Agreed but one does not simply develop a nuclear bomb in 21 century . Specially when you signed NPT . High security/economic prices .The best choice is exactly what we are doing right now .
1- Make world powers accept Iran's enrichment right so we can guarantee that our facilities will be intact and untouchable from any hit ( even a hit from nutjobyahoo )
2- Get rid of sanctions
3 - Develop new generation of centrifuges ( Which we are permitted according to the framework )
4 - And finally , after a decade , Install 35000 Ir-8 machines ( 1 IR-8 = 24 IR-1 machines ) and it means just 48 hours to get a warhead .
Meanwhile (this is my suggestion lol ) Iran should develop a nuclear submarine/ship because nuclear submarines use weapons grade uranium as fuel (enriched up to 70% , 80% and even 90% ) So we can stay as a NPT signatory , and at the same time we will be permitted to store weapons grade uranium .
That's exactly why Brazil is making one
Check it out :
برزیل زیردریایی اتمی میسازد - سایت خبری تحلیلی تابناك|اخبار ایران و جهان|TABNAK
What is Brazil Up to with its Nuclear Policy? by Travis Stalcup | Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
".......... the propulsion reactors in Brazil’s submarines would require a higher degree of uranium enrichment than those for commercial power, possibly
above 90 percent. Brazilian Ambassador to the United States Roberto Abdenu remarked that “
submarines are not subject to the [IAEA] safeguards regime.” This interpretation provides Brazil the capability
to enrich weapons-grade uranium and develop a full fuel cycle outside of international scrutiny and without violating its agreements, such as the Treaty of Tlatelolco ..... "
Rahii Jaan this a long post so read it when you are free and are bothered to read
I agree with what you said 100%. The only thing that is bothering me is this talk from some people in Iran that they will never develop nukes. They say Nukes are against Islam and pass fatwas against them etc? I am not sure how true this whole fatwa story was but I hope it is all just talk to reduce tensions. In reality, there is nothing, not even religion that prevent Iran from developing nukes...using them is another story, but no Iran will ever condone using them, however, our enemies are not sane people, they will use nukes if they can get away with it as they have done in the past. Suppose the American completely destroyed Japan using nukes...today they would be acting like nothing happened and claiming "it was done to stop ww2".
Iran is not some banana state. Iran was the first super power on earth and should develop all weapons for our security.
As you said, what we need to do now is develop the economy. Iran needs to follow the "resistant economy" pathway by pushing to become a true industrial power relying on fully indigenous capabilities. Once we produce everything important we need internally, sanctions would mean jack. sanctions only work when we really need the outside world..i.e needing them to buy our oil, needing them for medical supplies etc.
There is alot of work to be done but I think we should not sell even one drop of crude oil. Instead we need to develop our petrochemical industry to sell products made from crude, that way, the prices will not be so politically manipulated by the likes of OPEC...that way these petrochemical product will help our own industry and earn us alot more cash than selling simply crude oil. Fortunately, it seem Iran is making good moves in this regard.
We are also facing a large desertification problem. Matter of fact, I think this desertification is the biggest problem we face. Thus, Iran needs to spend lots of funding, I am talking 10s of billion in desalination projects to bring freshwater into Iran from Persian gulf and create artificial lakes, etc, then we can use these water for farming and crop growing. We can then become exporter of food! This is extremely important and a very ambitious move...but sadly I don't see the Iranian officials moving in such direction...it's like they're oblivious to this desertification!
Finally, I think IR-8 is good but we need more advance. They stated it has a SWU output of 24, but this in theory, it would in all possibility be quite less. I heard sources say it will be around swu of 16. In any case, what I am looking forward to is ones around swu of 50 and 100. If Iran needs wants to have 20 nuke reactor and wants to have capability to enrich fuel for all of them , then we need 190,000 swu x 20 = 3.8 million swu. Assuming IR-8 had a swu of 20, thus we would need 190,000 of them. That's why we need next gen centrifuges...so we need to make less centrifuges, meaning we need smaller facilities, meaning we can have them deeper under ground!
By the way, why is Iran's centrifuge manufacturing low? from 2003 to 2010 we went from 190 to 19,000 centrifuges. this to me seems very slow! is it politically motivated? we should be able to make many more than that, I am talking 100,000 in a year...this is how much the likes of Russia can make a year if I am not mistaken. We need proper industrial scale nuclear program. I am not saying Iran should make that many a year, but we should have the capability. By the way, 190,000 IR-8 means Iran could develop an entire arsenal of nukes in a snap of fingers
By the way, bro, will Iran be able to develop more advance centrifuges after Ir-8 if there is a deal? From what I understood, it seemed zarif was hinting at only being able to develop the Ir-8 and nothing after that!
I think this deal is BS and will not really offer much to Iran.
Even if the sanctions are lifted and we can export more oil, that will just decrease oil prices lower! and thus counter us selling more oil! The other Opec members will not reduce their output of oil any time soon! Best way forward is the resistance economy! Iran needs to find ways to trade with other nations using non dollar currencies and find alternatives to swift. Lifting of sanctions will not have the effect of what most people seem to think! Matter of fact, I can see alot more negatives than positives with lifting of sanctions! such as opening Iran up so leaches come in and suck on Iran.
Unfortunately, for Iran there are still incompetent people in charge of alot of sectors. This needs to change. If the management system changes, the effect of sanction can be neutralised over time.
A few years ago, in a nuclear deal, our enemies would not have allowed any enrichment,whereas today they are allowing this right...this is not because they have become nicer, it's because our programs has expanded so they can't ask for those excessive demand. What we should do, if there is no deal, is expand our program much more, so in the next negotiations (if there is any), our enemies will not be able to ask for the demand they are asking for today!
If there is no deal then:
1- enrichment should be made to 60% (using nuclear submarine as an excuse)
2- make more plutonium reactor like arak, there are many uses for plutonium such as batteries for space rovers etc.
3- make much more advance centrifuges with swu of 50 and 100 etc..
4- make reprocessing facilities for separating plutonium from our spent fuel, this one is risky because for this, we need our own uranium ores as no-one will sell us uranium if we will reprocess it. Thus this one, is quite risky and politically unlikely.
5- Make more fordo like facilities but even deeper so the enemies cannot even talk about bunker busters (like they are now with that new bunker buster). But this required much more advance centrifuges, as the more swu our centrifuges can deliver the less of them we need, thus smaller facilities and hence easier to make such facilities deeper and deeper.
