Iranian Chill Thread

[Aramagedon]

ISIS khorasan

We should send @Falcon29 (hazzy1997) there.

 

[Aramagedon]

 

[Stryker1982]

Realistically the US has just pulled out of Afghanistan and is now contemplating a draw down of forces in Iraq in the near future. Without the US's direct support, I can't see the Israelis trying anything on their own. Iran has potent air defenses and if the Israelis did try anything Iran would strike Israel directly, perhaps targeting their own nuclear facilities or vital ports with dozens of missiles. Not only Iran but any conflict with Iran will most likely draw in Hezbollah and right now tensions are already mounting with Hamas again.

If they realistically want the enrichment to come to an end, their best bet is the nuclear deal. However as long as Iran does not continue to steadily increase enrichment, the Americans and Israelis seem content keeping the sanctions in place. But now Iran's economy is growing regardless and Iran's oil sales have reached pre sanction levels so I don't think they're too happy about that. The issue for them now is that they have no eyes on the ground when it comes to those facilities so at best they have a vague, hazy idea of what Iran is doing or even plans to do.

With sanctions in place, Iran has nothing to lose and should simply continue to increase its nuclear capabilities incrementally, like tightening a bolt slowly but surely. If Iran gets to 70% then 80% or 90% they will start sweating bullets and the US might feel compelled to actually engage Iran seriously. Well either that or it's war, which is not an option for the US after the debacle in Afghanistan, or they can negotiate in good faith, which again with America is still unlikely, even at the best of days, even with their own allies they abandon.

Right now the Americans are worried about China more than anything. Russia is also a threat with Nord Stream 2 but China is their gravest concern. Iran recently made it clear that it will be joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. From 1979 when the Americans called all the shots in Tehran until now, it ahs taken quite a while but Iran is firmly entrenched in the eastern camp now. The Americans have the Saudis who are useless more or less and the Israelis who only want more capital and free weapons from them with every passing day. Now it's gotten to the point where the Americans have created so many adversaries and the issue today is that all those adversaries are working closely together in close coordination. The Americans realize this and are starting to get nervous.

China is seriously looking to surpass the US in the coming decade, becoming the worlds largest economy. Some analysts say that it will happen much sooner than a decade, perhaps even in 6-7 years. China already has more industrial capacity and with the belt and road initiative has now hedged its bets, essentially guaranteeing their access to the outside world even in case of a major conflict. If a war were to erupt, the US would look to block China's access to energy markets with help from a quad alliance including USA, Japan, Australia, India but it could also include Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines and South Korea as well. The belt and road helps to offset that and China is currently building up their own navy with aircraft carriers at a feverish pace. In the next decade their navy in the South China Sea might be able to challenge US naval supremacy.

More importantly though the USD is currently the worlds reserve currency, which gives the US a significant financial advantage if any conflict were to break out. The USA currency reserve status also gives it control over the means to transport funds (Swift). However Russia has already created an alternative to Swift and China currently has the largest reserves of gold and foreign currency reserves on the planet. In terms of currency reserves, believe it or not the USA is at number 19, with Iran being at number 20. The main issue is that right now anytime anyone wants to buy anything from China, they have to pay in USD. There is no other option. You cannot pay in EU, Swiss Frank, Yen or any other currency. China only accepts the USD.

Anyways China is currently the worlds global factory and although manufacturing has been shifting more to South East Asia recently, China still has a firm grip on controlling the supply chain from buyers to sellers and the online platforms used by buyers and sellers. In the coming decade, or perhaps sooner, if the Chinese were to build up enough confidence, then the day they could switch from asking the world for USD and instead demand their own currency, the RMB (Yuan) for purchases, that would be this centuries game changer. if China were to do that with very specific and impeccable timing, let's say right after another recession were to hit the USA, it would essentially turn China's currency into the worlds reserve currency pretty much overnight.

The fact that China has recently encrypted and digitized its currency and has cracked down on and acquired control of Alibaba, which is the worlds most popular platform for import/export, is also tied into all of this. In this context, China's push to digitize its currency makes perfect sense because it would essentially make the switch seamless for all the buyers simultaneously and China wouldn't need to print and distribute all of their bills to the world or even use Swift for that matter. That would honestly be a fatal deathblow to American imperialism and exceptionalism, which has been the goal of the Chinese Communist Party since Mao. It's actually a very bold and brilliant master plan, but only time will tell if the Chinese will actually go through with it.

