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Iranian Chill Thread

95% is dating back to P-Gulf War 1 mostly against SCUDs that don’t separate warhead from body which allows for very high interception rate. But Houthi’s have fired since Jan 2019 let’s say 100 BMs into Saudi Territory (not sure the exact amount).

If 10-15 have connected inside a ADS actual kill zone sphere that is still a very good interception rate. Anything above 50% is acceptable, 75% is great, 90% or more superb when it comes to ABM interception. Cruise missiles is different since BM is terminal at Mach 4-12 (depending on the missile) and the other is 300-500mph. Much more energy penalty in interceptor going after CM to make errors than in BM interceptor.

Again a similar ballistic attack took place in March 2020 and the missile evaded interception (against 2 PAC-3s I believe) and hit an open field small crater Due to warhead being less than 200kg (maybe as low as 100kg).

Iranian missiles used in Al-Assad base that impacted open terrain (runway) had moderate craters and they were carrying 750kg by comparison and using more higher chemical composition explosive for their warheads.

I can't speak with certainty but from a OSINT report I saw quite a while back, the majority of BM's used against SA, were targeted towards Khamis Mushait on the border with Yemen which would indicate the missiles used would be in the Fateh-110 class, (300km) range and less (150km)(Badr 1-P). Obviously this makes sense considering the less material and financial cost of making these compared to a larger and heavier missile.

PAC-2/3's deployed in the area appear to be performing well against these class of missiles <300km, which may even be considered tactical battlefield artillery rockets because of the short range instead of ballistic missiles. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone considering the slower speeds, no separable RV and very low volume of fire. As one can imagine firing 2 Fateh-110 class missiles in an area with a couple battalions of PAC-2/3's won't do much good.

But when moving onto Qiam-like class missiles (Burkhan-1, Improved Burkhan-2H), it appears they are struggling to intercept these and their are many videos online that show several interceptors need to be fired to intercept one RV, and that is of no guarantee either.

With this in mind, Fateh-313 and Zulfiqar missiles would fare much better and anything beyond that would be even more difficult to handle like the mass produced Qiam. Suffice to say, I am doubtful on the success of this anti-BM system because of it's difficulty in handling anything superior to a Fateh-110. Still, it has protected them well otherwise they'd have been in big trouble in their airbases in Khumis Mushait.

This whole separable re-entry vehicle design is really the main causing major issues for all systems for reasons we all know of already.
 
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I have already agreed with some of your points of a semi flawed justice system towards criminals who are minorities vs criminals who are whites. But you just want to sit and blame everything on racism and the reason a certain segment in society is being held back....with that type of thinking in 200 years nothing will change for blacks in America because they will still be complaining about slavery from 600 years ago.

My point: Life isn’t fair many countries have done awful things to their own citizens or neighbors. Either you keep complaining about the past (I’m talking about slavery here not police brutality) or you move on and try to better yourself and your people. Right now many in the AA community are thriving and doing just that while others want to sit and blame their entire problems on systemic racism and slavery.

Interestingly though, Jews who were cited before as an example of successful integration in the US have much of their zionist-oriented elites (I'm not talking about Jews in general) rely heavily on the politcal instrumentalization of historic persecutions (particularly of WW2) as a lever of power. In fact, this victimization strategy constitutes one of the major pillars underpinning the power and influence wielded by zionist and/or messianist Jewish elites. It not only serves to legitimize the zionist occupation regime in Palestine and its policies, but also to shield from criticism Jewish zionists in positions of power elsewhere. In the west, evocation of these elites or of misdeeds they might have committed will often be unjustly classified as "antisemitism", followed by social exclusion if not legal prosecution. Likewise, ordinary Jewish people are held hostage by these strategies and tend to be forced into this exceptional kind of relationship with nations they live amongst.

When it comes to the contemporary ramifications of the slavery Africans were subjected to, there are two dimensions to it. On the one hand yes, no black person in the US should dwell on this episode as a justification for reducing efforts to improve their social and economic positions. On the other hand though, the precondition for looking beyond crimes and injustice of the past is a reciprocal readiness for a reset of ties. And here, continued discrimination against (certain) minorities - not just when it comes to legal and criminal affairs but also on the job market etc, is a problem in the US. Furthermore, class inequalities are self-reproducing phenomena whose vicious circle is complicated to break.

