Iranian Chill Thread

[Shawnee]

اگه ده میلیارد دلار نقد هم از عراق وارد کنند اخرش با ذلت و حقارت پول گرفتند

اگه کالاهای مجاز دارویی و غذایی وارد کنند میشه اوج ذلیل بودن
دیگه خودشون هم میگن کالاهای مجاز
تمکین در برابر ترامپ تا این حد
خاککککک

حالا دلمون به موشکهایی خوش باشه که خاک میخورند و نتونستن ایران رو در برابر تحریم و تهدید محافظت کنن
موشکهایی که چنان دقیقند که خون از بینی کسی نیاد
یه بار هنر کردند معاون سابقی رو در عراق کشتند و گردن هم نگرفتند مبادا زشت بشه‌
وگرنه حتی یک عراقی رو هم تنبیه نکردند
از کی تا حالا اینقدر دموکرات منش و باکلاس و جنتلمن شدند

الان پیرمرد پیش خودش حساب کرده هرچی موشکی و هسته ای بی سر و صدا جلو بره بهتره

حواسش نیست ملت ذلتشو میبینن و خاموشی و بی عملیشو
ضعفشو میبینن که قدرتی نشون نده

نمیدونن زیرزیری چقدر کار انجام داده
یا حالا نداده

روزی که ملت خسته بشن و تظاهرات کنن و هواداراش کمتر بشن حسابگری هاش از دماغش در میاد
موشکها اونجا دیگه به کار نمیان
سردارشو زدن اومد خطبه بخوند. همه گفتن چی میخواد بگه اینبار

گفت باید قویتر شویم
تکبیر

اینو باید چهل سال پیش به امامش میگفت که زیادتر از حدش حرف نزنه

ترامپ اگه ببره که چهار سال وقت داره
اگر ببازه باز چند ماه وقت داره تا دم ترسو ها بگیره
و بدونه هر کاری بکنه اقایون صبر میکنن تا جو بیاد​

 

[Shawnee]

علت تمام ذلتشون دوست داشتن توله هاشونه
که اقازاده شدند
و اهل رفاهند و راحتی

توله کدوم اینها سر مرز نگهبانی رفته
اصلا سربازی رفته
جون مرزبان بی ارزشه چون توله هاشون نمیرن
بساز بفروشی میکنن

پارتی پیدا کردن برای سربازی عادی شده
مرزبانی مال فقراست این روزا
توله های اینها تهران میمونند
ارزو به دلم موند یه بار پسرهای اینها لب مرز یا توی سوریه شهید بشن‌
اما تهران میمونند یا خارج نشینن

این که دیگه تقصیر روحانی نیس‌
منتصبین خودشند

نوه های این جنتی و یزدی تا اون سر محمد خاتمی کدوم قبرستون سربازی رفتن
​

 

[Shawnee]

ساده زیستی شده نمایش های تکراری

مجتبی رو با پراید نمایش بده
یا کفش و کلاه کنه بره کوه

اگر توله های امام جمعه هاش لب مرز شهید بشن اون ساده زیستی مسوولینه
منصوبانش در امور مذهبی جزو بدترینها در بی عار بودن و بی خاصیتی و توله پروری

اسم توله پروری و اقازادگی شده خونواده دار بودن
بقیه مردم خونواده ندارن

حکومت علی برقرار کرد برای ما
​

 

[SalarHaqq]

Also Turkey is a very rational actor, regardless of Iranian inability to understand it.

I don't believe Iranian policy makers are unable to properly assess Turkey's actions. As for Iranian users on this thread, I don't recall them qualfying these actions as irrational (whether or not they represent a challenge in terms of national security to Iran and the question of rationality are separate discussions).

It was not acceptable for Assad to slaughter the Sunni majority of Syria. He went way overboard.

The Syrian army didn't target anyone based on confessional affiliations. Had he had an agenda of suppressing Sunni Muslims, president Assad would have started with his own wife, with the Syrian cabinet, the country's civil service, a considerable percentage of his own troops and even much of the general staff of the Syrian armed forces (including a host of generals), all of which happen to be of Sunni Muslim confession.

