Iranian Chill Thread

[Shawnee]

In my opinion, with or without JCPOA, they will attack us anyways or I should say, atleast have the major desire to attack.

Without JCPOA, they will work on creating a causus belli and a threat perception through the diplomatic front
With the JCPOA, Iran has voluntarily weakened itself by reducing the scale and technology level of it's nuclear program, leaving a rapid nuclearization process during the event of war in burning ashes. All in exchange for economic benefits that can easily be backtracked or unreliable. Sure, Iran is out of major sanctions, but they will still blacklist the country. With the nuclear threat out of the way, it opens the doors for them to attack and not worry about Iran breaking out of the nuclear threshold state.

The only way they attack someone is after they are sure they are defanged.

Fangs are inside IAEA questions and beyond, in the mountains, dispersed and protected.

Natanz and Fordow are just a show for politics.

Without JCPOA, huge escalations are on the way which might include warlike situations and nuclear tests.

There will come a day when Henry Rome, Eric Brewer and Norman Roule will look down before Jeffrey Lewis and Peter Pry.
————————-
Jeffery Lewis: Your system will not conclude in a deal.

Peter Pry: It is over.

Everybody else: Give them a few bucks if they defang themselves.
No worries. It works.
The regime is at its weakest.
Let me show you the inflation chart. The Rial devaluation chart is here too. See. We need to show them they have to be more flexible.

IRGC: Soleimani, Soleimani, Soleimani

Khamenei: Patience guys

 

[SalarHaqq]

Why is there no coronavirus crisis in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, asks Aghaye Tahlilgar. A serious question indeed.

 

[TheImmortal]

Interesting how they used suicide drones rather than missile strikes this time around. They went easy on them if you ask me. In any case it's not as if they weren't warned to stop messing around.

Because you use missiles on fixed infrastructure targets. Not fighters moving thru forest encampments. The fact a drone was used means the target was mobile or else they could have S-129 or Mohajer just laser targets for artillery teams like they normally do.

 

[sha ah]

Look what happened to them in Afghanistan, an impovrished and backwards country with high illiteracy. After that do they really have the stomach for Iran ? I doubt it. They also said that they would not tolerate a nuclear North Korea. Kim called their bluff and went nuclear. They couldn't do anything other than watch and whine.

In my opinion, with or without JCPOA, they will attack us anyways or I should say, atleast have the major desire to attack.

Without JCPOA, they will work on creating a causus belli and a threat perception through the diplomatic front
With the JCPOA, Iran has voluntarily weakened itself by reducing the scale and technology level of it's nuclear program, leaving a rapid nuclearization process during the event of war in burning ashes. All in exchange for economic benefits that can easily be backtracked or unreliable. Sure, Iran is out of major sanctions, but they will still blacklist the country. With the nuclear threat out of the way, it opens the doors for them to attack and not worry about Iran breaking out of the nuclear threshold state.

 

[sha ah]

Former defense official says she was pressured to minimize injuries of 100 US troops from 2020 Iranian missile strike.

Trump admin sought to play down troop injuries in Iraq: Official

Former defence official says she was pressured to minimise injuries of 110 US troops from 2020 Iranian missile strike.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[sha ah]

Even Indians don't want American trash

Ford Motor Company bails on India, will shut car factories there

Ford India racked up more than $2bn in losses over the past decade.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[sha ah]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1435863389826428928

https://twitter.com/x/status/1435886862305054721

https://twitter.com/x/status/1435859006837465090

 

[Muhammed45]

Guys, good news. Sauds are withdrawing from Marib

رÛاض در Øا٠تخÙÛÙ ÙÛر٠٠سÙاØâÙØ§Û Ø³ÙÚ¯Û٠از Ùأرب است

ÛÚ© کارÙا٠ÙظاÙÛ Ø§Ø² ÙÛرÙÙØ§Û Ø³Ø¹ÙØ¯Û ØµØ¨Ø Ø§ÙرÙز Ù¾ÙجشÙب٠در شر٠شÙر Ùأرب [Ùرکز استا٠Ùأرب] Ú©ÙÛÙ Ø®Ùرد. ÙØ¨Ú¯Ø§Ù Ø®Ø¨Ø±Û Â«Ø§ÙبÙابة اÙاخبارÛØ© اÙÛÙÙÛة» گزارش Ú©Ø±Ø¯Ø Ø®Ø¨Ø±Ùا ØکاÛت ÙÛâÚ©Ùد ک٠رÛاض تخÙÛÙ Ùأرب از ÙÛرÙÙا Ù...

www.mashreghnews.ir

 

[aryobarzan]

Simple acts of Kindness..

Iranian Regular Army special Forces currently stationed along the Afghan border area helping Afghan orphans who have made it to the border area by walking....amazing kids ..Amazing soldiers ..

 

[Shawnee]

Simple acts of Kindness..

Iranian Regular Army special Forces currently stationed along the Afghan border area helping Afghan orphans who have made it to the border area by walking....amazing kids ..Amazing soldiers ..

