Iranian Air Defense Systems

[TheImmortal]

Fortunately the DF-21 is easier to intercept than the DF-3. Both are non-terminally guided, the DF-3 is just faster.
One reason for the S-300PMU2 are just those two... However it is likely that the DF-3 was already phased out.

DF-21 is terminally guided (active radar gudiance + gps).

DF-3 is too risky for SA to use as it can only be used on cities or very large military bases due to poor accuracy (it was designed to carry nuke).

 

[PeeD]

I highly doubt that Chinese sold their special, terminally guided variants to the Saudis. Alone the benefit of a very much easier to operate solid fuel missile would be enough an argument.

 

[Navigator]

China sold to Saudi Arabia the early version of the DF-21 - without terminal guiding.

 

[TheImmortal]

China sold to Saudi Arabia the early version of the DF-21 - without terminal guiding.

GPS guidance kits are fairly easy to procure. All Saudi Arabia had to was pay their puppet Pakistan to modify the warheads with a guidance kit. Since the amount of missiles is relatively low (under 100), it can be done.

 

[skyshadow]

 

[Russel]

GPS guidance kits are fairly easy to procure. All Saudi Arabia had to was pay their puppet Pakistan to modify the warheads with a guidance kit. Since the amount of missiles is relatively low (under 100), it can be done.

It can not be that simple for Ballistic missile. It’s not air launched bomb or rocket! Pls study more. Thanks.

 

[TheImmortal]

It can not be that simple for Ballistic missile. It’s not air launched bomb or rocket! Pls study more. Thanks.

I didn’t say it was easy, but Pakistan has extensive experience in Ballistic Missile warhead design/modification.

Saudi Arabia doesn’t have a shortage of cash to throw to have them design a better warhead guidance system.

Lastly, the DF-3 was seen as widely useless by SA during the first gulf war when a Saddam was firing SCUDs. SA knew the DF-3 poor accuracy ment it would cause high civilian casualties if it were used against Saddam. Hence why years later they opted for a more advanced missile (DF-21) to provide the ability to accurately target Iranian critical infrastructure in a period of war (oil facilities/air bases/etc).

The US allowed the sale as long as the missiles were modified to not allow to carry nuclear payload.

So I wouldn’t underestimate the DF-21’s that SA has.

 

[raptor22]

I didn’t say it was easy, but Pakistan has extensive experience in Ballistic Missile warhead design/modification.

Saudi Arabia doesn’t have a shortage of cash to throw to have them design a better warhead guidance system.

Lastly, the DF-3 was seen as widely useless by SA during the first gulf war when a Saddam was firing SCUDs. SA knew the DF-3 poor accuracy ment it would cause high civilian casualties if it were used against Saddam. Hence why years later they opted for a more advanced missile (DF-21) to provide the ability to accurately target Iranian critical infrastructure in a period of war (oil facilities/air bases/etc).

The US allowed the sale as long as the missiles were modified to not allow to carry nuclear payload.

So I wouldn’t underestimate the DF-21’s that SA has.

I have a Q ... Have you heard of any test or firing these missile in any sort of way? drill? by Saudis ? just showing them in a military parade ... how does it possible to have a weapon and never test it to see if it fits in bigger picture of your military doctrine against your arch enemy? or they did it but has not got public.

 

[TheImmortal]

I have a Q ... Have you heard of any test or firing these missile in any sort of way? drill? by Saudis ? just showing them in a military parade ... how does it possible to have a weapon and never test it to see if it fits in bigger picture of your military doctrine against your arch enemy? or they did it but has not got public.

DF-21 is an extensively tested missile by China, so unlike brand new designs by Iran (Sejil-2). These missiles were already tested during development by China.

Nonetheless, SA could have conducted routine tests and not announce it. In Iran’s case even if they don’t announce their own missile test, chances are US intelligence will detect it (even test engine burns) and announce it to the world to put pressure on Iran. However, given SA has a small amount of missiles it cannot test them extensively without depleting supply.

