloNews / Tolo TV, one of the showcase media created under the supposedly democratic, US-installed Afghan regime, is clearly biased against Iran, but on a secularist / liberal line.

Here's another great and balanced analysis by Raefipour on the situation in Afghanistan:

 

[sha ah]

Believe it or not the Taliban are less hostile to Iran than the previous US backed Afghan puppet government. On the other hand, Massoud has deep ties with Zionists so why would Iran prop up either of them ? Strategic patience and diplomacy are the best option here

Is there a source for this? Taleban leaders and their families would have tended to find refuge in Pakistan before requesting asylum in Iran.



Maybe it did.




Masoud has close ties with zionist agent Bernard Henri Levy and is ideologically influenced by the west, particularly France, which he perceives as a "model". He never asked Iran for help either, preferring to place his hopes on the Americans.

So here we have one party whose loyalty already goes to the enemy, and another one that may possibly change its loyalty in the future... This does not warrant support for the former against the latter.

- - - - -



The Quds Force and by extension shahid Soleimani are the architects of the normalization of ties with the Taliban. It's 100% an IRGC policy, which is why you see the liberal (reformist / centrist) crowd going into overdrive advocating for intervention in Afghanistan... Moroever the goal of the reformists is to to get Iran bogged down over there, which they hope will lead to disengagement from Palestine, Lebanon and Syria (in accordance with their favorite slogan "na Ghazzeh, na Lobnan, janam fadaye Iran").



IR decision makers are privy to classified information. If they estimate that Masoud junior has gone a bit too far in connecting with the zio-American camp, they surely have good reasons to do so.



It's not a matter of military and technical feasability but of the political consequences of Iran entering a war in Afghanistan. If Iran did that, then Afghan territory being used as a terrorist breeding ground against Iran would no longer be a remote possibility but a certainty. So would Pakistani involvement. Such trigger happiness would be politically short sighted, especially now given the economic situation and the need to rebuild Syria and Iraq, in addition to assisting Lebanon and Venezuela.



Hence why civil war in Afghanistan should be averted, not fuelled.

 

[SalarHaqq]

Believe it or not the Taliban are less hostile to Iran than the previous US backed Afghan puppet government. On the other hand, Massoud has deep ties with Zionists so why would Iran prop up either of them ? Strategic patience and diplomacy are the best option here

True that. Which is of course not to say Iran should lower its guard. Iran has plan B readied, but will only enact it if actually needed, which to date has not been the case.

I'd recommend watching the above video from Raefipour. His analysis is highly nuanced and reflects what we have both been saying here. It also includes lots of little known information.

 

[Maula Jatt]

Abdullah was Iran's preferred candidate at the Afghan presidential election. Ghani however was favored by the US regime. No wonder, given Ghani's readiness to act against Iran.

Many don't realize that in toppled Afghan regime, people had gained the upper hand who were no friends of Iran. Praised by reformists like Zibakalam as "politically more advanced than Iran" (!), it sent across the border spies disguised as refugees on behalf of the Americans according to some reports, threatened to block the flow of the Helmand river, and so on. According to Raefipour, Ghani even favored the opening of wahhabi madrasas in Afghanistan, as did Dostom, whose daughter attacked Iran in a recent Tweet shared here by user Shawnee.

Tolo News / Tolo TV, one of the showcase media created under the supposedly democratic, US-installed Afghan regime, is clearly biased against Iran.

Here's another great and balanced analysis by Raefipour on the situation in Afghanistan:

Abdullah was well liked by Pak intelligence and GOP and he is a Pashtun too

I know they just announced interim gov but for actual gov we should force Talibs to give Abdullah an important role in thier government as he is well liked by everyone in the region, is an old face can guide thier government, and ofcourse is well known in international circles so bring legitimacy to thier rule

Iran should go and back him tbh, he is good for the region, Afghans and tbh Taliban too

But we will need stick and carrots diplomacy with Talibs to make this work

 

[Shawnee]

غربی ها واقعا فکر میکردند دوربینهای اژانس سر جاشه و داره کار میکنه. اونها دستور مجلس رو به تخم مبارک هم نگرفته بودند و حالا با قلبی شکسته دوربینهای شکسته رو تماشا کردند

واقعا فکر میکردند دوربینها هنوز کار میکنه چون ایران دنبال تنش نیست

همشون گیج اند الان

و قطعنامه سازمان ملل یا اژانس حتی اگر تصویب هم بشه ارزشی نمادین داره

​

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1435325451593940995

 

[Dariush the Great]

Iran has Experience building allies in Afghanistan in the Northern Alliance. Furthermore, a few Iranian drones like Gaza, Shahrud-129, and Kaman-22 and F-4’s would have decimated Taliban advance while allowing Shah’s forces to hold their ground.

