Realistically the US has just pulled out of Afghanistan and is now contemplating a draw down of forces in Iraq in the near future. Without the US's direct support, I can't see the Israelis trying anything on their own. Iran has potent air defenses and if the Israelis did try anything Iran would strike Israel directly, perhaps targeting their own nuclear facilities or vital ports with dozens of missiles. Not only Iran but any conflict with Iran will most likely draw in Hezbollah and right now tensions are already mounting with Hamas again.
If they realistically want the enrichment to come to an end, their best bet is the nuclear deal. However as long as Iran does not continue to steadily increase enrichment, the Americans and Israelis seem content keeping the sanctions in place. But now Iran's economy is growing regardless and Iran's oil sales have reached pre sanction levels so I don't think they're too happy about that. The issue for them now is that they have no eyes on the ground when it comes to those facilities so at best they have a vague, hazy idea of what Iran is doing or even plans to do.
With sanctions in place, Iran has nothing to lose and should simply continue to increase its nuclear capabilities incrementally, like tightening a bolt slowly but surely. If Iran gets to 70% then 80% or 90% they will start sweating bullets and the US might feel compelled to actually engage Iran seriously. Well either that or it's war, which is not an option for the US after the debacle in Afghanistan, or they can negotiate in good faith, which again with America is still unlikely, even at the best of days, even with their own allies they abandon.
Right now the Americans are worried about China more than anything. Russia is also a threat with Nord Stream 2 but China is their gravest concern. Iran recently made it clear that it will be joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. From 1979 when the Americans called all the shots in Tehran until now, it ahs taken quite a while but Iran is firmly entrenched in the eastern camp now. The Americans have the Saudis who are useless more or less and the Israelis who only want more capital and free weapons from them with every passing day. Now it's gotten to the point where the Americans have created so many adversaries and the issue today is that all those adversaries are working closely together in close coordination. The Americans realize this and are starting to get nervous.
China is seriously looking to surpass the US in the coming decade, becoming the worlds largest economy. Some analysts say that it will happen much sooner than a decade, perhaps even in 6-7 years. China already has more industrial capacity and with the belt and road initiative has now hedged its bets, essentially guaranteeing their access to the outside world even in case of a major conflict. If a war were to erupt, the US would look to block China's access to energy markets with help from a quad alliance including USA, Japan, Australia, India but it could also include Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines and South Korea as well. The belt and road helps to offset that and China is currently building up their own navy with aircraft carriers at a feverish pace. In the next decade their navy in the South China Sea might be able to challenge US naval supremacy.
More importantly though the USD is currently the worlds reserve currency, which gives the US a significant financial advantage if any conflict were to break out. The USA currency reserve status also gives it control over the means to transport funds (Swift). However Russia has already created an alternative to Swift and China currently has the largest reserves of gold and foreign currency reserves on the planet. In terms of currency reserves, believe it or not the USA is at number 19, with Iran being at number 20. The main issue is that right now anytime anyone wants to buy anything from China, they have to pay in USD. There is no other option. You cannot pay in EU, Swiss Frank, Yen or any other currency. China only accepts the USD.
Anyways China is currently the worlds global factory and although manufacturing has been shifting more to South East Asia recently, China still has a firm grip on controlling the supply chain from buyers to sellers and the online platforms used by buyers and sellers. In the coming decade, or perhaps sooner, if the Chinese were to build up enough confidence, then the day they could switch from asking the world for USD and instead demand their own currency, the RMB (Yuan) for purchases, that would be this centuries game changer. if China were to do that with very specific and impeccable timing, let's say right after another recession were to hit the USA, it would essentially turn China's currency into the worlds reserve currency pretty much overnight.
The fact that China has recently encrypted and digitized its currency and has cracked down on and acquired control of Alibaba, which is the worlds most popular platform for import/export, is also tied into all of this. In this context, China's push to digitize its currency makes perfect sense because it would essentially make the switch seamless for all the buyers simultaneously and China wouldn't need to print and distribute all of their bills to the world or even use Swift for that matter. That would honestly be a fatal deathblow to American imperialism and exceptionalism, which has been the goal of the Chinese Communist Party since Mao. It's actually a very bold and brilliant master plan, but only time will tell if the Chinese will actually go through with it.
China, Russia, Iran fight back — announce war games in Persian Gulf
Every day we get closer and closer to conflict with Israel. They have great anxiety about these 2 cascades with 60% enrichment.
Do you feel it?