The missiles arent a big part of SA defense doctrine like it is for Iran. SA has US military umbrella and a very large airforce.

This was just SA trying to achieve deterrence with small amount of missiles. They want to be able to say to tell Iran “if you hit me, I will hit you”. SA will likely strike oil facilities and major high value targets.

Without a major ABM system, Iran is currently very vulnerable to BM strikes. Luckily it is developing Bavar-373 to also be able to take an ABM role. However, it will eventually want to have a dedicated ABM system if it thinks SA is moving towards a domestic BM program.

Currently and in near future, SA cannot hope to engage Iran in a Missile war. Iran simply has a massive arsenal. Thus it is primarily for deterrence and strikes against HVT during a major escalation.

 

[VEVAK]

I have a Q ... Have you heard of any test or firing these missile in any sort of way? drill? by Saudis ? just showing them in a military parade ... how does it possible to have a weapon and never test it to see if it fits in bigger picture of your military doctrine against your arch enemy? or they did it but has not got public.

Saudi DF-3's simply lack the accuracy to hit anything for example if they were to fire 20 of them at Shahid Beheshti Airbase 19 out of 20 will more likely than not fail to hit anything of worth and it's doubtful the Saudi's would wanna bother with the upkeep and training of a liquid fuel missile like that let alone an inaccurate one.

Now DF-21's are a different story since they are solid fuel it is more likely the type of missile the Saudi's wanted to have to build Silo's around and most likely than not they paid the Americans to build them the Silo's and preprogram targets for them. (Basically Americans likely got paid to have a peak inside DF-21's & at the same time got to insure that the missiles only target Iran....)
In that case the Americans likely simplified everything for them so they'd be able to launch them with limited personal, limited equipment and relatively basic training and in that case the missiles will have the accuracy to be useful against known fixed high value targets but at the end of the day Saudi's simply can't launch enough of them for it to be a game changer
and at the same time the Americans will likely wanna ensure their continued fighter jet sales to Saudi Arabia (They'd likely make the total cost of a single launch so costly that it wouldn't make much sense for wide use....)

 

[PeeD]

Saudis would use DF-21 as counter-value assets again cities.
I think they have phased out the DF-3 because they openly paraded their former most-strategic asset. Keeping personell trained on such liquids is difficult.

They have got two DF-21 variants, both almost certainly terminally unguided and not even able to make any corrections after boost termination.
As boost terminated solid, it would have a CEP of 300m in the best case, more likely 500-1000m.

They and Israeli MRBMs were the main reason why the IRGC did everything possible in the 90's to get the S-300... and they were more successful than many think.
Now with the PMU2 we have two systems protecting Tehran directly designed to intercept such DF-21 like missiles sold to the Saudis. As said, the DF-3 would be a more difficult target due to its higher speeds.

PS: Chinese do the difficult BM related work in Saudi Arabia.

 

[TheImmortal]

Saudis would use DF-21 as counter-value assets again cities.
I think they have phased out the DF-3 because they openly paraded their former most-strategic asset. Keeping personell trained on such liquids is difficult.

They have got two DF-21 variants, both almost certainly terminally unguided and not even able to make any corrections after boost termination.
As boost terminated solid, it would have a CEP of 300m in the best case, more likely 500-1000m.

They and Israeli MRBMs were the main reason why the IRGC did everything possible in the 90's to get the S-300... and they were more successful than many think.
Now with the PMU2 we have two systems protecting Tehran directly designed to intercept such DF-21 like missiles sold to the Saudis. As said, the DF-3 would be a more difficult target due to its higher speeds.

PS: Chinese do the difficult BM related work in Saudi Arabia.

Peed you are a very knowledgeable member of the forum but I disagree.

1) SA changed from DF-3 due to accuracy issue and the fact they wished not to cause civilian casualties in Gulf War. SA using BMs to attack innocent civilians during Iran war would be TERRIBLE PRESS and possibly a war crime.