China, Russia, Iran fight back — announce war games in Persian Gulf

Appreciate the opinion friend.

If they realistically want the enrichment to come to an end, their best bet is the nuclear deal. However as long as Iran does not continue to steadily increase enrichment, the Americans and Israelis seem content keeping the sanctions in place. But now Iran's economy is growing regardless and Iran's oil sales have reached pre sanction levels so I don't think they're too happy about that. The issue for them now is that they have no eyes on the ground when it comes to those facilities so at best they have a vague, hazy idea of what Iran is doing or even plans to do.

Here's the thing friend, this is what I was mostly acclaiming to. If we reject any nuclear deal, we will be stock piling at 60% with two cascades of IR4's and 6s. That's quite heavy in my opinion, they are as we speaking probably trying to figure out how to sabotage this. This stockpiling makes them super anxious and desperate, they cannot even fathom nuclear parity between our countries, they are not mentally prepared to accept this so expect they will try what they can to stop it. So I wonder, with this pressure mounting on them, perhaps they will make a mistake...

With sanctions in place, Iran has nothing to lose and should simply continue to increase its nuclear capabilities incrementally, like tightening a bolt slowly but surely. If Iran gets to 70% then 80% or 90% they will start sweating bullets and the US might feel compelled to actually engage Iran seriously. Well either that or it's war, which is not an option for the US after the debacle in Afghanistan, or they can negotiate in good faith, which again with America is still unlikely, even at the best of days, even with their own allies they abandon.

100% agree, we need to turn the screws on them gradually (appears to be the case), these sanctions are unacceptable and if they wish to play hard then they can start sweating bullets with 90%. I just wonder if the current leadership in Iran is confident they can defend themselves well and respond reciprocally with a similar attack in case of a desperate attack by Israel if they choose to go 90%. Khamenei himself had said we would go to 90% if we need too.
If they were to attempt on Natanz, they know they would have to go after missiles sites as well (at least the launch entrances) otherwise they will be in big trouble.

The rest of your comment relates heavy on China which is nice to take in when looking at it globally but in these Biden years I do not expect an attack by the USA, as you stated they are focused elsewhere now (perfect distraction), but I do expect an attempt by Israel out of desperation.

 

[Beny Karachun]

I just wonder if the current leadership in Iran is confident they can defend themselves well and respond reciprocally with a similar attack in case of a desperate attack by Israel if they choose to go 90%.

Israel will never let Iran get nukes, even if it means nuking Iran in order to prevent that. I assure you that.

 

[aryobarzan]

Israel will never let Iran get nukes, even if it means nuking Iran in order to prevent that. I assure you that.

Big words from small people!

 

[TheImmortal]

Israel will never let Iran get nukes, even if it means nuking Iran in order to prevent that. I assure you that.

Nuking iran would only give Iran blanket justification to get nukes. Doesn’t make sense. And most of Israeli leadership has privately switched to a increase in nuclear arsenal to counter Iran’s eventual arsenal.

The goal right now is to delay the bomb as long as possible and hope Iran somehow magically collapses. But it’s largely accepted within next 25 years Iran will become a nuclear weapons power.

 

[PeeD]

Israel will never let Iran get nukes, even if it means nuking Iran in order to prevent that. I assure you that.

Well possible. But Iran has already reached a state where even if nuked it will be able to build several nukes and launch them.

Israels problem is that 4-5 nukes are sufficient to effectively lead it to collapse.

Thats the problem of such a small country

Iran can receive several hundred nukes and still manage that nuclear counter strike.

Latent MAD

 

[Beny Karachun]

Nuking iran would only give Iran blanket justification to get nukes. Doesn’t make sense. And most of Israeli leadership has privately switched to a increase in arsenal to counter Iran’s eventual arsenal.

Nuking Iran would cease Iran from existing, it won't be able to create any nukes.
Hell, even a "small" explosion (relative to a nuke) in Beirut sent the whole country into chaos and just wrecked the economy and overwhelmed the hospitals of Lebanon.

Big words from small people!

Your country is a poor place for poor unfortunate people, a lot of which hate the government to death.

Funny thing is you support your native country of Iran, from a place like Canada which is opposite to Iran in nature and ideology.

