Has this been confirmed or is it just speculation ?
It's quite obvious that this is most probably some cheap propaganda. The video proves exactly nothing, it could be showing anything anywhere and could have been recorded practically anytime since the invention of film cameras.
On the other hand, we know for sure that the global anti-Iran propaganda apparatus is in overdrive trying to score some cheap points on the back of the poor people dying on both sides of the Karabakh war, in order to feed two types of anti-Iranian narratives:
1) The one peddled by sectarianist and other elements falsely claiming that the "hypocritical Islamic Republic is always siding with non-Muslims against Muslims in wars".
2) Domestic pan-Turkist separatist narratives. Here the propaganda is hoping to fuel resentment against the IR amongst Azari-speaking Iranians.
Just take a look at the Turkish press (media like the state-owned TRT, for instance), soon to be followed, I am sure, by RFE/RL, the BBC and Manoto and so on: they're already flooding the airwaves and the internet with this old and tired propaganda narrative.
It is also entirely possible that someone did or will blow up some random truck (military or non-military) verifiably located in north-western Iran, but then falsely claim that the vehicle was "carrying arms to Armenia" when in fact no such thing was happening.
They're desperate to illustrate their propaganda with some visual material to be used as "Twitter proof" for their claims.
could have just as easily been an industrial accident. It's not like those are rare in Iran ?
Not just in Iran, such accident are frequent enough accross the planet.
No. Armenia should weaken Azerbayjan and liberate more lands if possible. Armenia is not a mossad-paradise unlike Azerbayjan (who recently condemned Yemeni Houthi resistance). Armenia is trustable neighbour and has no claims against Iran.
What you say is still pretty accurate, however and unfortunately, since 2018 some new challenges have arisen in Armenia. A US-funded colored revolution took place which resulted in long-time Armenian president Serj Sarkisian, a reliable partner to Iran, being replaced by a certain Nikol Pashinyan.
Compared to its predecessor, the present Armenian administration has sought to move somewhat towards the US, without compromising its traditional ties to Moscow. Behind Washington, the shadow of the zionist apartheid entity is looming, despite the historically often strained relations between them and the Armenians.
Of course, nothing to panic about for now. Armenia is aware that as a landlocked, small nation surrounded for the most part by big players and by an outright hostile neighbour it has repeatedly been at war with, it's not in its interest to antagonize Iran.
However from the zio-American perspective, the 2018 colored revolution was conducted partly with the hope of managing to drive some wedges between Erevan and Tehran. For now this hope has largely been vain, but Iran should monitor all developments there.