2) SA did not buy DF-21 till 2007, which invalidates your point that IRGC sought S-300 against it in the 90’s.

3) There is no version of DF-21 with “500-1000m” CEP. The prototype had 300m cep but was never mass produced.

DF-21-A in 1996 was mass produced and had CEP of 100-300M. By 2006 DF-21C was unveiled with a CEP of around 30 meters

Intresting enough a YEAR LATER, SA signs a deal with China. The missile they have in their possession is likely DF-21C.

Iran Intelligence services likely knows the version beyond a reasonable doubt so that’s all that matters.

 

[PeeD]

Peed you are a very knowledgeable member of the forum but I disagree.

Thanks, you are welcome to disagree.

1) SA changed from DF-3 due to accuracy issue and the fact they wished not to cause civilian casualties in Gulf War. SA using BMs to attack innocent civilians during Iran war would be TERRIBLE PRESS and possibly a war crime.

After Iran got it's "counter-value" SCUD-Cs in the 80's, it could already retaliate against eastern Saudi Arabia if necessary. To counter that, Saudi Arabia wanted something that could strike Tehran in a counter-value "war of the cities" scenario.
I don't know how much they gave to the Chinese but it was enough to make them sell DF-3 MRBMs, especially after the "Nodong" Shahab-3 was on the horizon.

All of the missiles of that generation were for counter value purposes: If the enemy hit your civilians, you can hit theirs.
Fueling and setting up the DF-3 made it so vulnerable and difficult/costly to operate that Saudis just wanted something easier and more survivable. Compared to the 1000's meters magnitude CEP of the DF-3, the around 500m CEP of the DF-21 was of course a benefit.

2) SA did not buy DF-21 till 2007, which invalidates your point that IRGC sought S-300 against it in the 90’s.

DF-3 and Jericho series were the reason for that.

3) There is no version of DF-21 with “500-1000m” CEP. The prototype had 300m cep but was never mass produced.

DF-21-A in 1996 was mass produced and had CEP of 100-300M. By 2006 DF-21C was unveiled with a CEP of around 30 meters

Intresting enough a YEAR LATER, SA signs a deal with China. The missile they have in their possession is likely DF-21C.

Iran Intelligence services likely knows the version beyond a reasonable doubt so that’s all that matters.

The DF-21C has high strategic value for China, they would not even sell it or it's technology to Pakistan.
They sold higher solid booster technology to Pakistan e.g.

Physics tell us that DF-21A and Sejil-1/2 class solid fuel MRBMs which are unguided/uncorrected after RV separation/boost termination, can't hit more accurately than around 300m.
It is even well likely that the Chinese developed lower grade export variant of the DF-21A for the Saudis, plus what appears a reduced warhead variant to come closer to the DF-3 range class.
So they will never sell their current top technologies to a US-ally and they will develop special, downgraded variants or improved range variants.
In 2007 the Chinese likely got international ok to just keep Saudi capability level by selling them something equivalent to their DF-3 capability. That probably means no object attack capability, only area attack like the DF-3 (CEP towards 1000m), no longer range and no critical technologies like a large, single, flex-nozzle or even filament casings.

This fortunately means for Iran that what they got for defense against the DF-3 will remain effective against Saudi DF-21. The Chinese once broke a technology barrier by selling the Saudis the DF-3, and booster technology for the Shahin-2 to Pakistan... in 2007 as a more responsible China, they would avoid to break another strategic technology barrier.

 

[AmirPatriot]

DF-3 is a 1970’s liquid rocket with very poor accuracy and likely has a predictable trajectory. So no it’s not “very hard” to intercept.

It's damn near an IRBM. Even if it does not manoeuvre, the very high speeds it reaches can make interception very difficult, especially when you're trying to do it with anti-aircraft missiles which likely don't have the specialised warheads and advanced electronics needed to intercept a ballistic missile. They're designed to deal with aircraft going at max mach 2, not mach 15+.