He chased out a significant percentage of the Syrian people, who became refugees and had to flee.

People fled war, they weren't intentionally displaced by the government. Given that a number of large, well equipped refugee camps had been established in neighboring countries (especially Turkey) right on the borders with Syria, and that the prospect of a purportedly peaceful, hassle-free life in the "paradisiacal" west was dangled in front of Syrians, with the assistance of NGO's funded by Soros & co, this greatly contributed to encouraging many to abandon their war-torn country.

By far the most vile entity in Syria is the atheist dictator Assad whom you guys are supporting.

Is there proof that Bashar Al-Assad is atheist? It's a common sight to see him take part in collective prayers. Since we aren't able to read what's in people's minds nor to look into their hearts, and since Assad himself never suggested he is an atheist, don't you think it might be sinful to judge someone's faith in that manner?

The person who kept bombarding the forum with this terminology was zionist user "500", surely hoping to incite readers against president Assad and Iran.

Besides, if a country ruled by an atheist is undeserving of one's support, then shouldn't one by the same logic also express reservations about a certain other country whose government is throwing Muslim clerics in jail, banning hijab at universities, allowing gay parades to be held and whose president lays flowers at the feet of an obelisk?

 

[Pan-Islamic-Pakistan]

I don't believe Iranian policy makers are unable to properly assess Turkey's actions. As for Iranian users on this thread, I don't recall them qualfying these actions as irrational (whether or not they represent a challenge in terms of national security to Iran and the question of rationality are separate discussions).



The Syrian army didn't target anyone based on confessional affiliations. If he had had an agenda of suppressing Sunni Muslims, president Assad would have started with his own wife, with the Syrian cabinet, the country's civil service, a considerable percentage of his own troops and even much of the general staff of the Syrian armed forces (including a host of generals), all of which happen to be of Sunni Muslim confession.



People fled war, they weren't intentionally displaced by the government. Given that well equipped refugee camps had been established in neighboring countries (especially Turkey) right on the borders to Syria, and that the prospect of peaceful, hassle-free life in the so-called "paradise" of the west was dangled in front of Syrians, with the assistance of NGO's financed by Soros & co, this greatly contributed to encouraging many to abandon their war-torn country.



Is there proof that Bashar Al-Assad is atheist? It's a common sight to see him take part in collective prayers. Since we aren't able to read what's in people's minds nor to look into their hearts, don't you think it might be sinful to judge someone's faith in that manner?

The person who kept bombarding the forum with this terminology was zionist user "500", surely hoping to incite readers against president Assad and Iran.

Besides, if a country ruled by an atheist is undeserving of one's support, then why should one not also express reservations about a certain other country whose government is throwing Muslim clerics in jail, banning hijab at universities, allowing gay parades to be held and whose president lays flowers at the feet of an obelisk?

Ofcourse you think this way, that is why you stay in the Iranian Defence Forum and hardly venture out, despite being Pakistani.

The coming years are going to put you into a very difficult choice to choose between your country or an increasingly hostile neighbor.

I can only imagine the Iranian rage when Afghanistan, Azerbaycan, Syria, and Iraq fall out of Iranian influence.

Already you can feel the uncertainty in this thread.

Let's wait and see how it will play out.

 

[Hack-Hook]

Ofcourse you think this way, that is why you stay in the Iranian Defence Forum and hardly venture out, despite being Pakistani.

The coming years are going to put you into a very difficult choice to choose between your country or an increasingly hostile neighbor.

I can only imagine the Iranian rage when Afghanistan, Azerbaycan, Syria, and Iraq fall out of Iranian influence.

Already you can feel the uncertainty in this thread.

Let's wait and see how it will play out.

It won't be a rage it will be a feast as the money we gave them so they can uphold a resemblance of functional country will be spent here .
Then we will see whose rage it be us or the one whom no longer recieve our free aids.