As for reparations, with that logic Native Americans should get most of the United States back. Or with that logic Iran should sue England, Russia, and US for stealing resources and causing famines and genocide in Iran from 1900-1950 when more than 15M+ million Iranians died from famines and plundering of resources from “allied” invasions of Iran under various pretexts. Let’s not even get into the Iran-Iraq war.

They definitely should. Iran generously forewent reparations for the 1980 Iraqi aggression and subsequent 8 years of war because of its great leniency, and also as a harbinger of a new era of friendly bilateral ties on equal footing. Which is perfectly in order.

However the same cannot be said of Iran's relations with the UK. Not only is 10 million people or half of Iran's population exterminated with no subsequent apology nor reparation hardly a side affair but moreover, the fact that many Iranians are not even properly informed about the event and therefore more susceptible to getting fooled by propaganda which the same British regime is spreading today for hostile purposes, calls for more action by Iranian authorities. Including further insistence on the genocide in school curriculae, the building of memorial sites, monuments and museums, raising the issue at the diplomatic level, a greater number of dedicated films and other cultural productions, increased public discussion etc.

I also believe Native Americans should get most of America back. Sounds improbable? So did, most of the time, the notion that zionists would settle in Palestine.

Which brings me to the next point: it seems to me that any general objection to reparations ought to be directed first and foremost to the prime contemporary beneficiary of these ie the zionist regime. The regime in Tel Aviv and other zionist institutions continue to receive reparations in various forms some 75 years after WW2, despite the fact that the successor state(s) of perpetrating regimes have done their mea culpa already and have not conducted abuses against Jewish communities since 1945. Compare this to how the WW1 genocide of Iranians has been handled by the UK and how London is still plotting to harm the safety of the Iranian people.
 
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Getting mixed messages out of Panjshir. Taliban are claiming to have captured several areas but are not providing definitive evidence. Panjshir resistance forces are claiming that they blew up the narrow entrance into the valley after the Taliban entered, trapping them inside. Some are claiming that the Taliban were ambushed with mines, ieds and coordinated attacks. Some sources, are claiming that 500+ Taliban have been killed and scores captured. Meanwhile some Taliban sources are claiming to have captured most of the region as well as a large quantity of equipment. Again nothing definitive.



Panjshir fighters questioning and slapping Taliban fighter


Taliban sources meanwhile are claiming to have captured most of the Panjshir valley


Taliban claiming to have captured large quantities of equipment but this was geolocated right outside Panjshir


Two days ago Taliban claimed that a region deeper inside the valley was "on the verge of collapse" Now however they released this picture which was geo-located further outwards.

 
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I can't speak with certainty but from a OSINT report I saw quite a while back, the majority of BM's used against SA, were targeted towards Khamis Mushait on the border with Yemen which would indicate the missiles used would be in the Fateh-110 class, (300km) range and less (150km)(Badr 1-P). Obviously this makes sense considering the less material and financial cost of making these compared to a larger and heavier missile.

PAC-2/3's deployed in the area appear to be performing well against these class of missiles <300km, which may even be considered tactical battlefield artillery rockets because of the short range instead of ballistic missiles. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone considering the slower speeds, no separable RV and very low volume of fire. As one can imagine firing 2 Fateh-110 class missiles in an area with a couple battalions of PAC-2/3's won't do much good.

But when moving onto Qiam-like class missiles (Burkhan-1, Improved Burkhan-2H), it appears they are struggling to intercept these and their are many videos online that show several interceptors need to be fired to intercept one RV, and that is of no guarantee either.

With this in mind, Fateh-313 and Zulfiqar missiles would fare much better and anything beyond that would be even more difficult to handle like the mass produced Qiam. Suffice to say, I am doubtful on the success of this anti-BM system because of it's difficulty in handling anything superior to a Fateh-110. Still, it has protected them well otherwise they'd have been in big trouble in their airbases in Khumis Mushait.