Just look at what a few Turkish drones did to Syria in Idlib province or what they did to Armenian forces in Armenia-Azeri war.

I don’t trust the Taliban one bit. Cant expect savages to think with logic. There PR image attempt isn’t fooling anyone.

Not wise. Taliban has not engaged in Anti-Iran activities for the last 20 years. Iran-Taliban borders are respected and calm. So why start anti-Taliban activities now? For the pro-US/Israeli Panjshiri elements?

I would be more worried of Israeli-Persian gulf arab nations alliance than Pakistan/Taliban. I am not concerned about the latter in anyway. Pakistani establishment is pro Iran (cultural).

 

[Aramagedon]

Iran has a lot of sway in Afghanistan despite what some here think. Iran resumed fuel and gas transfers to Taliban at their request. They are desperate for trade and energy. Iran is one of Afghanistan’s biggest trading partner. Iran has a lot of leverage over the Taliban especially given that leaders and their families have passed thru or found refuge in Iran since 2001.

So Iran could have merely told Taliban thru diplomatic channels that it should halt its advance in Panjshir. No one is saying Iran should have down a full ground invasion to save Panjshir.

But it seems Iran is so busy getting the US out of the door that it forgers Sunni terrorists change loyalty at a dime of a hat. What’s stopping tomorrow Israel or House of Saud to pay Taliban to do hit and run attacks on Iranian border guards or assist Balchoui terrorists to better infiltrate Iran?

Like I said this whole “their country, their rules” motto is pure ignorance when Iran’s enemies continually look for rogue groups (Balouchi terrorists, Kurdish terrorists, Arab separatists, etc) to exploit and sow disorder within Iran’s borders.

Iran has Experience building allies in Afghanistan in the Northern Alliance. Furthermore, a few Iranian drones like Gaza, Shahrud-129, and Kaman-22 and F-4’s would have decimated Taliban advance while allowing Shah’s forces to hold their ground.

Just look at what a few Turkish drones did to Syria in Idlib province or what they did to Armenian forces in Armenia-Azeri war.

I don’t trust the Taliban one bit. Cant expect savages to think with logic. There PR image attempt isn’t fooling anyone.

You're a new trump you superrr dumbb

 

[jauk]

Given Iran's strategy of removing the US from it's sphere of influence, the recent takeover by the Taliban is a huge step in achieving that. Taliban's future actions will be just another 'local' issue which may or may not need to be handled. I'm optimistic. The Taliban will be good for Afghanistan and maybe Iran too.

The next pieces are SA and the UAE. SA is under tremendous pressure by the US AND Iran...They *will* crack. That said, I don't believe Iran's strategy is to collapse the SA but to create an enviroment devoid of the US. The biggest issue is for SA to extract itself. Even if it wanted to they'll have a rough road ahead...they're in a bad situation of their own making and the US will not let go easily. Iran here should provide real options for SA and help them, 'somehow' achieve them. UAE, OTOH, may simply fall in line and reduce the heat which may prove sufficient for Iran. Note, there is a large Iranian community in the UAE. We'll see how this unfolds.

 

[sha ah]

Syrian army enters Daara Al Balad with Russian military police

Daraa: Al-Assad forces, accompanied by the Russian military police, entered the neighborhoods of Daraa Al-Balad to start an inspection campaign, according to one of the terms of the agreement between the members of the Central Committee and Russia Da

Daraa: Al-Assad forces, accompanied by the Russian military police, entered the neighborhoods of Daraa Al-Balad to start an inspection campaign, according to one of the terms of the agreement between the members of the Central Committee and Russia. Explore Syrian Civil War news on live map in...

syria.liveuamap.com

Do these guys never learn ? They always end up in green buses

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431380823828221964

Taliban beat journalists who filmed yesterdays protests

https://twitter.com/x/status/1435554933626089475

Anti Taliban forces in Afghanistan vow to fight the "illegitimate government" stating that the illusion of an "inclusive" Taliban has been shattered since they did not appoint any women or various ethnic groups into the government. Some believe that a drawn out civil war inevitable. Only time will tell but for now the Taliban are in full control of the country.