 

[SalarHaqq]

Ofcourse you think this way, that is why you stay in the Iranian Defence Forum and hardly venture out, despite being Pakistani.

The coming years are going to put you into a very difficult choice to choose between your country or an increasingly hostile neighbor.

I can only imagine the Iranian rage when Afghanistan, Azerbaycan, Syria, and Iraq fall out of Iranian influence.

Already you can feel the uncertainty in this thread.

Let's wait and see how it will play out.

As said before, I do not believe Pakistan-Iran relations are headed towards a crisis.

Azarbaijan has not been under Iranian influence to fall out of it now. Regarding Iraq and Syria, I very much doubt they will distance themselves from Iran. Your forecast (or is it the expression of a personal wish?) pretty much echoes the US-Isra"el"i-controlled mainstream media narrative (and agenda).

For the past 8 years or so, the idea that Iran is about to being "driven out" of Iraq and Syria has been repeated non-stop by zionists and their lackeys, only to be invalidated by the actual events.

In general, the business of impatiently longing for Iran's downfall is hardly a rewarding one. You seem to be somewhat new to it, so perhaps might you want to take a brief look at the cohort of exiled Iranian oppositionists, who for 40+ years have been singing in vain this tune of an imminent collapse of the Islamic Republic.

By they grace of God the enemy shall keep failing just as it has failed so far, so that we won't have to witness the day when it turns its guns on Pakistan after being done with Iran.

Iran is everyone's bullwark against this (infamous Ralph Peters map reflecting actual zio-American strategy in Western Asia, kickstarted after the probable false-flag attacks of 9-11), so Iran and her Axis of Resistance deserve to be backed by everyone:

Not sure what uncertainty in this thread you're referring to, but if you're basing your appraisal of geopolitical developments on the impression gained from reading the present thread (or on what Iranians or Iranian-looking/-sounding ID's in general say on the internet), I'd humbly suggest to rethink this method.

It won't be a rage it will be a feast as the money we gave them so they can uphold a resemblance of functional country will be spent here .
Then we will see whose rage it be us or the one whom no longer recieve our free aids.

If the zio-Americans are hell bent on trying everything in their power to subvert ties between Iran and her allies, it's not out of a desire to help Iran spend more money at home: it's because they want to undermine Iran's strategic depth and deterrence, a crucial first step prior to bringing the war onto Iranian soil. The network of regional allies is one of Iran's most solid security guarantees, something Saddam lacked and we saw how it ended for Iraq.

Iran hasn't spent that much money on these countries anyway, zionist propaganda is intentionally making exaggerated claims in this regard, in order to turn public opinion in Iran against the Islamic Republic's foreign policy. And as said, this was money well spent because it served urgent national security imperatives, namely repelling a concerted aggression on Iran's allies whose ultimate target had always been Iran herself. So this spending by Iran was every bit as necessary as the money spent on defending the nation during the 8-year war imposed by Saddam's Iraq.

That said, Iran is increasingly turning relations to her allies into economically profitable ones, as seen with the procurement of gold from Venezuela (obtained in exchange for cheaply produced gasoline), the export of electricity to Iraq, or the lucrative (at least in the long term) reconstruction contracts signed with Syria.

 

[OldTwilight]

Summary : Thanks to I.R corruption , we are fucked.
even in Qajar era there were strong and wise men and people had hope for better era.

 

[sha ah]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1315893830105866241

 

[SalarHaqq]

Summary : Thanks to I.R corruption , we are fucked.
even in Qajar era there were strong and wise men and people has hope for better era.

Summary: much like exiled oppositionists, you've been repeating the same mantra for a decade or so online, yet there's nothing much the enemy has been able to do against Islamic Iran, despite resorting to a fully fledged "maximum pressure" campaign (i. e. to every possible hostile measure short of actual war).