This whole separable re-entry vehicle design is really the main causing major issues for all systems for reasons we all know of already.

Do not confuse multiple interceptors being launched with inaccuracy. Many AD systems fire 2 interceptors (Russian systems are well known for this) to increase probability of kill.

I would also suggest you familiarize yourself with the differences between PAC vs THAAD.

If I may oversimplify successful ABM interception comes down to two things:

1) timely detection and projected trajectory

2) interceptor statistics (Gs pulled, energy expendable, max ceiling)

After that it becomes a statistical game where interceptor attempts to intercept and warhead attempts to evade and it becomes who has more energy to expend in the end.

For example, PAC-3 interceptor cannot intercept Solemani Missile due to avoidance maneuvers and high terminal velocity, hence its left to THAAD. Nothing magical here or inferior about PAC-3, it was built to intercept a specific envelope of missiles. THAAD was built for higher altitude interception and greater G’s pulled to catch up to an evading missile. Though at higher altitudes most missiles don’t begin evasive maneuvering thus its a higher Kill probability.

But again nothing is certain in the battle of THAAD vs Solemani Missile. THAAD can theoretically intercept and Solemani can theoretically evade, in statistics it comes down to enough trials done to reach a confidence interval of >95% which might mean THAAD can intercept Solemani at 60% probability (for example just making up numbers).

Right now in case of Yemen BMs vs PAC-3 the nod goes to PAC-3 given it intercepts missiles at a statistical significance level.
 
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Interestingly though, Jews who were cited before as an example of successful integration in the US have much of their zionist-oriented elites (I'm not talking about Jews in general) rely heavily on the politcal instrumentalization of historic persecutions (particularly of WW2) as a lever of power. In fact, this victimization strategy constitutes one of the major pillars underpinning the power and influence wielded by zionist and/or messianist Jewish elites. It not only serves to legitimize the zionist occupation regime in Palestine and its policies, but also to shield from criticism Jewish zionists in positions of power elsewhere. In the west, evocation of these elites or of misdeeds they might have committed will often be unjustly classified as "antisemitism", followed by social exclusion if not legal prosecution. Likewise, ordinary Jewish people are held hostage by these strategies and tend to be forced into this exceptional kind of relationship with nations they live amongst.

Which brings me to the next point: it seems to me that any general objection to reparations ought to be directed first and foremost to the prime contemporary beneficiary of these ie the zionist regime. The regime in Tel Aviv and other zionist institutions continue to receive reparations in various forms some 75 years after WW2, despite the fact that the successor state(s) of perpetrating regimes have done their mea culpa already and have not conducted abuses against Jewish communities since 1945. Compare this to how the WW1 genocide of Iranians has been handled by the UK and how London is still plotting to harm the safety of the Iranian people.

While we can debate the validity of final solution by Nazi Regime. It was clear that upper Nazi brass (and not just schizophrenic Jewish heritage Hitler) believed that if they won WWII they would lead the new world order (instead of Uncle Sam and dollar/Gold). However, to truly lead they could not have Zionist elements in upper structures of western Society. They foresaw the dangers of a Zionist lead world order. Unfortunately they focused too much on just Jews in general which was in humane and Iran had to step in and get Nuremberg laws modified to exempt Iranian Jews from being massacred.

In regards to your last point Reparations is a joke and firmly against it on every level especially towards AA community. Societies since the dawn of man have been massacred and pillaged by the victor.Reparations are slippery slope towards an apologist defeatist nation. Furthermore, in case of Iran today if it’s people were to receive reparations who today has connections to those massacred over a 100 years ago? You aren’t fixing a wrong you are just throwing money ambiguously and hoping it makes the problem go away.

The reason blacks are having trouble receiving reparations today is because no African nation on the planet is powerful enough to impact the white led Zionist order. It would be a whole different story if the superpower in today’s society was Kenya or Sudan. Rules would be a lot different.

Even China who has immense power on global stage hasn’t collected their dues from Colonialism and Japanese invasions. Tho one could argue serving as the West’s economic production factory is a gift beyond anything reparations could have done for China.

