So after marathon negotiations in Moscow (10 hours) it appears as if both sides have agreed to a ceasefire. Only time will tell if this ceasefire will hold however.
Aliyev is trying to portray these latest clashes as a major victory. However if the military operation was going as smoothly as he claims and if it was as successful as he claims then why agree to a ceasefire ?
Looking at the big picture, Azerbaijan's military tried to capture the entire Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) region. The Azeris attempted a multi pronged offensive, trying to push forward and progress along the entire front.
They however had limited success, gaining a tiny chunk of territory in the north and a few villages along the border shared with Iran in the south.
The operation could be considered a minor victory if the Azeri side had not sustained a high number of casualties. However it seems as if they have indeed sustained major losses, both in manpower and material.
There are two competing narratives in this conflict, so there's no telling who's telling the truth and who's lying or exaggerating. However the fact of the matter is that Azerbaijan refuses to reveal KIA (killed in action) numbers and they have been caught faking evidence on multiple occasions.
According to the website https://www.lostarmour.info/karabakh/
which verifies losses of armour and weapons based on photo / video evidence, the Armenians losses account for 2/3rd whereas the Azerbaijani losses account for 1/3rd
Of course the website doesn't account for all the videos which show piles and even truck loads of Azerbaijni corpses or vice versa, although I must say that when it comes to that kind of material the vast majority shows Azerbaijani soldiers deceased.
It should also be noted that the Azeri side has been caught faking evidence on multiple occasions. This includes the pipeline attacks and power station attacks which the Azeris tried to blame on the Armenian side.
In any case, both sides will soon exchange their dead so in the coming days we might get a better idea. Also both sides might use this opportunity to regroup, although with winter approaching, who knows.
According to the Armenians, a few days ago, they claimed that Azerbaijan had lost well over 3000 soldiers / mercenaries, 300+ tanks, apcs, ifvs, trucks, 100+ aircraft including UAV, loitering munitions, helicopters, etc
Interestingly enough, there hasn't been much footage of the remnants of aircrafts that were shot down. However lately Azerbaijan has been releasing much less UAV footage than they were releasing at the start of the conflict. Also, the shift of focus from military targets to civilians after the first few days, in my mind is a tell a tale sign of frustration on the part of Azerbaijan.
At the end of the day, even if half of the Armenian claims regarding Azeri casualties are true, it's still quite devastating. The Azeri army numbers only 50,000. Assuming 3000 KIA and double that number injured, that's close to 20% of Azerbaijans entire fighting force. Again even half, 10% killed or injured in approximately 1 week of fighting, is quite a blow to any army.
Perhaps with another 5000-10,000 more Turkish backed mercenaries and a dozen or more Turkish TB2 UAV's they could have more success ? On the other hand, the Armenians, if they're intelligent, will pressure Russia to hand over those SU-30's they have on order. Currently the Armenian air force has 4 SU-30s active and 8 more on order.
The Armenians should also work on producing BVR weaponry for their fighter jets, better radar for their S-300 batteries, more air defense systems, electronic warfare systems, ATGMs, MANPADS, armor piercing rounds, mobile artillery. It would also be prudent for them to procure a large number of their own UAVs and loitering munitions for the next round of fighting.
In the meantime they should be putting a serious emphasis on building more decoy weapons in order to waste the other sides UAV resources and they should be digging underground tunnels and bunkers like there's no tomorrow.
Of course as I've mentioned before, Iran could easily provide the Armenians with all the weapons they require and at a cheaper price than the Russians. If the Turks are making money on this conflict and so are the Russians then why not Iran. Of course, Armenia, just like Iran in the region, has to try and play a tricky balancing act, trying to simultaneously benefit from all sides while not upsetting the other players in the region too much.
Of course, as always only time will tell.
Aliyev is trying to portray these latest clashes as a major victory. However if the military operation was going as smoothly as he claims and if it was as successful as he claims then why agree to a ceasefire ?
Looking at the big picture, Azerbaijan's military tried to capture the entire Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) region. The Azeris attempted a multi pronged offensive, trying to push forward and progress along the entire front.
They however had limited success, gaining a tiny chunk of territory in the north and a few villages along the border shared with Iran in the south.
The operation could be considered a minor victory if the Azeri side had not sustained a high number of casualties. However it seems as if they have indeed sustained major losses, both in manpower and material.
There are two competing narratives in this conflict, so there's no telling who's telling the truth and who's lying or exaggerating. However the fact of the matter is that Azerbaijan refuses to reveal KIA (killed in action) numbers and they have been caught faking evidence on multiple occasions.
According to the website https://www.lostarmour.info/karabakh/
which verifies losses of armour and weapons based on photo / video evidence, the Armenians losses account for 2/3rd whereas the Azerbaijani losses account for 1/3rd
Of course the website doesn't account for all the videos which show piles and even truck loads of Azerbaijni corpses or vice versa, although I must say that when it comes to that kind of material the vast majority shows Azerbaijani soldiers deceased.
It should also be noted that the Azeri side has been caught faking evidence on multiple occasions. This includes the pipeline attacks and power station attacks which the Azeris tried to blame on the Armenian side.
In any case, both sides will soon exchange their dead so in the coming days we might get a better idea. Also both sides might use this opportunity to regroup, although with winter approaching, who knows.
According to the Armenians, a few days ago, they claimed that Azerbaijan had lost well over 3000 soldiers / mercenaries, 300+ tanks, apcs, ifvs, trucks, 100+ aircraft including UAV, loitering munitions, helicopters, etc
Interestingly enough, there hasn't been much footage of the remnants of aircrafts that were shot down. However lately Azerbaijan has been releasing much less UAV footage than they were releasing at the start of the conflict. Also, the shift of focus from military targets to civilians after the first few days, in my mind is a tell a tale sign of frustration on the part of Azerbaijan.
At the end of the day, even if half of the Armenian claims regarding Azeri casualties are true, it's still quite devastating. The Azeri army numbers only 50,000. Assuming 3000 KIA and double that number injured, that's close to 20% of Azerbaijans entire fighting force. Again even half, 10% killed or injured in approximately 1 week of fighting, is quite a blow to any army.
Perhaps with another 5000-10,000 more Turkish backed mercenaries and a dozen or more Turkish TB2 UAV's they could have more success ? On the other hand, the Armenians, if they're intelligent, will pressure Russia to hand over those SU-30's they have on order. Currently the Armenian air force has 4 SU-30s active and 8 more on order.
The Armenians should also work on producing BVR weaponry for their fighter jets, better radar for their S-300 batteries, more air defense systems, electronic warfare systems, ATGMs, MANPADS, armor piercing rounds, mobile artillery. It would also be prudent for them to procure a large number of their own UAVs and loitering munitions for the next round of fighting.
In the meantime they should be putting a serious emphasis on building more decoy weapons in order to waste the other sides UAV resources and they should be digging underground tunnels and bunkers like there's no tomorrow.
Of course as I've mentioned before, Iran could easily provide the Armenians with all the weapons they require and at a cheaper price than the Russians. If the Turks are making money on this conflict and so are the Russians then why not Iran. Of course, Armenia, just like Iran in the region, has to try and play a tricky balancing act, trying to simultaneously benefit from all sides while not upsetting the other players in the region too much.
Of course, as always only time will tell.
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