View attachment 776831
View attachment 776832
View attachment 776833

اگه این جای دیگه بود صفحه اول سی ان ان میرفت

 

[sha ah]

I'm skeptical about this since MBS is so stubborn. The truth is that the Saudis have lost the war in Yemen whether they like it or not.

Hodeidah was a major goal for them. Despite having air supremacy, they could not capture it. Taiz is surrounded from every side. Aden, the Houthis now control the highway which leads to it, the Hadi backers are most likely packing their bags as we speak. Other than that what do they have Marib ? And Marib is also surrounded and they're constantly under pressure.

This war was a disaster for the Saudis. Money can buy alot of things but money cannot buy bravery, integrity, grit, honor, friendship, etc. MBS is learning this the hard way after having spent his entire life living in privilege.

I mean this is a guy that spent $450 million on a Davinci painting for his own private yatch. That probably gave him an ego boost during the Yemen war, but the truth is that his army is as effective as the Afghan security forces. No motivation, no determination. Why would they be determined ? Determined to do what ? Expand the territory of an authoritarian state run by an overly privileged brat who never worked a day in his life ? Who would die for that ? LOL

Guys, good news. Sauds are withdrawing from Marib

رÛاض در Øا٠تخÙÛÙ ÙÛر٠٠سÙاØâÙØ§Û Ø³ÙÚ¯Û٠از Ùأرب است

ÛÚ© کارÙا٠ÙظاÙÛ Ø§Ø² ÙÛرÙÙØ§Û Ø³Ø¹ÙØ¯Û ØµØ¨Ø Ø§ÙرÙز Ù¾ÙجشÙب٠در شر٠شÙر Ùأرب [Ùرکز استا٠Ùأرب] Ú©ÙÛÙ Ø®Ùرد. ÙØ¨Ú¯Ø§Ù Ø®Ø¨Ø±Û Â«Ø§ÙبÙابة اÙاخبارÛØ© اÙÛÙÙÛة» گزارش Ú©Ø±Ø¯Ø Ø®Ø¨Ø±Ùا ØکاÛت ÙÛâÚ©Ùد ک٠رÛاض تخÙÛÙ Ùأرب از ÙÛرÙÙا Ù...

www.mashreghnews.ir

So those few dozen US soldiers who never returned to duty. What happened to them ? No investigation ? I wonder.

Former defense official says she was pressured to minimize injuries of 100 US troops from 2020 Iranian missile strike.

Trump admin sought to play down troop injuries in Iraq: Official

Former defence official says she was pressured to minimise injuries of 110 US troops from 2020 Iranian missile strike.

www.aljazeera.com

Iranians are the real heros. Not these pieces of trash who say they care about womens rights. And what about all the Afghan women and children that got blown to pieces with drone strikes ? Cyrus was the real hero, freeing slaves 2000 years before the US was founded by slave owners.

Simple acts of Kindness..

Iranian Regular Army special Forces currently stationed along the Afghan border area helping Afghan orphans who have made it to the border area by walking....amazing kids ..Amazing soldiers ..

View attachment 776831
View attachment 776832
View attachment 776833

 

[TheImmortal]

I'm skeptical about this since MBS is so stubborn. The truth is that the Saudis have lost the war in Yemen whether they like it or not.

Hodeidah was a major goal for them. Despite having air supremacy, they could not capture it. Taiz is surrounded from every side. Aden, the Houthis now control the highway which leads to it, the Hadi backers are most likely packing their bags as we speak. Other than that what do they have Marib ? And Marib is also surrounded and they're constantly under pressure.

This war was a disaster for the Saudis. Money can buy alot of things but money cannot buy bravery, integrity, grit, honor, friendship, etc. MBS is learning this the hard way after having spent his entire life living in privilege.

I mean this is a guy that spent $450 million on a Davinci painting for his own private yatch. That probably gave him an ego boost during the Yemen war, but the truth is that his army is as effective as the Afghan security forces. No motivation, no determination. Why would they be determined ? Determined to do what ? Expand the territory of an authoritarian state run by an overly privileged brat who never worked a day in his life ? Who would die for that ? LOL

The issue is you cannot fight a war using mercenaries. When UAE and Saudi Troops were involved there was decent mercenaries movement after establishing beachhead at Aden. But then UAE left (the most effective fighting force out of the group) and Saudi’s also pulled most their forces and replaced them with mercenaries from Africa.

The non foreign fighting force on the ground is simply not strong compared to Youthi’s and former Yemen Army soldiers. The Saudi backed forces arent Syrian terrorists which were compromised of some decent and well armed experienced fighters from around the world. They are at best middle tier fighting force and worst a low tier fighting force on the ground.

Air power without corresponding ground power (think Russia + Iran in Syria) is not going to work.