Lastly, the world is dominated by the White man and colonial powers led by Zionist deep states. Thus the court of law where right and wrong are decided in their favor. Iran dominated the world for 2000+ years and had this power, various countries at various times held this power (judge, jury, executioner status).

While today countries have to be more PR image friendly and observe political “norms” that they say should be followed and respected....underneath that fake skin is still the same powers that have blood on their hands of millions of “brown” people and “yellow” people. Push comes to shove and they will do it again if it means defending their way of life.
 
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In regards to your last point Reparations is a joke and firmly against it on every level especially towards AA community. Societies since the dawn of man have been massacred and pillaged by the victor.Reparations are slippery slope towards an apologist defeatist nation. Furthermore, in case of Iran today if it’s people were to receive reparations who today has connections to those massacred over a 100 years ago? You aren’t fixing a wrong you are just throwing money ambiguously and hoping it makes the problem go away.

A Muslim should never embrace social darwinism ie the law of the strongest with blanket acceptance. Nor the moral relativism that comes with it. Monotheism and Islam in general, Shia Islam in particular are all about (social) justice. We should never become fatalist towards the regrettable fact that victors have throughout history committed injustice and oppression. Hence this cannot serve as a justification for anyone's policies.

As for reparations, well, they are in fact a common feature of both civil and international law. I'm not convinced that in and by themselves they will demotivate their recipients. Here the example of the zionists is telling once again. There are not many political entities as combative and domineering as them, yet they also top the list of those requesting and obtaining reparations, don't they?

However when I argued that Iran should ask the UK for reparations, I didn't have in mind the financial gain at all but rather the principle itself. I see it more as a political tool than a concrete objective.

A huge crime was perpetrated against the Iranian nation in modern times - I do think contemporary Iranians can realistically and legitimately feel a relatively close connection to the generation of their grand-parents (grand-grand-parents at most). Justice wasn't served and the regime and oligarchy responsible for this crime is still plotting to cause further harm to the Iranian people. And this actually sets Iranians apart from the zionist regime which continues to receive reparations after 75 years despite the fact that Jewish people are no longer threatened by the countries responsible for the persecutions they suffered during WW2.

Therefore, I believe Iran can't afford to ignore the WW1 genocide and act as if nothing happened. Especially because political passivity on this matter is not without effect on the image of the UK in the minds of contemporary Iranians. Considering the power of the enemy's propaganda apparatus, some segments of the Iranian population have been brainwashed to the point of imagining that their existential foes wish them well - and this in turn is dangerous. A proper memorial policy by the Islamic Republic with regards to the WW1 genocide of Iranians at the hands of the British empire will go a long way countering and neutralizing this propaganda. Here I'm not so much concerned about the past per se but about the present and the future.

Iran will be able to stay indifferent towards financial reparations once the UK regime ditches its deep hostility against the Iranian nation. Until then, this should be used as a diplomatic instrument against London. But in line with what I suggested in my previous comment, much more important than requests for reparations are things such as properly informing the Iranian public about what occurred, building memorials, encouraging research and discussions on the matter and so on. This is not centered on reparations at all.

The reason blacks are having trouble receiving reparations today is because no African nation on the planet is powerful enough to impact the white led Zionist order. It would be a whole different story if the superpower in today’s society was Kenya or Sudan. Rules would be a lot different.

This is true. Power does play a decisive role. But with power should come responsibility and it should never be a final goal onto itself. It should never overshadow moral precepts. If Kenya or Sudan were to be the superpowers of tomorrow, and if they behaved in a similar fashion as current imperial powers, then those at the helm of these states will also have to answer for their actions sooner or later - if not in this world, then in the afterlife.

Even China who has immense power on global stage hasn’t collected their dues from Colonialism and Japanese invasions. Tho one could argue serving as the West’s economic production factory is a gift beyond anything reparations could have done for China.

Look at political discourse in China: repairing the injustice committed by western imperialists during what is known as the century of humiliation is a constant and recurrent theme impacting the minds and driving the actions of Chinese decision makers, at least to some extent.

Even more than western investments which helped kick start China's economic development, surpassing the US in terms of power will be what will make the west and Japan get their dues in the eyes of the Chinese.