No major change to Iran's position in the region (except that Yemen has added itself to the Axis of Resistance), steady expansion of Iran's military deterrence capabilies, systematic fizzling out of foreign-backed social unrest inside Iran, miserable failure of terrorist warfare against Iran (lowered frequency of attacks on Iran's borders), no collapse of the Iranian economy (promised day in day out for the past 40 years by oppositionists), no success in reinstating UN sanctions or in winning over major powers like China and Russia, let alone in grabbing territory from Iran as happened under the Qajar dynasty.

Pretending Iran was stronger and more succesful under the Qajars just shows how out of touch the comment I'm responding to really is.

And similar to oppositionists, your forecasts (or are they hopes?) will keep getting proven wrong.

By the way, the man in your profile picture was a protoypical I.R. official.

 

[sha ah]

The Turks can't build a land bridge to Azerbaijan. Putin and the Russians are a few steps ahead of the game and won't allow it. Russia has stated that they will not tolerate any direct attack on Armenia proper.

Turkey stands no chance against Russia from a military standpoint. Turkey is giving Russia billions of dollars to purchase more S-400 batteries and to build nuclear power plants, not to mention the pipelines that go through Turkish territory.

Putin has Erdogan on a leach. As soon as Erdogan tries over extending his hand, Putin will firmly pull on the leach, that's all.

Turkey under Erdogan is collapsing economically and now desperately looking for a way out and looking to distract general attention towards various conflicts. However Erdogan doesn't have too many options left.

Erdogan wants to steal southern Cyrprus's natural gas concessions but the threat of EU sanctions has forced Turkey to take a step back. On the other hand, the various conflicts abroad have more or less reached various stalemates.

In Syria, Turkey spent billions and all they have to show for it is a few unstable agricultural, rural areas with no natural resources. Making further inroads will be costly and difficult and in the new year the SAA will launch a new offensive in Idlib.

In Libya, Turkey has managed to consolidate GNA control over Tripoli. However the people of Libya are restless and constantly protesting. Haftar and the LNA control most of the oil resources. The GNA can barely pay their own bills. Turkey lost 20+ UAV's ($5 million a piece) and spent billions in Libya.

They had their eyes on the city of Sirte however Egypt has warned that they will intervene if the city is attacked. A few months ago, Egyptian / UAE Rafale jets destroyed 3 Turkish air defenses in Watiya airbase. The Turks didn't even know what hit them. That event quickly dashed their hopes of further adventures in Libya.

In Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) we saw what happened. 5000+ Azerbaijani soldiers / Turkish mercenaries have died so far. With the entire Azeri army numbering 50,000, it's obvious why the Azerbaijani's were forced to sign a ceasefire. Their initial goal was to liberate the entire enclave, however despite all their efforts, they have barely "liberated" 5% of the territory. Their territorial gains are minor and indecisive. All of their gains could easily be reversed at any time since their forces are surrounded by enemy units in a mountainous terrain without constant air support.

In the long run, Erdogan has a faltering economy that is worsening by the day and thousands of restless, radical militants that are restless and just as much of a threat to Turkey as they are to its enemies. Billions have been spent with minor, inconsequential gains all across the board. Turkey is actually in a very precarious situation right now.

Erdogan is currently embroiled in 3 warzones stretching from the Caucasus to north Africa. If the SAA, Armenians, LNA/Egyptians were to act in unison and launch major counter attacks all at once, Turkey's resources would be strained and they could easily lose all of their gains.

So far the SAA are planning a major offensive in Idlib in the new year. The Armenians are determined and are constantly being resupplied with weapons. In my opinion, if Egypt and the LNA were to launch a major offensive tomorrow, they would inevitably be victorious.

Egypt by itself has a formidable airforce, air defenses, missiles and a few thousand Abram tanks. Add to that the LNA and I don't see Turkey or the LNA being able to win. The only thing separating Egypt from Libya is a line in the sand that doesn't really exist. Turkey meanwhile has to send forces and supplies across the Mediterranean.