Meanwhile the foreign ministers of Afghanistan's neighboring countries, including Iran, Pakistan, China, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan hold a virtual summit to discuss various security issues regarding Afghanistan

China expands influence into Afghanistan

https://twitter.com/x/status/1435619506974433281

I feel sorry for some of the people of Afghanistan yet at the same time their army had an airforce, better weapons, the numbers, yet they chose not to fight. This is the end result.

 

[sha ah]

I feel sorry for these women. The men who were supposed to defend them did not want to find. Instead they ran away into the laps of America and their leaders plundered all of the nations wealth and ran. Taliban have not allowed any women in the government. Not minorities either. What a surprise.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1435504875618635783

 

[Stryker1982]

I feel sorry for these women. The men who were supposed to defend them did not want to find. Instead they ran away into the laps of America and their leaders plundered all of the nations wealth and ran. Taliban have not allowed any women in the government. Not minorities either. What a surprise.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1435504875618635783

What’s the situation in Panjshir? Seems like they (resistance) are struggling to hold ground?

 

[Stryker1982]

Given Iran's strategy of removing the US from it's sphere of influence, the recent takeover by the Taliban is a huge step in achieving that. Taliban's future actions will be just another 'local' issue which may or may not need to be handled. I'm optimistic. The Taliban will be good for Afghanistan and maybe Iran too.

The next pieces are SA and the UAE. SA is under tremendous pressure by the US AND Iran...They *will* crack. That said, I don't believe Iran's strategy is to collapse the SA but to create an enviroment devoid of the US. The biggest issue is for SA to extact itself. Even if it wanted to they'll have a rough road ahead...they're in a bad situation of their own making and the US will not let go easily. Iran here should provide real options for SA and help them, 'somehow' achieve them. UAE, OTOH, may simply fall in line and reduce the heat which may prove suficient for Iran. We'll see.

As far as I’m aware, the only major problem with SA is the crown prince. Otherwise, if another prince would be in charge with a different view, their would probably not be much cold relations. Relations with the SA were fine during the old kings time. Probably impossible to get the US out of SA, but if you are talking about military presence of course it’s possible but naturally many countries would like economic relations with the US.

Bin Salmans biggest pressure comes from inside, which is being influenced from the outside. his constituency that want him out.

 

[Cthulhu]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1434781061402202112

https://twitter.com/x/status/1434806925976342529

دو توییت متضاد طی دو ساعت
نوکری برای آمریکا و طلبکاری برای ایران

با وجود داشتن چند برابر نیروی جنگی و زرهی بهتر و پول بیشتر و حمایت جهانی و قدرت مدیا نبرد رو در اثر تنبلی و بی انگیزگی و بی خاصیتی باختند

مثل کردها باید حمایت تضمینی امریکا رو تا ابد میداشتند تا بجنگند

اینها کجا حوثی ها کجا​

Honestly this is the best response someone gave to this guy:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1434816499198349312

 

[sha ah]

The USA / NATO can never win in Afghanistan. One British MP mentioned the lack of strategic patience and he pointed to Japan and South Korea as examples. However he's wrong, it's not about patience, it's about the geography.

Japan is an island nation and the US has direct access via the pacific. South Korea, it might as well be an island, since it's only land border is shared with North Korea and that is controlled via the DMZ which is on lockdown.

Afghanistan is a landlocked nation, mountainous, with porous borders and none of it's neighbors were too found of the US presence including Iran, Pakistan, China, Russia. It's the same thing with Vietnam which shared borders with several nations and it's borders were impossible to control because of the thick jungles.

I mean there are lots of things that the US did wrong. Lots of things the Afghan leadership did wrong. The situation did not have to end like that but realistically the geography and geo-politics make Afghanistan extremely difficult to control, especially for a country like the USA which is on the other side of the globe.

Honestly this is the best response someone gave to this guy:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1434816499198349312