Lastly, the world is dominated by the White man and colonial powers led by Zionist deep states. Thus the court of law where right and wrong are decided in their favor. Iran dominated the world for 2000+ years and had this power, various countries at various times held this power (judge, jury, executioner status).

While today countries have to be more PR image friendly and talk in “norms” that should be followed and respected....underneath that fake skin is still the same powers that have blood on their hands of millions of “brown” people and “yellow” people. Push comes to shove and they will do it again if it means defending their way of life.

Yes, however history has not ended. And the first precondition for a change of status quo is realizing how it is not permanent and how it must be challenged for the sake of Haqq, no matter how desperate the odds. I would add that the main issue with this imperial political order is not the racial background of those who control it, but its oppressive and tyrannical nature. We say no to the Ahrimans and Yazids of our time. To this effect, we will fight, fight and never give up.
 
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Iran is currently distributing approx 600,000-850,000 vaccines a day on average and that number is increasing rapidly. 1 month ago that number was at around the 200,000 range. Soon Iran will be up to 1 million doses a day. With large doses being produced domestically and foreign suppliers from various nations, including China, Russia, Germany, finally coming through on their promises simultaneously, supply will not be an issue.

That means that by the of September Iran should be able to distribute 25 million more doses. With 28 million doses already having been given out, that would mean that by the end of September or mid to end of October at the latest, the majority of eligible Iranians should have received at least one dose.

Honestly Iran, a country under the harshest sanctions on earth, has been able to achieve this, largely through the diligent and hard work of dedicated and selfless healthcare professionals. Thank God for them. They truly deserve a round of applause from all Iranians and all humanity since Iranian vaccine will soon be distributed all over the world to people in need.


 
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Iran, a country under the harshest sanctions on earth, has been able to achieve this, largely through the diligent and hard work of dedicated and selfless healthcare professionals. Thank God for them. They truly deserve a round of applause from all Iranians and all humanity since Iranian vaccine will soon be distributed all over the world to people in need.

Are vaccines produced and distributed by health workers? Or is it rather central state planning and execution by Islamic Republican authorities which made this possible? I certainly do not wish to minimize the great accomplishments and efforts of Iran's health workers, who deserve praise indeed, but when it comes to vaccines production and distribution, they aren't directly involved in this particular endeavour, are they? So credit where due, I'd say.
 
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In Iran, both healthcare workers and government officials handling the pandemic deserve credit for being able to pull this off under so much intense pressure and sanctions. However it's not over yet. The hardest work still lies ahead.

As far as this latest wave is concerned, I believe that Iran has gone through the worst of it, past the peak. Hopefully mass vaccinations on a large scale will put a serious dent in the next wave that is sure to arise because of constantly mutating variants all over the world.

Of course vaccinating the majority with 1 dose is not enough but it will help. By the end of the year the majority of Iranians should be fully vaccinated but I'm not sure if they will reach herd immunity even then.

In the west, as far as US / Canada are concerned, they have not reached herd immunity. Vaccine hesitancy is a serious issue. It's strange because in some countries people protest because of lack of vaccines. In North America and Europe people are protesting because of Covid passports.

As far as Iran is concerned, they cannot even begin to think about implementing any kind of vaccine passport until the end of the year, that is assuming that atleast 80-90% do not voluntarily vaccinate.

vac.jpg
vac2.jpg




Are vaccines produced and distributed by health workers? Or is it rather central state planning and execution by Islamic Republican authorities which made this possible? I certainly do not wish to minimize the great accomplishments and efforts of Iran's health workers, who deserve praise indeed, but when it comes to vaccines production and distribution, they aren't directly involved in this particular endeavour, are they? So credit where due, I'd say.
 
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Do not confuse multiple interceptors being launched with inaccuracy. Many AD systems fire 2 interceptors (Russian systems are well known for this) to increase probability of kill.

I would also suggest you familiarize yourself with the differences between PAC vs THAAD.

If I may oversimplify successful ABM interception comes down to two things:

1) timely detection and projected trajectory

2) interceptor statistics (Gs pulled, energy expendable, max ceiling)

After that it becomes a statistical game where interceptor attempts to intercept and warhead attempts to evade and it becomes who has more energy to expend in the end.

