The Turks can't build a land bridge to Azerbaijan. Putin and the Russians are a few steps ahead of the game and won't allow it. Russia has stated that they will not tolerate any direct attack on Armenia proper.
Turkey stands no chance against Russia from a military standpoint. Turkey is giving Russia billions of dollars to purchase more S-400 batteries and to build nuclear power plants, not to mention the pipelines that go through Turkish territory.
Putin has Erdogan on a leach. As soon as Erdogan tries over extending his hand, Putin will firmly pull on the leach, that's all.
Turkey under Erdogan is collapsing economically and now desperately looking for a way out and looking to distract general attention towards various conflicts. However Erdogan doesn't have too many options left.
Erdogan wants to steal southern Cyrprus's natural gas concessions but the threat of EU sanctions has forced Turkey to take a step back. On the other hand, the various conflicts abroad have more or less reached various stalemates.
In Syria, Turkey spent billions and all they have to show for it is a few unstable agricultural, rural areas with no natural resources. Making further inroads will be costly and difficult and in the new year the SAA will launch a new offensive in Idlib.
In Libya, Turkey has managed to consolidate GNA control over Tripoli. However the people of Libya are restless and constantly protesting. Haftar and the LNA control most of the oil resources. The GNA can barely pay their own bills. Turkey lost 20+ UAV's ($5 million a piece) and spent billions in Libya.
They had their eyes on the city of Sirte however Egypt has warned that they will intervene if the city is attacked. A few months ago, Egyptian / UAE Rafale jets destroyed 3 Turkish air defenses in Watiya airbase. The Turks didn't even know what hit them. That event quickly dashed their hopes of further adventures in Libya.
In Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) we saw what happened. 5000+ Azerbaijani soldiers / Turkish mercenaries have died so far. With the entire Azeri army numbering 50,000, it's obvious why the Azerbaijani's were forced to sign a ceasefire. Their initial goal was to liberate the entire enclave, however despite all their efforts, they have barely "liberated" 5% of the territory. Their territorial gains are minor and indecisive. All of their gains could easily be reversed at any time since their forces are surrounded by enemy units in a mountainous terrain without constant air support.
In the long run, Erdogan has a faltering economy that is worsening by the day and thousands of restless, radical militants that are restless and just as much of a threat to Turkey as they are to its enemies. Billions have been spent with minor, inconsequential gains all across the board. Turkey is actually in a very precarious situation right now.
Erdogan is currently embroiled in 3 warzones stretching from the Caucasus to north Africa. If the SAA, Armenians, LNA/Egyptians were to act in unison and launch major counter attacks all at once, Turkey's resources would be strained and they could easily lose all of their gains.
So far the SAA are planning a major offensive in Idlib in the new year. The Armenians are determined and are constantly being resupplied with weapons. In my opinion, if Egypt and the LNA were to launch a major offensive tomorrow, they would inevitably be victorious.
Egypt by itself has a formidable airforce, air defenses, missiles and a few thousand Abram tanks. Add to that the LNA and I don't see Turkey or the LNA being able to win. The only thing separating Egypt from Libya is a line in the sand that doesn't really exist. Turkey meanwhile has to send forces and supplies across the Mediterranean.
Erdogan is playing a truly dangerous juggling game. He's playing with fire. One wrong move could leap to ruin and calamity. Unlike Iran, Turkey doesn't have massive natural resources to fall back on. Their economic situation is worsening and there really isn't any way out for them. Iran is planning to reform their currency soon but Turkey, they've already slashed 6 zeros from the Lira in 2005. Erdogan has truly dug himself into a hole with no way out. Only time will tell what the future holds but I don't see a bright future for Turkey or Erdogan anytime soon.
Turkish export is 170bln$ and import is 210bln$----a trade deficit of -40bln$ which must be financed by dollars coming into Turkey from Foreign Direct investments and foreign loans.
Now, this trade deficit situation can't last forever especially since foreign debt is already huge and FDI dries up---devaluation of lira is inevitable due to balance of payment problems
Currently, Turkey protects the value of lira by exhausting Central bank's forex reserves---they exhausted 65bln$ of their forex reserves to protect lira and their forex reserves stand today at only 41bln$ (compared to 107bln$ in 2017)
Now, as forex reserves are exhausted Turkey will have no other choice but to devalue lira even further.
Devaluation of lira will result in rise of inflation (as import becomes more expensive).
Rise in inflation will force Central bank of Turkey to increase interest rate in order to fight inflation.
Increase of interest rate will make credit more expensive and will result in recession.
Foreign investors will withdraw their money from Turkey due to worsening economic conditions and this capital outflow will devalue Turkish currency even further.
Because many companies and households in Turkey have big debts in dollars while income in lira---devaluation of currency will result in inability of households and companies to service their dollar debts----so defaults and bank failures in few years are to be expected
So, probably, Turkey will experience economic crises and recession in few years...
Now, economic crises will raise questions about political future of Erdogan.