Erdogan is playing a truly dangerous juggling game. He's playing with fire. One wrong move could leap to ruin and calamity. Unlike Iran, Turkey doesn't have massive natural resources to fall back on. Their economic situation is worsening and there really isn't any way out for them. Iran is planning to reform their currency soon but Turkey, they've already slashed 6 zeros from the Lira in 2005. Erdogan has truly dug himself into a hole with no way out. Only time will tell what the future holds but I don't see a bright future for Turkey or Erdogan anytime soon.

IMHO turkey is thinking long term...they want a land bridge to Azarbiagan...the transport of Arabs is only the first step to gain leverage on iran .when the time comes to action their land bridge they know iran will oppose that...they will use thses Arabs that by then have trained many Azaris to stop iran from any action...

The game is set ...time for iran to gain extra leverage on turkey...use turkey's natural enemies (there are many) just as they do...iran should think long term and plan accordingly...Sultan of the turks has big plans for this part of the world.

 

[sha ah]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1315881472251834370

https://twitter.com/x/status/1315911816413884417

https://twitter.com/x/status/1315684486949097474

https://twitter.com/x/status/1315401759658049539

https://twitter.com/x/status/1315753125194747905

 

[OldTwilight]

No major change to Iran's position in the region (except that Yemen has added itself to the Axis of Resistance), steady expansion of Iran's military deterrence capabilies, systematic fizzling out of foreign-backed social unrest inside Iran, miserable failure of terrorist warfare against Iran (remarkably low frequency of attacks on Iran's borders, especially in Sistan-Baluchistan), no collapse of the Iranian economy (promised day in day out for the past 40 years by people like of you), no success in reinstating UN sanctions or in winning over major powers like China and Russia, let alone in grabbing territory from Iran as happened under the Qajar dynasty.

Well , Its look like you either don't live in Iran or you not like an average Iranian father who has to pay for living of you his family ...

Are you an Iranian !?

 

[SalarHaqq]

Well , Its look like you either don't live in Iran or you not like an average Iranian father who has to pay for living of you his family ...

Are you an Iranian !?

Everyday in the west, I witness people who sleep in the streets or search inside garbage cans for food. And these countries here aren't sanctioned nor do their governments have any sort of a will to confront the zio-American empire like Iran does. What excuse do they have to let this happen to their people? How morally corrupt must these western regimes be for this to occur? I don't live in Iran, that's true. Nonetheless I believe you would probably also stand to gain in learning how billions struggle to feed themselves and their families all around the world, many of them in the most wealthy countries of all places - it's just that this wealth is distributed in such unequal ways.

I'm not denying existing hardships in Iran, but we have to be fair and balanced when assessing these. You're surely aware that under the Qajars, namely during World War I, some 10 million Iranians (a staggering 50% of the population!) were starved to death by the British regime. So quite frankly, there's no comparison beween the current situation and the Qajar era.

 

[GWXP]

The Turks can't build a land bridge to Azerbaijan. Putin and the Russians are a few steps ahead of the game and won't allow it. Russia has stated that they will not tolerate any direct attack on Armenia proper.

Turkey stands no chance against Russia from a military standpoint. Turkey is giving Russia billions of dollars to purchase more S-400 batteries and to build nuclear power plants, not to mention the pipelines that go through Turkish territory.

Putin has Erdogan on a leach. As soon as Erdogan tries over extending his hand, Putin will firmly pull on the leach, that's all.

Turkey under Erdogan is collapsing economically and now desperately looking for a way out and looking to distract general attention towards various conflicts. However Erdogan doesn't have too many options left.

Erdogan wants to steal southern Cyrprus's natural gas concessions but the threat of EU sanctions has forced Turkey to take a step back. On the other hand, the various conflicts abroad have more or less reached various stalemates.

In Syria, Turkey spent billions and all they have to show for it is a few unstable agricultural, rural areas with no natural resources. Making further inroads will be costly and difficult and in the new year the SAA will launch a new offensive in Idlib.

In Libya, Turkey has managed to consolidate GNA control over Tripoli. However the people of Libya are restless and constantly protesting. Haftar and the LNA control most of the oil resources. The GNA can barely pay their own bills. Turkey lost 20+ UAV's ($5 million a piece) and spent billions in Libya.