Lastly, your Israel example is preposterous in that it assumes Israel will nuke Iran which is just fantasy. Israel nuking Iran will be the end of Israel itself as Israel cannot survive a nuclear strike while Iran can survive several.

I'm just hypothesising. It's a capability that the enemy has, so it should be considered.

However it is likely that the DF-3 was already phased out

I've heard some reports of this, but I think I still see them at Saudi missile bases on google earth. They look like they're stored out in the open in conspicuous looking shelters. They could possibly be reactivated in the event of war.

20°42'13.85"N 45°35'39.31"E

These shelters could just be normal accommodation or support buildings, but they definitely look suspicious.

1) SA changed from DF-3 due to accuracy issue and the fact they wished not to cause civilian casualties in Gulf War. SA using BMs to attack innocent civilians during Iran war would be TERRIBLE PRESS and possibly a war crime.

No-one didn't seem to mind when Saddam rained down Scuds on Tehran.

 

[TheImmortal]

Thanks, you are welcome to disagree.



After Iran got it's "counter-value" SCUD-Cs in the 80's, it could already retaliate against eastern Saudi Arabia if necessary. To counter that, Saudi Arabia wanted something that could strike Tehran in a counter-value "war of the cities" scenario.
I don't know how much they gave to the Chinese but it was enough to make them sell DF-3 MRBMs, especially after the "Nodong" Shahab-3 was on the horizon.

All of the missiles of that generation were for counter value purposes: If the enemy hit your civilians, you can hit theirs.
Fueling and setting up the DF-3 made it so vulnerable and difficult/costly to operate that Saudis just wanted something easier and more survivable. Compared to the 1000's meters magnitude CEP of the DF-3, the around 500m CEP of the DF-21 was of course a benefit.



DF-3 and Jericho series were the reason for that.



The DF-21C has high strategic value for China, they would not even sell it or it's technology to Pakistan.
They sold higher solid booster technology to Pakistan e.g.

Physics tell us that DF-21A and Sejil-1/2 class solid fuel MRBMs which are unguided/uncorrected after RV separation/boost termination, can't hit more accurately than around 300m.
It is even well likely that the Chinese developed lower grade export variant of the DF-21A for the Saudis, plus what appears a reduced warhead variant to come closer to the DF-3 range class.
So they will never sell their current top technologies to a US-ally and they will develop special, downgraded variants or improved range variants.
In 2007 the Chinese likely got international ok to just keep Saudi capability level by selling them something equivalent to their DF-3 capability. That probably means no object attack capability, only area attack like the DF-3 (CEP towards 1000m), no longer range and no critical technologies like a large, single, flex-nozzle or even filament casings.

This fortunately means for Iran that what they got for defense against the DF-3 will remain effective against Saudi DF-21. The Chinese once broke a technology barrier by selling the Saudis the DF-3, and booster technology for the Shahin-2 to Pakistan... in 2007 as a more responsible China, they would avoid to break another strategic technology barrier.

You make very good points.

However...

Russia has sold SU-35 to Bahrain, PAK-FA 5th gen technology to India, etc. but refuses to even sell SU-30 to Iran. Why? Because again Banana countries are not a threat to Russia or its arms industry. Same applies to China. Russia is in the process of selling highly advancd S-400 to Turkey (a major NATO country).

So yes China can sell Saudi Arabia advanced weaponry (export) versions of its air planes or BMs even though it’s a major US ally because it knows SA is a banana country that will not reverse engineer the technology.

Whatever technology the export versions contains, China is well content for the US to examine to hearts desire. It’s the same if the US/Israel got its hands on Fateh-110 Missile. Just because you can see the underbelly of technology doesn’t mean you can stop it.

In the case of Iran and Pakistan, China does not have any assurances that this would not happen. Fundamentally it is one of the reasons (besides sanctions) that Russia/China do not engage in advanced arms deals with Iran. They know Iran is only after technology/design it hasn’t fully mastered on its own.