Economic crises might force Erdogan to start a neo-Ottoman war in the Middle East, Caucasus or Eastern Mediterranean in order to distract his people's attention from domestic problems------so expect Turkey becoming more aggressive in the next few years
(also note that Putin started a war in Syria after devaluation of Russian ruble and recession in 2014 --and after this his approval rating increased dramatically )
Of course the odds of this happening are extremely low, but imagine Turkey reducing her ties with the US and Tel Aviv, operating further rapprochment with Moscow and daring to do the same with the Iran-led Axis of Resistance, as timidly commenced during the initial phase of Erdogan-Davutoglu's foreign policy conducted under the slogan "zero problems with neighbours", when the Shamgen trade and visa-free travel zone was envisaged, and when Turkey along with Brasil (under president Lula) mediated on Iran's nuclear dossier. For this to happen, Erdogan would need to shelve much of his neo-Ottoman dreams.
Retrospectively, it's unfortunate that during the so-called "Arab Spring", the Erdogan administration let Turkey be goaded into the fallacious prospect of being allowed to implement a subordinate zone of influence in the Middle East by means of associating herself with the American and Isra"el"i regime change plan for Syria. The main result of this policy shift, from the perspective of Ankara's geopolitical situation, was that a US-protected PKK-affiliate now controls much of the Syrian border with Turkey. Erdogan has revealed himself as a way too opportunistic, unstable and unprincipled leader.
I have a feeling that if the late Necmettin Erbakan had been given the chance to carry out the "Islamic experience" in Turkey instead of Erdogan, maybe then Ankara wouldn't have taken such an erratic path. In effect there's footage of Erbakan were he apparently warns of Erdogan as an untrustworthy if not traitorous element within the AKP; about a decade ago he also labelled Erdogan an "unconscious helper of the Western, Zionist world order" due to the latter's continued attempts to integrate the EU.
If the zio-Americans are hell bent on trying everything in their power to subvert ties between Iran and her allies, it's not out of a desire to help Iran spend more money at home: it's because they want to undermine Iran's strategic depth and deterrence, a crucial first step prior to bringing the war onto Iranian soil. The network of regional allies is one of Iran's most solid security guarantees, something Saddam lacked and we saw how it ended for Iraq.
Iran hasn't spent that much money on these countries anyway, zionist propaganda is intentionally making exaggerated claims in this regard, in order to turn public opinion in Iran against the Islamic Republic's foreign policy. And as said, this was money well spent because it served urgent national security imperatives, namely repelling a concerted aggression on Iran's allies whose ultimate target had always been Iran herself. So this spending by Iran was every bit as necessary as the money spent on defending the nation during the 8-year war imposed by Saddam's Iraq.
That said, Iran is increasingly turning relations to her allies into economically profitable ones, as seen with the procurement of gold from Venezuela (obtained in exchange for cheaply produced gasoline), the export of electricity to Iraq, or the lucrative (at least in the long term) reconstruction contracts signed with Syria.
I forgot to add: Iran's regional network of allies is also critical in helping Iran circumvent the severe US-imposed sanctions regime. Can you imagine how much more bite the sanctions would have if Iran could no longer count on her allies within the Iraqi, Afghan etc state administrations? Once again, Iraq under Saddam did not enjoy this sort of an advantage and it cost her dearly. Hence why Iran must stand firmly against zio-American attempts to jeopardize her regional alliances.
Of course another factor benefitting Iran, which Iraq did not enjoy and which is unlikely to ever go away is Iran's sheer size in terms of population and therefore economic market. Thanks to this, a minimum amount of black market or official trade with countries such as the UAE, Qatar and Turkey is almost guaranteed to continue no matter how severe the US sanctions.
Third factor: between 2.5 and 3 million Iranians (and naturalized ex-Iranians) living abroad, particularly in north America (1 to 1.4 million, of which 220.000 in Canada according to official statistics from the regime in Ottawa), western Europe (an estimated maximum of 650.000, including 145.000 in Germany, about 100.000-120.000 in Scandinavia of which around 70.000 in Sweden, some 120.000 to 150.000 in the UK and France combined (significantly more so in the UK), about 80.000 in the Benelux countries of which 65.000 in the Netherlands, approximately 30.000 in Austria and Switzerland (20.000 in Austria alone)), the Persian Gulf (official UAE statistics claiming 500.000, probably closer to 350.000 or 400.000 since many residence-permit holders do not actually live there, with another 80.000 or so spread between Kuwait (45.000 according to 2012 census), Oman and Qatar, not so many in Saudi Arabia), parts of south Asia (maybe 45.000 or 50.000, essentially Iranian students temporarily staying in India and 14.000 mostly Baluch Iranians living in Pakistan), southeast Asia (approximately 75.000, most of them in Malaysia (some 60.000, with a relatively high proportion of students), the rest living mainly in Thailand, oddly including a few criminal smuggler gangs), Australia and New Zealand (perhaps 30.000 or 40.000, in the official 2004 census by Australia about 18.000 people claimed Iranian ancestry), and northeast Asia (less than 25.000 I would guess, most of them in Japan (probably fewer than in the 1990's, when for Japanese immigration standards, the number of Iranians living essentially in Tokyo and Kyoto was not negligible), a couple thousand in south Korea and a few less in China, essentially business people and students). This too helps Iran fight the sanctions. Iraq nowadays has almost as many of her people living abroad, but they mostly emigrated after and due to the US occupation and subsequent destruction of their country, so during the 1990's sanctions period Baghdad could not benefit quite as much from this.
21stcenturywire.com