 

[sha ah]

Correct me if I'm mistaken but the Houthis never took Aden did they ? The Saudis were never required to implement an amphibious landing or fight to take the city back ? I'm pretty certain the Saudis simply landed in Aden and used their air support to blunt the Houthis advance towards Aden.

Yes but the reason the UAE/Saudi withdrew their forces was to avoid mass casualties and humiliation. Again you can buy weapons, uniforms, training but you cannot buy motivation. Without air support and foreign support, the Houthis probably would have taken Saudi Arabia already.

Before the western powers became involved in the middle east it was always the Iranians on one side and the Turks on the other. Those were two spheres of influence. Everything else you see today, most of these modern states are artificial, puppets like the Afghan puppet state. They are built on foundations of sand.

It's true mercenaries are there to make money and get out. They will never fight to the death the same way a patriotic soldier will to defend his country and family.

It's funny because the UAE even deployed French Leclerc tanks near Aden but I suppose they did not want to lose those shiny tanks and perhaps the French begged them not to allow their tanks to end up like the Turkish Leopards that were annihilated by ISIS in northern Syria.

So the Persian Gulf Arab kingdoms have all these shiny, brand new weapons but they're too afraid to use them in war. The Saudi military is just as incompetent, unmotivated and incapable.

Most of the Saudi soldiers are there to make an easy living. They do not wan to risk their lives. They do not want to fight against fellow Arabs. They do not want to risk anything for a spoiled, overly privileged brat who worships the Zionist world order.

I heard that MBS himself is protected by CIA and Mossad body guards. I honestly would not doubt it for a second. After losing in Yemen he will probably fall deeper into drugs addiction. Perhaps by then his father will be fed up and will take away his privileges. The war in Yemen has been as disaster, a complete and utter humiliation for the Saudis.

The issue is you cannot fight a war using mercenaries. When UAE and Saudi Troops were involved there was decent mercenaries movement after establishing beachhead at Aden. But then UAE left (the most effective fighting force out of the group) and Saudi’s also pulled most their forces and replaced them with mercenaries from Africa.

The non foreign fighting force on the ground is simply not strong compared to Youthi’s and former Yemen Army soldiers. The Saudi backed forces arent Syrian terrorists which were compromised of some decent and well armed experienced fighters from around the world. They are at best middle tier fighting force and worst a low tier fighting force on the ground.

Air power without corresponding ground power (think Russia + Iran in Syria) is not going to work.

 

[Dariush the Great]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1435778508580663296

If Henry is correct here (it is an if), Iran has been planning for an over escalation for months.

Anyway, without JCPOA, it will be only a matter of months until Iran chooses to escalate to 90% enrichment or further dissociation from IAEA.

Best way out of it to give Khamenei a reason to trust them. Why should Khamenei consider even partially defanging himself and ignore Trump 2024?

Henry Rome has no plan for Trump 2024. He offers a substantial few bucks, which is zilch for Iran. He cannot think in Khamenei shoes.

Khameni will choose anything including a full war over a few bucks.

Their deadly mistake is underestimating Iranian nuclear and space program.

Their othrr mistake is banking on “break out time” myth.

Without JCPOA, sooner or later mullahs in Iran will decide that they have milked this political enrichment show to its extreme and it is time to show their ultimate power.

They prefer to do the show under a Trump-like president but who knows. Sequence of events can go out of hand.

These politicians are not militarists or nuclear scientists and they cannot make correct nuclear assessments.

Iran is comfortable with a 1-2 years breakout time. Depending on Western stupidity it can be shortened to 3-6 months. Another stupid sabotage attempt would force Iran to enrich to 90%. And honestly it looks like it is going that way. I am OK with a few months breakout time. Let the enemies stress forever.

Iran has the longest breath.

 

[sha ah]

So during this speech, we hear the British MP talk about strategic patience and how the US lost in Afghanistan because of a lack of strategic patience. He points to the examples of Japan, South Korea.

However I disagree. It was a good speech but in my mind it's more about geography and the terrain.

Look at Japan. It's an island nation and the US has direct access via the Pacific. Simultaneously after WW2 all of the Japanese people were obedient to the Emperor.

South Korea, might as well be an island nation since the US has direct access and the only land border is with North Korea. The DMZ is completely mined, manned and closed off. There are no thick jungles or problematic terrain. It's like an iron wall.

Vietnam, yes the US has access via the Pacific but Vietnam shares long land borders with several nations. North Vietnam had direct access to Communist China. North and South Vietnam were seperated by thick jungles. The terrain made it impossible to stamp out the enemy who were relentless.

Afghanistan, the USA DOES NOT have direct access. Iran is a no go. Former Soviet states aligned with Russia, not suitable. India, through Kashmir and a narrow choke point ? No.

Pakistan, the US flies over and they supported NATO but there were also elements in Pakistan who steadfast supported the Taliban. As the Taliban said, "You have the watches but we have the time" The terrain, coupled with a relentless, fanatical adversary, made it an impossible task to nation build in Afghanistan.

Regardless it was a good speech. I'll give him that.