 

[Shawnee]

دوستان این دلقک رو ول کنین
ممکنه همون فالکون باشه
ِِِ.......
مهم مرز باریکه شمالی بود که متاسفانه باید بگم کلا ریدند
از مشغولیت بایدن استفاده کردند
البته میشه هنوز درستش کرد

 

[Beny Karachun]

Well possible. But Iran has already reached a state where even if nuked it will be able to build several nukes and launch them.

Israels problem is that 4-5 nukes are sufficient to effectively lead it to collapse.

Thats the problem of such a small country

Iran can receive several hundred nukes and still manage that nuclear counter strike.

Latent MAD

You're very wrong. Iran is definitely not in a state it could build a nuke if it wants to. It'll never reach that stage.

Iran cannot receive hundreds of nukes, it only took two to bring down Japan which was a military and an economical powerhouse. A nuclear strike would destroy all of Iran's government, commanders, pretty much all of its logistical capabilities, the whole electric grid. The whole country would be in chaos.

Besides, you think Iranian nuclear sites won't be the main target of a nuclear strike? That's the first thing that Israel wants to prevent.

 

[aryobarzan]

Nuking Iran would cease Iran from existing, it won't be able to create any nukes.
Hell, even a "small" explosion (relative to a nuke) in Beirut sent the whole country into chaos and just wrecked the economy and overwhelmed the hospitals of Lebanon.


Your country is a poor place for poor unfortunate people, a lot of which hate the government to death.

Funny thing is you support your native country of Iran, from a place like Canada which is opposite to Iran in nature and ideology.

I support my native country even if I live on the moon ..What is surprising is that a member of a small puny colony living on a stolen land feels embolden enough to utter nuclear threats against a vast and capable country such as Iran..What do they feed you guys in your colony to think like that...

 

[Shawnee]

You're very wrong. Iran is definitely not in a state it could build a nuke if it wants to. It'll never reach that stage.

Iran cannot receive hundreds of nukes, it only took two to bring down Japan which was a military and an economical powerhouse. A nuclear strike would destroy all of Iran's government, commanders, pretty much all of its logistical capabilities, the whole electric grid. The whole country would be in chaos.

Besides, you think Iranian nuclear sites won't be the main target of a nuclear strike? That's the first thing that Israel wants to prevent.

I will not waste time on you because I am not even sure that you are Israeli.

Just remember small states disappear with even Sarin, VX and even chlorine.

You may not know but VX is worse than nuke. I don’t have time to educate you why.

We assess…Iran probably already has nuclear weapons

mackenzieinstitute.com

 

[Beny Karachun]

I support my native country even if I live on the moon ..What is surprising is that a member of a small puny colony living on a stolen land feels embolden enough to utter nuclear threats against a vast and capable country such as Iran..What do they feed you guys in your colony to think like that...

You would be a hypocrite. Escaping Iran's failure into a way more successful country with an opposite ideology just to say how great Iran is in internet forums. That's the definition of hypocrism.

Right, vast and capable. Massive inflation, declining GDP, riots, getting their top generals killed by enemy spy agencies literally in the heart of their capital, having their nuclear facilities blown up. Wonder who did those things. Maybe it's the little country with little people as you've claimed?

 

[PeeD]

You're very wrong. Iran is definitely not in a state it could build a nuke if it wants to. It'll never reach that stage.

Iran cannot receive hundreds of nukes, it only took two to bring down Japan which was a military and an economical powerhouse. A nuclear strike would destroy all of Iran's government, commanders, pretty much all of its logistical capabilities, the whole electric grid. The whole country would be in chaos.

Besides, you think Iranian nuclear sites won't be the main target of a nuclear strike? That's the first thing that Israel wants to prevent.

Because Iran just need 4-5 nukes for Israel, its likely already there today.

Fordow site is nuclear strike proof. Iran will just need a week or so to revenge an Israeli all-out strike.

Even if not today, it will have enough advanced centrifuges and material to reach that level very soon.

Don't overestimate nukes vs. wood houses and nukes vs. deep underground targets.

As said: Israel could launch 300 nukes against Iran and it would survive.
Iran just needs 4-5 to revenge such a strike and let Israel collapse.

Again: Latent MAD

 

[Shawnee]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431236133061595138