For example, PAC-3 interceptor cannot intercept Solemani Missile due to avoidance maneuvers and high terminal velocity, hence its left to THAAD. Nothing magical here or inferior about PAC-3, it was built to intercept a specific envelope of missiles. THAAD was built for higher altitude interception and greater G’s pulled to catch up to an evading missile. Though at higher altitudes most missiles don’t begin evasive maneuvering thus its a higher Kill probability.

But again nothing is certain in the battle of THAAD vs Solemani Missile. THAAD can theoretically intercept and Solemani can theoretically evade, in statistics it comes down to enough trials done to reach a confidence interval of >95% which might mean THAAD can intercept Solemani at 60% probability (for example just making up numbers).

Right now in case of Yemen BMs vs PAC-3 the nod goes to PAC-3 given it intercepts missiles at a statistical significance level.
I know how these systems and procedures work, I've been on the forum long enough to know that :-). I know they fire 2:1. If you remember an older video of the PAC missile malfunctioning, their were nearly 5 interceptors used to attack 1 incoming RV. My point of that post is simply the smaller target and terminal speed increase of a separable RV is pumping this ratio of 2:1 much higher for the reasons you stated above. They are performing well against low range/speed missiles, and as you mentioned basic Scud class missiles.

I am not sure on the flight altitude of Soleimani missile (maybe classified), does it fly high enough for the THAAD to be used? I was guessing that Haj Qasem missile was Iran's answer to the PAC-3 and more importantly, Israeli Arrow-3.
Iran is currently distributing approx 600,000-850,000 vaccines a day on average and that number is increasing rapidly. 1 month ago that number was at around the 200,000 range. Soon Iran will be up to 1 million doses a day. With large doses being produced domestically and foreign suppliers from various nations, including China, Russia, Germany, finally coming through on their promises simultaneously, supply will not be an issue.

That means that by the of September Iran should be able to distribute 25 million more doses. With 28 million doses already having been given out, that would mean that by the end of September or mid to end of October at the latest, the majority of eligible Iranians should have received at least one dose.

Honestly Iran, a country under the harshest sanctions on earth, has been able to achieve this, largely through the diligent and hard work of dedicated and selfless healthcare professionals. Thank God for them. They truly deserve a round of applause from all Iranians and all humanity since Iranian vaccine will soon be distributed all over the world to people in need.


Looking at the graphs you posted as of late, the increase of single vaccinated people has been rising sharply. Good sign, and hopefully will reduce the pressure on the hospitals very soon.
 
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The Taliban are claiming that they have entered the capital of Panjshir, Bazarak. Some are claiming that they have already captured the governors HQ.



The NRF (National Resistance Forces) are denying Taliban claims, stating that fighting is not ending anytime soon. Realistically if Panjshir falls it will be a major blow to any hopes of a long term resistance against the Taliban.

Massoud and Saleh might flee and launch future operations from Tajikistan. Remember there are 5000+ ex Afghan solders who fled into Tajikistan and a large portion of their airforce and pilots also took their helicopters and fighter jets there. Anyways only time will tell.

 
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Intense fighting in Daara, southern Syria between pro-Gov forces and previously reconciled rebels who had promised to put down their arms and return to civilian life under a previous agreement a few years back. However recently tensions finally boiled over and rebels initiated a new uprising. They currently control 3 pockets in the area, each one separated and surrounded by Syrian government forces.

sy.jpg


During the last week, under fresh talks brokered by Russia, dozens of rebels have re-negotiated and have been taken by bus to Idlib. However there are a few holdout rebel groups who are refusing to get on buses or put down their arms. They are currently surrounded and the government is attempting to storm their positions under the cover of artillery, rockets, missiles and more. The Syrian government forces seem to be focusing on the center pocket first and foremost, in order to further isolate the remaining two pockets.

The following video clip is from 15 hours ago. You can see and hear Syrian pro-gov forces launching rockets onto rebel positions, including the infamous "elephant rockets" at the end.

 
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