They had their eyes on the city of Sirte however Egypt has warned that they will intervene if the city is attacked. A few months ago, Egyptian / UAE Rafale jets destroyed 3 Turkish air defenses in Watiya airbase. The Turks didn't even know what hit them. That event quickly dashed their hopes of further adventures in Libya.

In Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) we saw what happened. 5000+ Azerbaijani soldiers / Turkish mercenaries have died so far. With the entire Azeri army numbering 50,000, it's obvious why the Azerbaijani's were forced to sign a ceasefire. Their initial goal was to liberate the entire enclave, however despite all their efforts, they have barely "liberated" 5% of the territory. Their territorial gains are minor and indecisive. All of their gains could easily be reversed at any time since their forces are surrounded by enemy units in a mountainous terrain without constant air support.

In the long run, Erdogan has a faltering economy that is worsening by the day and thousands of restless, radical militants that are restless and just as much of a threat to Turkey as they are to its enemies. Billions have been spent with minor, inconsequential gains all across the board. Turkey is actually in a very precarious situation right now.

Erdogan is currently embroiled in 3 warzones stretching from the Caucasus to north Africa. If the SAA, Armenians, LNA/Egyptians were to act in unison and launch major counter attacks all at once, Turkey's resources would be strained and they could easily lose all of their gains.

So far the SAA are planning a major offensive in Idlib in the new year. The Armenians are determined and are constantly being resupplied with weapons. In my opinion, if Egypt and the LNA were to launch a major offensive tomorrow, they would inevitably be victorious.

Egypt by itself has a formidable airforce, air defenses, missiles and a few thousand Abram tanks. Add to that the LNA and I don't see Turkey or the LNA being able to win. The only thing separating Egypt from Libya is a line in the sand that doesn't really exist. Turkey meanwhile has to send forces and supplies across the Mediterranean.

Erdogan is playing a truly dangerous juggling game. He's playing with fire. One wrong move could leap to ruin and calamity. Unlike Iran, Turkey doesn't have massive natural resources to fall back on. Their economic situation is worsening and there really isn't any way out for them. Iran is planning to reform their currency soon but Turkey, they've already slashed 6 zeros from the Lira in 2005. Erdogan has truly dug himself into a hole with no way out. Only time will tell what the future holds but I don't see a bright future for Turkey or Erdogan anytime soon.

Turkish export is 170bln$ and import is 210bln$----a trade deficit of -40bln$ which must be financed by dollars coming into Turkey from Foreign Direct investments and foreign loans.

Now, this trade deficit situation can't last forever especially since foreign debt is already huge and FDI dries up---devaluation of lira is inevitable due to balance of payment problems

Currently, Turkey protects the value of lira by exhausting Central bank's forex reserves---they exhausted 65bln$ of their forex reserves to protect lira and their forex reserves stand today at only 41bln$ (compared to 107bln$ in 2017)

Now, as forex reserves are exhausted Turkey will have no other choice but to devalue lira even further.

Devaluation of lira will result in rise of inflation (as import becomes more expensive).

Rise in inflation will force Central bank of Turkey to increase interest rate in order to fight inflation.

Increase of interest rate will make credit more expensive and will result in recession.

Foreign investors will withdraw their money from Turkey due to worsening economic conditions and this capital outflow will devalue Turkish currency even further.

Because many companies and households in Turkey have big debts in dollars while income in lira---devaluation of currency will result in inability of households and companies to service their dollar debts----so defaults and bank failures in few years are to be expected

So, probably, Turkey will experience economic crises and recession in few years...

Now, economic crises will raise questions about political future of Erdogan.

Economic crises might force Erdogan to start a neo-Ottoman war in the Middle East, Caucasus or Eastern Mediterranean in order to distract his people's attention from domestic problems------so expect Turkey becoming more aggressive in the next few years

(also note that Putin started a war in Syria after devaluation of Russian ruble and recession in 2014 --and after this his approval rating increased dramatically )